Huntington 21JUN2007 1993 -What is a civilization? -Why will civilizations war? Clash of Civilizations -evolution of conflict -Princes states Ideologies Civilizations -Argument: International relations is beginning to move out of its West-centered phase What is a Civilization? -A social identity reflecting the highest cultural grouping and the broadest level of identity -Roman Italian Catholic Christian European Westerner Civilization Fault Lines -Western -Confucian -Japanese -Islamic -Hindu -Slavic-Orthodox -Latin American -African "Torn" Countries -Not all countries fall into a single civilization --Turkey --Mexico Problems with Clash Theory -Conflates Arab and Islam -Inconsistent --Arabs, Chinese, and Westerners, however, are not part of any broader cultural entity." --"Islam has its Arab, Turkic and Malay subdivisions." -What about civilization is war-like? -Fundamentalists are middle class -All people belong to a culture, so why don't they war all of the time Realism and the Modern World -"Power politics" -Is Realism a way of formulating theory or policy? --Can ideas in definition become preferences in action? -What is power? --answer: capacity
The changing character of world power -decreased utility of military power -increased importance of technology, education, and economic growth -Military spending: --opportunity costs --peace dividend --"Guns vs. butter" National security vs. Human security -The higher the military expenditure, the more armed conflict -As spending goes up, so do --disease --illiteracy --poverty Weapons Trade -Spurred by Cold War -peaked in 1987 at Billion $82 -Middle East and Asia are major recipients -Middle East arms race: regional rivalries -United States is leading supplier -Military-industrial complex -blowback Nuclear Weapons -About 22 states and groups seek nukes -Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty -horizontal proliferation -vertical proliferation -United states rejected Comprehensive Test Ban treaty in 1998 -tensions between India and Pakistan -MIRVs -non-lethal weapons: -smart bombs -Strategic weapons A quick history of realpolitik -Compllence: when US was dominant nuclear power -brinkmanship: John Foster Dulles threatened adversaries with nuclear war -Counter-value targeting: Soviet industry and population (as opposed to counterforce targeting of weapons) -Cuban Missile Crisis
Mutual Deterrence -requires second-strike capability -Capability, commitment, credibility, communication -MAD -Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUTs): advocated by some Americans: nuclear weapons could not be used in war -Strategic Defense Initiative: President Reagan's "Star Wars" Where are we now? -Bush doctrine: --Unabashed unilateralism --a record $667 billion on defense in 2006 --sticky power Resurgence of Realpolitik in 2001: Realism in Action -January: no on ICC -March 28: abandon Kyoto -May 1: abrogate ABMT from 1972 -July 21: Ignore UN conference to stop illegal trafficking of small arms -July 25: rejection of proposed enforcement for 1972 BWC Explaining International Relations Realism -Key tenets of realism --Focus: International conflict --Actors: states --Goal: survival and power --Organization: anarchy and self-help --Tools: force --sources of change: balance of power