topic7-class-presentation-Ghg
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topic7-class-presentation-Ghg

Course Number: LAND 685, Fall 2008

College/University: Texas A&M

Word Count: 577

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An Alternative Approach to Establishing Trade-offs among Greenhouse Gases Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels Nature, Vol 410, 675-677 (2001) Presented by Mankeun Kim 1 Outline ! ! ! ! ! ! Global Warming Greenhouse gases Kyoto Protocol Global Warming Potentials Shortcomings of GWPs An Alternative approach based on CGE 2 Global Warming ! ! Earths climate is determined by complex interactions between the...

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Alternative An Approach to Establishing Trade-offs among Greenhouse Gases Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels Nature, Vol 410, 675-677 (2001) Presented by Mankeun Kim 1 Outline ! ! ! ! ! ! Global Warming Greenhouse gases Kyoto Protocol Global Warming Potentials Shortcomings of GWPs An Alternative approach based on CGE 2 Global Warming ! ! Earths climate is determined by complex interactions between the sun, ocean, atmosphere, land and living things. The composition of the atmosphere is important because certain gases absorb heat radiated from the Earths surface (Greenhouse effect). 3 ! ! ! Changes in the composition of the atmosphere alter the intensity of the greenhouse effect Human activities alter the balance. Raising concentrations of greenhouse gases are intensifying Earths natural greenhouse effect. 4 ! As a results, the world is becoming warmer. The global mean surface temperature has increased by over 1 oF (0.6 oC) during the 20th century. ! 5 Impacts of Global Warming ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Increased warming Drought and flash floods Vulnerable ecosystem Water supply Secure food supply Sea-level rise And so on 6 Greenhouse Gases ! ! Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). Human activities add additional quantities of these gases, thereby changing their global average atmospheric concentrations. 7 Causes of Greenhouse Gases ! CO2 ! Combustion of fossil fuels, solid waste & wood Production/transportation of coal, natural gas or oil, Decomposition of organic waste in landfills, Raising of livestock and rice Fertilization, legume, and manure industry activities Combustion of fossil fuels and waste. ! CH4 ! ! ! ! N2O ! ! 8 Kyoto Protocol ! ! In 1997, the first international agreement to LIMIT EMISSIONS was established in Kyoto, Japan. Solving GHG emission problem implies reducing net emissions of GHG and stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at acceptable level. 9 Global Warming Potential ! GHG differ in their to ability absorb heat in the atmosphere. ! ! ! CH4 traps over 21 times more heat than CO2 N2O absorbs 310 times more heat than CO2 HFCs and PFCs are the most heat absorbent. 10 ! ! GWP is the physical measure established to compare emission equivalence of other gases to CO2. GWP is a quantified measure of the globally averaged relative radiative forcing impacts of a particular greenhouse gas through a set of time horizons (see Table 1). 11 Table 1. GWPs Global Warming Potential (years) 20 CO2 CH4 N2O 1 56 280 100 1 21 310 500 1 6.5 170 12 Shortcomings of GWPs ! ! ! The arbitrary choice of time horizon for calculating cumulative radiative forcing. The failure to incorporate damages and abatement costs. GWPs assume that the trade-off ratios remain constant over time. 13 ! ! GWPs assume that they are independent of the ultimate goal. Clearly, neither of these assumptions makes economic sense. 14 Ideal Index ! ! The outcome of an analysis that minimizes the discounted present value of damages and mitigation costs. The alternative proposed extends beyond purely physical considerations in calculating trade-offs among gases 15 MERGE ! ! ! The analysis is based on a CGE model called MERGE. A Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of GHG Reduction Policies Model structure and specification will be discussed in the class. 16 ! ! ! The CGE model calculate the price of the various greenhouse gases. These prices express how much one should be willing to pay to emit an additional ton of each gas. The trade-offs are then relative prices of each gas. 17 Scenarios (Shock to CGE) ! ! The goal of climate policy is to limit the future increase in mean global temperature. Using MERGE, they identify an economically efficient strategy for staying within the limit (or ceiling) 18 ! There are two scenarios ! ! Temperature ceiling 2 oC and 3 oC in absolute temperature change. Additional restriction Decadal temperature change is limited within 10% 19 The Prices of CH4 and N2O relative to that of CO2 20
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