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Qatar News World News Business News Sports News Entertainment Features Young Editors Commentary Editorial Photo Gallery Discussion Forum From Our Archives Search All Sections Local News World Watch Business Briefs Sports Corner Entertainment Free Newsletter e-mail: Contact Us Contact Details Advertising Newspaper Subscribe Letters To The Editor Site Feedback Is Chavez Cubas kingmaker? (By DANIEL P ERIKSON) JUST DAYS BEFORE Fidel Castros ailing health grabbed world headlines, the Cuban leader was Venezuelan President Hugo Chavezs surprise guest at a South American summit in Argentina. The two leaders traveled to the boyhood home of Ernesto Che Guevara, the revolutionary icon. Chavez appeared moved by the visit. For me, he said, it is truly an honor to be here, walking through history. But Chavez has already joined Che where it counts most on billboards in Havana, where the Cuban government lauds its heroes. Chavez is indeed a hero in Cuba, especially to its longtime leader. Over the last seven years, he has become Castros key economic benefactor and political partner. That relationship has stirred concern among US policymakers that Chavez might meddle in the post-Castro transition. Theres no question that he has sufficient leverage in Cuba to potentially influence the choice of the islands next leader and his blessing will certainly be crucial to the next Cuban governments success or failure. Whether he will wield his influence is unknown, and Cuba, of course, is a sovereign nation. But Washingtons worry that he will clearly reverses the conventional wisdom of only a few years ago, when the Venezuelan leader was seen as a creation of Castro.
The sources of Chavezs potential leverage in Cubas transition are multiple. The most important is the oil for services pact that he and Castro signed in October 2000 and that continues to expand. Cuba receives more than 90,000 barrels of Venezuela crude a day at favorable rates of financing in exchange for deploying an estimated 20,000 doctors in Venezuela. Although the presence of Cuban doctors has deepened Chavezs support among his countrys poor, the arrangement has yielded extraordinary benefits for Castro as well. Over the last six years, oil prices have more than tripled, from $20 to about $76 a barrel. Not only has Cuba avoided oil sticker shock, it has received a modest windfall. In 2005, bilateral trade between the two countries reached $2.5bn, including $1.8bn in Venezuelan oil sales to Cuba on deferred financing plans and nonpayment by Cuba is the norm. Cuba and Venezuelas deep security and intelligence cooperation in recent years also contributes to Chavezs influence in Cuba. Chavez has embraced Cuban military doctrine, which includes the development of a 2-million-member Venezuelan reservist force to counter the perceived threat of US aggression. New laws give Cuban officials wide latitude to conduct security activities in Venezuela, and Venezuelan military personnel have cultivated strong relationships with their Cuban counterparts. In the future, the specter of Venezuelan military intervention in Cuba even if farfetched further diminishes the already-negligible enthusiasm US military officials have for a Cuban adventure. Aside from billboards, the Cuban state media covers Chavez as if he were a member of Castros Cabinet. Cuban and Venezuelan flags often appear together at official ceremonies on the island, and the thousands Venezuelans of visiting Cuba for medical treatment or ideological training underscore the bond between the two leaders. Chavezs elder brother, Adan, who until this month was Venezuelan ambassador to Havana, skipped many of the diplomatic functions other foreign embassies depend on for communicating with the Cuban government because he already had direct access to the highest levels of power. During a visit to Caracas last fall, Carlos Lage Davila, Cubas vice president and a potential successor to Castro, raised eyebrows when he declared that we have two presidents: Fidel and Chavez. Hyperbole, yes. But he undoubtedly wanted to communicate his governments gratitude for continued Venezuelan support. Finally, in addition to more than one-third of Cubas doctors, Venezuela is host to thousands of Cuban educators, sports trainers and security personnel. These individuals make up a significant percentage of the well-trained human capital that represents the crown jewel of Cubas socialist revolution. When Castro dies, Chavez will have to decide how to deal with these Cubans in Venezuela. If he sends them home, there may be no jobs for them, which could be socially destabilising. Washington has few tools to counter Chavez in Cuba. In a recent report on the island, the Bush administration concluded that the current regime in Havana is working with like-minded governments, particularly Venezuela, to build a network of political and
financial support designed to forestall any external pressure to change. After Castros surgery was made public, the administration quickly ruled out any dialogue with the new Cuban government, instead continuing the sanctions policy that has left Washington without any effective leverage in Cuban affairs. Still, Washingtons anxiety about Venezuelas influence in a post-Castro Cuba illustrates how completely Chavez occupies center stage in US policy toward Latin America. Over the last several years, the US has elevated Chavezs stature from that of a strictly Venezuelan political phenomenon to one of a continental menace whose maneuverings are responsible corre...