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gw@guardian.co.uk From: Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 10:15 PM To: Bove, Roger Even Subject: Majordomo file: list 'guardian-weekly' file 'gw-international/2006.1.22/8.2.txt' -Colour of revolution in Mongolia turns red again / Inside Asia / Jonathan Watts Another year, another change of government in a former Soviet satellite state in Asia. But unlike the "colour revolutions" that ousted repressive regimes in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan in recent years, last week's shift of power in Mongolia was an icy blast from the totalitarian past. Less than two months after President Bush visited the capital, Ulan Bator, to declare the nation a beacon of democracy, the country's democratic prime minister, Tsakhilganiin Elbegdorj, was ousted by the former communists of the Mongolian People's Revolutionary party (MPRP), which ruled the country for 70 years during the Soviet era. The change of power was carried out legitimately when the MPRP, which controls almost half the seats in parliament, walked out from the ruling coalition. But it has brought thousands of protesters out on the streets - remarkable, given the thick snow and temperatures of -15C - and raised fears that Mongolia could face prolonged political turmoil. In determining the political colour of central Asia, it represents a rare victory against a democratic party, which will be the source of as much relief in Beijing and Moscow as it is a cause of concern for the US. Since the break-up of the eastern bloc, a modern version of the Great Game has been played out in this impoverished region, which has become an increasingly important source of minerals and energy. Geographically and economically Mongolia is on the fringes of this game. A nation twice the size of France with a population of fewer than 2.5 million, its greatest resource is space. Most of its people are nomadic herders, eking out a living in an extreme climate that swings between the summer heat of the Gobi desert and the freezing winters of the steppe. Politically its significance has grown thanks to US backing for a democratically elected government wedged between the world's biggest oligarchies: Russia and China. The outgoing prime was minister among the pro-democracy demonstrators who took to the streets in 1990 to chip away at communism. Since then the electorate has had a right to choose its leaders and seems very keen to exercise it. The turnout in the last election, in 2004, was 77%, down from the 90%-plus registered four years earlier but still high enough to put most western democracies to shame. But this young democracy has been buffeted by frequent changes of government, allegations of official corruption, and public disillusionment at the dire state of the economy. Once one of the world's greatest empires under Genghis Khan, Mongolia is now one of the poorest countries in Asia. Free market reforms - encouraged by the World Bank in the 90s - led to a steep economic slide and the collapse of the social support system for nomads. This forced tens of thousands to move from the pasturelands into cramped housing in Ulan Bator. Despite discoveries of extensive copper and gold deposits in recent years, the main beneficiaries have been government officials and foreign companies, particularly the giant Canadian firm Ivanhoe. Russian and Chinese traders have also made fortunes. In 2004 exports to China grew 58% to $700m. To the alarm of foreign firms and many government officials, Elbegdorj had promised to crack down on corruption and take a share of mining rights for the state. In an emotional address last week to the parliament, he said these plans had prompted the "poisonous" walk-out by the MPRP, which has the closest links to the bureaucracy and big business. The MPRP, which is now trying to form a new coalition government, said it abandoned Elbegdorj because he had not done enough to alleviate poverty despite 10% economic growth last year. It is a blow for the Democrats, the party Elbegdorj heads, but not yet a fatal one. Power shifts are not new in Mongolia. The previous time the Democrats were in power, between 1996 and 2000, four governments were formed in four years. While accepting the decision of parliament, Elbegdorj says he will fight on in elections and street demonstrations. But for now, at least, the colour of revolution in this Asian state is once again red.

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