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- Title: 030123PMR
- Type: Notes
- School: Chester
- Course: ECO 343
- Term: Fall
Polish From: Market Review [pmr@polishmarket.com] Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2003 11:12 AM To: PMR Subscriber Subject: PMR Economic Update No. 84, 23 January 2003 ______________________________________________________________________ **** PMR Economic Update Newsletter **** Date 23 January 2003 Issue No 84 ______________________________________________________________________ Published by: PMR Ltd. Edited by: Dorota Hesse dorota.hesse@polishmarket.com Joanna Nowak joanna.nowak@polishmarket.com ______________________________________________________________________ Copyright (c) 2003 PMR Ltd. All rights reserved. Parts of this newsletter may be reproduced provided that PMR Ltd. (polishmarket.com) is given as the source. Contact us: pmr@polishmarket.com Refer this newsletter to a friend - click http://www.polishmarket.com/tellfriend_news2.html ______________________________________________________________________ IN THIS ISSUE News * Producer prices * Industrial output * Salaries Feature of the week * What is in store for us in 2003? - part II ______________________________________________________________________ Promotional message ################################################################# PMR Ltd. LATEST REPORT Poland 2003-2006: Economic Review & Forecasts ################################################################# Publication date: March 2003 Call +48 (12) 410-21-10 E-mail: pmr@polishmarket.com Click http://www.polishmarket.com/poland_2003_2006.php?id=3467&news=EP to get more info. ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ *** NEWS *** ______________________________________________________________________ * Producer prices 23 January 2003 In December 2002 producer prices were 2.2% up y-o-y. The highest increase was noted in the electricity, gas and water supply sector (6.8%). Construction and assembly prices increased by 0.4%. In the whole 2002 producer prices were 1.0% up y-o-y. The highest increase was noted in the electricity, gas and water supply sector (7.0%). Construction and assembly prices increased by 1.2%. ______________________________________________________________________ * Industrial output 23 January 2003 In December 2002, industrial output was 5.1% up y-o-y. The output of the energy, gas, and water supply sector was 2.1% down on the previous year, while manufacturing production increased by 6.7%, and mining output increased by 2.3%. Construction and assembly output was 10.4% down y-o-y. In the whole 2002, industrial output was 1.5% up y-o-y. The output of the energy, gas, and water supply sector was 0.2% down on the previous year, while manufacturing production increased by 2.1%, and mining output fell by 3.4%. Construction and assembly output was 10.5% down on 2001. ______________________________________________________________________ * Salaries 23 January 2003 The average gross monthly salary in the enterprise sector was PLN2,277.43 in 2002, 3.4% up y-o-y (nominal change). _________________________________________________________________ Promotional message ################################################################# Our new publication ****** Emerging Europe Market Review ****** THE QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW FOR SENIOR MANAGEMENT Click http://www.polishmarket.com/emerging_europe.php to download a free copy ################################################################# ______________________________________________________________________ *** FEATURE OF THE WEEK *** What is in store for us in 2003? - part II ______________________________________________________________________ See also: Polish Market Review, No. 65, p. 11 Continued from the previous issue of Economic Update Public finance reforms may be helped along by positive developments in the global economic situation, which could transfer into better performance of the Polish economy. One of the fundamental assumptions behind the scenario of macroeconomic improvements in Poland in 2003 is the expected acceleration of economic growth in Western Europe. Yet the timid signals of economic revival in these developed countries observed at the beginning of 2002 have lost their momentum. Demand in these countries is extremely moderate and inflationary pressure low. It is therefore no wonder that their GDP growth forecasts are seeing repeated downward corrections. The outlook for 2003 is one of moderate, below-par growth in both the EU (1.7%, from 0.8% in 2002) and the United States (2.5% from 2.3%). Germany, Poland's foremost trade partner, looks likely to face the greatest difficulties climbing out of stagnation. Delay in acceleration of growth in Germany could, of course, have a negative effect on the prospects for Polish exports. Nevertheless, there are some positive signs in Polish foreign trade. Clear growth is continuing and, more importantly, this growth is chiefly due to improvements in sectors involved in the manufacture of highly processed goods. This could prove a positive factor in the long run, since external demand for such goods should be more stable than demand for unprocessed goods, where pricing flexibility can play a key role. This being the case, export performance should remain relatively strong in the quarters ahead, and exports next year will rise at a rate not dissimilar to that in recent years (7-9%). Adjustments to world economic growth forecasts may not make for particularly optimistic expectations for the Polish economy. Recent statistics, however, confirm the slow economic reactivation scenario and suggest that GDP growth in 2003 may reach ca. 3%. This forecast is slightly above average market forecasts, which are around 2.7%. The level of uncertainty in economic forecasting in the present climate is most clearly visible in the range of economic growth predictions (from 1.3% to 3.4%). As these figures show, though, even the most optimistic market forecast is below the budget assumption adopted by the government (3.5%). ------------------------------------------------------------------Forecasts of GDP growth in 2003 and its structure (% y/y) ------------------------------------------------------------------BZWBK Govt. Mean Range of forecasts of forecasts ------------------------------------------------------------------Economic growth 3.0 3.5 2.7 1.3-3.4 Private consumption 2.3 3.2 2.9 1.0-4.0 Investments 6.0 5.6 3.8 2.0-6.3 Exports 6.4 5.7 7.8 4.2-22.8 Imports 8.1 7.8 7.6 3.1-15.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------Note: Foreign trade data on basis of payments Source: BZ WBK, Consensus Economics Will acceleration of economic growth, including domestic demand, bring with it increased inflationary pressure? Perhaps a to slight extent, but several additional factors also need to be taken into consideration. Firstly, private consumption will accelerate, and secondly, the path of inflation next year, as usual in the Polish model, will depend to a large extent on the prices of foodstuffs. Moreover, the zloty will probably be relatively strong and this, via its influence on the price of imported goods, will restrict inflation. As such, there is no reason to expect a significant rise in inflation next year. The CPI indicator will probably remain in the lower half of the central banks inflationary target of 3% (+/- 1%). The low level of inflation, combined with limited economic activeness will prompt the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) to continue its policy of cutting interest rates. Low inflation in the first half of the year will bring several 25-bps reductions; it is unlikely that, having slowed to this scale of reductions in November 2002, the MPC will decide to reduce rates on a scale greater than 25 bps in 2003. The scaling down of rates reductions has curbed market expectations of further monetary easing, just as in April 2002, when the MPC adopted a 50-bps scale of reductions and subsequently did not reduce the rates by greater amounts. In the first half of November some market participants expected the NBP reference rate to fall to 5% by the end of 2003, but now it is looking as though they will have to revise their calculations. The reference rate in December 2003 should not fall below 6%, with expected reductions concentrated in the first half of the year. As stated above, further reductions will be prompted by low inflation and the continuing moderate scale of economic revival. However, in later periods the MPC probably ought to start taking inflationary prospects into account, since in the 2004-2005 period (and this is the scale of the delay with which rates cuts in 2003 will take effect) clearer economic revival is expected, which could cause increased inflationary pressure. If this is accompanied by the harmonisation of certain indirect taxes and the process of price levelling in Poland and the EU countries (although this will doubtless be very slow), it becomes clear that the MPC must be careful if it wants to meet the Maastricht inflation criterion. The frame within which the central bank will act in the medium term has not yet been clearly defined. The MPC, of course, will move to stabilise inflation at the low level it has already reached. This level will probably be set more precisely in 2003, when the next mid-term monetary policy is announced. The MPC faces a hard choice inasmuch as it still does not know when it can expect a date (a realistic one as opposed to declarations) for entry into the EMU. This, in turn, depends on the government's plans regarding fiscal adjustment. What is more, the inflationary target will be set by the present members of the MPC but sticking to it will be the task of their successors. And it is this factor, the appointment of new members of the Monetary Policy Council, that could, alongside the work on the next budget, prove the main risk factor for the financial markets. Officially the date for this change is early 2004, but the first speculations as to names will probably start circulating in the second half of 2003. Most likely, the three candidates proposed by the President will be of moderate views, not presenting a risk of serious change in monetary policy. However, the six remaining candidates put forward by the ruling coalition (three from the Sejm and three from the Senate) could be, in the words of Mr. Michalski, people with "less conservative" views. This means that the financial markets could start discounting a potential shift in monetary policy. Such a shift would not affect interest rates, as these would already be relatively low, and any potential reduction by a further 100 bps. would have little impact (other than improving politicians' self-satisfaction). It would be more likely to affect exchange rate policy, increasing the chance of agreement between the government and the central bank on the fixing of the zloty against the euro (a weaker zloty) or on a potential change of regime to a more active one, e.g. involving the introduction of a currency corridor. The proposal of MPC candidates associated with such views would definitely have a negative impact on the financial markets and cause the exchange rate of the zloty to weaken in the second half of 2003. --------------------------------------------------------This article was written by Piotr Bujak, Economist, Bank Zachodni WBK, e-mail: Piotr.Bujak@bzwbk.pl _____________________________________________________________________ Promotional message ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Executive Briefing: The Non-Alcoholic Beverage Sector in Poland ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ January 2003 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Table of contents ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Introductory remarks Characteristics of the non-alcoholic beverage sector in Poland The juice and nectar market The soft drink market The mineral water market The sport and energy drink market Prospects for development of the non-alcoholic beverage sector in Poland ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Supplement ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Definitions of non-alcoholic beverages in Poland Retail pricing of non-alcoholic beverages in Poland Key producers of non-alcoholic beverages in Poland ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Click here for more info: http://www.polishmarket.com/nonalcoholic_beverage.php#form _____________________________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE To subscribe please click here: http://www.polishmarket.com UNSUBSCRIBE To unsubscribe please click on http://www.sub.4free.pl/sub2/subscribe_pmr.php?action=unsubscribe&list_id=1001&uid =41038&email=rbove%40wcupa.edu PROBLEMS WITH UNSUBSCRIBING? Contact us at pmr@polishmarket.com HOW DO I CHANGE MY ADDRESS? Unsubscribe your old one, then subscribe the new one, using the link http://www.polishmarket.com WOULD YOU LIKE TO SPONSOR AN ISSUE? If you are interested in sponsoring our free newsletter send an email to: ads@polishmarket.com REFFER THIS NEWSLETTER TO A FRIEND Refer this newsletter to a Friend - click http://www.polishmarket.com/tellfriend_news2.html ______________________________________________________________________ Copyright (c) 2003 PMR Ltd. All rights reserved. Parts of this newsletter may be reproduced provided that PMR Ltd. (polishmarket.com) is given as the source.
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Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008
Path: Chester >> ECO >> 343 Fall, 2008