Coursehero >> New Hampshire >> Chester >> ECO 343

Course Hero has millions of student submitted documents similar to the one below including study guides, homework solutions, papers, exam answer keys and textbook solutions.

Polish From: Market Review [pmr@polishmarket.com] Sent: Thursday, February 20, 2003 10:33 AM To: PMR Subscriber Subject: PMR Economic Update No. 88, 20 February 2003 ______________________________________________________________________ **** PMR Economic Update Newsletter **** Date 20 February 2003 Issue No 88 ______________________________________________________________________ Published by: PMR Ltd. Edited by: Dorota Hesse dorota.hesse@polishmarket.com Joanna Nowak joanna.nowak@polishmarket.com ______________________________________________________________________ Copyright (c) 2003 PMR Ltd. All rights reserved. Parts of this newsletter may be reproduced provided that PMR Ltd. (polishmarket.com) is given as the source. Contact us: pmr@polishmarket.com Refer this newsletter to a friend - click http://www.polishmarket.com/tellfriend_news2.html ______________________________________________________________________ IN THIS ISSUE News * * * * Inflation Producer prices Industrial output Salaries Feature of the week * A modest improvement ______________________________________________________________________ Promotional message ################################################################# PMR Ltd. LATEST REPORT Poland 2003-2006: Economic Review & Forecasts ################################################################# Publication date: March 2003 Call +48 (12) 410-21-10 E-mail: pmr@polishmarket.com Click http://www.polishmarket.com/poland_2003_2006.php?id=3467&news=EU to get more info. ______________________________________________________________________ *** NEWS *** ______________________________________________________________________ * Inflation 20 February 2003 In January 2003 prices for consumer goods and services were up only 0.4% on last year. Food and beverages were 3.4% less expensive. Household-related costs (utilities, furnishings and other related outgoings) were 3.3% up on January 2002, while transport prices increased by 5.7%. ______________________________________________________________________ * Producer prices 20 February 2003 In January producer prices were 2.5% up y-o-y. The highest increase was noted in the electricity, gas and water supply sector (6.4%). Construction and assembly prices decreased by 0.4%. ______________________________________________________________________ * Industrial output 20 February 2003 In January this year, industrial output was 4.1% up on January 2002. The output of the energy, gas, and water supply sector was 2.6% up on last year, while manufacturing production increased by 4.7%, and mining output by 1.0%. Construction and assembly output was 10.1% down on last year. ______________________________________________________________________ * Salaries In January 2003, the average gross monthly salary was PLN2,246.51 ______________________________________________________________________ Promotional message ################################################################# Our new publication ****** Emerging Europe Market Review ****** THE QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW FOR SENIOR MANAGEMENT Click http://www.polishmarket.com/emerging_europe.php to download a free copy ################################################################# ______________________________________________________________________ *** FEATURE OF THE WEEK *** A modest improvement ______________________________________________________________________ See also: Polish Market Review No. 66, p. 11 As we expected, the economy started to accelerate over the last quarter of 2002, mainly due to an improvement in investment demand. Consumption and export growth remained relatively high and stable, leading to a GDP increase of over 2%. This upturn was accompanied by record low inflation, a strong currency and a current account deficit of well below 4% of GDP. The policy mix improved, mainly due to a relaxation of monetary policy and the neutral bias maintained in fiscal policy. We believe that the acceleration of GDP growth should continue for a number of quarters to come, fuelled mainly by a re-emergence of investment demand. However, we have also observed a few dangerous trends and risk factors that may limit the scope of the economic revival. First, the revival of investment activity has been slower than we expected. For the time being, instead of positive growth rates, we have observed no more than a low level of stabilisation. We expect investment growth to accelerate in any case, mainly due the to more favourable policy mix, a general improvement in the business climate, and Poland's approaching entry into the European Union. Nevertheless, the clear deterioration of the country's investment image, which can only partly be attributed to objective economic factors, is likely to lead to lower than expected inflows of FDI. Second, the external environment could well deteriorate, due to the continuing slowdown in Germany and the potential increase in oil prices due to political factors. That is likely to lead to some deterioration in the current account and to higher inflationary pressure. Third, the need to adjust public finance to the demands of EU membership, in particular to reduce consumption expenditure as a proportion of budget spending in order to be able to finance the EU membership contribution and release resources for investment, is likely to put significant pressure on fiscal policy. Although adjustments themselves will not take place before the 2004 budget is implemented, the legal preparations for pushing through a set of unpopular austerity moves may lead to some dissatisfaction in society. Finally, the approaching appointment of a new Monetary Policy Council may cause the financial markets a few jitters in the last months of the year. Altogether, higher inflation, the less favourable external and internal environment, falling confidence in macroeconomic policy and smaller inflows of FDI threaten to limit the scope of the economic revival. Unless the situation changes, despite the positive effects of EU accession, there may be a risk of GDP growth stabilising below 4% in 2004, with higher inflation and current account deficit. This would preclude any significant progress in reducing unemployment. In our view, the next four quarters may be expected to bring moderately accelerating GDP growth due to the following factors: 1. Domestic absorption grew very slowly in 2002, mainly due to the sharp fall in investment activities. Such a slowdown can not be explained simply in terms of the restrictive monetary policy, but reflects chiefly the uncertainty surrounding medium-term development prospects and social and economic stability. Therefore, a gradual rebuilding of market confidence is crucial if growth is to accelerate. 2. Poland's investment image has been damaged by the country's inability to attract new foreign investors and to resolve disputes with existing ones. Creation of an efficient institution to deal with potential investors (a one-stop shop) is an urgent necessity. Otherwise, investment demand will see no more than moderate growth. 3. The external sector should not seriously influence GDP growth. The increasing domestic demand, particularly in investment, should lead to the acceleration of imports. Therefore, we project that the Polish current account deficit will increase slightly in line with the growing FDI inflows. Altogether, we uphold our opinion that 2003 will be a year of slow improvement in the real economy. The hike in oil prices may lead to higher inflation, but the currency should remain strong. The coming quarters should be seen as a preparatory period for EU accession. Over time, this factor will play an increasing role in shaping economic policies, market sentiments, capital movements and the strength of the currency. -------------------------------------------------------This article was prepared by the Independent Centre for Economic Studies (NOBE). For queries, the NOBE e-mail is nobe@nobe.pl _____________________________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE To subscribe please click here: http://www.polishmarket.com UNSUBSCRIBE To unsubscribe please click on http://www.sub.4free.pl/sub2/subscribe_pmr.php?action=unsubscribe&list_id=1001&uid =41038&email=rbove%40wcupa.edu PROBLEMS WITH UNSUBSCRIBING? Contact us at pmr@polishmarket.com HOW DO I CHANGE MY ADDRESS? Unsubscribe your old one, then subscribe the new one, using the link http://www.polishmarket.com WOULD YOU LIKE TO SPONSOR AN ISSUE? If you are interested in sponsoring our free newsletter send an email to: ads@polishmarket.com REFFER THIS NEWSLETTER TO A FRIEND Refer this newsletter to a Friend - click http://www.polishmarket.com/tellfriend_news2.html ______________________________________________________________________ Copyright (c) 2003 PMR Ltd. All rights reserved. Parts of this newsletter may be reproduced provided that PMR Ltd. (polishmarket.com) is given as the source.

Find millions of documents here - Study Guides, Homework Solutions, Papers, Exam Answer Keys and more. Course Hero has millions of course related materials that will enable you to learn better, faster and get an A in all your courses.
Below is a small sample set of documents: