Fourth 472NOT14.DOC Wave Critique Of Deterrence Theory
September 8, 1996
Deterrence May Be Appropriate If Challenger Motivated By Opportunity Than By Need. Reassurance Takes Into Account Adversarys Acute Sense Of Vulnerability. Need Focuses On Intolerable Costs Of Inaction. Leaders Make Motivated Responses To Strategic Dilemmas. Psychological Stress Arising From Decisional Dilemmas Give Rise To Defensive Avoidance As A Coping Strategy. Security Dilemmas Cause Defensive Responses And Over-Estimation Of Hostility As Well As Bolstering. Motivated Errors In Information Processing Cause Insensitivity To Warning--Receptivity To Signals Blocked. Defensive Avoidance: Avoid, Dismiss, Deny Warnings That Increase Fear. Insensitivity To Warning A Hallmark Of Defensive Avoidance. Motivated Bias Response To Needs Or External Pressure. Motivated Bias Can Lead To Faulty Assessment Of Adversary Resolve, Overconfidence, Insensitivity To Warnings, And Thus Defeat Deterrence. Problems In Applying Deterrence: Difficulty In Communicating Capability And Resolve: What Is The Meaning Of Barking Dogs, Barbed Wire, No Trespassing Signs? What Is The Story About Ned Lebows Sons: Eli And David? Why Did Eli Hit David? Because He Was Told Not To Do So! Why Did The Soviets Place Missiles In Cuba? Because Kennedy Told Them They Were Vulnerable And That He Knew They Were. Or Was It Because Khruschev Thought Kennedy Weak Was , Lacked Resolve, And Thus Discounted His Warning About Vulnerability? Challengers Focus On Their Own Needs And Do Not Consider The Needs, Interests, And Capabilities Of Defenders; Even If Challengers Try Take Account Needs, Interests, Capabilities Of Defenders, There Is Misperception. What Is Successful Deterrence: Failed Deterrence? Why Is It Difficult To Tell Success Or Failure Of Deterrence? What Is The Significance Of The North Korean Invasion Of The South For Deterrence Theory? Munich? What Is The Problem With The Munich Analogy? With The North Korea War Analogy? Counterfactual Reasoning. If Hitler Was Motivated By Gain, Deterrence Was Relevant. If By Fear, Appeasement Was More Appropriate.
Reassurance Dictates That Defenders Try To Communicate To Adversaries Their Benign Intentions. Why? To Reduce Fear, Misunder...