Seminar, Senior Section 001, Fall 2004
Agenda 3 for September 27
Course web site: http://www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemF04 I. II. Stephen McMinn, Research Librarian, Science and Engineering Library Announcements: A. Section 1 on The Present Situation due today. Look for them after Thursday this week, outside my office (2311 A/AB) B. I will be away Monday October 4 online class. I will be at Chicago City Centre Holiday Inn, 312-787-6100. C. Go over system on September 27. 1. An online chat system. Everyone logs in at the same time, text-based discussion. Moderated, can shout past me and can whisper to another person "privately" 2. 7:00 to 9:30 PM 3. Will need a computer with Internet access. Can use any computer in the UGL, for example. 4. This system works better with Internet Explorer than with other Browsers such as Netscape 5. Agenda 4 will be on course web site (http://www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemF04) D. More research resources on course web site E. Reminder about Online Course Information Form on course web site 1. Tell me the email address you really want to use 2. If you want to be able to use Online Grade Reports, change No to Yes F. Reminder about weekly email to [e-mail] about a research source. This coming week is the last week for "Gee this is a great site with lots of information." Starting week of October 4, be specific in messages: (a) what information and (b) in which section would you use it G. Not ten, but fifteen research sources for paper H. Section 3 in two weeks the pressures for change (petroleum supply, Global Warming, congestion, safety) I. Review of names III. Course Portfolios, for those who didn't get checked off last class IV. Unchat - handout V. News stories - handout VI. Content: review of last class A. History B. Why Detroit? C. Current statistics D. Chemistry basics E. Emission regulations F. Mileage regulations (CAFE) G. Petroleum supply
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Agenda 3 VII. Coming crisis in personal transportation (automobile) (Chpt 3) A. There is one general crisis, of which this is one example. Footprint of humanity on the earth is so large that we are effectively responsible now, or we soon will be, for all life on earth. For example, 40% of all plant growth (photosynthesis) on land occurs under humanity's control. But at this point we do not know enough to be able to discharge this responsibility. Examples: 1. Population: 6 billion on earth now, growing rapidly. 2. Food: we thought we would have trouble feeding 6 billion but Green Revolution of `70s and `80s made this possible (equitable distribution is a problem). But the Green Revolution is pretty much tapped out now. Requires use of special seeds, fertilizers, machinery. What to do? 3. Water supply. 4. Extinctions. B. Four aspects of the crisis in personal transportation. 1. Petroleum supply 2. Global warming 3. Congestion 4. Safety C. Petroleum supply 1. Amount remaining in ground 2. Differences in estimates does not mean that many years extra 20 yrs 3. 82 MBO per day consumed worldwide, US 20 MBO 4. "Hubbert curve" for resource consumption, bell-shaped. 5. Alternatives to OPEC will all be used up quickly. OPEC is the giant (Pg 11) 6. Petroleum approximately 40% of world energy use, but almost 100% of transportation energy is petroleum. Energy density high, liquid form means can it be handled easily. 7. US has approximately one car per licensed driver, growth in number of cars is slow. Developing economies have higher growth rates. Approximately 1.5 to 1.8 occupants per car. 8. Congestion growth Pg 21, large rates of growth. 9. Ideas for curbing use of cars, more and more cities doing this. "Hidden costs." a. Public transportation b. Car-pool lanes c. Higher fuel costs D. Global warming 1. Visible light from sun is re-radiated as long-wavelength infrared radiation, which is absorbed and radiated back to the earth. 2. Causes temperature increase, estimate is about 1F over last century, an additional 2F to 5F by 2050, if present trends continue. 3. Our understanding depends upon computer models. Disagreements, uncertainties. Problem is not completely understood, range of estimates, but methods are improving all the time a. Lags b. Nature of science
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Agenda 3 4. Effects a. Current Glaciers melting Rising sea level Spring coming earlier Species shifting breeding patters b. Future possible effects Desertification Coastal flooding Weather more unstable Health Disruption of ecosystems c. Idea that we can adapt more cheaply but we do not know the full consequences d. Once it starts, some indications that it may not be reversible 5. Possible actions a. Some actions now states, insurance companies - CARB b. Limit production of CO2 c. Switch fuels / energy systems switch to fuels with less C and more H C + O2 CO2 2H2 + O2 2H2O Unfortunately, fuels with lots of H are gases, require lots of storage room: CH4 (methane, or natural gas) & H (may be able to store this at high density in special metallic materials), also no natural sources of hydrogen d. Reforestation e. Sequestration (will not work for transportation) 6. Arguments against Global Warming, and responses a. Some climate scientists disagree. Response: This is the nature of science, an open dialog. There is a very strong scientific consensus about Global Warmin...