Moines Des Register 06-21-06 As D.M. slims, suburbs swell Officials in capital dispute census data, saying minorities are undercounted BY JANE NORMAN AND JASON CLAYWORTH REGISTER STAFF WRITERS Des Moines faces the question of whether a city's population must grow in order for the city to remain vibrant, as new census estimates issued today show the capital continuing to lose residents while its suburbs flourish. City leaders contend that the census estimates undercount members of minority groups who tend to live in Des Moines rather than in the suburbs. "When the information is treated as gospel, that seems like a bit of a stretch," said City Manager Rick Clark. Des Moines lost 2.3 percent of its population between 2000 and 2005, the census says, going from a population estimate of 198,733 to 194,163. Des Moines resident Samuel McGruder has watched many of his friends move from the city. "A lot of people who come from out of town don't stay long," McGruder said. "I don't know why. I'm very comfortable here." A lot of people are comfortable and happy in Des Moines. A recent poll of more than 1,200 residents taken for the city showed that eight of 10 said they were pleased overall with the quality of city services. Yet the suburbs are more of a draw all the time. Ankeny's growth spurt took it from 27,264 in 2000 to 36,681 in 2005, a 34 percent increase. John Peterson, director of community planning and building in Ankeny, said it's not just families moving into Ankeny -- it's larger families whose children are filling seats in schools. "I think Ankeny's attractive to young families," he said, because it's easier for parents to commute to either Des Moines or Ames. While signs are that construction has slowed, the city still anticipates 900 to 1,000 building starts this year in a mix of single-family homes, townhomes and condos. Dave Swenson, a scientist in the department of economics at Iowa State University who studies demographics, took a look at the list of city estimates and found that 12 of the 20 fastest-growing cities in Iowa were in the Des Moines
area. He was particularly struck by the increase in Ankeny, a town of some size even in 2000. "They're whomping on West Des Moines now," he said. Suburbs ringing Des Moines on all sides are gaining, Swenson said. "People think all the growth is in West Des Moines, and that's so wrong." In Waukee, a 70 percent increase in population took the town from 5,395 in 2000 to 9,213 in 2005. Altoona grew from 10,361 to 12,938, a nearly 25 percent increase. While it remains by far the largest city in Iowa, Des Moines has slipped from the list of the nation's 100 largest cities, coming in at No. 106 just behind Huntington Beach, Calif., and ahead of Grand Rapids, Mich. Rankings of growth rates put Des Moines (with a 2.3 percent decline) at No. 220 of the 254 cities with populations of more than 100,000. Cities experiencing a similar rate of loss from 2000 to 2005 included Richmond, Va., Sunnyvale, Calif., Lakewood, Colo., Baltimore and Minneapolis. Becky Peterson and her family moved from Des Moines' Beaverdale neighborhood to Woodward in January. A big factor in the move: crime. The Petersons experienced three burglaries in three years, once to their car, once to their garage and once to their home. Crime statistics from police departments in the metro area show that burglaries are more than twice as common in Des Moines as in West Des Moines, based upon population and incident numbers. Des Moines had 2,631 burglaries last year. "We were already kind of looking, but that kind of pushed us to get out," Peterson said. Estimates distrusted Clark, the Des Moines city manager, believes that the census numbers are inaccurate and that people unfairly judge the city based on estimates. "The experience we've had over the years is that estimates are off from the actual counts," Clark said. In 1996, census officials estimated that Des Moines had 193,422 residents. The actual count in 2000 turned out to be 198,682, a difference of more than 5,000 people. (The 198,733 number used by the census for its estimates base for 2000 reflects modifications and updates from the actual count.)
City leaders believe that Des Moines' minority population has grown since the last census and that minority residents often are undercounted by census takers. The estimates are based in part on building permits, mobile home shipments and housing unit loss, as well as the history of housing occupancy as found in the 2000 census. Song Chen, a professor of statistics at Iowa State University, is leading a threeyear, federally financed project to the examine accuracy of census statistics. The National Science Foundation has given Chen and two other faculty members a $280,416 grant to find ways to ensure that everyone is counted. Chen said that, indeed, minorities often are undercounted and that there are portions of Des Moines with large numbers of minority residents. In addition, young people between the ages of 17 and 24 tend to be undercounted because they are transient, he said. Renters also are often undercounted. However, Chen said, the annual estimates are "much more reliable" than they were 10 years ago and the quality of the estimates is higher. "That doesn't say we can take it religiously," he said, "but it's a lot better than before." The next decennial census, in which the Census Bureau actually counts the number of people in the country and which affects how much federal money states and localities receive, will be conducted in 2010. Congressional aides said that the estimates generally don't have a bearing on federal allocations. Experts have said Iowa probably will lose a congressional seat in 2010 because it is not gaining people as rapidly as other states. A city's challenges Like many aging cities in the United States, Des Moines city leaders face challenges that are different from newer suburban areas, which helps explain why taxes are higher. City leaders, for example, point out that they have greater needs for street and sewer repairs, particularly on systems that are more than 100 years old. The city also must deal with hundreds of homes every year that have deteriorated or been abandoned, a challenge that the suburbs don't deal with as frequently. Yet another challenge for the city is the amount of property that is not taxed. About $1.5 billion worth of property in Polk County is shielded from the tax collector. Most is in Des Moines, where roughly 40 percent of all property, for various reasons, is untaxed. The value of that property has grown by more than $197 million over the past five years. The amount of property that is untaxed leaves a larger burden on families and businesses.
City leaders have recognized these challenges and have, on numerous occasions in the past five years, proposed solutions. One, for example, was to create a special fee for police and fire protection that would be paid by every property owner, even churches, hospitals and other nonprofits. So far, that attempt has not gained ground with Iowa lawmakers. The city has also increased fees on gas and electric bills, which are paid by virtually every energy user in the city. The increased fees, which generate more than $13 million a year, are used to pay for extra police and firefighters as well as to plug holes in the budget and increase library hours. The fee, however, was challenged by a Des ...