FARMS REPRESENTATIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NOVEMBER 1999 FAPRI/AFPC BASELINE
AFPC Working Paper 99-11
James W. Richardson David P. Anderson Edward G. Smith Ronald D. Knutson Paul Feldman Keith Schumann Joe L. Outlaw Steven L. Klose Robert B. Schwart, Jr. Cody White
Agricultural and Food Policy Center Department of Agricultural Economics Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Texas Agricultural Extension Service Texas A&M University
December 1999
College Station, Texas 77843-2124 Telephone: [phone] Fax: [phone] Web Site: http://afpc1.tamu.edu/
REPRESENTATIVE FARMS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NOVEMBER 1999 FAPRI/AFPC BASELINE
AFPC Working Paper 99-11
James W. Richardson David P. Anderson Edward G. Smith Ronald D. Knutson Paul Feldman Keith Schumann Joe L. Outlaw Steven L. Klose Robert B. Schwart, Jr. Cody White
Agricultural and Food Policy Center Department of Agricultural Economics Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Texas Agricultural Extension Service Texas A&M University
December 1999 College Station, Texas 77843-2124 Telephone: [phone] Fax: [phone] Web Site: http://afpc1.tamu.edu/
Table of Contents
Representative Farms Economic Outlook For The November 1999 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Panel Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Key Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 FAPRI November 1999 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Definitions of Variables in the Summary Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Map of Farms Producing Feed Grains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Map of Farms Producing Wheat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Map of Farms Producing Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Map of Farms Producing Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Map of Farms Producing Milk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Map of Farms Producing Beef Cattle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Map of Farms Producing Hogs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Appendix A: Characteristics of Representative Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producing Feed Grain and Oilseeds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producing Wheat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producing Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producing Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producing Milk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producing Beef Cattle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producing Hogs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 74 78 80 82 84 90 92
Appendix B: List of Panel Farm Cooperators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Feed Grain Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Wheat Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Cotton Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Rice Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Dairy Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Beef Producers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Hog Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Executive Summary The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the representative crop and livestock farms economic viability by region and commodity throughout the life of the 1996 Farm Bill. The representative farm economic data is developed in cooperation with a panel of producers to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates are from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) November 1999 Baseline. Additionally, many farmers accumulated debt since 1996 due to low yields from the 1996 and 1998 droughts in the South and Southwest and the drought in parts of the Midwest in 1999. # Thirty-five of the 43 crop farms have more than a 40 percent chance of cash flow deficits over the 2000-2004 period. Low crop prices for 1998 and 1999 and the prospect for a slow recovery of prices are the major factors behind the poor performance of the crop farms. # Thirteen of the 15 feedgrain farms have probabilities greater than 40 percent that they will experience cash flow problems in 2000-2004. Seven of the 15 will likely have high probabilities of having to refinance cash flow deficits. Eleven of the 15 farms have probabilities greater than 40 percent of losing real net worth by 2004. In summary, the financial condition of the 15 feedgrain farms is rated as follows: eleven in poor, three in cautionary, and one in good financial condition by 2004. # Six of the 10 wheat farms have a greater than 40 percent probability they will experience cash flow problems in 2000-2004, yet only three wheat farms monitored have high probabilities of refinancing due to cash reserves. In summary, six of the 10 wheat farms are likely to be in poor financial condition by 2004, one in cautionary financial condition, and three in good financial condition by 2004. # Seven of the 9 cotton farms are projected to have greater than a 40 percent chance of cash flow deficits in 2000-2004. Three of the 9 will face high probabilities of refinancing deficits. Three of the 9 cotton farms will be in poor financial condition by 2004, four in cautionary financial condition, and two in good financial condition by 2004. # Seven of the 9 rice farms are projected to have greater than a 40 percent chance of cash flow deficits over the 2000-2004 planning horizon. Five of the farms will likely have high probabilities of refinancing deficits and six will face high probabilities of losing real net worth. Overall, seven farms will be in poor financial shape, and two will be in good shape by 2004. # The dairy farms appear in good financial shape over the 2000-2004 period. Low feed costs and higher cattle prices tend to offset lower milk prices such that only six of the 26 farms have high probabilities of cash flow deficits. In summary, five of the 26 dairy farms are classified in poor financial condition, one in cautionary condition, and 20 in good financial condition by 2004. # Increasing cattle prices over the planning horizon help to improve the financial viability of cattle operations. Two of the four cattle operations will likely be in poor financial condition in 2004, one in cautionary shape, and one in good financial condition by 2004. # Higher hog prices following the low prices in 1998 and 1999 improve the financial condition of the representative hog farms over the recent past. Three of the 6 farms are expected to have high probabilities of cash flow deficits over the 2000-2004 planning horizon. In summary, two of the 6 farms is classified as being in poor financial condition in 2004, one in cautionary shape, and three in good financial condition by 2004.
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REPRESENTATIVE FARMS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NOVEMBER 1999 FAPRI/AFPC BASELINE
The farm level economic impacts of projected long term prices under the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR) on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. For this report the FAIR Act will be referred to as the 1996 Farm Bill. The analysis was conducted over the 1996-2004 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPCs whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nations major production regions came from two sources: # Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. # Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) November 1999 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms economic viability by region and commodity throughout the life of the 1996 Farm Bill and beyond. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the November 1999 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing annual cash flow deficits and the probability of having to refinance cash flow deficits are provided to show the financial risk faced by the representative farms. The probability of a farm losing real net worth is included as an indicator of the equity risk facing farms through the year 2004. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI November 1999 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh through ninth sections summarize simulation results for dairy, cattle and hog farms. Two appendices constitute the final section of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process. Panel Process AFPC has developed and maintains data to simulate more than 80 representative crop and livestock farms chosen from major production areas across the United States (Figure 1). Characteristics for each of the farms in terms of location, size, crop mix, assets, and average receipts are summarized in Appendix A. The location of these farms is primarily the result of discussions with staffers for the House and Senate Agriculture Committees. Information necessary to simulate the economic activity on these representative farms is developed from panels of producers using a consensus building interview process. Normally two farms are developed in each region using separate panels of producers: one is representative of moderate size full-time farm operations, and the second panel usually represents farms two to three times larger.
Figure 1. Representative Farms and Ranches
Dairy Wheat Cattle Cattle Dairy Rice Cattle Wheat Cotton Dairy Wheat Feed Grain Rice Dairy Dairy Cotton Cotton Dairy Feed Grain Cotton Rice Rice Cotton Dairy Feed Grain Feed Grain Wheat Hog Feed Grain Feed Grain Cattle Dairy Rice Hog Wheat Dairy Dairy Dairy Dairy Dairy Dairy
Feed Grain Cotton
Hog
Feed Grain Dairy Dairy Dairy
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The data collected from the panel farms are analyzed in the whole farm simulation model (FLIPSIM) developed by AFPC. The producer panels are provided pro-forma financial statements for their representative farm and are asked to verify the accuracy of simulated results for the past year and the reasonableness of a four to five year projection. Each panel must approve of the models ability to reasonably reflect the economic activity on their representative farm prior to using the farm for policy analyses. Most of the farms used in the analysis have all been updated with the panels through 1999. All of the crop farms are assumed to begin 1996 with 20 percent intermediate- and long-term debt, based on information provided by ERS-USDA and the panel members. Initial debt levels in 1996 for dairy farms were set at 30 percent; initial debt levels for beef cattle ranches were 1 percent for land and 5 percent for cattle and machinery; and initial debt levels for hog farms were 45 percent. Key Assumptions # All farms classified as moderate scale are the size (acres or number of livestock) considered to be representative of a majority of full-time commercial farming operations in the study area. In many regions, a second farm, two to three times larger than the moderate scale farm is developed as an indicator of size economies. Dairy, hog, and cattle herd sizes are held constant for all farms over the 1996-2004 planning horizon. The farm was structured so government payment limits were not effective at reducing contract payments and loan deficiency payments. Minimum family living withdrawals were assumed at a base rate of 10 percent of gross receipts or $25,000 annually, whichever is lower. Actual family living withdrawals are determined by historical consumption patterns. Therefore, as the farms profitability increases so does the level of family living withdrawals. The farm is subject to owner/operator federal (income and self-employment) and state income taxes as a sole proprietor, based on the current tax provisions. No off-farm-related income including family employment was included in the analyses. Therefore, the farm reflects only the ability of the farm to provide for family living and capital replacement. Farm program parameters, average annual prices, crop and livestock yield trends, interest rates, and input cost inflation (deflation) are based on the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline which assumes implementation of the 1996 Farm Bill through 2004. Contract payments for participating cotton, wheat, feed grain, and rice producers are made based on 85 percent of their historical base acreage times farm program yield times a contract payment rate. The contract payment rate is included in the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline. The farms are assumed to be enrolled in the production flexibility program and take full advantage of the flexibility provisions in the 1996 Farm Bill (within the current crop mix). PFC payments are held constant in 2003 and 2004 at their 2002 levels. Crop mix changes after 1999 were estimated based on projected net returns for each of the enterprises currently produced on the farms. During the
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update process most of the crop farm panels indicated that they would flex out of their current crop mix, but only if expected net returns per acre from the change exceeded $40, due to rotation and/or other cultural concerns. # Marketing loan provisions for cotton, rice, wheat, feed grains, and soybeans were authorized in the 1996 Farm Bill and are assumed to be in place for the farm level analysis. The farm level simulation model incorporates price and yield risk faced by farmers. Historical yield variability for crops and production for livestock (sale weights and milk/cow) over the past ten years are assumed to prevail for the planning horizon. Market prices for crops and feedstuffs are assumed to be more variable than over the past ten years due to the 1996 Farm Bill provisions, based on recent research by FAPRI. The assumed increase in relative price variability is: 57 percent for feed grains, 40 percent for wheat, 57 percent for soybeans, 34 percent for cotton, 10 percent for rice, 10 percent for cattle and hogs and 50 percent for milk. Random prices are appropriately correlated based on historical correlations, among crop and livestock prices, both within year and across years. To simulate the historical portion of the planning horizon (1996-1999) crop yields were held constant based on actual values obtained from the producers. Average yields for 2000-2004 were simulated based on the average yields provided by the producers and the historical yield variability for the farm. Prices were held constant at producer provided values for 1996-1999. FAPRIs November Baseline prices were localized for the farms and used as the average prices for 2000-2004. The 1996 Farm Bill eliminated the dairy assessments after 1996 and provides for a reduction in the milk support price starting in 1997. Each year the dairy support price falls 15 cents per hundred weight until the support price reaches $9.90 per hundred weight in 1999. Support price remains at $9.90/cwt. in 2000 and is eliminated thereafter. Market loss assistance payments and disaster provisions passed in late 1998 and again in 1999 have been incorporated. All farms are assumed to carry MPCI at the 50/100 level.
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FAPRI November 1999 Baseline Projected crop prices for FAPRIs November 1999 Baseline are summarized in Table 1. Corn prices decline from the high of $2.71/bu. in 1996 to a low of $1.85/bu. in 1999, but are projected to increase marginally until they reach $2.16/bu. in 2004. Wheat prices have declined to $2.46/bu. in 1999, but are expected to increase through 2003 when wheat prices are projected at $3.19/bu. Cotton prices will likely continue their decline until 1999 reaching a low of $0.4842/lb. and then increase gradually to $0.5636/lb. in 2004. Rice prices have declined from the $9.96/cwt. level realized in 1996 to $6.31/cwt. in 1999, but are expected to recover to $7.46/cwt. by 2004. Assumed loan rates and projected annual contract (AMTA) payment rates, net of 1995 deficiency repayments in 1996 and 1997, are also summarized in Table 1. The farms growing contract commodities were assumed to have accepted the 1995 advance deficiency payments and had the repayments offset against 1996 contract payments for wheat, barley, oats, and upland cotton and the 1997 contract payments for corn and soybeans. The assumed contract or AMTA payment rates for 1998 and 1999 reflect the increase for the 1998 and 1999 market loss assistance payments authorized in those years. Annual contract payments for 2002 are assumed to remain constant for 2003 and 2004. Projected livestock prices for FAPRIs January 1999 Baseline are summarized in Table 2. Beef cattle prices are projected to increase throughout most of the planning horizon after the drought induced decline in 1998. Actual feeder cattle prices were $61.31 and $81.34/cwt. for 1996 and 1997, but declined to $77.70/cwt. in 1998. Following this one year adjustment prices increased in 1999 to $81.48/cwt. The recovery of beef prices is projected to continue through 2003, reaching $93.14/cwt. Hog prices declined after 1996 reaching a low of $32.34/cwt. in 1999. Hog prices are projected to recover to $43.52/cwt. in 2002 and then fall to $40.61/cwt. in 2004. Annual milk prices for the 12 states, where representative dairy farms are located, are summarized in Table 2. The U.S. all milk price increased dramatically in 1998 to $15.41/cwt. but is projected to decrease to $12.87/cwt. by 2002 and increase slightly to $13.12/cwt. by 2004. Projected annual rates of change for variable cash expenses are presented in Table 3. The rate of change in input prices and interest rates come from FAPRIs November 1999 Baseline which relies on WEFAs macroeconomic projections. Annual interest rates paid for long- and intermediate-term loans and earned for savings are also summarized in Table 3. Assumed annual rates of change in land values over the 2000-2004 period are provided by the FAPRI Baseline and indicate a decrease in nominal land values for 2000-2004 (Table 3). Definitions of Variables in the Summary Tables # Annual Change in Real Net Worth, 1996-2004 -- annualized percentage change in the operators net worth from January 1, 1996 through December 31, 2004, after adjusting for inflation. This value reflects the real annualized increase or decrease in net worth or equity for the farm over the planning horizon including changes in real estate values. Net Income Adjustment (NIA), 1996-2004 -- NIA is the annual increase or decrease in net cash farm income necessary to cause the change in real net worth, including land inflation, to equal zero over the planning horizon. If the change in net worth is negative, the NIA is the annual increase in net income necessary to prevent a loss in total real net worth. NIAs are expressed both as total dollars per year and as a percent of average annual cash receipts.
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Table 1. FAPRI November 1999 Baseline Projections of Crop Prices, Loan Rates, and AMTA Payment Rates, 1996-2004 1996 Crop Prices Corn ($/bu.) Wheat ($/bu.) Cotton ($/lb.) Sorghum ($/bu.) Soybeans ($/bu.) Barley ($/bu.) Oats ($/bu.) Rice ($/cwt.) Soybean Meal ($/ton) All Hay ($/ton) All Peanuts (cents/lb.) Additional Peanuts (cents/lb.) Loan Rates Corn ($/bu.) Wheat ($/bu.) Cotton ($/lb.) Sorghum ($/bu.) Soybeans ($/bu.) Barley ($/bu.) Oats ($/bu.) Rice ($/cwt.) AMTA Payment Rates Corn ($/bu.) Wheat ($/bu.) Cotton ($/lb.) Sorghum ($/bu.) Barley ($/bu.) Oats ($/bu.) Rice ($/cwt.) 0.25 0.87 0.0890 0.32 0.33 0.03 2.77 0.49 0.63 0.0760 0.54 0.28 0.03 2.71 0.56 0.99 0.1230 0.68 0.43 0.05 4.37 0.73 1.27 0.1570 0.87 0.54 0.06 5.68 0.33 0.59 0.0710 0.40 0.25 0.03 2.60 0.27 0.47 0.0570 0.32 0.20 0.02 2.10 0.26 0.46 0.0560 0.31 0.20 0.02 2.04 0.26 0.46 0.0560 0.31 0.20 0.02 2.04 0.26 0.46 0.0560 0.31 0.20 0.02 2.04 1.89 2.58 0.5192 1.81 4.97 1.55 1.03 6.50 1.89 2.58 0.5192 1.76 5.26 1.57 1.11 6.50 1.89 2.58 0.5192 1.74 5.26 1.56 1.11 6.50 1.89 2.58 0.5192 1.74 5.26 1.56 1.11 6.50 1.89 2.58 0.5000 1.74 5.16 1.56 1.11 6.50 1.71 2.28 0.5000 1.57 4.92 1.41 1.00 6.50 1.59 2.18 0.5000 1.47 4.92 1.31 0.93 6.50 1.59 2.18 0.5000 1.47 4.92 1.31 0.93 6.50 1.62 2.29 0.5000 1.49 4.92 1.34 0.95 6.50 2.71 4.30 0.6930 2.34 7.35 2.74 1.96 9.96 259.50 95.80 28.10 19.00 2.43 3.38 0.6520 2.21 6.47 2.38 1.60 9.70 175.10 102.50 28.30 19.30 1.95 2.65 0.6020 1.70 5.02 1.98 1.10 8.83 127.00 85.10 25.00 17.00 1.85 2.46 0.4842 1.56 4.77 1.96 1.07 6.31 140.00 78.90 26.90 18.40 1.96 2.91 0.4884 1.81 4.52 1.97 1.20 6.67 132.40 79.70 27.00 18.40 2.00 2.99 0.5011 1.89 4.71 1.99 1.22 6.81 138.40 81.80 28.10 19.30 2.06 3.09 0.5185 1.95 4.87 2.05 1.25 7.11 144.50 82.30 27.90 19.10 2.12 3.19 0.5409 2.00 5.02 2.11 1.28 7.32 147.70 82.90 27.90 19.10 2.16 3.16 0.5636 2.04 5.13 2.14 1.30 7.46 150.80 83.80 27.90 19.10 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table 2. FAPRI November 1999 Baseline Projections of Livestock and Milk Prices, 1996-2004 1996 Cattle Prices Feeder Cattle ($/cwt) Fat Cattle ($/cwt) Culled Cows ($/cwt) Hog Prices Barrows/Gilts ($/cwt) Culled Sows ($/cwt) Milk Prices -- National and State All Milk Price ($/cwt) California ($/cwt) Florida ($/cwt) Georgia ($/cwt) Idaho ($/cwt) Michigan ($/cwt) Missouri ($/cwt) New Mexico ($/cwt) New York ($/cwt) Texas ($/cwt) Vermont ($/cwt) Washington ($/cwt) Wisconsin ($/cwt) 14.75 13.66 18.00 16.30 13.90 15.00 15.10 13.80 14.90 15.10 15.30 14.50 14.75 13.36 12.62 16.50 14.70 12.30 13.60 13.70 12.90 13.40 13.70 14.30 13.20 13.33 15.41 15.01 18.20 16.60 14.50 15.30 15.60 14.80 15.40 15.70 16.00 15.40 15.50 14.35 13.48 17.88 15.85 12.86 14.64 14.41 13.78 14.27 14.72 15.11 14.03 13.83 13.00 12.45 16.85 14.83 11.93 13.62 13.39 12.25 12.91 13.22 14.60 13.10 12.82 12.89 12.42 16.82 14.79 11.75 13.58 13.34 12.10 12.84 13.14 13.49 12.92 12.76 12.87 12.40 16.80 14.77 11.79 13.56 13.33 12.13 12.84 13.14 13.48 12.97 12.75 13.07 12.60 17.00 14.97 12.04 13.77 13.53 12.37 13.05 13.35 13.69 13.21 12.96 13.12 12.66 17.06 15.03 12.07 13.82 13.59 12.41 13.10 13.40 13.75 13.24 13.02 56.53 44.61 54.30 44.51 34.72 24.28 32.34 19.18 37.70 25.72 42.23 28.41 43.52 29.56 43.05 28.71 40.61 26.21 61.31 65.05 30.33 81.34 66.32 34.27 77.70 61.48 36.19 81.48 65.00 38.80 87.65 70.09 43.33 89.91 73.31 44.98 91.83 74.83 45.17 93.14 75.26 46.01 90.35 73.73 43.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table 3. FAPRI November 1999 Baseline Assumed Rates of Change in Input Prices, Annual Interest Rates, and Annual Changes in Land Values, 1997-2004 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Annual Rate of Change for Input Prices Paid Seed Prices (%) Fertilizer Prices (%) Chemical Prices (%) Machinery Prices (%) Fuel and Lube Prices (%) Labor (%) Other Input Prices (%) Non-Feed Dairy Costs (%) Non-Feed Beef Costs (%) Non-Feed Hog Costs (%) 7.73 -1.76 -2.01 2.47 0.49 2.48 -0.06 4.04 5.52 -0.89 4.56 -10.32 1.82 2.97 -6.48 3.91 -2.48 -1.24 -2.17 2.69 -0.08 -1.51 -1.42 -0.87 -1.67 0.89 -0.47 0.92 0.22 -0.04 -3.66 1.61 1.80 1.50 1.99 5.82 1.88 0.00 3.46 3.39 2.03 2.43 2.39 0.75 3.09 4.64 1.52 0.08 2.09 1.63 1.84 1.33 2.12 0.54 1.59 3.82 2.14 0.78 2.19 2.39 1.77 1.36 2.12 -0.06 1.63 3.47 2.40 0.76 2.20 2.21 1.80 1.52 2.11 0.28 1.84 4.01 2.37 1.02 1.35 2.39
Annual Change in Consumer Price Index (%)
2.34
1.56
2.18
2.50
2.55
2.28
2.38
2.39
Annual Interest Rates Long-Term (%) Intermediate-Term (%) Savings Account (%) 7.69 8.44 4.44 7.10 8.35 4.35 7.53 7.95 3.95 7.74 8.23 4.23 7.77 8.23 4.23 7.60 8.23 4.23 7.45 8.23 4.23 7.42 8.23 4.23
Annual Rate of Change for U.S. Land Prices (%)
4.40
5.18
1.85
-0.83
-0.72
-2.78
-2.13
-0.98
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
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# Cost to Receipts Ratio, 1996-2004 -- average ratio of total cash expenses to total receipts (from all sources). Cash expenses include interest costs, fixed cash costs, and variable costs but exclude principal payments, depreciation, income taxes, and family living expenses. Total receipts include crop and livestock receipts plus government payments and insurance indemnities. Government Payments/Receipts, 1996-2004 sum of all farm program payments (AMTA and marketing loan deficiency payments) divided by total receipts received from the market plus contract payments, marketing loans, crop insurance indemnities, and other farm related income. Total Cash Receipts -- sum of cash receipts from all sources, including market sales, AMTA (or contract) payments, CCC loans, marketing loan deficiency payments, crop insurance indemnities, and other farm related income. The values in the tables are the average total receipts for each year in the planning horizon. Net Cash Farm Income -- equals total cash receipts minus all cash expenses. Net cash farm income is used to pay family living expenses, principal payments, income taxes, self employment taxes, and machinery replacement costs. The values in the tables are the averages for each year in the planning horizon. Probability of a Cash Flow Deficit -- is the number of times out of 100 that the farms annual net cash farm income does not exceed cash requirements for family living, principal payments, taxes (income and self-employment), and actual machinery replacement expenses (not depreciation). This probability is reported for each year of the planning horizon to indicate whether the cash flow risk for a farm increases or decreases over the planning horizon. Ending Cash Reserves -- equals total cash on hand at the end of the year. Ending cash equals beginning cash reserves plus net cash farm income and interest earned on cash reserves less principal payments, federal taxes (income and self employment), state income taxes, family living withdrawals, and actual machinery replacement costs (not depreciation). Probability of Refinancing Deficits -- is the number of times out of 100 that cash flow deficits are greater than available cash reserves. This probability is reported for each year of the planning horizon to indicate whether the financial risk for a farm increases or decreases over the planning horizon. Nominal Net Worth -- equity at the end of each year equals total assets including land minus total debt from all sources. Net worth is not adjusted for inflation and averages are reported for each year in the planning horizon. Probability of Losing Real Net Worth -- is the number of times out of 100 that real net worth is less than the net worth for the farm at the beginning of 2000. The probability is reported for each year of the planning horizon to indicate whether the equity risk is increasing or decreasing from the base year of 1999.
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FIGURE 2. REPRESENTATIVE FARMS PRODUCING FEED GRAINS
IA NE MON MOC TN SC
TXNP
TXB
12
Feed Grain and Oilseed Farm Notes
Table 4. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Feed Grains.
IAG950 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average -0.995 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
IAG2400
NEG900
NEG1300
MOCG1700
MOCG3300
MONG1400
0.118
2.207
1.347
0.428
-0.034
-5.589
12.07
0
-26.99
-23.19
-11.59
0
95.29
4.77
0
-8.6
-5.19
-3.42
0
25.5
81.53
81.58
68.09
70.77
68.40
73.09
106.63
12.70
12.95
13.55
12.29
11.04
12.22
6.85
351.85 296.68 213.54 275.83 250.69 247.07 251.66 260.01 265.49
761.36 643.87 464.65 616.44 553.31 545.17 555.49 574.26 586.49
408.97 402.56 296.55 328.09 309.3 304.48 308.16 320.34 327.55
569.17 550.11 404.23 446.58 437.73 435.01 439.2 454.68 468.52
430.48 415.77 351.47 347.46 339.16 332.22 340.3 353.3 354.67
725.96 740.12 613.07 632.73 642.4 628.12 642.81 665.27 667.78
482.26 580.82 366.61 352.8 363.38 363.4 373.16 382.52 386.28
143.5 93.62 21.47 80.66 58.07 53.49 55.68 57.67 58
367.83 238.58 43 187.89 127.47 113.19 118.01 131.09 134.89
194.74 189.59 94.02 122.75 107.58 104.03 109.26 121.74 118.6
235.76 229.96 99.33 146.18 139.54 135.95 141.28 150.76 154.61
231.45 206.27 153.7 134.31 122.25 106.21 115.28 129.35 123.02
312.74 320.16 205.18 200.24 207.22 180.72 187.64 206.6 202.88
84.65 143.92 21.41 17.47 12.17 -1.45 -5.52 -5.82 -15.02
43 52 61 69 78
50 47 51 52 66
46 53 30 38 42
16 26 28 27 38
24 38 49 48 55
41 57 56 57 61
99 99 99 99 99
62.88 77.62 30.71 49.99 50.64 51.91 44.41 33.37 13.98
175.76 196.24 118.34 177 173.86 181.6 175.51 178.55 155.59
85.56 137.61 139.73 158.11 167.17 173.78 197.6 224.13 241.48
96.95 175.57 166.5 199.76 241.83 279.53 314.82 350.58 375.07
99.07 174.89 203.93 255.16 288.73 307.46 321.26 341.29 350.72
104.46 213.98 231.29 273.65 306.54 298.28 287.9 277.3 259.52
-25.94 -6.63 -87.5 -133.95 -220.67 -315.16 -424.65 -535.33 -657.9
12 18 27 34 49
3 5 10 16 19
1 1 1 3 4
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 5 9 9
99 99 99 99 99
833.55 889.46 899.34 946.59 962.45 964.01 941.08 916.36 901.37
1387.98 1494.37 1501.2 1603.91 1614.86 1635.02 1612.18 1614 1616.7
832.01 918.81 950.74 991.85 1008.79 1027.82 1057.68 1078.48 1103.58
1104.52 1200.27 1219.55 1268.74 1286.02 1308 1314.41 1333.65 1356.99
1678.51 1826.64 1954.5 2029.69 2056.77 2069.86 2054.14 2061.76 2077.45
2810.27 3056.5 3247.31 3345.37 3370.69 3378.39 3332.45 3318.93 3346.5
1544.15 1684.73 1630.85 1628.12 1573.14 1503.3 1385.32 1279.58 1175.54
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
32 34 55 63 64
43 37 50 47 50
44 33 25 22 18
37 32 31 28 23
31 26 39 42 38
45 40 55 58 51
74 82 92 97 99
Table 5. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Feed Grains.
TXNP1600 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average -4.749 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
TXNP6700
TXBG2000
TXBG2500
TNG900
TNG2400
SCG1500
SCG3500
0.392
-12.778
-2.043
-8.509
-0.842
-3.538
3.609
21.88
-9.95
51.04
24.42
40.6
13.82
26.34
-126.69
5.21
-0.63
15.38
9.9
15.4
2.06
5.42
-9.73
92.573
88.187
101.63
92.988
98.935
87.368
92.451
76.577
9.834
9.185
13.418
8.21
7.981
10.259
11.174
10.301
385.45 337.08 329.6 412.22 409.96 401.62 418.76 431.58 438.43
2044.45 1763.97 1344.08 1643.44 1547.12 1544.2 1569.19 1636.26 1673.66
230.66 509.95 343.73 373.65 320.59 323.35 326.86 340.54 347.61
263.48 472.3 466.58 398.19 306.95 296.73 297.53 310.24 265.18
323.01 322.14 227.38 210.72 288.27 257.92 261.54 270.81 274.73
875.71 818.59 576.29 534.81 715.05 636.45 652.53 673.8 684.04
615.53 633.66 315.59 386.32 481.17 467.13 479.77 495.56 506.02
1633.87 1656.14 873.38 1025.8 1268.96 1253.08 1285.35 1339.32 1363.21
110.49 76.7 18.56 79.19 73.89 57.41 64.96 64.23 64.07
801.24 561.52 140.16 340.86 235.99 208.52 216.85 257.8 266.92
-62.28 188.1 42.94 68.21 13.91 5.66 4.78 11.04 4.01
-10.2 193.5 197.11 133.1 49.42 37.38 34.89 44.38 22.46
82.86 81.76 -8.5 -28.31 42.8 9.88 6.08 4.48 0.91
333.59 286.45 46.3 3.69 169.39 83.2 86.47 103.3 100.29
213.15 228.64 -65.78 -11.99 66.03 42.79 42.31 50.54 52.89
681.59 709.45 -42.07 100.91 318.86 291.09 316.67 360.98 378.03
56 66 63 76 75
57 55 57 54 58
90 95 96 93 97
66 67 53 51 72
99 96 99 99 99
25 80 74 74 78
71 87 87 88 91
23 38 41 38 35
55.1 78.55 47.67 72.67 65.2 37 19.02 -17.31 -57.45
390.62 566 428.09 547.27 531.73 515.66 479.97 463.1 448.41
-95.18 39.62 13.11 17.13 -28.74 -85.41 -135.94 -166.38 -236.45
-47.61 80.63 177.55 237.1 229.7 216.96 212.01 212.3 181.53
27.63 44.56 -19.53 -79 -75.03 -110.49 -157.03 -223.43 -299.66
187.73 325.28 244.68 183.7 266.96 199.13 125.66 76.66 8.04
97.55 193.13 54.01 -38.64 -37.31 -85.95 -145.87 -196.31 -230.27
324.76 627.69 391.15 296.97 420.32 454.28 500.52 564.68 665.58
16 31 41 49 56
1 3 11 10 22
79 93 94 91 95
1 1 1 4 11
99 96 99 99 99
1 6 31 37 50
71 79 84 85 88
1 1 4 4 2
381.49 398.98 370.86 394.31 390.26 371.08 347.9 322.26 301.31
2024.42 2253.81 2218.06 2363.13 2369.04 2384.51 2369.68 2378.07 2414.4
241.73 377.34 352.46 362.49 322.24 274 221.9 193.97 131.16
637.62 808.74 933.5 953.96 940.19 929 904.06 890.18 858.28
553.25 599.69 561.47 502 503.47 465.37 409.37 350.86 289.03
1315.51 1490.45 1462.16 1401.63 1478.86 1432.59 1373.94 1367.23 1345.36
770.72 893.63 787.52 726.24 731.15 693.29 641.88 606.1 599.02
2432.19 2825.65 2713.31 2712.81 2845.53 2920 2976.17 3063.21 3208.92
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
53 59 54 56 59
51 50 45 55 45
85 93 95 92 95
68 67 77 74 82
46 70 86 88 96
25 47 52 55 53
50 69 74 74 76
23 16 19 12 4
Figure 3. Feed Grain Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14%
0 00 00 0 0 00 00 00 0 95 90 60 13 70 24 17 33 14 G EG P1 P6
3.61% 2.21% .12% -1.0% -4.75% -8.51% 1.35% .43% -.03% .39% -.84% -2.04% -3.54% -5.59%
-12.78%
00 00 00 90 00 15 20 25 G 24 35 00 SC G 0
EG
G
G
G
G
IA
G
G
TN
N
N
G
TX
TX
TX
M
M
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 95 90 00 60 13 70 90 00 15 24 17 33 14 20 G EG 25 P1 P6 G 24 35 SC G 00 0 0 0 0
M
25.50% 15.38% 9.90% 4.77% .0% -3.42% .0% -.63% -9.73% 5.21% 2.06% 5.42% 15.40%
-5.19% -8.60%
EG
TX
O
O
O
G
G
G
G
IA
G
G
TN
N
N
G
TX
TX
TX
M
M
M
TX
O
O
O
SC
IA
N
TN
B
C
C
N
N
B
G
SC
IA
N
TN
B
C
C
N
N
B
G
Figure 4. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Feed Grain Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
IAG950 Iowa Grain Farm
200 150 100
($1,000's)
IAG2400 Large Iowa Grain Farm
400 300 200
($1,000's) 69 27 34 78
50 0 -50 -100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
43 52 12 18 61 49
100 0 -100 -200 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
50 3 47 5 51 10 52 16 66 19
NEG900 Nebraska Farm
350 300 250
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
NEG1300 Large Nebraska Grain Farm
350 300 250 200 150 100 50
200 150 100 50 0 -50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
46 1 53 1 30 38 1 3 42 4
0 -50 1996 1997 1998 1999
16
1
26
1
28
1
27
38 1 1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 5. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Feed Grain Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
MOCG1700 Central Missouri Grain Farm
350 300 250
($1,000's)
MOCG3300 Large Central Missouri Grain Farm
600 500 400
($1,000's)
200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
24 38 1 1 49 1 48 1 55 1
300 200 100 0 -100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
41 1 57 1 56 5 57 9 61 9
MONG1400 Northwest Missouri Grain Farm
200 150 100
($1,000's)
50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99
Figure 6. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Feed Grain Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
TXNP1600 Texas Northern Plains Grain Farm
400 1000 300 800 200
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
TXNP6700 Large Texas Northern Plains Grain Farm
600 400 200 0
56
100 0 -100 -200 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
56 16 66 31 63 76 41 49 75
-200 -400 1996 1997 1998 1999
57 1
55 3
57 11
54 10
58 22
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
TXBG2000 Texas Northern Plains Grain Farm
250 200 150
($1,000's)
TXBG2500 Large Texas Northern Plains Grain Farm
250 200 150
100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
90 79 95 93 96 94 93 91 97 95 ($1,000's)
100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
66 1 67 1 53 1 51 4 72 11
Figure 7. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Feed Grain Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
TNG900 Tennessee Grain Farm
150 100 50
($1,000's)
TNG2400 Large Tennessee Grain Farm
400 300 200
($1,000's)
0 -50
99 99 96 96 99 99 99 99 99 99
100 0 -100 -200
80 25 1 6 74 31 74 37 78 50
-100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
SCG1500 South Carolina Grain Farm
300 250 200 150
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
SCG3500 Large South Carolina Grain Farm
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100
23 38 1 1 41 4 38 4 35 2
100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
71 71 87 79 87 84 88 85 91 88
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
FIGURE 8. REPRESENTATIVE FARMS PRODUCING WHEAT
WA ND
CO KSNW KSSW
22
Wheat Farm Notes
Table 6. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Wheat.
WAW1500 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average -1.903 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
WAW4250
NDW1760
NDW4850
KSSW1385
KSSW3180
KSNW2325
KSNW4300
COW2700
COW5440
-0.357
-0.391
0.402
0.17
4.995
-2.965
-2.959
5.41
2.073
29.98
18.58
1.99
-8.85
0
-84.76
30.45
55.58
-51.24
-68.14
8.63
2.11
0.86
-1.25
0
-22.62
15.08
11.86
-23.54
-15
85.317
82.077
78.457
78.607
60.871
57.818
88.84
91.302
56.307
61.356
7.699
7.605
9.73
7.28
16.129
11.878
11.392
10.732
8.679
7.804
480.96 440.98 344.2 320.01 338.49 336.41 344.73 357.52 359.63
1466.82 1113.23 915.4 846.29 858.35 853.16 877.21 904.57 912.58
273.58 210.27 231.34 246.79 224.75 224.96 231.09 238.47 239.22
861.94 824.77 725.02 687.69 683.63 685.51 710.45 733.96 744.38
131.84 257 154.32 163.33 138.28 135.7 137.6 142.79 142.17
304.03 563.3 380.5 347.94 371.47 364.95 369.88 385.03 382.35
260.3 293.04 276.18 276.21 217.31 211.46 219.53 223.6 227.62
512.8 604.69 442.76 585.21 462.45 453.81 470.44 479.63 484.92
227.01 188.83 191.26 272.13 218.78 215.83 222.49 230.23 231.45
381.81 371.61 370.17 554.16 445.42 439.41 448.94 468.93 468.54
205.91 157.46 66.55 46.8 59.81 55.22 62.51 73.67 72.05
798.7 440.49 225.35 168.75 182.24 175.99 198.78 206.52 200.19
112.65 50.5 64.03 79.78 58.87 56.68 62.44 60.15 57.61
333.92 298.77 198.02 172.69 170.76 169.42 189.53 196.01 198.7
48.05 166.15 70.38 82.91 56.8 53.88 56.42 62.53 62.47
84 340.8 177.4 147.05 173.62 160.64 163.33 175.51 168.79
86.18 116.99 105.08 96.92 43.88 35.78 41.5 36.59 35.53
146.08 219.41 72.96 184.89 71.75 51.54 62.19 61.35 58.33
121.25 81.38 77.81 150.5 97.21 94.49 101.78 109.72 110.69
176.93 150.78 125.55 284.78 178.44 169 178.28 199.99 201.1
86 83 80 77 84
61 67 61 64 65
52 55 40 63 54
56 46 52 50 56
63 73 57 69 51
1 20 13 24 25
73 76 83 93 85
78 65 68 74 77
52 9 16 18 15
31 37 32 33 29
89.26 136.1 115.64 71.94 15.66 -27.86 -60.63 -74.45 -88.43
360.04 443.61 463.91 449.52 428.5 375.07 337.27 288.23 258.03
47.46 52.72 67.3 88.86 90.12 85.69 96.64 85.87 87.4
155.82 254.82 254.43 228.99 223.94 228.3 237.2 257.69 265.4
6.51 82.97 97.05 117.92 116.74 111.02 110.48 106.9 112.95
15.81 210 264.55 307.97 396.6 453.38 528.51 605.83 670.55
26.01 61.08 80.19 80.05 55.98 22.72 -15.4 -72.85 -105.81
53.23 144.25 122.89 190.66 146.49 121.95 90.73 41.9 -9.57
36.62 56.53 70.07 129.03 135.09 170.05 206.35 246.52 290.74
81.77 126.02 145.29 256.71 292.09 321.64 362.52 411.22 468.57
41 62 68 70 73
1 1 10 18 23
1 9 9 18 15
2 10 15 14 19
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
7 39 55 75 75
1 7 23 36 45
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1147.75 1221.74 1244.33 1238.32 1215.9 1183.95 1140.29 1123 1122.81
3192.03 3434.69 3605.65 3673.92 3679.33 3669.4 3612.44 3596.79 3615.72
345.74 346.53 361.12 382.18 381.43 379.88 379.04 377.99 375.48
1549.94 1682.6 1745.83 1780.88 1776.63 1802.41 1806.46 1813.06 1820.47
446.39 543.2 575.43 606.27 612.01 613.05 605.67 600.73 612.7
829.62 1047.21 1113.65 1176.85 1246.21 1294.85 1356.05 1415.73 1473.82
828.81 908.59 922.96 946.95 925.2 899.5 860.48 824.73 808.22
1184.45 1317.45 1340.34 1432.99 1400.41 1365.62 1317.87 1270.75 1223.49
496.18 537.37 579 661.96 692.85 737.82 762.77 797.11 842.77
1637.67 1738.03 1839.29 2000.27 2030.32 2070.24 2099.77 2142.72 2212.17
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
73 75 85 81 79
51 52 59 62 56
53 52 51 53 53
56 42 38 38 35
44 46 51 58 47
6 5 1 2 1
73 80 80 88 84
70 80 83 88 91
10 1 3 1 1
33 20 17 11 4
Figure 9. Wheat Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
6% 5.0% 5.41%
4% 2.07% 2% .40% 0% -.36% -2% -1.90% -2.97% -4% WAW1500 WAW4250 NDW1760 NDW4850 KSSW1385 KSSW3180 KSNW2325 KSNW4300 COW2700 COW5440 -2.96% -.39% .17%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
20% 8.63% 2.11% 0% -1.25% -10% -15.0% -22.62% -30% WAW1500 WAW4250 NDW1760 NDW4850 KSSW1385 KSSW3180 KSNW2325 KSNW4300 COW2700 COW5440 -23.54% .86% 15.08% 11.86% 10%
.0%
-20%
Figure 10. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Wheat Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
WAW1500 Washington Wheat Farm
250 200 150
($1,000's)
WAW4250 Large Washington Wheat Farm
900 800 700 600
($1,000's)
500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200
61 1 67 1 61 10 64 18 65 23
100 50 0 -50 -100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
86 41 83 84 73
62
80 68
77 70
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
NDW1760 North Dakota Wheat Farm
200 600 500 150 400
($1,000's)
NDW4850 Large North Dakota Wheat Farm
($1,000's)
100
300 200 100 0
56 2 56 14 19
50
0
52 1
55 9
40
63 9 18
54 15
-100 -200
46 10
52 15
50
-50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 11. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Wheat Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
KSSW1385 Central Kansas Wheat Farm
180 160 140 120
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
KSSW3180 Large Central Kansas Wheat Farm
400 350 300 250 200 150 100
51 1 1
100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
63 1 73 1 57 1 69
50
1 1
20
1
13 1
24
1
25
1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
KSNW2325 Northwest Kansas Wheat Farm
200 150 200 100
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
KNSW4300 Large Northwest Kansas Wheat Farm
300 250
150 100 50 0
73 7 76 39 83 93 55 75 85 75
50 0 -50 -100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999
78 1
65 7
68 23
74 36
77 45
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 12. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Wheat Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
COW2700 Colorado Wheat Farm
250 450 400 200 350 300
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
COW5400 Large Colorado Wheat Farm
150
250 200 150
100
50
52 1 9 1 16 1 18 1 15 1
100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999
31 37 1 1 32 33 1 1 29 1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
FIGURE 13. REPRESENTATIVE FARMS PRODUCING COTTON
CA
TN TXSP TXRP TXB TXCB
30
Cotton Farm Notes
Table 7. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Cotton.
CAC2000 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average -2.241 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
CAC6000
TXSP1682
TXSP3697
TXRP2500
TXBC1400
TXCB1700
TNC1675
TNC3800
-1.583
3.01
6.238
-12.759
0.557
-15.487
-5.454
-1.927
128.73
262.56
-22.97
-120.94
29.73
-3.61
73.88
42.15
87.69
9.1
3.44
-4.53
-11.98
13.13
-1.57
20.75
7.81
6.66
95.686
99.829
78.071
73.961
101.836
74.631
107.599
95.247
99.374
8.279
3.913
7.309
10.096
15.554
11.2
14.553
11.406
11.137
1650.11 1638.87 1556.11 1580.85 1371.15 1383.95 1408 1439.7 1473.05
8296.44 7771.16 7831.98 7879.94 7312.56 7535.95 7637.37 7779.69 7917.24
203.24 303.33 181.21 534.93 495.55 504.65 514.88 526.14 537.26
739.54 1002.03 663.53 1074.33 964.42 984.45 1003.33 1034.31 1060.4
179.37 231.96 151.73 199.96 213.55 219.53 223.91 233.42 241.59
145.64 290.15 198.13 313 224.27 224.02 228.97 236.34 243.09
227.77 414.08 257.31 670.48 342.59 344.21 352.55 364.37 376.61
578.93 644.09 551.46 384.64 533.16 511.73 529.31 550.92 572.01
1528.16 1542.76 1339.14 1129.04 1253.58 1269.57 1308.09 1360.15 1425.16
334.11 352.1 278.82 302.43 90.27 67.86 76.76 88.33 100.64
1079.85 742.63 824.94 622.63 109.37 284.32 344.96 367.93 373.52
16.31 79.81 -11.86 166.11 112.5 111.23 120.71 130.78 131.48
102.37 299.45 36.01 393.34 257.11 266.38 286.5 308.92 321.29
12.73 50.36 -12.27 22.73 17.58 25.02 26.62 24.63 21.24
-19.87 120.28 32.83 135.42 60.91 57.9 63.71 70.32 64.5
-53.5 68.89 -35.38 245.81 4.05 -7.17 -8.28 -8.57 -13.63
90.95 169.23 75.37 -80.36 50.11 14.32 18.47 55.9 67.21
353.65 393.62 196.32 7.23 101.49 92.56 112.18 218.44 251.9
69 83 71 72 66
62 61 55 61 56
63 58 58 53 63
41 39 26 28 23
88 92 84 91 94
46 53 26 30 64
98 97 95 98 98
58 94 93 92 91
57 71 70 66 65
147.53 288.97 373.88 463.3 404.78 284.06 207.81 123.4 48.22
448.49 715.25 1066.17 1289.46 1046.68 935.92 830.87 757.07 684.76
-46.79 -32.04 -106.62 -7.95 -20.61 -8.68 8.75 24.62 32.86
1.25 158.23 55.7 277.39 310.25 360 449.82 537.19 640.22
-22.25 -7.13 -56.34 -72.3 -87.87 -102.54 -115.71 -144.74 -199.69
-54.26 18.29 10.13 73.87 77.43 79.89 98.96 122.07 116.2
-85.68 -50.35 -129.41 41.38 -39.74 -102.64 -157.65 -219.57 -295.29
30.13 109.51 110.66 -11.48 -23.91 -108.56 -164 -200.24 -238.7
223.51 401.64 418.22 242.73 165.61 -5.85 -94.61 -107.03 -133.69
1 9 22 30 36
15 26 35 34 35
63 54 47 42 42
1 1 1 1 1
88 90 80 88 85
1 1 1 1 7
78 93 94 97 98
58 84 90 87 88
24 46 50 52 48
3175.22 3457.97 3725.99 3906.71 3836.24 3751.36 3625.83 3525.1 3476.19
9775.43 10612.48 11658.2 12199.3 11946.61 11849.22 11512.35 11307.2 11256.7
485.42 524.19 472.64 588.64 593.63 611.95 631.77 653.37 678.62
1025.73 1222.04 1176.1 1447.99 1489.93 1572.54 1684.05 1775.65 1903.53
264.9 273.85 231.52 226.67 208.36 185.24 160.63 124.56 82.23
411.26 495.77 497.54 566.17 569.73 572.95 574.42 583.28 583.13
293.8 333.17 262.37 441.73 359.66 301.18 236.74 172.72 99.88
728.57 817.47 835.68 718.55 711.61 648.26 579.59 546.23 523.67
3326.55 3584.76 3734.53 3628.61 3575.61 3462.8 3333.97 3294.87 3285.73
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
74 85 91 93 88
60 59 56 57 57
47 38 26 28 22
39 21 12 6 3
64 62 71 76 81
49 46 44 41 39
98 99 99 98 98
50 78 85 85 83
56 68 70 64 59
Figure 14. Cotton Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
10% 6.24% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% CAC2000 CAC6000 TXSP1682 TXSP3697 TXRP2500 TXBC1400 TXCB1700 TNC1675 TNC3800 -12.76% -15.49% -2.24% -1.58% -5.45% -1.93% 3.01% .56%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
30% 20.75% 20% 13.13% 10% 9.10% 3.44% 0% -1.57% -4.53% -10% -11.98% -20% CAC2000 CAC6000 TXSP1682 TXSP3697 TXRP2500 TXBC1400 TXCB1700 TNC1675 TNC3800 7.82% 6.66%
Figure 15. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Cotton Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
CAC2000 California Cotton Farm
500 400 300
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
CAC6000 Large California Cotton Farm
4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000
200 100 0 -100 -200
1 69 83 9 71 22 72 30 66
36
-2000 -3000
62 15
61 26
55
35
61
34
56
35
-300 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
TXSP1682 Texas Southern Plains Cotton Farm
300 250 200
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
TXSP3697 Large Texas Southern Plains Cotton Farm
800 700 600 500 400 300 200
42
150 100 50 0 -50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
63 63 58 54 58 47 53 42 63
100 0 1996 1997 1998 1999
41 1
39 1
26
1
28
1
23
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 16. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Cotton Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
TXRP2500 Texas Rolling Plains Cotton Farm
250 200 150
($1,000's)
TXBL1400 Texas Blacklands Cotton Farm
160 140 120 100
($1,000's)
100 50 0 -50 -100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
88 88 92 90 84 80 91 88 94 85
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
46 1 53 1 64 26 1 30 1 7
TXCB1700 Texas Coastal Bend Cotton Farm
300 250 200 150
($1,000's)
100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
98 78 97 93 95 94 98 97 98 98
Figure 17. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Cotton Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
TNC1675 Tennessee Cotton Farm
300 250 200 150
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
TNC3800 Large Tennessee Cotton Farm
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
58 58 94 84 93 90 92 87 91 88
-200 -400 -600 1996 1997 1998 1999
57 24
71
46
70
50
66
52
65
48
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
FIGURE 18. REPRESENTATIVE FARMS PRODUCING RICE
CA
MO AR
LA TX
38
Rice Farm Notes
Table 8. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Rice.
CAR424 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average -4.505 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
CAR1365
TXR2118
TXR3750
MOR1900
MOR4000
ARR2645
ARR3400
LAR1100
-6.208
-0.747
-2.898
-14.776
-5.425
1.876
2.341
-20.351
35.28
138.82
6.22
66.18
166.03
274.77
-49.62
-108.99
50.42
12.58
15.32
1.6
5.8
30.88
17.33
-8.18
-13.36
18.95
90.562
101.525
84.638
95.713
114.923
101.669
72.998
66.046
101.435
24.142
24.43
25.282
23.089
17.39
16.516
17.013
22.205
20.247
324.76 354.94 317.8 306.7 299.43 292.79 296.11 301.2 304.43
1012.62 1112 982.05 939.29 925.65 906.16 917.26 933.87 944.43
482.24 472.21 465.41 473.81 402.01 391.02 393.07 398.15 399.78
1371.09 1358.38 1325.98 1344.02 1170.89 1142.05 1152.55 1167.46 1171.06
691.5 658.18 577.76 600.39 534.86 522.95 533.03 542.41 555.24
2007.29 1917.77 1679.96 1741.95 1561.86 1547.98 1573.23 1606.71 1638.65
842.25 748.01 578.48 733.84 599.92 594.95 607.49 620.15 629.38
1118.92 1008.67 815.71 1039.1 809.9 794.21 806.53 830.75 838.95
342 319.82 287.16 310.47 267.11 262.45 267.96 272.3 275.24
73.76 94.3 68.42 57.81 40.03 29.29 27.44 28.72 27.64
128.56 202.9 114.82 83.93 38.17 5.93 0.99 -25.96 -44.15
139.1 132.88 136.14 149 81.69 68.53 65.95 58.6 56.92
273.05 267.51 253.66 284.07 113.51 71.66 61.37 60.61 34.17
133.55 104.56 26.54 46.34 -26.87 -62.15 -71.66 -88.02 -103.29
493.26 387.9 167.78 228.51 48.59 -0.46 -5.72 -6.41 -23.55
381.51 295.84 138.69 292.18 172.4 162.48 174.05 178.12 179.46
564.55 460.51 281.03 511.53 297.82 276.65 287.43 295.13 298.67
98.08 76.96 42.96 64.57 17.92 9.45 7 -2.24 -9.81
96 99 99 99 99
66 84 85 99 99
35 40 38 64 68
70 69 81 74 89
99 99 99 99 99
88 98 98 99 99
27 30 26 27 29
28 28 21 39 28
88 97 99 99 99
Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 17.28 1997 39.27 1998 36.46 1999 23.96 2000 -2.34 2001 -41.37 2002 -79.63 2003 -117.29 2004 -147.2 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
42.11 129.57 132.51 105.95 77.74 23.91 -38.33 -192.84 -350.68
53.11 96.95 136.81 183.4 193.38 203.36 214.74 205.5 192.32
95.43 196.64 252.81 333.36 295.78 253.47 175.64 124.41 13.6
40.91 49.93 -23.78 -83.91 -206.13 -379.63 -587.01 -803.13 -1026.62
240.79 350.13 253.77 222.57 -23.24 -360.65 -671.35 -975.25 -1300.5
192.21 299.57 302.06 415.6 447.15 486.57 532.06 576.86 629.37
256.57 409.41 453.1 634.48 687.44 752.32 839.05 895.39 975.36
32.96 46.65 33.69 28.6 -21.45 -82.53 -155.16 -247.61 -330.73
47 96 99 99 99
11 35 54 93 99
1 1 1 1 2
1 7 20 35 49
99 99 99 99 99
59 93 97 99 99
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
67 87 98 99 99
532.09 576.66 602.23 607.84 587.5 559.8 526.29 491.42 471.89
1536.03 1677.85 1754.74 1775.63 1722.12 1649.17 1540.54 1375.41 1226.96
442.44 492.06 544.01 600.3 601.72 605.57 604.96 587.29 579.09
1515.41 1694.12 1841.05 1983.34 1957.86 1931.4 1846.15 1801.4 1699.48
1189.47 1222.31 1189.29 1163.41 1036.91 876.06 685.52 500.87 304.49
4356.34 4600.66 4721.05 4810.8 4605.15 4356.51 4023.94 3755.97 3513.19
1477.62 1633.81 1701.27 1848.39 1875.7 1909.83 1932.98 1965.79 2025.98
2366.07 2611.8 2766.36 3026.75 3083.81 3175.45 3241.03 3301.59 3387.97
242.05 256.79 250.01 258.98 212.4 167.47 114.43 60.39 -4.56
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
90 98 99 99 99
87 98 99 99 99
52 50 49 58 61
63 60 72 75 83
98 99 99 99 99
85 95 99 99 99
30 23 21 12 9
22 9 7 3 2
86 91 98 97 99
Figure 19. Rice Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
4% 0% -.75% -4% -4.51% -8% -12% -16% -20% -20.35% -24% CAR424 CAR1365 TXR2118 TXR3750 MOR1900 MOR4000 ARR2645 ARR3400 LAR1100 -14.78% -6.21% -2.90% -5.43% 1.88% 2.34%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
40% 30.88% 30% 20% 12.58% 10% 1.60% 0% -10% -20% CAR424 CAR1365 TXR2118 TXR3750 MOR1900 MOR4000 ARR2645 ARR3400 LAR1100 5.80% 17.33% 18.95%
15.33%
-8.18% -13.36%
Figure 20. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Rice Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
CAR424 California Rice Farm
120 100 80
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
CAR1365 Large California Rice Farm
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250
66 11 84 35 85 54 99 93 99 99
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
96 47 99 96 99 99 99 99 99 99
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
TXR2118 Texas Rice Farm
200 500 400 150 300
($1,000's)
TXR3750 Large Texas Rice Farm
($1,000's)
100
200 100 0 -100 -200
70 1 69 7 81 20 74 35 89 49
50
68 1 2
0
35 1 40 1 38 1
64
-50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-300 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 21. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Rice Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
MOR1900 Missouri Rice Farm
200 150 100 50
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
MOR4000 Large Missouri Rice Farm
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500
88 98 93 59 98 97 99 99 99 99
0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
ARR2645 Arkansas Rice Farm
450 400 500 350 300
($1,000's)
ARR3400 Large Arkansas Rice Farm
600
400
($1,000's)
250 200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
27 1 30 1 26 1 27 1 29
300 200 100
39 1 1
1
28
1
28
1
21
28
1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 22. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Rice Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
LAR1100 Louisiana Rice Farm
120 100 80 60
($1,000's)
40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
88 67 97 87 99 98 99 99 99 99
FIGURE 23. REPRESENTATIVE FARMS PRODUCING MILK
WA VT
NYC ID WI MIC MIE NYW
CA MO
NM
TXE TXC
GAN GAS FLN
FLS
46
Dairy Notes
Table 9. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Milk.
CAD1710 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average 8.853 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
NMD2000
WAD185
WAD900
IDD750
IDD2100
TXCD400
TXCD825
TXED210
TXED650
0.23
7.351
6.134
7.93
11.38
-8.947
11.896
8.111
8.998
-1315.65
-13.09
-137.29
-395.2
-391.81
-1989.58
95.94
-867.88
-107.28
-330.47
-24.07
-0.23
-19.92
-12.37
-16.62
-30.39
8.99
-24.13
-19.26
-18.78
71.557
96.538
72.443
82.951
79.485
65.594
104.454
71.486
72.39
76.607
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5296.79 5048.24 6052.6 5568.89 5281.34 5360.07 5424.89 5598.93 5668.94
5632.94 5440.8 6278.79 5992.05 5509.5 5523.25 5645.81 5805.74 5886.29
755.85 711.53 830.11 698.6 671.05 671.56 685.28 705.38 713.45
3335.89 3138.77 3668.36 3412.03 3172.4 3096.14 3159.77 3253.26 3291.33
2368.79 2180.83 2615.65 2391.66 2291.77 2293.81 2344.6 2422.18 2438.52
6509.09 5966.74 7379.16 6668.04 6362.68 6361.67 6505.14 6723.88 6783.84
1018.91 957.79 1174.5 1121.34 1032.41 1044.44 1061.23 1092.52 1106.68
3510.88 3291.11 3929.31 3767.83 3479.67 3519.55 3576.54 3681.87 3727
558.04 525.85 603.84 580.71 539.44 545.8 554.33 569.88 575.59
1772.49 1663.26 1918.82 1841.3 1702.53 1722.56 1750.39 1800.65 1821.56
956.44 691.02 2101.29 1788.72 1520.3 1557.74 1534.93 1625.12 1597.99
113.77 -386.18 935.42 956.64 355.02 235.86 228.56 267.36 207.95
208.96 165.4 346.79 256.99 199.37 192.29 192.55 198.55 196.78
392.21 137.32 927.63 714.4 656.36 544.95 547.37 585.26 550.09
327.53 133.35 727.74 595.91 502.96 486.18 493.64 529.18 511.46
1683.64 1108.87 2944.24 2585.28 2269.89 2223.57 2266.04 2400.88 2358.95
-72.34 -140.68 112.58 82.69 -11.77 -25.92 -40.57 -46.56 -69.13
700.68 479.86 1285.64 1319.49 1027.04 1027.68 1029.14 1079.81 1065.94
121.42 101.64 201.12 192.86 152.69 153.93 156.75 165.77 163.64
306.59 220.43 565.8 551.53 416.47 422.42 423.98 447.78 439.77
1 1 1 1 1
50 55 54 57 62
5 2 10 18 17
8 14 19 19 28
7 9 12 17 11
1 1 1 1 1
99 99 99 99 98
1 1 1 1 1
10 8 7 7 12
11 11 14 13 14
368.43 610.68 1757.92 2629.08 3416.46 4256.02 5101.78 6020.7 6933.19
-32.49 -514.83 123.58 532.09 531.9 489.24 443.39 418.47 314.1
103.8 165.82 350.05 456.73 544.09 634.3 717.27 795.33 874.56
168.26 156.42 687.33 1006.28 1349.36 1616.94 1892.98 2206.97 2451.59
128.08 118.65 512.54 789.74 1035.47 1265.92 1481.12 1690.17 1956.24
841.71 1257.99 2870.25 4145.65 5307.75 6448.45 7600.22 8829.72 10214.05
-126.65 -315.62 -254.36 -242.58 -310.22 -386.52 -478.57 -588.95 -738.68
389.54 599.62 1365.05 2068.97 2615.22 3199.45 3789.69 4415.22 5041.17
47.07 79.75 179.15 258.4 317.79 385.36 454.84 530.27 602.57
145.9 218.05 520.08 763.41 948.93 1155.6 1365.12 1595.68 1821.82
1 1 1 1 1
11 18 21 34 37
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
99 99 99 98 98
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
6887.39 7470.29 8862.17 9931.57 10867.16 11768.19 12591.3 13517.42 14357.29
4394.31 4170.59 4901.28 5446.37 5626.45 5667.39 5659.58 5694.65 5520.36
852.44 952.76 1159.72 1286.3 1389.18 1489.13 1583.58 1680.87 1762.74
3600.18 3756.39 4383.23 4751.12 5154.75 5425.99 5694.88 6010.9 6221.12
2385.54 2539.04 3013.22 3395.24 3740.44 4021.97 4273.94 4550.79 4751.3
7259.24 8130.61 10009.15 11583.15 13041.14 14350.6 15622.61 17017.2 18211.42
1103.42 961.52 1039.75 1078.06 1036.53 964.22 868.35 759.86 597.01
2963.94 3314.91 4113.99 4885 5522.44 6128.39 6716.82 7247.93 7806.66
628.09 709.25 828.35 930.27 1010.62 1092.29 1162.32 1244 1310.22
1711.69 1883.01 2254.29 2576.61 2828.14 3068.68 3288.67 3541.99 3743.59
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1 1 1 1 1
32 33 33 39 41
4 1 1 1 1
9 3 1 1 3
5 1 1 1 2
1 1 1 1 1
65 82 85 88 91
1 1 1 1 1
9 2 1 1 1
9 3 2 1 1
Table 10. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Milk.
WID70 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average 4.258 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
WID600
MIED200
MICD140
NYWD800
NYWD1200
NYCD110
NYCD400
VTD134
VTD350
-2.427
2.282
0.966
6.726
8.244
7.869
9.443
3.493
3.783
-30.21
64.9
-53.7
-15.21
-405.15
-716.24
-89.05
-440.68
-27.7
-113.31
-12.37
3.55
-7.7
-3.21
-14.18
-16.59
-22.86
-30.33
-7.05
-9.15
68.725
97.429
81.541
80.791
80.094
79.215
65.345
63.68
79.206
82.617
0
0
0.109
0.057
0
0
0
0
0
0
233.76 218.56 253.82 247.36 235.84 238.77 242.44 250.78 253.39
1853.63 1731.63 2025.21 1854.47 1761.67 1782.4 1812.12 1875.53 1898.6
682.21 639.29 724.93 708.24 675.05 682.79 692.74 713.87 722.33
458.18 433.98 487.41 476.86 458.61 464.21 470.64 484.83 488.72
3007.16 2690.78 3048.9 2947.99 2769.26 2801.38 2846.72 2922.05 2949.22
4370.39 4084.71 4687.71 4464.74 4189.52 4227.28 4298.3 4412.41 4457.42
391.47 364.79 420.6 399.63 376.65 381.89 388.5 398.55 401.96
1443.88 1352.05 1548.97 1472.15 1405.84 1426.46 1447.33 1486.05 1498.88
394.86 381.36 426.54 408.22 404.43 380.57 386.98 398.65 402.9
1242.79 1191.06 1346.78 1283.94 1272.2 1192.13 1212.29 1249.26 1265.96
52.24 52.9 105.86 90.79 72.5 74.19 77.66 84.01 85.61
47.99 -99.07 283.25 208.2 84.98 72.78 61.75 87.54 58.93
72.06 49.17 182.42 180.13 132.32 132.04 133.63 143.09 141.71
47.73 37.33 117.95 118.04 88.96 90.12 91.55 100.94 92.7
597.84 300.63 801.62 776.46 555.16 578.6 577.57 610.74 592.07
855.7 575.86 1346.89 1198.98 896.54 894.34 912.36 959.96 921.22
115.01 89.33 169.84 159.7 130.53 134.45 136.1 140.97 141.08
459.13 371.16 642.08 600.37 517.3 526.39 528.82 551.94 542.14
44.77 35.36 120.45 114.4 101.78 76.06 76.27 83.06 81.93
150.32 107.05 346.62 317.36 281.51 191.94 197.28 219.97 216.12
26 34 31 25 26
67 79 83 75 87
26 36 47 35 38
28 29 41 28 54
11 1 11 2 10
5 2 1 1 3
1 1 1 1 2
1 1 1 1 1
8 38 38 27 31
9 27 30 19 26
8.8 14.43 52.23 74.63 87.88 99.52 112.55 128.71 147.71
-71.9 -267.41 -88.11 -48.39 -92.52 -156.5 -244.68 -305.28 -421.36
24.01 24.34 110.8 177.38 213.32 249.34 277.69 314.64 352.86
5.7 -1.89 51.45 89.12 106.57 123.1 131.1 144.58 145.51
280.33 348.35 779.96 1134.95 1354.94 1621.43 1877.09 2162.55 2420.09
445.75 676.94 1407.27 1993.64 2408.95 2867.3 3339.81 3856.61 4329.4
40.2 61.5 135.46 193.99 245.8 297 346.37 400.44 448.28
215.67 365.49 692.82 966.91 1214.43 1479.13 1738.35 2014.93 2270.15
-10.39 -27.86 12.88 31.38 62.24 68.52 80.31 96.63 110.34
32.64 41.03 204.92 315.16 405.39 446.93 493.78 556.08 613.48
1 1 1 2 2
67 71 74 71 79
1 1 1 1 2
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 2 3 2 3
1 1 1 1 1
438.91 472.02 535.18 579.21 607.94 635 652.26 677.99 703.96
2094.49 1997.29 2213.64 2302.99 2317.55 2274.61 2202.44 2157.39 2027.67
1335.46 1389.75 1513.86 1606.08 1661.86 1706.97 1727.15 1767.05 1793.06
1105.71 1160 1199.57 1241.45 1269.23 1288.94 1292.79 1307.39 1304.11
3032.7 3274.97 3816.59 4273.61 4584.15 4900.13 5169.93 5479.77 5722.53
4190.53 4675.71 5561.9 6308.01 6877.92 7419.61 7926.81 8499.65 8926.57
547.75 604.06 691.62 766.22 836.41 899.01 958.52 1022.27 1069.91
1886.93 2121.23 2494.1 2808.8 3085.97 3361.99 3620.29 3898.94 4143.5
437.18 479.54 542.26 594.07 638.86 655.14 669.92 691.87 699.25
1518.63 1656.76 1852.61 2017.71 2153.28 2218.31 2274.27 2353.43 2404.34
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
14 5 5 2 2
44 53 55 63 63
25 12 14 9 9
33 22 20 14 23
11 1 1 1 1
4 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
15 13 9 4 7
13 4 6 2 4
Table 11. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Milk.
MOD85 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average 0.762 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
MOD330
GAND200
GASD700
FLND500
FLSD1650
9.181
4.127
8.162
13.404
-16.741
-4.39
-309.64
-60.19
-586.54
-482.99
491.21
-1.76
-30.46
-8.74
-23.22
-27.37
9.11
79.24
60.549
81.206
69.778
65.819
99.233
0
0
0
0
0
0
227.47 215.04 244.58 251.14 240.92 244.21 247.84 255.12 257.01
936.32 903.87 1061.03 1029.34 982.5 995.74 1011.1 1041.99 1052.3
675.27 633.57 714.28 691.42 667.48 676.13 685.44 703.43 712.16
2440.05 2298.05 2579.48 2528.01 2446.62 2478.98 2513.36 2578.22 2610.12
1804.29 1718.95 1896.03 1756.63 1707.26 1730.88 1757.92 1800.5 1826.9
5075.95 4840.59 5344.99 5363.46 5211.05 5284.49 5368.57 5501.01 5582.69
3.63 -9.35 48.13 68.35 49.73 53.83 53.42 57.22 56.35
247.11 227.28 443.08 458.4 393.76 405.96 406.06 421.53 418.71
-52.07 -91.76 116.49 145.27 124.85 138.51 133.23 138.44 133.53
600.78 438.96 840.36 809.29 749.69 764.71 772.31 798.57 796.16
48.69 -32.23 494.97 501.16 587.1 617.93 610.21 621.8 621.5
-391.04 -856.8 160.48 369.64 99.11 107.84 69.68 74.25 67.22
99 99 99 97 98
2 1 1 1 3
83 40 26 31 25
1 1 1 2 2
1 1 1 1 1
99 99 99 99 99
-35.13 -86.17 -88.46 -76.23 -84.2 -87.8 -94.05 -93.77 -96.77
99.91 176.15 380.13 558.34 714.24 886.64 1056.18 1234.5 1398.31
-86.07 -213.61 -135.07 -77.14 -39.85 8.73 50.4 92.28 129.56
270.53 419.88 813.29 1148.45 1474.53 1816.72 2156.02 2505.76 2859.95
-20.03 -96.4 198.88 438.79 742.84 1063.13 1374.05 1688.83 2015.05
-670.56 -1671.77 -1981.64 -2165.57 -2528.45 -2886.83 -3280.14 -3671.7 -4076.78
99 99 99 97 97
1 1 1 1 1
83 40 22 19 13
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
99 99 99 99 99
546.58 527.02 555.11 593.67 602.73 614.17 611.79 618.61 617.57
1393.53 1530.04 1774.76 1996.37 2185.49 2381.16 2559.08 2754.61 2918.79
896.4 820.06 939.66 1025.67 1080.23 1134.76 1169.47 1209.68 1239.89
3118.99 3361.92 3810.02 4198.21 4564.89 4915.49 5240.24 5600.4 5923.64
1603.4 1599.36 1937.9 2213.53 2550.19 2880.19 3181.13 3400.89 3704.73
3173.9 2352.05 2203.38 2140.38 1866.64 1553.78 1152.2 782.16 349.54
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
40 26 35 31 38
3 1 1 1 1
15 6 9 5 4
2 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
82 92 96 92 96
Figure 24. Dairy Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
15% 12% 8.85% 9% 6% 3% .23% 0% -3% -6% -9% -8.95% -12% CAD1710 NMD2000 WAD185 WAD900 IDD750 IDD2100 TXCD400 TXCD825 TXED210 TXED650 7.35% 6.13% 7.93% 11.38% 11.90% 8.11% 9.0%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -19.92% -25% -30% -35% CAD1710 NMD2000 WAD185 WAD900 IDD750 -30.39% IDD2100 TXCD400 TXCD825 TXED210 TXED650 -24.07% -24.13% -12.37% -16.62% -19.26% -18.78% -.23% 8.99%
Figure 25. Dairy Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
12% 10% 8.24% 8% 6% 4.26% 4% 2.28% 2% 0% -2% -4% WID70 -2.43% WID600 MIED200 MICD140 NYWD800 NYWD1200 NYCD110 NYCD400 VTD134 VTD350 .97% 3.49% 3.78% 6.73% 7.87% 9.44%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -30.33% -35% WID70 WID600 MIED200 MICD140 NYWD800 NYWD1200 NYCD110 NYCD400 VTD134 VTD350 -12.37% -7.70% -14.18% -16.59% -22.86% -3.21% -7.05% -9.15% 3.55%
Figure 26. Dairy Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
15% 10% 5% .76% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% MOD85 MOD330 GAND200 GASD700 FLND500 -16.74% FLSD1650 9.18% 4.13% 8.16% 13.40%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% -18% -21% -24% -27% -30% -33% 9.11%
-1.76% -8.74%
-23.23% -27.37% MOD85 -30.46% MOD330 GAND200 GASD700 FLND500 FLSD1650
Figure 27. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Dairy Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
CAD1710 California Dairy Farm
2500 2000 1500 2000 1000
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
NMD2000 New Mexico Dairy Farm
1500 1000
500 0 -500
500 -1000
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
50 11
55 18
54 21
57
34
62
37
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-1500 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
WAD185 Washington Dairy Farm
400 350 300
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
WAD900 Large Washington Dairy Farm
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400
18 17
250 200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
5 1 2 1 10 1 1 1
200
8 1
14 1
19
1
19
1
28
1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 28. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Dairy Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
IDD750 Idaho Dairy Farm
1200 1000 3500 800
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
IDD2100 Large Idaho Dairy Farm
4500 4000
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000
7 1 9 1 12 1 17 1 11 1
600 400 200 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
500 0 1996 1997 1998 1999
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 29. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Dairy Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
TXCD400 Central Texas Dairy Farm
200 100 1400 0
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
TXCD825 Large Central Texas Dairy Farm
1800 1600
1200 1000 800 600
99 99 99 99 99 99 99 98 98 98
-100 -200 -300 -400 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
400 200 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TXED210 East Texas Dairy Farm
300 250 700 200
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
TXED650 Large East Texas Dairy Farm
900 800
600 500 400 300 200
150 100 50
10 1 8 1 7 1 7 1 12 1
100 0 1996 1997 1998 1999
11 1
11 1
14 1
13 1
14 1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 30. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Dairy Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
WID70 Wisconsin Dairy Farm
160 140 120
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
WID600 Wisconsin Dairy Farm
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200
79 71 83 74 75 71 87 79
100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
26 34 1 1 31 1 25 2 26 2
67 67
-300 -400 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
MIED200 Eastern Michigan Dairy Farm
350 300 250
($1,000's)
MICD140 Central Michigan Dairy Farm
180 160 140 120
($1,000's)
200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
26 36 1 1 47 1 35 1 38 2
100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
28 1 29 41 1 1 28 1 54 1
Figure 31. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Dairy Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
NYWD800 Western New Dairy York Farm
1200 1000 1400 800
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
NYWD1200 Large Western New York Dairy Farm
1800 1600
1200 1000 800 600 400
11 1 1 1 11 1 2 1 10 1
600 400 200 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
200 0 1996 1997 1998 1999
5 1
2 1
1 1
1 1
3 1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
NYCD110 Central New York Dairy Farm
250 900 800 200 700 600
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
NYCD400 Large Central New York Dairy Farm
150
500 400 300
100
50
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
200 100 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
Figure 32. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Dairy Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
VTD134 Vermont Dairy Farm
160 140 120
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
VTD350 Large Vermont Dairy Farm
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
8 1 38 2 38 3 27 2 31 3
50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999
9 1
27
1
30
1
19
1
26
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
MOD85 Missouri Dairy Farm
120 100 80
($1,000's)
MOD330 Large Missouri Dairy Farm
700 600 500
($1,000's)
60 40 20 0 -20 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
99 99 99 99 99 99 97 97 98 97
400 300 200 100
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 33. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Dairy Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
GAND200 Northern Georgia Dairy Farm
300 250 200 150
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
GASD700 Southern Georgia Dairy Farm
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400
100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
83 83 40 40 26 22 31 19 25 13
200
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
FLND500 Northern Florida Dairy Farm
1000 800 600
($1,000's)
FLSD1650 Southern Florida Dairy Farm
1000
500
400 200 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
($1,000's)
0
-500
99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99
-1000
-200 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-1500 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
FIGURE 34. REPRESENTATIVE FARMS PRODUCING BEEF CATTLE
MT WY
CO MO
62
Beef Cattle Notes
Table 12. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Beef Cattle.
MTB400 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average 1.525 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
WYB300
COB300
MOB150
0.912
-0.484
0.841
-36.07
-5.01
26
-4.96
-21.99
-3.78
16.12
-4.17
51.959
78.353
69.085
70.39
0
0
0
4.556
103.08 139.54 134.39 142.32 157.76 162.84 166.67 170.16 162.52
87.35 114.94 111.12 117.17 127.75 131.72 134.69 137.21 131.4
135.71 151.57 153.2 155.81 166.7 172.45 175.96 178.16 173.3
97.27 119.45 107.83 114.92 116.37 117.04 119.87 121.85 119.61
14.89 50.38 44.58 63 75.83 79.26 83.44 84.92 79.57
-3.63 23.17 -3.87 21.97 28.71 29.35 32.79 33 29.02
12.59 31.1 37.41 42.05 46.73 54.08 57.99 59.45 55.31
15.88 37.75 17.52 33.57 33.73 34.72 37.08 39.88 38.14
1 6 2 1 5
99 99 97 94 87
25 15 14 14 18
88 79 74 53 43
-9.21 5.35 14.21 43.77 84.97 119.84 159.59 198.03 232.29
-22.89 -21.99 -49.46 -46.79 -48.72 -48.06 -50.8 -49.49 -50.63
-13.71 -13.5 -11.26 2.75 11.12 28.37 44.52 59.52 72.13
-7.41 2.1 -18.91 -17.98 -17.68 -15.65 -14.64 -2.68 8.88
1 1 1 1 1
99 99 97 94 86
19 5 3 2 1
88 78 67 52 40
1504.21 1641.9 1721.07 1789.61 1845.82 1887.4 1899.88 1920.71 1930.02
533.08 594.01 583.72 602.57 627.11 635.11 635.89 642.26 631.35
2634 2810 2946.34 3022.59 3035.37 3043.43 2997.59 2971.87 2955.58
580.51 630.44 636.19 653.35 662.92 672.98 672.68 682.81 682.22
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
20 9 8 4 5
28 27 27 24 26
36 37 65 81 91
32 29 28 21 25
Figure 35. Cattle Ranches
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
2.0% 1.53% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -.48% -1.0% MTB400 WYB300 COB300 MOB150 .91% .84%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -21.99% MTB400 WYB300 COB300 MOB150 -3.78% -4.17% 16.12%
Figure 36. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Cattle Ranches
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
MTB400 Montana Cattle Ranch
140 120 100
($1,000's)
WYB300 Wyoming Cattle Ranch
70 60 50
($1,000's)
80 60 40 20
1 1 6 1 2 1 1 1 5 1
40 30 20 10 0 -10
99 99 99 99 97 97 94 94 87 86
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
COB300 Colorado Cattle Ranch
90 80 70 60
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
MOB150 Southwest Missouri Cattle Ranch
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
88 88 79 78 74 67
50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
25 19 15 5 14 3 14 2 18 1
10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
53 52
43 40
2003
2004
FIGURE 37. REPRESENTATIVE FARMS PRODUCING HOGS
IL
IN
NC
68
Hog Farm Notes
Table 13. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the November 1999 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Hogs.
ILH180 Annual Change Real Net Worth (%) 1999-2004 Average 3.862 Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 ($1,000) Net Income Adjustment (NIA) 1999-2004 (% Receipts) Cost to Receipts Ratio (%) 2000-2004 Average Govt Payments/Receipts (%) 2000-2004 Average Total Cash Receipts ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Net Cash Farm Income ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ending Cash Reserves ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nominal Net Worth ($1000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
ILH650
INH200
INH1200
NCH350
NCH13268
6.199
-7.826
4.391
13.146
27.562
-45.13
-339.98
91.45
-174
-164.78
-5596.09
-8.88
-19.04
20.45
-5.66
-22.12
-20.33
74.348
69.715
103.391
87.619
69.751
79.823
4.005
3.601
5.88
3.139
0
0
710.05 708.95 484.89 487.94 474.73 506.49 520.94 531.82 519.09
2424.98 2412.37 1477.5 1533.58 1662.94 1812.05 1849.72 1843.51 1757.42
611.23 606.05 401.39 421.99 417 450.26 460.86 462.58 445.17
3252.97 3986.94 2598.95 2672.12 2852.6 3109.78 3190.4 3185.06 3041.92
999.94 964.25 634.78 592.54 683.71 759.31 778.87 771.64 730.41
36969.22 35634.61 23433.1 21884.03 25254.86 28067.19 28792.13 28526.71 26999
240.72 244.78 69.5 105.64 113.67 138.7 148.21 143.99 130.57
898.97 976.61 287.39 307.53 449.71 597.01 624.15 604.62 496.04
134.67 141.17 -4.36 11.22 -10.63 9.64 1.89 -9.05 -40.04
632.21 422.94 0.68 206.13 252.52 479.98 503.07 486.63 340.85
268.89 327.29 91.74 98.62 184.38 253.23 265.47 251.75 205.29
10293.82 10154.74 1051.68 1328.59 4347.49 6860.48 7123.12 6420.94 4484.51
17 13 23 47 54
15 2 1 2 27
99 99 99 99 99
99 82 71 62 67
5 1 1 1 12
6 1 1 2 19
68.8 142.71 81.77 55.78 86.55 123.07 151.69 160.86 163.43
317.41 626.6 522.08 418.88 565.47 799.83 1035.05 1264.24 1385.65
5.67 -0.58 -120.62 -213.89 -283.61 -337.36 -422.31 -523.05 -672.66
76.25 29.1 -352.06 -516.01 -487.53 -319.82 -182.61 -54.21 -44.87
69.69 169.25 120.78 99.85 170.43 276.11 388.38 487.89 566.99
4755.17 9251.83 8046.42 7193.48 9887.17 14153.06 18587.68 22696.44 25723.04
1 1 1 1 2
1 1 1 1 1
99 99 99 99 99
99 82 68 59 55
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
764.18 872.76 801.05 826.48 870.89 918.73 950.75 968.94 988.11
3284.23 3897.64 3726.67 3861.86 4117.39 4442.32 4700.94 4911.87 5069.38
1066.26 1152.74 1081.34 1059.94 1010.21 976.31 884.33 778.62 646.54
2980.55 3507.51 3028.29 3070.67 3226.87 3515.37 3643.16 3770.27 3752.63
762.85 894.55 773.83 784.72 890.39 1024 1140.82 1236.3 1303.2
13645.61 19115.43 14711.36 14769.25 18808.8 24054.78 28768.09 32762.36 35195.51
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
16 6 3 5 2
9 1 1 1 1
79 86 95 99 99
39 14 12 8 11
5 1 1 1 1
6 1 1 1 1
Figure 38. Hog Farms
Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Net Worth 1999-2002
32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% ILH180 ILH650 -7.83% INH200 INH1200 NCH350 NCH13268 6.20% 3.86% 4.39% 13.15% 27.56%
Average Annual Percentage Change in Receipts 1999-2002 Needed to Maintain 1999 Net Worth
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% ILH180 ILH650 INH200 INH1200 -19.05% -22.12% NCH350 -20.33% NCH13268 -5.66% -8.88% 20.45%
Figure 39. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Hog Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
ILH180 Illinois Hog Farm
300 250 200
($1,000's)
ILH650 Large Illinois Hog Farm
1200 1000 800
($1,000's) 47 1 1 54 2
150 100 50
17 1 13 1 23
600 400 200
15 1 2 1 1 1 2 1
27
1
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
INH200 Indiana Hog Farm
200 150 100
($1,000's)
INH1200 Large Indiana Hog Farm
1200 1000 800
($1,000's)
600 400 200 0 -200 -400
99 99 82 82 71 68 62 59 67 55
50 0 -50 -100 -150 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Figure 40. Net Cash Farm Income and Probabilities of a Cash Flow Deficit and Refinancing: Hog Farms
Mean NCFY 25 & 75 Percentile NCFY 5 & 95 Percentile NCFY Prob. of Cash Flow Deficit Prob. of Refinancing
NCH350 North Carolina Hog Farm
450 400 350 300
($1,000's) ($1,000's)
NCH13268 Large North Carolina Hog Farm
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000
250 200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 1
0 -2000 1996 1997 1998 1999
6 1
1 1
1 1
2 1
19
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
APPENDIX A: CHARACTERISTICS OF REPRESENTATIVE FARMS
1999 CHARACTERISTICS OF PANEL FARMS PRODUCING FEED GRAIN AND OILSEEDS IAG950 A 950-acre Northwestern Iowa (Webster County) moderate size grain farm that plants 475 acres of corn, and 475 acres of soybeans. The farm receives 60 percent of its receipts from corn. A 2,400-acre Northwestern Iowa (Webster County) large grain farm that plants 1,200 acres of corn, and 1,200 acres of soybeans. The farm generates 63 percent of its receipts from corn. A 900-acre South Central Nebraska (York County) grain farm that plants 600 acres of corn, and 300 acres of soybeans. The farm generates 74 percent of its receipts from corn. A 1,300 South Central Nebraska (Hamilton County) grain farm that plants 871 acres of corn and 429 acres of soybeans. The farm generates about 75 percent of its receipts from corn.
IAG2400
NEG900
NEG1300
MOCG1700 A 1,700-acre Central Missouri (Carroll County) moderate size grain farm with 85 acres of wheat, 808 acres of corn, and 808 acres of soybeans. This farm is located in the Missouri river bottom and supplies feed to the livestock producers in the region at a premium to other areas of Missouri. Corn generates 52 percent of the farm's receipts with soybeans included. MOCG3300 A 3,300-acre Central Missouri (Carroll County) large grain farm with 100 acres of wheat, 1,319 acres of corn, and 1,881 acres of soybeans. This farm is located in the Missouri river bottom-and supplies feed to the livestock producers in the region at a premium to other areas of Missouri. The farm generates about 46 percent of its total revenue from corn and 49 percent from soybeans. MONG1400 A 1,400-acre Northern Missouri (Nodaway County) diversified grain farm with 600 acres of corn, 600 acres of soybeans, and 200 acres of hay. The farm also has 150 breeding cows and in 1996 sold its 80 breeding sows. The farm generates about 68 percent of its total revenue from corn and soybeans and 29 percent from cattle.
Appendix Table A1. Characteristics of Panel Farms Producing Feed Grains. IAG950 County Total Cropland Acres Owned Acres Leased Pastureland Acres Owned Acres Leased Assets ($1000) Total Real Estate Machinery Other & Livestock Debt/Asset Ratios Total Intermediate Long Run Number of Livestock Beef Cows 1999 Gross Receipts ($1,000)* Total Cattle Webster 950 240 710 IAG2400 Webster 2,400 380 2,020 NEG900 York 900 180 720 NEG1300 Hamilton 1,300 260 1,040 MOCG1700 Carroll 1,700 850 850 MOCG3300 Carroll 3,300 1,600 1,700 MONG1400 Nodaway 1,400 700 700
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
400 400
1,170 866 234 69
2,056 1,304 497 255
1,218 703 426 89
1,411 792 482 136
2,462 1,659 469 333
4,186 3,035 704 448
2,134 1,609 380 144
0.15 0.14 0.16
0.16 0.15 0.16
0.21 0.27 0.17
0.10 0.02 0.16
0.12 0.06 0.15
0.14 0.11 0.15
0.20 0.36 0.15
0
0
0
0
0
0
200
267.6 0.0 0.00% 161.5 60.30% 0.0 0.00% 99.8 37.30% 0.0 0.00% 3.4 1.30%
590.7 0.0 0.00% 372.5 63.10% 0.0 0.00% 204.6 34.60% 0.0 0.00% 7.6 1.30%
265.1 0.0 0.00% 195.7 73.80% 0.0 0.00% 66.5 25.10% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
369.7 0.0 0.00% 275.7 74.60% 0.0 0.00% 90.8 24.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
350.2 0.0 0.00% 183.5 52.40% 15.6 4.50% 142.0 40.60% 0.0 0.00% 5.0 1.40%
643.9 0.0 0.00% 293.6 45.60% 28.6 4.40% 312.8 48.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
343.8 101.2 29.40% 154.6 45.00% 0.0 0.00% 80.0 23.30% 0.7 0.20% 4.3 1.20%
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
Hay
Other Receipts
1999 Planted Acres** Total Corn
950.0 475.0 50.00% 0.0 0.00% 475.0 50.00% 0.0 0.00%
2,400.0 1,200.0 50.00% 0.0 0.00% 1,200.0 50.00% 0.0 0.00%
900.0 600.0 66.70% 0.0 0.00% 300.0 33.30% 0.0 0.00%
1,300.0 871.0 67.00% 0.0 0.00% 429.0 33.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,700.0 807.5 47.50% 85.0 5.00% 807.5 47.50% 0.0 0.00%
3,300.0 1,319.0 40.00% 100.0 3.00% 1,881.0 57.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,450.0 600.0 41.40% 0.0 0.00% 600.0 41.40% 200.0 13.80%
Wheat
Soybeans
Hay
*Receipts for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Percents indicate the percentage of the total receipts accounted for by the livestock categories and the crops. **Acreages for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Total planted acreage may exceed total cropland available due to double cropping. Percents indicate the percentage of total planted acreage accounted for by the crop.
76
PANEL FARMS PRODUCING FEED GRAIN AND OILSEEDS (CONTINUED) TXNP1600 A 1,600-acre Northern High Plains of Texas (Moore County) moderate size, 100 percent irrigated, grain farm with 528 acres of wheat, 240 acres of sorghum, 800 acres of corn, and 32 acres fallow. The farm generates 83 percent of its total receipts from feed grains. A 6,700-acre Northern High Plains of Texas (Moore County) large, 85 percent irrigated, grain farm with 1,675 acres of irrigated wheat (800 acres of the wheat is in the dryland corners of all pivot irrigated fields), 355 acres of irrigated sorghum, 3,350 acres of irrigated corn, and 670 acres fallow. The farm generates about 83 percent of its receipts from feed grains. A 2,000 acre Texas Blacklands (Hill County) grain farm with 600 acres of corn, 750 acres of sorghum, 250 acres of wheat, 400 acres of cotton and 150 acres of pasture. About 61 percent of the receipts are from feedgrains. The farm has 20 cows and receives only 2 percent of its receipts from cattle. A 2,500 acre Texas Blacklands (Falls County) grain farm with 750 acres of corn, 250 acres of sorghum, 250 acres of wheat, 625 acres of oats and 625 acres of pasture. The feedgrains account for 53 percent of the receipts on the farm. The 125 cows plus stocker steers account for 25 percent of receipts. A 900-acre Western Tennessee (Henry County) grain and soybean farm with 400 acres of corn, 500 acres of soybeans, 200 acres of wheat, and 250 acres of hay. The farm generates about 67 percent of its receipts from corn and soybeans. Fifty head of beef cattle account for 9 percent of receipts. A 2,400-acre Western Tennessee (Henry County) grain and soybean farm with 1,200 acres of corn, 1,200 acres of soybeans, and 600 acres of wheat. The farm generates about 78 percent of its receipts from corn and soybeans. A 1,500-acre South Carolina (Clarendon County) moderate size grain farm with 750 acres of double cropped wheat and soybeans, 600 acres of corn, and 150 acres of full season soybeans. The farm generates about 69 percent of its total receipts from corn and soybeans. This farm enjoys high returns on double cropped acreage but timing will not allow more than 750 acres. A 3,500-acre South Carolina (Clarendon County) large grain farm with 2,020 acres of double crop wheat and soybeans, 350 acres of cotton, and 1,130 acres of corn. This farm enjoys high returns on double cropped acreage but timing is a limiting factor. The farm generates 57 percent of its receipts from corn and soybeans.
TXNP6700
TXBG2000
TXBG2500
TNG900
TNG2400
SCG1500
SCG3500
Appendix Table A2. Characteristics of Panel Farms Producing Feed Grains. TXNP1600 County Total Cropland Acres Owned Acres Leased Pastureland Acres Owned Acres Leased Assets ($1000) Total Real Estate Machinery Other & Livestock Debt/Asset Ratios Total Intermediate Long Run Number of Livestock Beef Cows 1999 Gross Receipts ($1,000)* Total Cattle Moore 1,600 160 1,440 TXNP6700 Moore 6,700 1,100 5,600 TXBG2000 Hill 2,000 200 1,800 TXBG2500 Falls 1,250 312 938 TNG900 Henry 900 207 693 TNG2400 Henry 2,400 482 1,918 SCG1500 Clarendon 1,500 500 1,000 SCG3500 Clarendon 3,500 1,400 2,100
0 0
0 0
15 135
312 700
57 190
0 0
300 0
1,400 0
504 121 307 75
2,926 853 1,512 561
470 188 270 12
1,153 684 164 305
708 422 249 37
1,911 912 673 326
1,110 625 417 67
3,642 2,159 1,012 470
0.14 0.13 0.16
0.13 0.13 0.14
0.20 0.22 0.16
0.11 0.04 0.16
0.21 0.30 0.15
0.16 0.16 0.15
0.22 0.30 0.16
0.18 0.22 0.16
0
0
20
125
50
0
0
0
399.3 0.0 0.00% 286.3 71.70% 43.6 10.90% 69.3 17.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,587.4 0.0 0.00% 1,258.3 79.30% 52.9 3.30% 177.9 11.20% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 16.3 1.00%
357.2 7.3 2.00% 101.3 28.40% 115.1 32.20% 27.6 7.70% 0.0 0.00% 105.8 29.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
401.2 101.9 25.40% 152.0 37.90% 36.2 9.00% 39.3 9.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 23.2 5.80% 48.7 12.10%
213.6 20.1 9.40% 89.4 41.90% 0.0 0.00% 34.5 16.20% 53.0 24.80% 0.0 0.00% 8.5 4.00% 0.0 0.00% 7.0 3.30%
539.9 0.0 0.00% 296.6 54.90% 0.0 0.00% 115.4 21.40% 125.2 23.20% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
419.2 0.0 0.00% 166.4 39.70% 0.0 0.00% 107.6 25.70% 121.8 29.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 20.3 4.90%
1,032.8 0.0 0.00% 315.6 30.60% 0.0 0.00% 230.1 22.30% 273.2 26.50% 165.9 16.10% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 40.9 4.00%
Corn
Sorghum
Wheat
Soybeans
Cotton
Hay
Oats
Other Receipts
1999 Planted Acres** Total Corn
1,600.0 800.0 50.00% 240.0 15.00% 528.0 33.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 32.0 2.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
6,030.0 3,350.0 55.60% 335.0 5.60% 1,675.0 27.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 670.0 11.10% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
2,150.0 600.0 27.90% 750.0 34.90% 250.0 11.60% 0.0 0.00% 400.0 18.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 150.0 7.00%
2,500.0 750.0 30.00% 250.0 10.00% 250.0 10.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 625.0 25.00% 625.0 25.00%
1,350.0 400.0 29.60% 0.0 0.00% 200.0 14.80% 500.0 37.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 250.0 18.50% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
3,000.0 1,200.0 40.00% 0.0 0.00% 600.0 20.00% 1,200.0 40.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
2,250.0 600.0 26.70% 0.0 0.00% 750.0 33.30% 900.0 40.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
5,169.5 1,130.5 21.90% 0.0 0.00% 1,669.5 32.30% 2,019.5 39.10% 350.0 6.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
Sorghum
Wheat
Soybeans
Cotton
Fallow
Hay
Oats
Improved Pasture
*Receipts for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Percents indicate the percentage of the total receipts accounted for by the livestock categories and the crops. **Acreages for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Total planted acreage may exceed total cropland available due to double cropping. Percents indicate the percentage of total planted acreage accounted for by the crop.
78
1999 CHARACTERISTICS OF PANEL FARMS PRODUCING WHEAT WAW1500 A 1,500-acre Southeastern Washington (Whitman County) moderate size grain farm that plants 900 acres of wheat, 300 acres of barley, and 300 acres of dry peas. Disease problems require a rotation that includes a minimum amount of barley and peas to maintain wheat yields. The farm generates 69 percent of its receipts from wheat . A 4,250-acre Southeastern Washington (Whitman County) large size grain farm that is harvesting 2,763 acres of wheat, 200 acres of barley, and 1,288 acres of peas. Disease problems require a rotation that includes a minimum amount of barley and peas in order to maintain wheat yields. Winter and spring wheat account for 72 percent of receipts. A 1,760-acre South Central North Dakota (Barnes County) moderate size grain farm that has 704 acres of wheat, 176 acres of barley, 176 acres of corn, 352 acres of soybeans, and 352 acres of sunflowers. The farm receives about 51 percent of receipts from small grains of wheat and barley. A 4,850-acre South Central North Dakota (Barnes County) large grain farm that plants 2,585 acres of wheat, 470 acres of barley, 705 acres of soybeans, 940 acres of sunflowers, and 150 acres of CRP. Wheat accounts for about 55 percent of the farms total gross receipts with barley contributing another 12 percent. A 1,385-acre South Central Kansas (Sumner County) moderate size grain farm that plants 928 acres of wheat, 138 acres of soybeans, and 319 acres of grain-sorghum. The farm generates about 69 percent of its receipts from wheat. A 3,180-acre South Central Kansas (Sumner County) large grain farm harvesting 2,258 acres of wheat, 652 acres of grain sorghum, 56 acres of corn, 87 acres of soybeans, and 127 acres of hay. The farm also has 67 breeding cows. The farm generates 69 percent of its receipts from wheat. A 2,325-acre North Western Kansas (Thomas County) moderate size grain farm that plants 775 acres of wheat, 155 acres of grain sorghum, 620 acres of corn, and has 775 acres of fallow. The farm generates 41 percent of its receipts from wheat. A 4,300-acre North Western Kansas (Thomas County) large grain farm harvesting 1,948 acres of wheat, 465 acres of sorghum, 549 acres of corn, 262 acres of sunflowers, 75 acres of hay, and 1,001 acres of fallow. The farm also has 100 breeding cows. The farm generates about 47 percent of its receipts from wheat. A 2,700-acre Northeast Colorado (Washington County) moderate size grain farm that plants 1,127 acres of wheat, 608 acres of millet, and 446 acres of corn, and will leave 519 acres fallow. The farm generates 49 percent of its receipts from wheat. A 5,440-acre Northeast Colorado (Washington County) large size grain farm that plants 1,900 acres of wheat, 500 acres of corn, 1,300 acres of millet, 640 acres of CRP, and 1,100 acres in fallow. Wheat produces 58 percent of the farms gross revenue.
WAW4250
NDW1760
NDW4850
KSSW1385
KSSW3180
KSNW2325
KSNW4300
COW2700
COW5440
Appendix Table A3. Characteristics of Panel Farms Producing Wheat. WAW1500 County Total Cropland Acres Owned Acres Leased Pastureland Acres Owned Acres Leased Assets ($1000) Total Real Estate Machinery Other & Livestock Debt/Asset Ratios Total Intermediate Long Run Number of Livestock Beef Cows 1999 Gross Receipts ($1,000)* Total Cattle Whitman 1,500 750 750 WAW4250 Whitman 4,250 2,125 2,125 NDW1760 Barnes 1,760 176 1,584 NDW4850 Barnes 4,850 1,701 3,149 KSSW1385 Sumner 1,385 485 900 KSSW3180 Sumner 3,180 330 2,850 KSNW2325 Thomas 2,325 930 1,395 KSNW4300 Thomas 4,300 1,147 3,153 COW2700 Washington 2,700 837 1,863 COW5440 Washington 5,440 3,020 2,420
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
25 775
500 500
500 500
0 0
0 0
1,612 1,028 522 62
4,424 2,968 1,195 261
478 136 253 89
2,572 957 1,116 499
736 426 222 87
1,435 434 580 420
1,220 730 414 76
1,720 902 534 284
799 456 217 126
2,352 1,539 635 178
0.20 0.28 0.16
0.18 0.26 0.14
0.13 0.12 0.16
0.15 0.15 0.17
0.18 0.23 0.16
0.09 0.05 0.18
0.20 0.27 0.15
0.12 0.07 0.15
0.14 0.13 0.15
0.15 0.16 0.15
0
0
0
0
0
67
0
100
0
0
256.4 0.0 0.00% 176.4 68.80% 0.0 0.00% 40.6 15.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 39.4 15.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
685.6 0.0 0.00% 492.1 71.80% 0.0 0.00% 31.3 4.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 162.2 23.70% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
238.4 0.0 0.00% 95.1 39.90% 0.0 0.00% 27.2 11.40% 30.7 12.90% 65.1 27.30% 0.0 0.00% 18.0 7.50% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
678.8 0.0 0.00% 371.2 54.70% 0.0 0.00% 84.1 12.40% 0.0 0.00% 153.2 22.60% 0.0 0.00% 56.4 8.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 9.3 1.40%
154.3 0.0 0.00% 106.0 68.70% 36.8 23.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 11.3 7.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
330.8 28.8 8.70% 228.9 69.20% 50.5 15.30% 0.0 0.00% 4.9 1.50% 6.7 2.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 10.8 3.30% 0.0 0.00%
247.5 5.1 2.10% 101.3 40.90% 25.7 10.40% 0.0 0.00% 97.5 39.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 18.0 7.30%
515.4 37.6 7.30% 244.1 47.40% 59.4 11.50% 0.0 0.00% 151.2 29.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 20.8 4.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.1 0.00% 1.5 0.30%
268.1 0.0 0.00% 130.7 48.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 66.5 24.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 66.6 24.90% 0.0 0.00% 4.3 1.60%
483.1 0.0 0.00% 281.9 58.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 66.7 13.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 104.7 21.70% 0.0 0.00% 29.8 6.20%
Wheat
Sorghum
Barley
Corn
Soybeans
Dry Peas
Sunflowers
Millet
Hay
Other Receipts
1999 Planted Acres** Total Wheat
1,500.0 900.0 60.00% 0.0 0.00% 300.0 20.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 300.0 20.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
4,250.0 2,762.5 65.00% 0.0 0.00% 200.0 4.70% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 1,287.5 30.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,760.0 704.0 40.00% 0.0 0.00% 176.0 10.00% 176.0 10.00% 352.0 20.00% 0.0 0.00% 352.0 20.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
4,850.0 2,585.0 53.30% 0.0 0.00% 470.0 9.70% 0.0 0.00% 705.0 14.50% 0.0 0.00% 940.0 19.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 150.0 3.10%
1,385.0 928.0 67.00% 319.0 23.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 138.0 10.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
3,180.0 2,258.0 71.00% 652.0 20.50% 0.0 0.00% 56.0 1.80% 87.0 2.70% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 127.0 4.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
2,325.0 775.0 33.30% 155.0 6.70% 0.0 0.00% 620.0 26.70% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 775.0 33.30% 0.0 0.00%
4,300.0 1,948.0 45.30% 465.0 10.80% 0.0 0.00% 549.0 12.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 262.0 6.10% 0.0 0.00% 75.0 1.70% 1,001.0 23.30% 0.0 0.00%
2,700.0 1,127.0 41.70% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 446.0 16.50% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 608.0 22.50% 0.0 0.00% 519.0 19.20% 0.0 0.00%
5,440.0 1,900.0 34.90% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 500.0 9.20% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 1,300.0 23.90% 0.0 0.00% 1,100.0 20.20% 640.0 11.80%
Sorghum
Barley
Corn
Soybeans
Dry Peas
Sunflowers
Millet
Hay
Fallow
CRP
*Receipts for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Percents indicate the percentage of the total receipts accounted for by the livestock categories and the crops. **Acreages for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Total planted acreage may exceed total cropland available due to double cropping. Percents indicate the percentage of total planted acreage accounted for by the crop.
80
1999 CHARACTERISTICS OF PANEL FARMS PRODUCING COTTON CAC2000 A 2,000-acre Central San Joaquin Valley California (Kings County) moderate size cotton farm that plants 600 acres of cotton, 600 acres of wheat, 400 acres of corn, and 600 acres of hay. The farm generates 54 percent of its gross income from cotton. A 6,000-acre Central San Joaquin Valley California (Kings County) large cotton farm harvesting 2,400 acres of cotton, 2,100 acres of vegetables, 600 acres of wheat, 300 acres of corn, and 600 acres of hay. Vegetables on this farm vary from year to year depending on the price of the particular vegetable, however, the returns to this 1,500 acres remain relatively stable over time. Cotton generates about 40 percent of this farm's receipts. A 1,682-acre Texas Southern High Plains (Dawson County) moderate size cotton farm plants 1,185 acres of cotton (866 dryland and 319 irrigated), 196 acres of peanuts, and has 183 acres in CRP. This farm is just now starting to adopt the irrigation practices of its larger counterpart. The farm generates 58 percent of its receipts from cotton. A 3,697-acre Texas Southern High Plains (Dawson County) large cotton farm plants 2,665 acres of cotton (2,095 dryland and 570 irrigated), 285 acres of peanuts, and has 214 acres in CRP. Cotton generates 72 percent of this farms receipts. A 2,500-acre Texas Rolling Plains (Jones County) cotton farm that plants 1,240 acres of cotton, and 825 acres of wheat. About 65 percent of this farms receipts are derived from cotton. A 1,400-acre Texas Blacklands (Williamson County) moderate size cotton and grain farm has 350 acres of cotton, 400 acres of sorghum, 550 acres of corn, and 100 acres of wheat. This farm also has 50 breeding cows which are pastured on rented land that cannot be cropped. Cotton generates 44 percent of the farms receipts. A 1,700-acre Texas Coastal Bend (San Patricio County) cotton farm has 765 acres of cotton and 935 acres of grain sorghum. Severe disease problems force this farm to plant at a minimum 50 percent of the land to grain sorghum. About 74 percent of the receipts are cotton receipts. A 1,675-acre Southwest Tennessee (Fayette County) cotton farm has 838 acres of cotton, 670 acres of soybeans, and 168 acres of corn. The farm generates about 74 percent of its cash receipts from cotton. A 3,800-acre Southwest Tennessee (Haywood County) cotton farm has 2,508 acres of cotton, 760 acres of soybeans, 300 acres of wheat, and 532 acres of corn. The farm generates about 79 percent of its cash receipts from cotton.
CAC6000
TXSP1682
TXSP3697
TXRP2500
TXBC1400
TXCB1700
TNC1675
TNC3800
Appendix Table A4. Characteristics of Panel Farms Producing Cotton. CAC2000 County Total Cropland Acres Owned Acres Leased Pastureland Acres Owned Acres Leased Assets ($1000) Total Real Estate Machinery Other & Livestock Debt/Asset Ratios Total Intermediate Long Run Number of Livestock Beef Cows 1999 Gross Receipts ($1,000)* Total Cattle Kings 2,000 1,000 1,000 CAC6000 Kings 6,000 4,800 1,200 TXSP1682 Dawson 1,682 606 1,076 TXSP3697 Dawson 3,697 1,627 2,070 TXRP2500 Jones 2,500 400 2,100 TXBC1400 Williamson 1,400 150 1,250 TXCB1700 San Patricio 1,700 300 1,400 TNC1675 Fayette 1,675 225 1,450 TNC3800 Haywood 3,800 1,520 2,280
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 500
30 210
0 0
0 0
0 0
5,014 3,638 505 872
14,294 12,880 9 1,406
742 365 377 0
1,828 781 758 289
350 168 176 7
664 329 243 92
556 295 261 0
896 586 310 0
4,584 2,879 1,490 214
0.13 0.06 0.16
0.14 0.00 0.15
0.18 0.22 0.14
0.17 0.18 0.14
0.27 0.37 0.16
0.11 0.07 0.16
0.26 0.37 0.16
0.23 0.37 0.16
0.18 0.21 0.16
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
1,690.3 0.0 0.00% 914.1 54.10% 0.0 0.00% 200.4 11.90% 0.0 0.00% 207.4 12.30% 368.5 21.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
8,027.0 0.0 0.00% 3,232.8 40.30% 0.0 0.00% 296.9 3.70% 0.0 0.00% 92.8 1.20% 430.5 5.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 3,974.0 49.50%
499.2 0.0 0.00% 287.5 57.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 76.9 15.40% 89.5 17.90% 39.6 7.90%
980.8 0.0 0.00% 708.6 72.20% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 192.5 19.60% 75.3 7.70%
203.1 0.0 0.00% 132.3 65.10% 0.0 0.00% 46.0 22.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 24.8 12.20%
294.5 17.1 5.80% 130.6 44.40% 54.9 18.60% 7.1 2.40% 0.0 0.00% 79.8 27.10% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 5.0 1.70%
564.2 0.0 0.00% 417.5 74.00% 132.1 23.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 14.6 2.60%
377.3 0.0 0.00% 280.4 74.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 59.1 15.70% 36.4 9.60% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,110.2 0.0 0.00% 881.0 79.40% 0.0 0.00% 46.9 4.20% 65.3 5.90% 108.2 9.70% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 7.0 0.60%
Cotton
Sorghum
Wheat
Soybeans
Corn
Hay
Quota Peanuts
Additional Peanuts
Other Receipts
1999 Planted Acres** Total Cotton
2,200.0 600.0 27.30% 0.0 0.00% 600.0 27.30% 0.0 0.00% 400.0 18.20% 600.0 27.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
6,000.0 2,400.0 40.00% 0.0 0.00% 600.0 10.00% 0.0 0.00% 300.0 5.00% 600.0 10.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 2,100.0 35.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,564.0 1,185.0 75.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 65.0 4.20% 131.0 8.40% 0.0 0.00% 183.0 11.70%
3,164.0 2,665.0 84.20% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 285.0 9.00% 0.0 0.00% 214.0 6.80%
2,065.0 1,240.0 60.00% 0.0 0.00% 825.0 40.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,400.0 350.0 25.00% 400.0 28.60% 100.0 7.10% 0.0 0.00% 550.0 39.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,700.0 765.0 45.00% 935.0 55.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,675.0 837.5 50.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 670.0 40.00% 167.5 10.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
4,100.0 2,508.0 61.20% 0.0 0.00% 300.0 7.30% 760.0 18.50% 532.0 13.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
Sorghum
Wheat
Soybeans
Corn
Hay
Quota Peanuts
Additional Peanuts
Vegetables
CRP
*Receipts for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Percents indicate the percentage of the total receipts accounted for by the livestock categories and the crops. **Acreages for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Total planted acreage may exceed total cropland available due to double cropping. Percents indicate the percentage of total planted acreage accounted for by the crop.
82
1999 CHARACTERISTICS OF PANEL FARMS PRODUCING RICE CAR424 A 424-acre Sacramento Valley California (Sutter and Yuba Counties) moderate size rice farm that plants 400 acres of rice. The farm generates 94 percent of its gross income from rice. A 1,365-acre Sacramento Valley California (Sutter and Yuba Counties) large rice farm that plants 1,265 acres of rice. The farm generates about 98 percent of its gross income from rice. A 2,118-acre West of Houston, Texas (Wharton County) moderate size rice farm that harvests 600 acres of first crop rice, and 510 acres of ratoon rice. The farm receives 98 percent of its gross receipts from rice. A 3,750-acre West of Houston, Texas (Wharton County) large rice farm that harvests 1,500 acres of first-crop rice, 1,275 acres of ratoon rice, and 200 acres of hay. The farm also has 200 breeding cows. About 95 percent of the farm's gross receipts are from rice. A 1,900-acre Southeastern Missouri (Butler County) moderate size rice farm with 616 acres of rice, 650 acres of soybeans, and 633 acres of corn. Rice accounts for 50 percent of this farms receipts. A 4,000-acre Southeastern Missouri (Butler County) large rice farm with l,710 acres of rice, 800 acre soybeans, 1,250 acres of corn, and 240 acres of cotton. About 55 percent of this farms receipts are generated from rice. A 2,645-acre Arkansas (Arkansas County) moderate size rice farm with 175 acres of medium grain rice, 512 acres of long grain rice, 958 acres of soybeans, 230 acres of corn, and 450 acres of wheat. About 49 percent of the farms receipts come from rice. A 3,400-acre Arkansas (Arkansas County) moderate size rice farm with 325 acres of medium grain rice, 975 acres of long grain rice, 1,700 acres of soybeans, and 500 acres of wheat. About 60 percent of the farms receipts come from rice. A 1,100-acre Louisiana (Jefferson Davis, Acadia, and Vermilion Parishes) moderate size rice farm harvesting 189 acres of medium grain rice, 351 acres of long grain rice, 362 acres of soybeans, and 198 acres of fallow. About 85 percent of this farm's receipts are generated by rice.
CAR1365
TXR2118
TXR3750
MOR1900
MOR4000
ARR2645
ARR3400
LAR1100
Appendix Table A5. Characteristics of Panel Farms Producing Rice. CAR424 County Total Cropland Acres Owned Acres Leased Pastureland Acres Owned Assets ($1000) Total Real Estate Machinery Other & Livestock Debt/Asset Ratios Total Intermediate Long Run Number of Livestock Beef Cows 1999 Gross Receipts ($1,000)* Total Cattle Sutter 424 212 212 CAR1365 Sutter 1,365 515 850 TXR2118 Wharton 2,118 318 1,800 TXR3750 Wharton 3,750 1,688 2,062 MOR1900 Butler 1,900 380 1,520 MOR4000 Butler 4,000 2,000 2,000 ARR2645 Arkansas 2,645 815 1,830 ARR3400 Arkansas 3,400 1,020 2,380 LAR1100 Acadia 1,100 50 1,050
0
0
0
200
0
0
0
0
0
826 495 287 44
2,190 1,476 569 145
747 218 296 233
2,476 1,260 702 515
1,648 911 738 0
6,568 4,313 1,973 282
2,291 1,167 628 496
3,827 1,946 1,120 760
394 83 275 37
0.21 0.27 0.16
0.14 0.08 0.17
0.08 0.05 0.16
0.14 0.12 0.15
0.23 0.33 0.16
0.23 0.37 0.16
0.13 0.10 0.15
0.14 0.13 0.15
0.26 0.29 0.16
0
0
0
200
0
0
0
0
0
299.7 0.0 0.00% 281.4 93.90% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 18.3 6.10%
916.2 0.0 0.00% 896.6 97.90% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 19.6 2.10%
462.1 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 455.1 98.50% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 7.0 1.50%
1,311.1 48.5 3.70% 0.0 0.00% 1,242.7 94.80% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 20.0 1.50%
565.1 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 279.7 49.50% 92.5 16.40% 190.2 33.70% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,636.8 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 898.5 54.90% 141.9 8.70% 445.8 27.20% 0.0 0.00% 147.9 9.00% 0.0 0.00%
702.6 0.0 0.00% 123.8 17.60% 218.9 31.20% 188.7 26.90% 59.0 8.40% 103.1 14.70% 0.0 0.00% 4.8 0.70%
1,018.8 0.0 0.00% 174.4 17.10% 441.2 43.30% 283.7 27.80% 0.0 0.00% 108.5 10.70% 0.0 0.00% 1.2 0.10%
286.0 0.0 0.00% 85.6 29.90% 158.9 55.60% 37.3 13.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 3.0 1.00%
Medium Grain Rice
Long Grain Rice
Soybeans
Corn
Wheat
Cotton
Other Receipts
1999 Planted Acres** Total Medium Grain Rice
400.0 400.0 100.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,265.0 1,265.0 100.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,110.2 0.0 0.00% 1,110.2 100.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
2,975.0 0.0 0.00% 2,775.0 93.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 200.0 6.70% 0.0 0.00%
1,899.0 0.0 0.00% 616.0 32.40% 650.0 34.20% 633.0 33.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
4,000.0 0.0 0.00% 1,710.0 42.80% 800.0 20.00% 1,250.0 31.30% 0.0 0.00% 240.0 6.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
2,325.0 175.0 7.50% 512.0 22.00% 958.0 41.20% 230.0 9.90% 450.0 19.40% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
3,500.0 325.0 9.30% 975.0 27.90% 1,700.0 48.60% 0.0 0.00% 500.0 14.30% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
1,100.0 189.1 17.20% 350.9 31.90% 361.9 32.90% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 198.1 18.00%
Long Grain Rice
Soybeans
Corn
Wheat
Cotton
Hay
Fallow
*Receipts for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Percents indicate the percentage of the total receipts accounted for by the livestock categories and the crops. **Acreages for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Total planted acreage may exceed total cropland available due to double cropping. Percents indicate the percentage of total planted acreage accounted for by the crop.
84
1999 CHARACTERISTICS OF PANEL FARMS PRODUCING MILK CAD1710 A 1,710-cow Central California (Tulare County) large dairy farm that produces 22,800 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 200 acres of hay, and 325 acres of silage for which it employs custom harvesting. Milk receipts generate 94 percent of all receipts. A 2,000-cow Southern New Mexico (Dona Anna and Chaves County) large dairy farm that averages 20,000 pounds per cow. Rather than plant any crops, this farm purchased all commodities necessary for blending its own total mixed ration. Milk sales account for 93 percent of cash receipts. A 185-cow Northern Washington (Whatcom County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 23,900 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 115 acres of silage and generates 95 percent of its receipts from milk. A 900-cow Northern Washington (Whatcom County) large dairy farm that produces 24,400 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 605 acres of silage and generates 95 percent of its receipts from milk. A 750-cow Idaho (Twin Falls County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 22,300 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants no crops. Milk is 89 percent of the farms gross income. A 2,100-cow Idaho (Twin Falls County) large dairy farm that produces 22,800 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 160 acres of hay and 400 acres of silage. Milk is 92 percent of the farms gross income. A 400-cow Central Texas (Erath County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 18,500 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 330 acres of hay. Milk is 90 percent of the farms gross income. A 825-cow Central Texas (Erath County) large dairy farm that produces 21,000 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 430 acres for silage, 20 acres of haylage, and milk accounts for 93 percent of receipts. A 210-cow East Texas (Hopkins County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 16,700 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 195 acres of hay and generates 87 percent of its receipts from milk. A 650-cow East Texas (Lamar County) large dairy farm that produces 18,000 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 140 acres of hay and 360 acres of silage. The farm generates 91 percent of its receipts from milk.
NMD2000
WAD185
WAD900
IDD750
IDD2100
TXCD400
TXCD825
TXED210
TXED650
Appendix Table A6. Characteristics of Panel Farms Producing Milk. CAD1710 County Total Cropland Acres Owned Acres Leased Pastureland Acres Owned Assets ($1000) Total Real Estate Machinery Other & Livestock Debt/Asset Ratios Total Intermediate Long Run 1999 Gross Receipts ($1,000)* Total Milk Tulare 800 800 0 NMD2000 Dona Ana 300 300 0 WAD185 Whatcom 120 60 60 WAD900 Whatcom 605 300 305 IDD750 Twin Falls 120 120 0 IDD2100 Twin Falls 620 620 0 TXCD400 Erath 165 165 0 TXCD825 Erath 460 460 0 TXED210 Hopkins 250 200 50 TXED650 Lamar 500 500 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
300
11,609 6,356 346 4,906
5,739 2,707 331 2,701
1,512 574 108 830
5,431 2,490 633 2,308
3,773 1,392 318 2,062
12,529 4,360 531 7,637
1,557 829 162 567
4,920 1,636 388 2,896
1,075 398 123 554
2,926 1,007 411 1,508
0.13 0.00 0.24
0.14 0.03 0.26
0.10 0.02 0.24
0.12 0.02 0.24
0.06 0.00 0.17
0.06 0.00 0.17
0.37 0.50 0.26
0.09 0.00 0.26
0.12 0.04 0.24
0.12 0.06 0.24
5,527.4 5,200.8 94.10% 326.6 5.90% 0.0 0.00%
5,347.5 4,977.9 93.10% 369.6 6.90% 0.0 0.00%
653.2 619.0 94.80% 34.1 5.20% 0.0 0.00%
3,186.0 3,029.1 95.10% 156.9 4.90% 0.0 0.00%
2,258.4 2,015.6 89.20% 242.8 10.80% 0.0 0.00%
6,287.6 5,772.0 91.80% 515.7 8.20% 0.0 0.00%
991.4 892.8 90.10% 62.4 6.30% 36.2 3.70%
3,335.2 3,106.1 93.10% 229.1 6.90% 0.0 0.00%
517.1 449.4 86.90% 67.7 13.10% 0.0 0.00%
1,632.3 1,478.0 90.50% 154.3 9.50% 0.0 0.00%
Dairy Cattle
Hay
1999 Planted Acres** Total Hay
525.0 200.0 38.10% 325.0 61.90% 0.0 0.00%
0.0 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
115.0 0.0 0.00% 115.0 100.00% 0.0 0.00%
605.0 0.0 0.00% 605.0 100.00% 0.0 0.00%
0.0 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
560.0 160.0 28.60% 400.0 71.40% 0.0 0.00%
330.0 330.0 100.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
450.0 0.0 0.00% 430.0 95.60% 20.0 4.40%
195.0 195.0 100.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
500.0 140.0 28.00% 360.0 72.00% 0.0 0.00%
Silage
Haylage
*Receipts for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Percents indicate the percentage of the total receipts accounted for by the livestock categories and the crops. **Acreages for 1999 are included to indicate the relative importance of each enterprise to the farm. Total planted acreage may exceed total cropland available due to double cropping. Percents indicate the percentage of total planted acreage accounted for by the crop.
86
1999 CHARACTERISTICS OF PANEL FARM PRODUCING MILK (CONTINUED) WID70 A 70-cow Eastern Wisconsin (Winnebago County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 22,800 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 37 acres of hay, 55 acres of corn, 24 acres of silage, and 89 acres of haylage. Milk makes up 91 percent of this farms receipts. A 600-cow Eastern Wisconsin (Winnebago County) large dairy farm that produces 20,700 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 222 acres of hay, 350 acres of silage, and 428 acres of haylage. Milk accounts for 94 percent of the farms receipts. A 200-cow Michigan (Sanilac County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 23,000 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 220 acres of corn, 50 acres of wheat, and 170 acres of silage. Milk accounts for 92 percent of the farms receipts. A 140-cow Michigan (Isabella County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 21,200 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 175 acres of corn, 70 acres of hay, 65 acres of silage, and 110 acres of haylage. Milk accounts for 86 percent of the farms receipts. A 800-cow Western New York (Wyoming County) moderate size dairy farm that produces 22,700 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 575 acres of silage and 625 acres of haylage. About 94 percent of the farms receipts come from milk.
WID600
MIED200
MICD140
NYWD800
NYWD1200 A 1,200-cow Western New York (Wyoming County) large dairy farm that produces 21,600 pounds of milk per cow. The farm plants 825 acres of silage and 700 acres of haylage. Milk accounts for 95 percent of the farms receipts. NYCD110 A 110-cow Central New York (Cayuga County) moderate size dairy farm that p...