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101-16_07 Cornell ECON 1110
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  • Title: 101-16_07
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  • School: Cornell
  • Course: ECON 1110
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101 Economics Lecture The rationing function of price: to distribute scarce goods to those consumers who value them most highly. The allocative function of price: to direct resources away from overcrowded markets and toward markets that are underserved. According to Adam Smith's invisible hand theory, the carrot of economic profit and the stick of economic loss were the only forces necessary to assure not only that existing supplies in any market would be allocated efficiently, but also that resources would be allocated across markets to produce the most efficient possible mix of goods and services. Consider a wheat market in which the current price generates $150,000/yr of economic profit per farm: $/bushel S $/bushel MC ATC 4.00 4.00 Economic profit = $150,000/yr 2.50 Price D 50 millions of bushels/yr 100 1000s of bushels/yr The existence of positive economic profits attracts new firms, shifting supply outward. Price falls, making each firm's economic profit smaller than before. $/bushel S $/bushel S' Economic profit = $68,000/yr 4.00 3.00 2.20 D 50 68 85 100 1000s of bushels/yr Price MC ATC 4.00 3.00 millions of bushels/yr As long as price remains above the minimum value of ATC, profits lure new entrants. Supply continues to shift out until price falls to min ATC. At that point economic profit is zero and there is no further incentive to enter. $/bushel $/bushel MC ATC S* Price 2.00 D 85 millions of bushels/yr 65 1000s of bushels/yr 2.00 2 Present Value and the Time Value of Money Example 16.1. Suppose the annual interest rate on bank deposits is 10 percent. If you deposit $100 on January 1 of this year, how much will it be worth by January 1 of next year? $100 (1.10) = $110. For any given interest rate, the present value of a sum of money that you will receive at a specific time in the future is the amount of money you would have to put in the bank today at that interest rate in order to have exactly the required sum on the future date. Example 16.2 If the annual interest rate in 10 percent, what is the present value of $110 to be received one year from now? As we saw in the previous example, $100 deposited today at 10 percent interest will be worth $110 a year from now. So the present value of $110 a year from now is $100. Example 16.3. If the annual interest rate is 5 percent, what is the present value of $52.50 a year from now? Let PV = the present value of $52.50 to be received in 1 year. PV (1.05) = $52.50, so PV = $52.50/ 1.05 = $50. If you put $50 in the bank today at 5 percent interest, in a year's time you will have $52.50. More generally, when the interest rate (expressed as a proportion) is r, the present value of $M one year from now is given by PV = M/(1+r). Example 16.4. When the annual interest rate is 10 percent, what is the present value of a payment of $121 to be received 2 years from now? PV = 121/(1.1)2 = $100 Put $100 in the bank today at 10 percent interest. After one year: $100(1.1) = $110 After two years: $110 (1.10) = $100 (1.1)2 = $121 Example 16.5. Jones can enter a business whose revenues and costs occur through time as follows. Revenues 0 0 $363 0 Costs $300 0 0 0 now 1 year hence 2 years hence 3 years & more If Jones enters this business and the interest rate is 10 percent per year, what is the present value of his economic profit? Present value of economic profit = present value of revenue - present value of costs = 363/(1.1)2 - 300 = 300 - 300 = 0. Example 16.6. Should Jones enter this business if the interest rate is 12 percent? Enter only if PV of economic profit > 0. At 12 percent, PV of revenue = 363/(1.12)2 = 289.38 PV of economic profit = 289.38 - 300 = -$10.62 < 0, so don't enter. Example 16.7. Should Jones enter if the interest rate is 8 percent? PV of revenue = 363/(1.08)2 = 311.21 PV of economic profit = $311.21 - $300 = $11.21> 0, so Jones should enter. Almost all investment projects require that costs be incurred in the short run in order that benefits accrue in the long run. The higher the interest rate, the lower is the present value of benefits received in the future. So as a general rule, an investment project is less likely to be worthwhile when interest rates are high than when interest rates are low. 3 Stock Prices A stock is an ownership claim to the accounting profits in a company. If you own 100 of a company's 1000 shares outstanding, you own one-tenth of the company's earnings. Example 16.8. A company's accounting profits are $100,000 per year. If the annual interest rate is 10 percent, what is the present value of this firm's accounting profit? PV = $100,000/(1.1) + $100,000/(1.1)2 + $100,000/(1.1)3 + .... = $1,000,000 (If you put $1,000,000 in the bank at 10 percent, you would generate a flow of earnings of $100,000/yr) Example 16.9. If this company has 1000 shares of stock outstanding, how much will each one sell for? $1,000,000/1000 = $1,000/share Example 16.10. Suppose accounting profit from the firm in the preceding example were to double. How would the value of its stock price change? PV of profit = $2,000,000 Price per share = $2,000,000/1000 = $2000/share An Application of the Invisible Hand: The Efficient Markets Hypothesis Economists are strongly united in their belief that the stock market is efficient. By this we mean that the price of a stock embodies all available information that is relevant to its current and future earnings prospects. To illustrate, consider a hypothetical example involving Genentech, a relatively young, highly successful genetic engineering company. Suppose that on the strength of its earnings prospects, the current value of a share of Genentech is $1000. Now suppose that one of Genentech's researchers suddenly stumbles onto a miracle cure for cancer. The discovery is simple and easy to patent. The company is certain to win government approval for its discovery, at which point its revenues will soar dramatically. But because of bureaucratic red tape, the approval process never takes less than three years. You read in Newsweek about Genentech's discovery, and decide to buy stock in the company. Is this a shrewd move on your part? The answer is almost certainly no, but not because the company does not have the rosy future that has been forecast for it. The difficulty, according to the efficient markets hypothesis, is that the value of the new discovery will be almost instantaneously bid into the market price of its stock. By the time you hear about it, the rise in price for which it is responsible will have long since occurred. Critics of the efficient markets hypothesis often object that it refers to a frictionless ideal world. In the real world, they argue, it may take considerable time for new information to disseminate, so and its effect on stock prices may be gradual and protracted. Thus, they conclude, if the news of the Genentech discovery is only a few weeks old, there will still be plenty of room for stock prices to keep growing on the strength of it. This view is almost certainly wrong. The difficulty is a confusion that arises because new information often comes not in the very sure form assumed in the example, but in highly uncertain form. In practice it would be much more common, for example, for the market to learn at first only that a Genentech researcher had a promising lead on a cure for cancer. This more limited information would justify a much smaller boost in the company's stock price, which would then be followed by further increases if the development continued to show promise. But it would be followed by a plunge in stock prices if the development were to fizzle. In either event, however, the full value of the information at hand would be reflected in the stock price of the moment. But because information about new profit opportunities usually emerges gradually, many observers erroneously conclude that the market's response to the new information is also gradual. Unlike the conditions in our hypothetical example, in the real world it is usually hard to quantify exactly what information becomes available at specific times. Moreover, there is almost always latitude for differences in interpretation of any given piece of information. For these reasons, it is extremely difficult to verify the efficient markets hypothesis empirically. Nonetheless, most economists believe that it is correct. If the hypothesis is impossible to verify directly, what accounts for the strength of economists' commitment to it? The answer is that the alternative hypothesis-- namely that stock prices don't embody all the available information- leads to conclusions that we find so difficult to accept. To illustrate, consider our cancer cure example again, and suppose the market did not immediately bid up the price of the stock to reflect the higher future profits implied by the new discovery. Then you or I could simply pick up the phone and instruct our stockbrokers to buy as many shares in Genentech as we could afford. We could then sit back and wait for the market to bid up our shares to their full market value, reaping a substantial gain in the process. The one belief that economists hold more deeply than any other is that the only way to reap such gains is by some combination of talent, hard work, and luck. But if we deny the efficient markets hypothesis, there can be examples like this one in which there is cash just sitting on the table for the taking. We need no talent; we needn't do any hard work; and because the information is certain, we don't even need to be lucky. We just call our brokers and wait for the money to roll in. There is an ample supply of people who would be delighted to earn their livings in this painless way. That it seems generally impossible to do so is all the confirmation most economists need for the efficient markets hypothesis. 4 Example 16.11. The Ace Investment Advisory Group has put together a special stock fund that includes only shares of monopolies that earn profits at least 50 percent higher than the overall industrial average. If you invest in this fund, do you expect to do better than if you had invested in non-monopolies? If investing in monopolies yielded a higher payoff, the prices in their stocks would be bid up until the return was brought into balance with the return on stock in other companies. Example 16.12. Consider a perpetual bond that pays $120/yr to its owner (a perpetual bond entitles the bearer to the same annual payment forever). By how much would the price of this bond rise if the interest rate fell from 10 percent to 5 percent? The price at 10 percent is $120/0.10=$1200. At 5 percent the price will be $120/0.05=$2400, so the rise in price is $1200. More Applications of Invisible Hand Theory Price Supports as a Device for Saving Family Farms Example 16.13. Family farms tend to have higher costs than large corporate farms. As more and more family farms give way to corporate farms, lower costs lead to lower prices, which result in economic losses for family farms. To ease the plight of the family farmer, Congress has passed legislation that pegs prices of farm products higher than market-clearing levels. Will this policy help tenant farmers in the long run? When the price of farm products rises, farms that were earning zero economic profit will now earn positive economic profit. The lure of positive profit causes others to bid for agricultural land, which causes land prices to rise. The long-run effect of agricultural price supports was thus to drive up the rent for farmland, which does nothing to assure the survival of tenant farmers. A much more direct and efficient way to aid family farmers would be to reduce their income taxes; or in the case of more extreme need, to give them outright cash grants. The Adoption of Cost-Saving Innovations Perfectly competitive firms can do nothing to alter the market price, but they can often take steps to reduce their costs. Example 16.14. A trucker gets $5000 for driving a trailer full of cargo from New York to San Francisco, a trip that takes him one week. The rent for his rig is $3000/wk and he spends $1000 on gas. Meals and other expenses come to another $500/wk. His alternative employment is to work as a local deliveryman at a salary of $500/wk, a task he finds equally attractive as trucking. What is this trucker's economic profit? Total revenue = $5000 Total cost = $3000 + $1000 + $500 + $500 = $5000 Economic profit = $5000 - $5000 = 0 Example 16.15 Now suppose the trucker from the previous example installs an airfoil on the roof of the cab of his rig, resulting in a fuel savings of 25 percent. If the airfoil rents for $50/wk, what is the trucker's new economic profit? 1970 Total revenue = $5000/wk, the same as before. So economic profit = $5000 - $4800 = $200. 1985 Total cost = $5000 - $250 + $50 = $4800 Example 16.16. Suppose all truckers but one have installed the airfoil described in the preceding example. What will be the economic profit of the lone holdout? As more and more truckers install the airfoils, costs go down and this places downward pressure on trucking prices. By the time all truckers save one have installed the airfoils, trucking rates will have fallen by the full $200 in net cost savings made possible by the airfoil. Thus the lone trucker without an airfoil will suffer an economic loss of $200/wk. Moral: Early adopters of cost-saving innovations tend to earn positive economic profits. Late adopters tend to earn negative economic profits.

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Description: 1 Theodore Roethke\'s Waltz The poem \"My Papa\'s Waltz\" by Theodore Roethke cleverly describes dancing between a narrator and his or her father. The narrator mentions ambiguous traits about the father, leaving one to wonder about the author\'s true und...
P1 WC
Path: Texas A&M >> ENGL >> 1301 Spring, 2008
Description: Smith 5 Work Cited Paul, Ellen Frankel and Jeffrey Paul, eds. Why Animal Experimentation Matters: The Use of Animals in Medical Research. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 2001. Pizer, H.F. and The Massachusetts General Hospital Organ Transplan...
P2
Path: Texas A&M >> ENGL >> 1301 Spring, 2008
Description: Smith 1 Sam Smith Professor Otto English 1301 6-10-2007 Angle of Vision: Nuclear Power When you read an article in a magazine or a newspaper, do you entirely believe or support what the author of that article is saying? Often times the answer is no,...
P2 WC
Path: Texas A&M >> ENGL >> 1301 Spring, 2008
Description: Smith 6 Work Cited Cheney, Dick. \"National Energy Policy: Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America\'s Future.\" The Allyn & Bacon Guide to Writing. Eds. John D. Ramage, John C. Bean, and June Johnson. New York: Pearson Educati...
P3
Path: Texas A&M >> ENGL >> 1301 Spring, 2008
Description: Smith 1 Sam Smith Professor Otto English 1301 6-17-2007 Exceeding Expectations What person does not enjoy music? Certainly different people enjoy multifarious genres and styles and to varying extents. However, I might say that my own interest in musi...
P3 WC
Path: Texas A&M >> ENGL >> 1301 Spring, 2008
Description: Smith 6 Work Cited Lancaster, Tyler. Personal interview. 16 June. 2007. Scofield Study Bible, The. C.I. Scofield, editor. New York: Oxford University Press, 1945. Teague, Jonathan. Personal interview. 16 June. 2007. Tomlin, Chris. \"Not To Us.\" Not T...
_Apr2_ppt_
Path: Cornell >> PHYS >> 1112 Spring, 2007
Description: Monday Apr 2, 2007 Angular Momentum Read: (Today) 10.5 (Wednesday) 11.1-11.3 Homework 10: Due Monday April 9 Prelim 2: Thursday Chapters 6,7,8,9 Bring 1/2 page formula sheet Bring pencils, pens, ruler, protractor ...
_Apr4_ppt_
Path: Cornell >> PHYS >> 1112 Spring, 2007
Description: Wednesday Apr 4, 2007 Statics I Read: (Today) 11.1-11.3 (Friday) 11.3 Homework 10: Due Monday April 9 Prelim 2: Tomorrow Chapters 6,7,8,9 Bring 1/2 page formula sheet Bring pencils, pens, ruler, protractor ...
_Apr9B_ppt_
Path: Cornell >> PHYS >> 1112 Spring, 2007
Description: Monday Apr 9, 2007 Statics II Read: (Today) 11.3 (Wednesday) 10.4, 10.5 Homework 10: Due Today Homework 11: Due Friday Lab 7: This Week Recitation: Bring Tutorial Book ...
_Apr11_ppt_
Path: Cornell >> PHYS >> 1112 Spring, 2007
Description: Wednesday Apr 11, 2007 Angular Momentum Gyroscopes Read: (Today) 10.6-10.7 (Friday) 12.5 Homework 11: Due Friday Lab 7: This Week Recitation: Bring Tutorial Book Lab 8: Next Week Pick up Prelab ...
solve
Path: Cornell >> PHYS >> 1112 Spring, 2007
Description: How to Solve a Physics Problem [Also works for other subjects] [Also see page 4 of your textbook.] Explicitly go through each of these steps. Write down something on paper after doing each step. Note that we do not write any equations until step 5 or...
Prelim_Solutions__1_S05
Path: Cornell >> PHYS >> 1112 Spring, 2007
Description: P112 Prelim Exam #1 - Solutions 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. (a) C (b) A (2 points each) Spring 2005 F (5 points) (a) (a) (a) (c) [2 points for E, G, or H] (b) A F A (3 points) (c) C (d) B (2 points each) D (2 points) C A (b) (b) (3 points for correct constru...
Prelim_Solutions__1_F05
Path: Cornell >> PHYS >> 1112 Spring, 2007
Description: Physics 112 - Exam #1 Solutions 1. 2. (a) C (b) B Fall 2005 Point #1: F buoy fd Point #2: F buoy Point #3: F buoy fd (1 point for each correctly identified force, direction, and magnitude) w w w 3. 6. A E 4. C (1 point for B or D) G 5...

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