Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Professor Yamin Ahmad Lecture 9: Money Interest Rates Exchange Rates Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 In This Lecture What is money? Control of the supply of money The demand for money A model of real money balances and interest rates A model of real money balances, interest rates and exchange rates Long run effects of changes in money on prices, interest rates and exchange rates Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-2 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 What is Money: Definitions 1. Money is the stock of assets that can be readily used to make transactions. Money is anything that is generally accepted in payment for goods and services Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 2. 9-3 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 What is Money...(cont.) It is important to distinguish between money, wealth and income: Money Flow Stock Stock Wealth: Money + Assets Stock Income: earnings at a point in time Flow 9-4 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Classifications of Money In the United States: M1 = Currency + Traveler's Checks + Demand Deposits + Other Checkable Deposits M2 = M1 + Small denomination time deposits &amp; repurchase agreements + Savings Deposits and money market deposit accounts + Money Market mutual fund shares (noninstitutional) M3 = M2 + Large denomination time deposits and repurchase agreements + Money Market mutual fund shares (institutional) + Repurchase Agreements + Eurodollars [Note: As of March 2006, the Fed has discontinued M3] See: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/ Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-5 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money supply measures, April 2006 symbol assets included C M1 Currency C + demand deposits, travelers' checks, other checkable deposits M1 + small time deposits, savings deposits, money market mutual funds, money market deposit accounts amount ($ billions) $739 $1391 M2 $6799 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-6 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money: Functions Medium of Exchange we use it to buy stuff Store of Value transfers purchasing power from the present to the future Unit of Account the common unit by which everyone measures prices and values Money helps to: Lower transaction costs Increase Liquidity in an economy 9-7 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 So... What Is Money? Money is an asset that is widely used and accepted as a means of payment. Different groups of assets may be classified as money. Currency and checking accounts form a useful definition of money, but bank deposits in the foreign exchange market are excluded from this definition. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-8 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Discussion Question Which of these are money? a. b. c. d. e. Currency Checks Deposits in checking accounts (&quot;demand deposits&quot;) Credit cards Certificates of deposit (&quot;time deposits&quot;) Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-9 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 What Is Money? (cont.) Money is very liquid: it can be easily and quickly used to pay for goods and services. Money, however, pays little or no rate of return. Suppose we can group assets into money (liquid assets) and all other assets (illiquid assets). All other assets are less liquid but pay a higher return. 9-10 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money Supply The money supply is the quantity of money available in the economy. Monetary policy is the control over the money supply. Who controls the quantity of money that circulates in an economy, the money supply? Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-11 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 The central bank Monetary policy is conducted by a country's central bank. In the U.S., the central bank is called the Federal Reserve (&quot;the Fed&quot;). The Federal Reserve Building Washington, DC Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-12 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money Supply Central banks determine the money supply. The Federal Reserve directly regulates the amount of currency in circulation. It indirectly controls the amount of checking deposits issued by private banks. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-13 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money Demand Money demand is the amount of assets that people are willing to hold as money (instead of illiquid assets). We will consider individual money demand and aggregate money demand. What influences willingness to hold money? Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-14 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 What Influences Individual Demand for Money? 1. Expected returns/interest rate on money relative to the expected returns on other assets. 1. Risk: the risk of holding money principally comes from unexpected inflation, thereby unexpectedly reducing the purchasing power of money. but many other assets have this risk too, so this risk is not very important in money demand 1. Liquidity: A need for greater liquidity occurs when either the price of transactions increases or the quantity of goods bought in transactions increases. 9-15 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 What Influences Aggregate Demand for Money? 1. Interest rates: money pays little or no interest, so the interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money instead of other assets, like bonds, which have a higher expected return/interest rate. A higher interest rate means a higher opportunity cost of holding money lower money demand. 1. Prices: the prices of goods and services bought in transactions will influence the willingness to hold money to conduct those transactions. A higher price level means a greater need for liquidity to buy the same amount of goods and services higher money demand. 9-16 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 What Influences Aggregate Demand for Money? (cont.) 1. Income: greater income implies more goods and services can be bought, so that more money is needed to conduct transactions. A higher real national income means more goods and services are being produced and bought in transactions, increasing the need for liquidity higher money demand. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-17 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 A Model of Aggregate Money Demand The aggregate demand for money can be expressed by: Md = P x L(R,Y) where: P is the price level Y is real national income R is a measure of interest rates L(R,Y) is the aggregate real money demand Alternatively: Md/P = L(R,Y) Aggregate real money demand is a function of national income and interest rates. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-18 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 A Model of Aggregate Money Demand (cont.) For a given level of income, real money demand decreases as the interest rate increases. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-19 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 A Model of Aggregate Money Demand (cont.) When income increases, real money demand increases at every interest rate. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-20 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 The Money Market The money market uses the (aggregate) money demand and (aggregate) money supply. The condition for equilibrium in the money market is: Ms = Md Alternatively, we can define equilibrium using the supply of real money and the demand for real money (by dividing both sides by the price level): Ms/P = L(R,Y) This equilibrium condition will yield an equilibrium interest rate. 9-21 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 The Money Market (cont.) When there is an excess supply of money, there is an excess demand for interest bearing assets. People with an excess supply of money are willing to acquire interest bearing assets (by giving up their supply of money) at a lower interest rate. Potential money holders are more willing to hold additional quantities of money as the interest rate (the opportunity cost of holding money) falls. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-22 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 The Money Market (cont.) When there is an excess demand for money, there is an excess supply of interest bearing assets. People who desire money but do not have access to it are willing to sell assets with a higher interest rate in return for the money balances that they desire. Those with money balances are more willing to give them up in return for interest bearing assets as the interest rate on these assets rises and as the opportunity cost of holding money (the interest rate) rises. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-23 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money Market Equilibrium Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-24 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Changes in the Money Supply A decrease in the money supply raises the interest rate for a given price level. An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate for a given price level. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-25 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Changes in National Income An increase in national income increases equilibrium interest rates for a given price level. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-26 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Linking the Money Market to the Foreign Exchange Market Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-27 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Linking the Money Market to the Foreign Exchange Market Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-28 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Changes in the Domestic Money Supply Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-29 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Changes in the Money Supply An increase in a country's money supply causes its currency to depreciate. A decrease in a country's money supply causes its currency to appreciate. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-30 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Changes in the Foreign Money Supply How would a change in the euro money supply affect the US money market and foreign exchange market? An increase in the EU money supply causes a depreciation of the euro (appreciation of the dollar). A decrease in the EU money supply causes an appreciation of the euro (a depreciation of the dollar). Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-31 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Changes in the Foreign Money Supply (cont.) Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-32 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Changes in the Foreign Money Supply (cont.) The increase in the EU money supply reduces interest rates in the EU, reducing the expected return on euro deposits. This reduction in the expected return on euro deposits leads to a depreciation of the euro. The change in the EU money supply does not change the US money market equilibrium. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-33 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Long Run and Short Run The difference between the short run and long run lies in the idea that prices, wages and certain factors of production may be constrained in the short run, but not in the long run Here we assume that in the short run, the price level is fixed at some level. the analysis heretofore has been a short run analysis. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-34 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Long Run and Short Run (cont.) In the long run, prices of factors of production and of output are allowed to adjust to demand and supply in their respective markets. Wages adjust to the demand and supply of labor. Real output and income are determined by the amount of workers and other factors of production -- by the economy's productive capacity--not by the supply of money. The interest rate depends on the supply of saving and the demand for saving in the economy and the inflation rate -- and thus is also independent of the money supply level. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-35 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Long Run and Short Run (cont.) In the long run, the level of the money supply does not influence the amount of real output nor the interest rate. Long run monetary neutrality. But in the long run, prices of output and inputs adjust proportionally to changes in the money supply: Long run equilibrium: Ms/P = L(R,Y) Ms = P x L(R,Y) increases in the money supply are matched by proportional increases in the price level. 9-36 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Long Run and Short Run (cont.) In the long run, there is a direct relationship between the inflation rate and changes in the money supply. Ms = P x L(R,Y) P = Ms/L(R,Y) P/P = Ms/Ms - L/L The inflation rate equals growth rate in money supply minus the growth rate for money demand. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-37 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-38 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money and Prices in the Long Run How does a change in the money supply cause prices of output and inputs to change? Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-39 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money and Prices in the Long Run (cont.) 1. Excess demand: an increase in the money supply implies that people have more funds available to pay for goods and services. To meet strong demand, producers hire more workers, creating a strong demand for labor, or make existing employees work harder. Wages rise to attract more workers or to compensate workers for overtime. Prices of output will eventually rise to compensate for higher costs. Alternatively, for a fixed amount of output and inputs, producers can charge higher prices and still sell all of their output due to the strong demand. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-40 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money and Prices in the Long Run (cont.) 1. Inflationary expectations: If workers expect future prices to rise due to an expected money supply increase, they will want to be compensated. And if producers expect the same, they are more willing to raise wages. Producers will be able to match higher costs if they expect to raise prices. Result: expectations about inflation caused by an expected money supply increase leads to actual inflation. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-41 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money, Prices and the Exchange Rates and Expectations When we consider price changes in the long run, inflationary expectations will have an effect in the foreign exchange market. Suppose that expectations about inflation change as people change their minds, but actual adjustment of prices occurs afterwards. Note: These lecture notes are incomplete without having attended lectures. 9-42 Professor Yamin Ahmad, Advanced <a href="/keyword/international-econ/" >international econ</a> omics ECON 758 Money, Prices and the Exchange Rates and Expectations (cont.) Change in expected return on euro deposits The expected return on euro deposits rises because of inflationary expectations: The dollar is expected to be less valuable when buying goods and services and less valuable when buying euros. The dollar is expected to de...