D. SCOTT SAGAN CURRICULUM VITAE SEPTEMBER 2008
OFFICE ADDRESS: CISAC Encina Hall Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6165 [phone] [e-mail]
CURRENT POSITION: 2008-2009: on Sabbatical Leave Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University Co-Director, Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
EMPLOYMENT HISTORY: Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 1995-2001. Vice-Chairman, Department of Political Science, 1996-1999. Chairman, International Relations Program, Stanford University, 1995-1997. Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 1987-1995. Lecturer, Department of Government, Harvard University, 1986-1987. Consultant, Strategic Nuclear Policy Branch, Nuclear and Chemical Division, Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1985-1986. Research Fellow, The Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1985-1986. Research Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs, Special Assistant to the Director and Staff Officer, Nuclear/Chemical Division, Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1984-1985. Postdoctoral Fellow, The Avoiding Nuclear War Project, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, 1983-1984.
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EDUCATION: Harvard University, Ph.D. (Political Science) 1983. Thesis: "Deterrence and Decision: An Historical Critique of Modern Deterrence Theory." Winner of the American Political Science Association's 1983 Helen Dwight Reid Award for the best doctoral dissertation in international relations, law and politics. Oberlin College, B.A. with High Honors (Government) 1977. BOOKS: Inside Nuclear South Asia, Scott D. Sagan (ed.) (forthcoming 2009, Stanford University Press) The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, co-authored with Kenneth N. Waltz, (2nd edition of 1995 book, revised with a new chapters and sections on India and Pakistan, terrorism, and national missile defense, W.W. Norton, 2002). Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Weapons, co-edited with Peter R. Lavoy and James J. Wirtz, (Cornell University Press, 2000). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate, co-authored with Kenneth N. Waltz, (1st edition, W.W. Norton, 1995). Civil Military Relations and Nuclear Weapons, edited by Scott D. Sagan (Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University, 1994). The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993). Winner of the 1993/1994 Best Book Award from the Science, Technology, and Environmental Studies Section of the American Political Science Association. Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989). Living with Nuclear Weapons, co-authored with Albert Carnesale, Paul Doty, Stanley Hoffmann, Samuel P. Huntington and Joseph S. Nye (Harvard University Press, 1983). JOURNAL ARTICLES AND BOOK CHAPTERS: "Inside Nuclear South Asia" and "The Evolution of Pakistani and Indian Doctrine," in Sagan (ed.) Inside Nuclear South Asia, (Stanford University Press, forthcoming 2009). "A Nuclear Iran: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster?," with Kenneth N. Waltz and Richard K. Betts. Journal of International Affairs (Spring/Summer 2007), pp. 135-152. "How to Keep the Bomb from Iran," Foreign Affairs (September/October 2006), pp. 45-59.
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"The Problem of Redundancy Problem: Why More Nuclear Security Forces May Produce Less Nuclear Security." Risk Analysis (August 2004), pp. 935-946. Winner of Columbia University's Institute of War and Peace Studies 2003 paper competition on Political Violence. "Realism, Ethics, and Weapons of Mass Destruction," in Sohail Hashmi and Steven Lee (eds.) Ethics and Weapons of Mass Destruction (Cambridge University Press, Ethikon Series in Comparative Ethics, 2004). "Learning from Normal Accidents," Organization and Environment (March 2004), pp. 15-19. "The Madman Nuclear Alert: Secrecy, Signaling, and Safety in the October 1969 Crisis," coauthored with Jeremi Suri, International Security (Spring 2003), pp. 150-183. "The Perils of Proliferation in South Asia," Asian Survey, (November/December 2001), pp. 10641086. Reprinted in part in Forum on Physics and Society (April 2004). "Correspondence: Responding to Chemical and Biological Threats," International Security, (Spring 2001), pp. 193-198. "The Commitment Trap: Why the United States Should Not Use Nuclear Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks," International Security, (Spring 2000), pp. 85-115. "The Origins of Military Doctrines and Command and Control Systems," in Lavoy, Sagan, and Wirtz, eds., Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons, (Cornell University Press, 2000), pp. 16-46. "Conclusions: Planning the Unthinkable," (with Peter R. Lavoy and Lewis A. Dunn) in Lavoy, Sagan, and Wirtz, eds., Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons (Cornell University Press, 2000), pp.230-257. "Review Symposium on Diane Vaughan's The Challenger Launch Decision," (with review essays by Karl E. Weick, Scott D. Sagan, and Karlene H. Roberts), Administrative Science Quarterly (June 1997), pp. 401-405. "Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb," International Security (Winter 1996/97), pp. 54-87. [Revised and updated versions of this article also appear as "The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation," Current History (April 1997), pp. 151-156 and as "Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?" in Victor Utgoff, ed., The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order (MIT Press, 1999), p. 17-50.] "Correspondence: Proliferation, Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers," International Security (Fall 1997), pp. 193-201. An exchange of letters among Peter D. Feaver, David J. Karl and Scott D. Sagan. "Responses and Reflections," Security Studies (Summer 1995), pp. 805-810. A response to six review essays of The Spread of Nuclear Weapons, published as a special section on "The Kenneth Waltz-Scott Sagan Debate" in the same issue. "Toward a Political Theory of Organizational Reliability," Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management (December 1994), pp. 228-243.
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"The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons," International Security (Spring 1994), pp. 66-108. [Reprinted in part in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Use of Force (5th edition, Rowman and Littlefield, 1999), pp. 372384.] "Organized for Accidents," (A response to Bradley Thayer's "The Risk of Nuclear Inadvertence: A Review Essay"), Security Studies (Spring 1994), pp. 509-520. "From Deterrence to Coercion to War: The Road to Pearl Harbor," in Alexander L. George and William E. Simons (eds.), The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Westview Press, 2nd edition, 1994), pp. 57-90. "Rules of Engagement," Security Studies (Autumn 1991), pp. 78-108. [Reprinted in Alexander L. George (ed.) Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management (Westview Press, 1991). pp. 443470.] "Reducing the Risks: A New Agenda for Military-to-Military Talks," Arms Control Today (JulyAugust 1991), pp 16-21. [Reprinted in Reducing the Risk of Dangerous Military Activities (Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University, 1991), pp.27-39.] "History, Analogy, and Deterrence Theory: A Review Essay," Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Summer 1991), pp. 79-88. "Change and Continuity in U.S. Nuclear Strategy" in Michael Mandelbaum (ed.), America's Defense (Holmes and Meier, 1989), pp. 279-317. "Origins of the Pacific War," Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Spring 1988), pp. 893-922. [Reprinted in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb (eds.), The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Cambridge University Press, 1989), pp.323-352.] "SIOP-62: The Nuclear War Plan Briefing to President Kennedy," International Security, (Summer 1987), pp. 22-51. "Correspondence: The Origins of Offense and the Consequences of Counterforce," International Security (Winter 1986-87), pp.193-198. An exchange of letters between Jack Snyder and Scott D. Sagan. "1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense and Instability," International Security (Fall 1986), pp. 151-175. [Reprinted in Steven E. Miller, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven Van Evera (eds.,) Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War (Princeton University Press, 1991), pp. 109133 and Richard K. Betts (ed.), Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace (Macmillan, 1994), pp. 330-343 . "Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management" International Security, (Spring 1985), pp.99-139. [Reprinted in Sean Lynn-Jones, Steven E. Miller, and Steven Van Evera (eds.), Nuclear Diplomacy and Crisis Management (MIT Press, 1990), pp. 159-199.] Contributor to Strategic Survey 1982-1983 (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1983).
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"Lessons of the Yom Kippur Alert," Foreign Policy (Fall 1979), pp. 160-177. "Congressional Demands for American Troop Withdrawals from Western Europe," (with Phil Williams), Journal of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies (September 1976). "Senator Mansfield and the NATO Alliance," Royal Air Forces Quarterly (Summer 1976).
CURRENT RESEARCH PROJECTS: The Perils of Predicting Proliferation, co-authored with Alexander Montgomery (To be submitted as part of Special Issue in the Journal on Conflict Resolution). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Revisited, co-authored with Kenneth N. Waltz (3rd edition with new chapters on Iran and North Korea, W.W. Norton, expected 2008-09) The Fragile Peace: Understanding Our Nuclear Past and Nuclear Future (book project expected to be completed 2009) Revision of "Learning from Failure or Failure to Learn: Lessons Past from Nuclear Security Events." Paper presented at the IAEA International Conference on Nuclear Security, March 16, 2005. "Has There Ever Been an Accidental War?" (Manuscript in preparation). BOOK REVIEWS: American Political Science Review, Arms Control Today, Contemporary Sociology, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, The New Republic, Political Science Quarterly, Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, Survey, Survival, and The Washington Post Book World. PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES AND MEMBERSHIPS: Editorial Board member, International Studies Quarterly, 2008Expert Advisor, Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, 2008Member, American Academy of Arts and Sciences (AAAS) Committee on International Security Studies, and Co-Chair (with Steven Miller) of the AAAS Initiative on the Nuclear Future, 2007 National Intelligence Council "Global Expertise Reserve" Consultant, 2006 Member of Steering Committee, American Assembly, 2006 2008. Member, Visiting Committee, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, November 2006.
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Member, Distinguished Advisory Panel for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, Sandia National Laboratory, 2000 Member, Undergraduate Advisory Council, Stanford University, 2000-2008. Member, CAC Subcommittee on Analysis and Policy Formulation, Council on Foreign Relations, 2003-2005. Member, Visiting Committee, Department of Government, Harvard University, 2003. Member, Advisory Panel on Investment Responsibility, Stanford University, 1999-2000. Member, National Board of Directors of the Lawyers Alliance for World Security (LAWS), 19992005. University Fellow, Stanford University, 1996-1998. Member, Asia/Pacific Scholars Program Faculty Committee, Stanford University, 1996-1997. Co-director, NATO Advanced Research Workshop: "Improving Nuclear Weapons Safety and Security in the Post-Cold War Era," Summer 1994. Member, 1995 Selection Committee for the MacArthur Foundation's Research and Writing Grants on Peace and International Cooperation. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Member of the Committee on Science and International Security,1995-1996. Consultant to the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1989-1995. Consultant to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, 1987-1991. Consultant to the RAND Corporation, 1987-1991. Member of Advisory Group to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the Future of U.S.-Soviet Military Relations, 1989-1990. Member of Program Committee for Stanford in Washington, 1992-present. Member of Steering Committee, Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction Project, Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington DC, 1994-1997. Member of Advisory Board, Nuclear Weapons History Project, National Security Archives, Washington DC, 1995-2000. Book Manuscript Reviewer: Cambridge University Press, Princeton University Press, The Brookings Institution, Cornell University Press, University of Michigan Press, University of South Carolina Press, State University of New York Press, University of Georgia Press, University of Chicago Press, Stanford University Press.
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Grant and Fellowship Proposal Reviewer: The National Science Foundation, The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, The Ploughshares Fund, The Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Woodrow Wilson Center. Article Manuscript Reviewer: International Security, International Organization, American Political Science Review, Journal of Peace Research, Political Science Quarterly, Political Behavior, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Security Studies, The Nonproliferation Review, Armed Forces and Society, Journal of Interdisciplinary History, The European Journal of International Relations. Editorial Board Member: Security Studies, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, The Nonproliferation Review. Memberships: American Political Science Association, Council on Foreign Relations, Mayo Smith Society, International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the Pacific Council on International Policy. AWARDS AND HONORS Honorary Doctor of Laws, Ohio Wesleyan University, Awarded May 2008. Elected Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2008. Recipient of the International Studies Association's 2008 Deborah Misty Gerner Innovative Teaching Award Recipient of Stanford University's 1998-99 Dean's Award for Distinguished Teaching. Recipient of Stanford University's 1996 Laurance and Naomi Hoagland Prize for Undergraduate Teaching. TEACHING EXPERIENCE: Co-Director, Interschool Honors Program in International Security, Stanford University, 20002002, 2003-2005, 2007-2008. Department of Political Science, Stanford University (1987-present): PS 014 "Ethics and War," PS 034 Interschool Honors Program in International Security, PS 110B "Strategy, War, and Politics," PS 114S "International Security in a Changing World," PS 143H "Strategic Studies," PS 145J "American Foreign Policy," PS 243A "International Relations Theory," PS 243B "Theoretical Issues in International Security," PS 142S "Managing Hazardous Technologies," PS 138A "Advanced Study in International Security," PS 332 "Decision-Making," PS 301 "Case Studies, Comparative Methodology, and Theory Development," PS 310A, B, and C "International Relations Theory (Parts I, II, and III)." Department of Government, Harvard University (1986-1987): Gov 1790 "U.S. Foreign Policy," Gov 1745 "Strategy, Politics and Arms Control," Gov 90 "The Makers of Modern Strategy."
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PhD DISSERTATION COMMITTEES CHAIRED (OR CO-CHAIRED) 1. John Arquilla - Theory of Interstate War, 1991 2. Nora Bensahel -The Coalition Paradox: The Politics of Military Cooperation, 1999 3. Tanisha Fazal - Born to Lose and Doomed to Survive: State Death and Survival in the International System, 2001 4. Taylor Fravel - The Long March to Peace: Explaining China's Settlement of Territorial Disputes, 2003 5. Ron Hassner- The Path to Indivisibility: The Role of Ideas in the Resolution of Intractable Territorial Disputes, 2004 6. Alexander Montgomery - Social Action, Rogue Reaction: US Post-Cold War Nuclear Counterproliferation Strategies, 2006 7. Todd Sechser - Winning Without a Fight: Power, Reputation, and Compellent Threats in International Crises, 2007 8. Jacob Shapiro The Terrorist's Challenge: Security, Efficiency, Control, 2007 GRANTS RECEIVED AND MANAGED 9/1/06- 10/14/07: "Terrorist Strategies" Naval Postgraduate School Principal Investigator $76, 550
9/15/06 9/14/07 Department of the Navy Principal Investigator "Explaining Variation in Terrorist and Insurgent Strategies and Tactics" $76,550 10/01/06 9/30/08 Carnegie Corporation "Knowledge to Build a Safer World" Principal Investigator $1,000,000
1/15/06 10/14/06 Department of Homeland Security Co-Principal Investigator "State and Local Government Coordination and Preparedness Program Assessment and Evaluation" $156,959 1/01/03 12/31/06 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator "Global Arms Control Summit: Training the Next Generation in Diplomacy" $91,701 10/01/04 09/30/06 Carnegie Corporation "International Security in a World of Emerging Threats" 10/01/04 08/31/06 Nuclear Threat Initiative "Ballistic Missile Defense and Nuclear Security in South Asia" Principal Investigator $1,450,000 Principal Investigator $150,000
05/01/04 03/31/06 The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Principal Investigator "Strengthening Collective Security for the Twenty-First Century: Assisting the Work of the UN High-Level Panel" $100,000 1/1/04 12/30/05 Dept. of Homeland Security Co-principal Investigator "Making a Difference: Facilitating Organizational Learning and Change Through the National Exercise Program" $1,650,000
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9/30/03 9/29/04 US Army War College "South Asia and the Nuclear Future"
Principal Investigator $40,000
10/01/02 9/30/04 Carnegie Corporation Co-principal Investigator "International Security in a Changed World: Opportunities and Challenges" $1,605,200 7/01/02 6/30/03 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator "The Challenge of Cooperation on Counter-Terrorism and Nuclear Security" $30,000 9/01/01 8/31/03 W. Alton Jones Foundation Co-principal Investigator "Nuclear Safety, Security, and Stability in South Asia and The Project on Peace and Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region" $250,000 7/01/01 6/30/02 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator "CISAC Workshop on Preventing Accidental Nuclear War in South Asia" $60,000 10/01/00 9/30/02 Carnegie Corporation "International Security in a Changing World" 9/01/99 8/31/02 W. Alton Jones Foundation "Strategic Stability: China and South Asia" 9/01/00 8/31/01 Ploughshares Fund "Security Issues in the Middle East" 6/01/01 10/31/01 Nuclear Threat Initiative "Nuclear Safety, Security and Stability in South Asia" Co-principal Investigator $1,890,000 Co-Principal Investigator $300,000 Principal Investigator $40,000 Principal Investigator $67,269
6/01/00 1/01/01 Compton Foundation, Inc. Principal Investigator "CISAC Workshop on Nuclear Safety and Security in South Asia" $60,000 10/01/98 9/30/00 Carnegie Corporation "International Security in a Changing World" 7/01/98 6/30/01 Smith Richardson Foundation "The Future Role of Nuclear Weapons" 9/01/97 8/31/00 The Ford Foundation "Implementation of Peace Agreements in Civil Wars" 6/01/95 3/01/97 W. Alton Jones Foundation "Reducing the Demand for Nuclear Weapons" Co-Principal Investigator $1,901,132 Co-Principal Investigator $213,774 Principal Investigator $250,000 Principal Investigator $44,567
3/01/94 12/31/94 NATO Grants: Principal Investigator "Advanced Research Workshop: Nuclear Weapons Safety After the Cold War $46,698 9/01/90 8/31/91 "Accidents at the Brink" Carnegie Corporation in New York Principal Investigator $20,000
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PERSONAL DATA: Born: March 5, 1955. Birthplace: Dearborn, Michigan. Family: Married to Sujitpan Bao Lamsam. 3 children: Samuel, 12; Charlotte, 15; and Benjamin, 18
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