7 CHAPTER Bonds and Their Valuation
Key features of bonds Bond valuation Measuring yield Assessing risk
7-1
What is a bond?
A long-term debt instrument in which a borrower agrees to make payments of principal and interest, on specific dates, to the holders of the bond.
7-2
Bond markets
Primarily traded in the over-the-counter (OTC) market. Most bonds are owned by and traded among large financial institutions. Full information on bond trades in the OTC market is not published, but a representative group of bonds is listed and traded on the bond division of the NYSE.
7-3
Key Features of a Bond
Par value face amount of the bond, which is paid at maturity (assume $1,000). Coupon interest rate stated interest rate (generally fixed) paid by the issuer. Multiply by par value to get dollar payment of interest. Maturity date years until the bond must be repaid. Issue date when the bond was issued. Yield to maturity - rate of return earned on a bond held until maturity (also called the 7-4 promised yield).
Effect of a call provision
Allows issuer to refund the bond issue if rates decline (helps the issuer, but hurts the investor). Borrowers are willing to pay more, and lenders require more, for callable bonds. Most bonds have a deferred call and a declining call premium.
7-5
What is a sinking fund?
Provision to pay off a loan over its life rather than all at maturity. Similar to amortization on a term loan. Reduces risk to investor, shortens average maturity. But not good for investors if rates decline after issuance.
7-6
How are sinking funds executed?
Call x% of the issue at par, for sinking fund purposes.
Likely to be used if rd is below the coupon rate and the bond sells at a premium. Likely to be used if rd is above the coupon rate and the bond sells at a discount.
Buy bonds in the open market.
7-7
The value of financial assets
0 r% Value CF1 CF2 1 2 N
...
CFN
CF CF CF 1 2 N Value= + + ... + (1 + r)1 (1 + r)2 (1 + r)N
7-8
Other types (features) of bonds
Convertible bond may be exchanged for common stock of the firm, at the holders option. Warrant long-term option to buy a stated number of shares of common stock at a specified price. Putable bond allows holder to sell the bond back to the company prior to maturity. Income bond pays interest only when interest is earned by the firm. Indexed bond interest rate paid is based upon the rate of inflation. 7-9
What is the opportunity cost of debt capital?
The discount rate (ri ) is the opportunity cost of capital, and is the rate that could be earned on alternative investments of equal risk. ri = r* + IP + MRP + DRP + LP
7-10
What is the value of a 10-year, 10% annual coupon bond, if rd = 10%?
0 r VB = ? 100 100 1 2 n
...
100 + 1,000
$100 $100 $1,000 VB = + ... + + 1 10 10 (1.10) (1.10) (1.10) VB = $90.91 + ... + $38.55 + $385.54 VB = $1,000
7-11
Using a financial calculator to value a bond
This bond has a $1,000 lump sum (the par value) due at maturity (t = 10), and annual $100 coupon payments beginning at t = 1 and continuing through t = 10, the price of the bond can be found by solving for the PV of these cash flows. INPUTS 10 N 10 I/YR PV
-1000
7-12
100 PMT
1000 FV
OUTPUT
The same company also has 10-year bonds outstanding with the same risk but a 13% annual coupon rate
This bond has an annual coupon payment of $130. Since the risk is the same the bond has the same yield to maturity as the previous bond (10%). In this case the bond sells at a premium because the coupon rate exceeds the yield to maturity. INPUTS 10 N 10 I/YR PV
-1184.34
7-13
130 PMT
1000 FV
OUTPUT
The same company also has 10-year bonds outstanding with the same risk but a 7% annual coupon rate
This bond has an annual coupon payment of $70. Since the risk is the same the bond has the same yield to maturity as the previous bonds (10%). In this case, the bond sells at a discount because the coupon rate is less than the yield to maturity. INPUTS 10 N 10 I/YR PV
-815.66
7-14
70 PMT
1000 FV
OUTPUT
Changes in Bond Value over Time
VB
What would happen to the value of these three bonds is bond if its required rate of return remained at 10%:
13% coupon rate 10% coupon rate.
1,184 1,000 816
10 5
7% coupon rate 0 Years to Maturity
7-15
Bond values over time
At maturity, the value of any bond must equal its par value. If rd remains constant: The value of a premium bond would decrease over time, until it reached $1,000. The value of a discount bond would increase over time, until it reached $1,000. A value of a par bond stays at $1,000. 7-16
What is the YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon, $1,000 par value bond, selling for $887?
Must find the rd that solves this model.
INT INT M VB = + ... + + 1 N (1 + rd ) (1 + rd ) (1 + rd )N 90 90 1,000 $887= + ... + + 1 10 (1 + rd ) (1 + rd ) (1 + rd )10
7-17
Using a financial calculator to solve for the YTM
Solving for I/YR, the YTM of this bond is 10.91%. This bond sells at a discount, because YTM > coupon rate.
10 N I/YR 10.91
7-18
INPUTS OUTPUT
- 887 PV
90 PMT
1000 FV
Find YTM, if the bond price is $1,134.20
Solving for I/YR, the YTM of this bond is 7.08%. This bond sells at a premium, because YTM < coupon rate.
10 N I/YR 7.08
7-19
INPUTS OUTPUT
-1134.2
90 PMT
1000 FV
PV
Definitions
Annual coupon payment Current yi (CY) = eld Current price Change price in Capital gainsyield(CGY)= Beginningprice Expected Expected Expected totalreturn= YTM = CY + CGY
7-20
An example: Current and capital gains yield
Find the current yield and the capital gains yield for a 10-year, 9% annual coupon bond that sells for $887, and has a face value of $1,000. Current yield = $90 / $887 = 0.1015 =
7-21
Calculating capital gains yield
YTM = Current yield + Capital gains yield CGY = YTM CY = 10.91% - 10.15% = 0.76% Could also find the expected price one year from now and divide the change in price by the beginning price, which gives the same answer.
7-22
What is interest rate (or price) risk? Does a 1-year or 10-year bond have more interest rate risk?
Interest rate risk is the concern that rising rd will cause the value a of bond to fall.
rd 5% 10% 15% 1-year $1,048 1,000 956 Change + 4.8% 4.4% 10-year $1,386 1,000 749 Change +38.6% 25.1%
The 10-year bond is more sensitive to interest rate changes, and hence has more interest rate risk.
7-23
Illustrating interest rate risk
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 YTM (% )
7-24
Value ($)
15
20
What is reinvestment rate risk?
Reinvestment rate risk is the concern that rd will fall, and future CFs will have to be reinvested at lower rates, hence reducing income. EXAMPLE: Suppose you just won $500,000 playing the lottery. You intend to invest the money and live off the interest.
7-25
Reinvestment rate risk example
You may invest in either a 10-year bond or a series of ten 1-year bonds. Both 10-year and 1-year bonds currently yield 10%. If you choose the 1-year bond strategy:
After Year 1, you receive $50,000 in income and have $500,000 to reinvest. But, if 1year rates fall to 3%, your annual income would fall to $15,000.
If you choose the 10-year bond strategy:
You can lock in a 10% interest rate, and $50,000 annual income.
7-26
Conclusions about interest rate and reinvestment rate risk
Short-term AND/OR High coupon bonds Low High Long-term AND/OR Low coupon bonds High Low
Interest rate risk Reinvestme nt rate risk
CONCLUSION: Nothing is riskless!
7-27
Semiannual bonds
Multiply years by 2 : number of periods = 2N. Divide nominal rate by 2 : periodic rate (I/YR) = rd / 2. Divide annual coupon by 2 : PMT = ann cpn / 2. rd / 2 2N OK cpn / 2 OK INPUTS
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT
7-28
What is the value of a 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond, if rd = 13%?
1. 2.
3.
Multiply years by 2 : N = 2 * 10 = 20. Divide nominal rate by 2 : I/YR = 13 / 2 = 6.5. Divide annual coupon by 2 : PMT = 100 / 2 = 50.
20 N 6.5 I/YR PV - 834.72
7-29
INPUTS OUTPUT
50 PMT
1000 FV
Would you prefer to buy a 10-year, 10% annual coupon bond or a 10year, 10% semiannual coupon bond, all else equal? The semiannual bonds effective rate is:
I Nom EFF% = 1 + M
M
0.10 1 = 1 + 1 = 10.25% 2
2
10.25% > 10% (the annual bonds effective rate), so you would prefer the semiannual bond.
7-30
If the proper price for this semiannual bond is $1,000, what would be the proper price for the annual coupon bond?
The semiannual coupon bond has an effective rate of 10.25%, and the annual coupon bond should earn the same EAR. At these prices, the annual and semiannual coupon bonds are in equilibrium, as they earn the same effective return.
10 N 10.25 I/YR PV - 984.80
7-31
INPUTS OUTPUT
100 PMT
1000 FV
A 10-year, 10% semiannual coupon bond selling for $1,135.90 can be called in 4 years for $1,050, what is its yield to call (YTC)?
The bonds yield to maturity can be determined to be 8%. Solving for the YTC is identical to solving for YTM, except the time to call is used for N and the call premium is FV.
8 N I/YR
3.568
7-32
INPUTS OUTPUT
- 1135.90
50 PMT
1050 FV
PV
Yield to call
3.568% represents the periodic semiannual yield to call. YTCNOM = rNOM = 3.568% x 2 = 7.137% is the rate that a broker would quote. The effective yield to call can be calculated
YTCEFF = (1.03568)2 1 = 7.26%
7-33
If you bought these callable bonds, would you be more likely to earn the YTM or YTC?
The coupon rate = 10% compared to YTC = 7.137%. The firm could raise money by selling new bonds which pay 7.137%. Could replace bonds paying $100 per year with bonds paying only $71.37 per year. Investors should expect a call, and to earn the YTC of 7.137%, rather than the YTM of 8%.
7-34
When is a call more likely to occur?
In general, if a bond sells at a premium, then (1) coupon > rd, so (2) a call is more likely. So, expect to earn:
YTC on premium bonds. YTM on par & discount bonds.
7-35
Default risk
If an issuer defaults, investors receive less than the promised return. Therefore, the expected return on corporate and municipal bonds is less than the promised return. Influenced by the issuers financial strength and the terms of the bond contract.
7-36
Types of bonds
Mortgage bonds Debentures Subordinated debentures Investment-grade bonds Junk bonds
7-37
Evaluating default risk: Bond ratings
Investment Grade Moody s S&P
Junk Bonds
Aaa Aa A Baa AAA AA A BBB
Ba B Caa C BB B CCC C
Bond ratings are designed to reflect the probability of a bond issue going into default.
7-38
Factors affecting default risk and bond ratings
Financial performance
Debt ratio TIE ratio Current ratio Secured vs. Unsecured debt Senior vs. subordinated debt Guarantee and sinking fund provisions Debt maturity
7-39
Bond contract provisions
Other factors affecting default risk
Earnings stability Regulatory environment Potential antitrust or product liabilities Pension liabilities Potential labor problems Accounting policies
7-40
Bankruptcy
Two main chapters of the Federal Bankruptcy Act:
Chapter 11, Reorganization Chapter 7, Liquidation
Typically, a company wants Chapter 11, while creditors may prefer Chapter 7.
7-41
Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
If company cant meet its obligations
It files under Chapter 11 to stop creditors from foreclosing, taking assets, and closing the business and it has 120 days to file a reorganization plan. Court appoints a trustee to supervise reorganization. Management usually stays in control.
Company must demonstrate in its reorganization plan that it is worth more alive than dead.
If not, judge will order liquidation under
7-42
Priority of claims in liquidation
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Secured creditors from sales of secured assets. Trustees costs Wages, subject to limits Taxes Unfunded pension liabilities Unsecured creditors Preferred stock Common stock
7-43
Reorganization
In a liquidation, unsecured creditors generally get zero. This makes them more willing to participate in reorganization even though their claims are greatly scaled back. Various groups of creditors vote on the reorganization plan. If both the majority of the creditors and the judge approve, company emerges from bankruptcy with lower debts, reduced interest charges, and a 7-44 chance for success.