Slowly?
XavierSalaiMartin WhyhasAfricaGrownSo ColumbiaUniversity
Figure 1: GDP per Capita
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0 1960
1965
1970
1975 Africa
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 3: Divergence: Per Capita GDP Relative to United States
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00 1960
1965
1970
1975 Africa
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: Gini Coefficient
0.66 0.64 0.62 0.6 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52
19 80 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00
Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 6: Theil Index for Sub-Saharan Africa
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3 1970 1972 1976 1982 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1998 2000 1974 1978 1980 1984 1996
Overall Inequality
Across-Country Inequality
Witin Country Inequality
Figure 7: Income Distribution in Nigeria
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 $10
$100 1970 1980 1990
$1,000 2000
$10,000
Figure 8: Absolute Consumption Poverty Rates
Percentage of Population Living with less than 1$ a day 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970 1975 1980 All Africa 1985 Sub-Saharan Africa 1990 World 1995 2000
Figure 10: Investment Rates
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00 1961 - 1965 1965 - 1970 1970 - 1975 1975 - 1980 1980 - 1985 1985 - 1990 1990 - 1995 1995 - 2000 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa OECD-East Asia OECD East Asia
Figure 11: Private to Public Investment Ratio
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Africa North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 1980s 1990s OECD East Asia
DistortionsandtheCostof Investment
InvestmentislowinAfrica InvestmentisExpensive Riskmaybeoverstated
Figure 13: Relative Price of Investment
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa OECD East Asia
So ut h
1.5 2 3 4 5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
Af ric a ib ia
N am
M au rit iu s za ni a
Ta n Se ne g al
Ke C am er oo n M al i Et hi M oz am bi An op i a qu e go l O EC EA ST ny a
Figure 8: Infrastructures
a
D AS SS
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IA A
HumanCapital Education
(1):
SchoolEnrollmentsarelow InvestmentinEducationdoesnotleadto
moreenrollment:incentives EducationofGIRLShasaddedbenefitsin termsofHealthandFertility
Figure 14: Primary School Enrollment
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa OECD East Asia
So
2 3 4 5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
SurveyofBusinessLeaders
Figure 10: Human Capital (Quality of Education)
ut h Bo Afri ts ca w N ana am i G bia am M bi au a rit iu G s ha Ta n nz a an N ia ig e Se ria ne U gal ga nd Ke a n M ya C ala am w M er i ad o o ag n as ca r M Za ali m Et bia h Zi iop m M ba ia oz b am we bi qu e C ha An d go l M a LA EN TI N OE A AM C E D EA R I EA C ST ST A EU AS R IA O PE SS A
HumanCapital(II):Health
LifeexpectancyhasincreasedinAfrican
overthelast40yearsbut:
AIDS Malaria
Wenowfaceapublichealthcrisis,a
pandemicofbiblicalproportions
Figure 15: Health (1): Life Expectancy
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa OECD East Asia
Figure 16: Health (2): Malaria Prevalence
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa OECD East Asia
So
1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5
SurveyofBusinessLeaders
Figure 11: Human Capital (Health)
ut h Bo Afri ts ca w N ana am ib G ia am M bi au a rit iu G s ha Ta n nz a an N ia ig e Se ria ne U gal ga nd Ke a ny M a C ala am w M er i ad o ag on as ca r M Za ali m Et bia h Zi iop m M ba ia oz b am we bi qu e C ha An d go l M a EN LA TI A N OE AM C E D EA EA RIC ST ST A EU AS R IA O PE SS A
Geography,Tropicsand Institutions
MostSubSaharanAfricahasadverse
Geography: Landlocked Tropical
Directimpactonproductivity(soil,specificagricultural productivity,)(SachsandWarner1995) Directimpactonhealthand,thus,productivity(Sachs andWarner1995) Indirectimpactoninstitutions(Acemogluetal.2000) INSTITUTIONSANDNATURALRESOURCES(Nigeria,
SalaIMartinandSubramanian2003)
Figure 17:Geography: Tropical Area
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa OECD East Asia
2
3
4
SurveyofBusinessLeaders
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Figure Property 1: Rights
So ut h A Bo fric ts a w an N a am ib G ia am M bia au ri t iu G s ha Ta na nz an N ia ig e Se ri a ne g U al ga nd Ke a ny M a a C l aw am i M ad ero a g on as ca r M Za al i m Et bi a hi Zi o m pi a M b ab oz w am e bi qu e C ha An d go la M E LA NA TI N OE A M CD EA ER EA ST ICA ST AS EU IA R O PE SS A
2
3
4
5
SurveyofBusinessLeaders. CorruptionandtheNatural ResourceCurse
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Figure 2: Corruption
So ut h A Bo fric ts a w an N a am ib G ia am M bia au ri t iu G s ha Ta na nz an N ia ig e Se ri a ne U gal ga nd Ke a ny M a al aw C a M mer i ad o a g on as ca r M al Za i m Et bi a h Zi iop m ba ia M oz bw am e bi qu e C ha An d go la M E LA NA TI N OE A M CD EA ER EA ST ICA ST AS EU IA R O PE SS A
SurveyofBusinessLeaders
Figure 3: Government Inefficiencies (Red Tape, Bureaucracy, Waste)
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
IA AS ST
a
ny a
M al i
Af ric
oo n
qu e
ia
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ut h
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am
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er
bi
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oz
C
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ib
A
s
a
a
So ut h
3 4 5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Af ric a ib ia
N am
M au rit iu s za ni a
Ta n Se ne g al
Ke C am er oo n M al i a qu e An go l O EC EA ST Et hi M oz am bi op i ny a
a
Figure 5: Overall Institutions (Public and Private)
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Openness(Globalization?)
AfricaisessentiallyCLOSED(1%ofworld
trade) AndwhateverTradedependstoomuchon asinglenaturalresource(oil,diamonds, )
IsGlobalizationtoBlame?
Whatisit?FreeMovementof
Capital Labor Goods Technology Information
HaveanyofthesearrivedinAfrica?
Figure 18: Openness
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa OECD East Asia
ExcessivePublicSpendingand badgovernment
Figure 19: Government Consumption Share of GDP
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa OECD East Asia
So
2.5 3.5 4.5 2 3 4 5
SurveyofBusinessLeaders
Figure 16: Goods Markets and Business Environment
ut h Bo Afri ts ca w N ana am ib G ia am M bi au a ri t iu G s ha Ta n nz a an N ia ig e Se ria ne g U al ga nd Ke a n M ya C ala am w M er i ad o ag on as ca r M Za ali m Et bia h Zi iop m ba ia M oz b am we bi qu e C ha An d go l M a LA EN TI N OE A AM C E D EA EA RIC ST ST A EU AS R IA O PE SS A
SurveyofBusinessLeaders
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