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12 Pages

### bace PPT2

Course: EC 6301, Fall 2009
School: Columbia
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Word Count: 321

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of Determinants Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach by Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Gernot Doppelhoffer and Ron Miller Table 2: Baseline Estimation Posterior Inclusion Probabiliy (1) 0.823 0.796 0.774 0.685 0.563 0.428 0.252 0.209 0.206 0.154 0.149 0.124 0.123 0.119 0.114 0.108 0.105 0.104 0.086 0.082 0.080 0.076 0.066 0.063 0.061 0.058 0.053 0.048 0.046 0.045 0.041 0.039 0.036...

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of Determinants Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach by Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Gernot Doppelhoffer and Ron Miller Table 2: Baseline Estimation Posterior Inclusion Probabiliy (1) 0.823 0.796 0.774 0.685 0.563 0.428 0.252 0.209 0.206 0.154 0.149 0.124 0.123 0.119 0.114 0.108 0.105 0.104 0.086 0.082 0.080 0.076 0.066 0.063 0.061 0.058 0.053 0.048 0.046 0.045 0.041 0.039 0.036 0.033 0.033 0.031 0.030 0.030 Posterior Posterior Mean s.d. Sign Fraction of Conditional Conditional Certainty Regres sions on Inclusion on Inclusion Probability with |tstat|>2 (2) (3) (4) (5) 0.021805 0.026852 -0.000084 -0.008538 -0.014757 0.000009 -0.015702 0.000808 0.054429 -0.014706 -0.012758 0.038823 -0.010720 0.012209 0.012629 0.021667 -0.011281 -0.044171 0.000013 -0.000079 0.007006 0.008858 -0.001847 -0.034874 -0.069693 -0.010741 -0.011343 -0.061540 -0.011872 0.017558 0.044962 -0.000001 -0.033647 0.000136 -0.008415 -0.007525 -0.002278 -0.003296 0.006118 0.007977 0.000025 0.002888 0.004227 0.000003 0.006177 0.000354 0.022426 0.006866 0.005834 0.019255 0.005041 0.006287 0.006257 0.010722 0.005835 0.025383 0.000007 0.000043 0.003960 0.005210 0.001202 0.029379 0.041833 0.006754 0.007520 0.042950 0.009288 0.012575 0.041100 0.000001 0.027365 0.000233 0.008478 0.010113 0.010487 0.002727 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.997 0.996 0.990 0.986 0.988 0.980 0.969 0.978 0.972 0.977 0.973 0.974 0.974 0.975 0.965 0.966 0.962 0.949 0.939 0.935 0.946 0.940 0.926 0.922 0.909 0.915 0.871 0.888 0.893 0.737 0.837 0.767 0.544 0.886 0.99 0.96 0.99 0.30 0.59 0.85 0.84 0.79 0.97 0.90 0.30 0.07 0.24 0.98 0.11 0.90 0.52 0.77 0.01 0.92 0.43 0.67 0.35 0.58 0.10 0.85 0.75 0.00 0.29 0.07 0.24 0.18 0.05 0.37 0.16 0.46 0.19 0.01 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 East As ian Variable Primary Schooling 1960 Investment Price GDP 1960 (log) Fraction of Tropical Area (or people) Pop. Density Coastal 1960s Malaria Prevalence in 1960s Life Expectancy in 1960 Fraction Confucious African Dummy Latin American Dummy Fraction GDP in Mining Spanish Colony Years Open Fraction Muslim Fraction Buddhis t Ethnolinguistic Fractionaliz. Gov. Consumption Share 60s Population Density 1960s Real Exc. Rate Distortions Fraction Speaking Foreign Language (Imports + Exports )/GDP Political Rights Government Share of GDP Higher Education in 1960 Fraction Popul. In Tropics Primary Exports in 1970 Public Investment Share Fraction Protestants Fraction Hindus Fraction Popul. Less than 15 Air Dis tance to Big Cities Gov C Share deflated with prices GDP Absolute Lattitude Fraction Catholic Fertility Rates in 1960s European Dummy Outward Orientation Table 3: Posterior Inclusion Probabilities with Different Prior Model Sizes Rank Prior Inclusion Probability 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 East Asian Primary Schooling 1960 Investment Price GDP 1960 (log) Fraction of Tropical Area Pop. Density Coastal 1960s Malaria Prevalence in 1960s Life Expectancy in 1960 Fraction Confucious African Dummy Latin American Dummy Fraction GDP in Mining Spanish Colony Years Open Fraction Muslim Fraction Buddhist Ethnolinguistic Fractionaliz. Gov. Consumption Share 60s Population Density 1960s Real Exc. Rate Distortions Fraction Speaking Foreign Language (Imports + Exports )/GDP Political Rights Government Share of GDP Higher Education in 1960 Fraction Popul. In Tropics Primary Exports in 1970 Public Investment Share Fraction Protestants Fraction Hindus Fraction Popul. Less than 15 Air Distance to Big Cities Gov C Share deflated with GDP prices Absolute Lattitude Fraction Catholic Fertility Rates in 1960s European Dummy Outward Orientation kbar5 0.075 0.891 0.709 0.635 0.526 0.536 0.350 0.339 0.176 0.140 0.095 0.101 0.072 0.130 0.090 0.078 0.073 0.080 0.090 0.043 0.059 0.052 0.063 0.042 0.044 0.059 0.047 0.047 0.023 0.035 0.028 0.035 0.024 0.021 0.029 0.019 0.020 0.020 0.019 kbar7 0.104 0.823 0.796 0.774 0.685 0.563 0.428 0.252 0.209 0.206 0.154 0.149 0.124 0.123 0.119 0.114 0.108 0.105 0.104 0.086 0.082 0.080 0.076 0.066 0.063 0.061 0.058 0.053 0.048 0.046 0.045 0.041 0.039 0.036 0.033 0.033 0.031 0.030 0.030 kbar9 0.134 0.757 0.826 0.840 0.788 0.548 0.463 0.203 0.262 0.272 0.223 0.205 0.209 0.119 0.124 0.150 0.152 0.131 0.135 0.137 0.117 0.110 0.085 0.082 0.087 0.066 0.061 0.065 0.096 0.055 0.059 0.045 0.054 0.056 0.040 0.042 0.043 0.043 0.043 kbar11 0.164 0.711 0.862 0.891 0.843 0.542 0.473 0.176 0.278 0.333 0.272 0.240 0.275 0.116 0.132 0.178 0.190 0.140 0.147 0.175 0.134 0.149 0.099 0.095 0.112 0.070 0.074 0.072 0.151 0.061 0.077 0.050 0.072 0.075 0.042 0.056 0.063 0.049 0.054 kbar16 0.239 0.585 0.890 0.936 0.920 0.462 0.433 0.145 0.368 0.501 0.406 0.340 0.478 0.124 0.145 0.267 0.320 0.155 0.213 0.257 0.205 0.247 0.131 0.114 0.186 0.079 0.099 0.104 0.321 0.083 0.126 0.067 0.097 0.137 0.059 0.104 0.108 0.094 0.085 kbar22 0.328 0.481 0.924 0.968 0.960 0.399 0.389 0.131 0.440 0.671 0.519 0.413 0.659 0.148 0.155 0.366 0.465 0.160 0.262 0.295 0.263 0.374 0.181 0.130 0.252 0.103 0.132 0.137 0.525 0.120 0.179 0.093 0.115 0.225 0.086 0.163 0.170 0.148 0.134
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