Series
Navigating NCTM through Probability in Grades 9-12
AATM State Conference September 27, 2008
Shannon Guerrero Asst Professor, Math Education Northern Arizona University AATM Newsletter Editor [e-mail]
NCTM Navigation Series
NCTM published series that offers activities, ideas & materials to roadmap implementation of Principles & Standards Chapters organized around major concepts of particular NCTM content strand being targeted
NCTM Navigation Chapters
Each chapter begins with discussion of ensuing content & activities provides big picture of NCTM strand & associated activities Each activity consists of 3 elements Engage, Explore, & Extend Each component contains suggested materials, questions to pose, & teaching tips
Contents of the CD-ROM
Introduction Table of Standards and Expectations, Number and Operations, Pre-K-12 Applets Binomial Distribution Simulator Geometric Distribution Simulator Random Number Generator Adjustable Spinner Blackline Masters and Templates Readings from Publications of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics and Other Sources
Why Study Probability?
What are the big idea of probability for 9-12 grade students?
Why study probability?
Chance is all around us we do not live in
a totally deterministic world.
People must make decisions in the face of
uncertainty.
Probability is indispensable for analyzing
data; data are indispensable for estimating probabilities.
Big Ideas of Probability with High School Students
Probability as long-run relative frequency Determining probability through an analysis of outcomes Independence and conditional probability Moving from sample spaces to probability distributions Expected value as average behavior in the long run
Questions to Ponder How could we begin to answer?
What is the chance of an auto occurring accident at a complicated intersection? What is the chance that a boy will develop hair loss if his father did? What is the chance that a baseball player will get two hits in three consecutive batting attempts? What is the chance that the stock market will go up three days in a row?
Chapter 1 Probability as Long-Run Relative Frequency
Simulation can be useful tool for estimating probabilities The cumulative stabilization of the relative frequency of an outcome in a large number of trials makes it a good estimate of the probability of the outcome.
Chapter Two Sample Spaces
Students should be able to describe sample spaces such as the set of possible outcomes when four coins are tossed. High school students should learn to identify mutually exclusive, joint, and conditional events. All students should understand how to compute the probability of a compound event.
Chapter 3 Independence and Conditional Probabilities
All students should understand the concepts of conditional probability and independent events. Two outcomes are independent if the occurrence of one does no change the pro...