of History the Cold War October 5, 2007 Atomic Weapons and the Early Cold War: 1945-1953 Selective Chronology 1945 April 12 FDR dies; Truman becomes president July 16 Alamogordo, NM test of atomic bomb July 17-August 2 Potsdam Conference August 6 Hiroshima August 9 Nagasaki September London Conference of Foreign Ministers (Byrnes-Molotov atomic exchange) 1946 February 22 "Long Telegram" of George F. Kennan March 5 Churchill "iron curtain" speech March US-Soviet confrontation over Iran July Baruch Plan presented to United Nations 1947 March 12 Truman Doctrine proclaimed June 5 Marshall Plan announced 1948 February Communist coup in Czechoslovakia June Berlin Blockade begins 1949 August USSR tests atomic bomb October People's Republic of China established Why did the US not inform the USSR of bomb project before Potsdam conference? o FDR desire to keep ace up sleeve Use after war as quid pro quo The bomb would be an important post-war tool for use in diplomatic relations FDR saw the bomb as a bargaining chip...not for coercion or intimidation ATOMIC DIPLOMACY?!? yes o Churchill persuaded FDR vs. Bohr o Hyde Park memorandum, September 1944 o If the project remains "secret," the Soviets could not ask America to share it o Congress, public vs. sharing with USSR Suggestions that American political leaders' hand were tied because the American public and Congress would have objected
Cost-calculationsAmericans weren't willing to share the weapon because the research and development were funded by American taxes Liberal Democratic institutions (Atlanta Constitution, etc) opposed keeping the technology a secret Foglesongdon't think public opinion was a major constraint in policy decision Did the US practice "Atomic Diplomacy?" o Alperovitz thesis? Japan was on the way to surrender Americans knew Japan was going to surrender We used A-bomb anyway o Only defensively (Hammond?) US more resistant to concessions US accepted Soviet domination of Eastern Europe There was no ultimatum or US-Soviet "showdown" o Only implicitly Nuclear weapon would be a "master card" for future diplomatic relations o Verbal and threats deployment bluffs September 1945 Byrnes at London Byrnes "intimidates" Molotov at the London Conference of Foreign Ministers Summer 1948 B-29s to Britain During Berlin Blockade, Truman sent B-29s (known to carry nukes) Encouraging USSR not to escalate July 1950 Press: bombers across Pacific November 30, 1950 Truman: "active consideration" re Korea 1953 Eisenhower and Dulles "I don't see why you wouldn't use one like you use a bullet" o Attempt to extract political or diplomatic advantage Impact of US atomic bombs on USSR o Perspective of Zubok and Pleshakov: Inside the Kremlin's Cold War Stalin is not shocked when Truman tells him at Potsdam "We have a weapon of unusual destructive force" Atomic diplomacy made the Soviets less likely to compromise out of fear that the US will continue to issue demands or exercise diplomatic muscle Opposite of what most American experts hoped the atomic weapon would accomplish diplomatically o Soviets sensed US effort to intimidate o Accelerated Soviet A-bomb project o Revived sense of insecurity o Heightened suspicion of US? o Toughened resistance to "blackmail" o Induced caution, especially in Berlin, Korea September 17, 1946 Stalin: "Atomic bombs are meant to frighten those with weak nerves" Why did US & USSR fail to agree on international control of nuclear weapons? o 1946 Acheson-Lilienthal Plan
US would be the body that regulates and shares knowledge of nuclear energy o Baruch Plan modifications (appointed by Truman) No UN veto by USSR on atomic issues Sanctions & possible military action vs. violators o US monopoly deal only on US terms o US belief USSR would not get bomb for a long time o US fear Soviet cheating easy: closed society o Soviet determination to get atomic bombs Why no use of atomic weapons after 1945 o Concern about world opinion o Lack of industrial targets in Korea, China o Fear of provoking attack by red army Impact of Soviet atomic test, 1949 o We now have to worry about atomic threats to our security If US had not built H-bomb, would USSR? o Sakharov: yes...US restraint would have been seen as weakness or stupidity