661: Psych Attitudes and Opinions Political Attitudes and Voting Behavior
Professor: Office: Email: Tel:
Icek Aizen Tobin 625 [e-mail] 545.0509
Textbook Model of Qualified Citizen
Interested in political affairs Engages in discussion of political issues Well-informed about political affairs, knows the issues and alternatives, what the parties stand for, etc. Votes on the basis of principle Exercises rational judgment in coming to a voting decision
Voting Behavior: The Columbia School
(Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944)
Panel of respondents in Erie County, Ohio Social characteristics determine social preference.
SES, religious affiliation, & residence accounted for most of the variance in voting choice.
Political campaigns have little or no effect.
64% of the voters had made their decisions before the nominating conventions. Only 8% started supporting one candidate and ended up voting for the opponent.
Voting Behavior: The Columbia School
(Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954)
Socio-Economic Status
Protestant / Catholic
Social Affiliation
Voting Choice
Rural / Urban Residence
Berelson et al. (1954)
Conclusion: American voter fails qualifications of a citizen in a democratic society. "The ordinary voter, bewildered by the complexity of modern political problems, unable to determine clearly what the consequences are of alternative lines of action, remote from the arena, and incapable of bringing information to bear on principle, votes the way trusted people around him are voting"
Voting Behavior: The Michigan School
(Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960)
Political preferences are determined not by social characteristics but by psychological factors.
Identification with a party explains most of the motivation to vote for a candidate. In any given election, the more variable factors of issues and candidates may take on unusual importance.
Voting Behavior: The Michigan School
(Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960)
Partisan Attitudes
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Parties as Managers of Government Parties in Relation to Foreign Issues Parties in Relation to Domestic Issues Parties in Relation to Group Issues
Party Identification
Voting Choice
Voting Behavior: The Michigan School
(Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960)
Results for 1956 presidential election:
Party ID voting choice: r = .64 Six partisan attitudes voting choice: R = .71
Voting Behavior: The Michigan School
(Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960)
Conclusions:
Partisanship is the most important determinant of voting choice. Issues have little influence. "The widespread lack of familiarity with predominant issues of public policy ... attests to the frailty of the political translation process." "Independent" voters: "Far from being attentive, interested, and informed tend as a group to be less involved in politics."
Beliefs About Goldwater and Johnson One Week Prior 1964 to Presidential Election
(Fishbein & Coombs, 1974)
Accessible attribute Belief strength (b) Attribute Goldwater Johnson evaluation (e) bxe Goldwater Johnson
Republican Democrat Consistent in his views Conservative Liberal Physically healthy Mentally healthy Political opportunist Supports Vietnam policy Favors anti-poverty bill Criticize Supreme Court Supports medicare . . Nuclear test ban treaty
2.24 2.67 0.50 1.23 1.86 2.47 1.75 0.42 2.38 2.00 1.46 1.82
2.72 2.74 1.11 1.19 0.82 1.62 2.37 1.07 2.08 2.69 1.68 2.33
0.70 0.37 2.22 0.34 0.13 2.64 2.85 0.97 0.81 0.60 0.98 0.29
1.89 0.96 1.09 0.48 0.48 6.63 5.16 0.57 2.09 1.40 1.65 0.66
1.94 1.02 2.54 0.37 0.21 4.36 6.96 0.35 1.50 1.84 1.81 0.86
0.77
2.35
1.73 Total
1.19 3.62
4.55 43.57
A % 3 biei
Goldwater: r = .87
Johnson: r = .69
Participation in 1988 Presidential Election
(Ajzen & Watters, 1989)
Voting Choice (Bush / Dukakis) in 1988 Presidential Election (Ajzen & Watters, 1989)
Voting Choice (Yes / No) in 1976 Oregon Nuclear Safeguards Referendum
(Fishbein, Ajzen, & Hinkle, 1980)
Means of Political Persuasion
Paid political programs TV ads by candidate or party Political rallies & speeches T.V. news coverage of comments by candidate ("sound bites") Coverage of campaign by newspapers
Minimal Effects of Political Persuasion
Limited Exposure only small proportion of population watch political programs or evening news on T.V., or read a serious newspaper. Selective Exposure people tend to expose themselves mainly to messages supportive of favored candidate: attend rallies, listen to speeches, etc. Biased Perception confirmation bias tends to distort the implications of information to which people are exposed. Biased Memory people tend to remember information consistent w...