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LM-WLS EDA

Course: B 571, Fall 2009
School: Washington
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Linear ' $ General Model for Correlated Data Objectives: Weighted least squares methods Moment estimation Sandwich variance Linear mixed models. Models for covariance Maximum likelihood and REML Empirical Bayes estimation & 186 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model for Correlated Data Example: Longitudinal FEV in cystic fibrosis patients. Example: Longitudinal CD4 count in HIV...

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Linear ' $ General Model for Correlated Data Objectives: Weighted least squares methods Moment estimation Sandwich variance Linear mixed models. Models for covariance Maximum likelihood and REML Empirical Bayes estimation & 186 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model for Correlated Data Example: Longitudinal FEV in cystic fibrosis patients. Example: Longitudinal CD4 count in HIV patients. Example: Depression score in a community randomized trial. Example: Lung function, asthma, and air pollution. & 187 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model for Correlated Data Consider a sample of N randomly Yi1 Y i2 Yi = ... Yini selected units: i = 1, 2, . . . , N where the Y i are independent vectors and ni may or may not be the same for all units i. & 188 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model for Correlated Data Associated with the jth measurement on the ith unit is a 1 p vector of covariates X ij (1 p) = (Xij1 , Xij2 , . . . , Xijp ) X i2 = ... X ini X i1 Xi (ni p) In the design matrix X i the rows correspond to different times of measurement, and the columns are different variables. & 189 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Covariates may be: 1. Cluster specific, time invariant, or between-subject, so that Xi1k = Xi2k = . . . = Xini k for some 1 k p. Examples include sex and race in a longitudinal study, and fixed experimental conditions in a longitudinal clinical trial. 2. Subject specific, time varying, or within-subject, i.e., covariate k varies with j so that Xijk = Xij k . Examples include time since baseline, experimental condition in crossover or repeated measures designs, smoking status or height in a longitudinal study, or individual characteristics in a clustered sample survey. In some cases (pure repeated measures designs, or longitudinal studies with fixed time points), Xijk = Xi jk for all j. & 190 $ % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' 3. Fixed by design, e.g., treatment group indicator, time since baseline, or individual characteristics in a sample survey. 4. Stochastic, e.g., height, current smoking status, or pollution exposure in a longitudinal survey. $ & 191 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model The model assumes: 1. If X i is stochastic, (Y 1 , X 1 ), . . . , (Y N , X N ) are independently distributed. If X i is fixed by design, then Y i are independent. 2. Given X i E(Y i | X i ) (ni 1) cov(Y i | X i ) = X i (ni p) (p 1) = i (ni ni ) & 192 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model (1) simply states that the sample consists of independently selected units. (2) says that given X i1 , X i2 , . . . , X ini , the mean of Yij is linear and depends on X ij : E(Yij | X i ) = 0 + 1 Xij1 + 2 Xij2 + . . . + p Xijp & 193 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Note: The model may not hold with certain stochastic time varying covariates. The model implies E(Yij | X i1 , X i2 , . . . , X ini ) = E(Yij | X ij ) but if current outcomes predict future values of the covariates then the mean of the outcome at a given occasion may depend on future covariates. For example, if Yij is a symptom measure, and Xij is an indicator of drug treatment then past symptoms may influence current treatment (usually a good idea!). Formally, if f (Xi,j+1 | Yij , Xi,j ) = then f (Yij | Xi,j , Xi,j+1 ) = f (Xi,j+1 | Xij ) f (Yij | Xi,j ) $ So that the conditional expectation E(Yij | X i ) may not be correct. & 194 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Note: The covariance i allows for dependencies among measurements on the same unit. Covariance may vary with covariates, e.g., across treatment group, or the covariance may be a function of time. Alternatively, i may depend on i only through ni . $ & 195 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Covariance Matrix We will consider two approaches where i is unstructured (only for "balanced" data), and where i has a specified structure. Define: A Balanced and complete design means that all subjects are measured at the same n occasions. Balanced only means that subjects should be measured at the same occasions, but some subjects are not observed at all occasions (ni < n). & 196 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ GLMCD using stacked notation The GLMCD can be written as: E(Y | X) = X ( i ni 1) ( i ni p) (p 1) 1 0 2 ... ... .. . ... 0 cov(Y | X i ) 0 = 0 i 0 0 n If Balanced and complete then ni = n N . & 197 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Examples One sample repeated measures ANOVA N subjects are measured repeatedly under n different experimental conditions. The goal is to quantify differences in experimental conditions. 1 0 ... 0 1 0 1 ... 0 2 E(Y i | X i ) = .. ... . n 0 0 ... 1 Here X i = I n , = , and p = n. & 198 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Example: Repeated Measures ANOVA It is often assumed that the covariance of Y i has a compound symmetric form which arises from the model: Yij = j + i + ij where the i 's and the ij 's are independent of each other, with var(i ) = 2 and var( ij ) = 2 . & 199 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Example: Repeated Measures ANOVA We can use vector notation to represent the model as: Yi = + i 1 + i cov(Y i | X i ) = 2 11T + 2 I n + 2 2 2 2 = 2 2 ... ... .. . ... 2 2 + 2 2 2 + 2 & 200 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Examples One way multivariate ANOVA (MANOVA) We assume G treatment groups, and n measurements are obtained in each of Ng subjects in treatment group g. Goal is to test if the mean vector is the same for all G groups, where we assume the mean model: E(Y ig | X i ) (n 1) = g g = 1, 2, . . . , G (n 1) & 201 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Example: MANOVA 1 E(Y ig | X i ) = 2 (0, . . . , 0, I n , 0 . . . , 0) ... G The usual MANOVA assumes i = is unstructured: 11 12 . . . 1n 21 22 . . . 2n cov(Y ig ) = .. . n1 n2 . . . nn & 202 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Examples One group polynomial growth curve model N subjects are observed at the same times t1 , t2 , . . . , tn ; for example a group of children from the same cohort is observed yearly at ages 6, 7, 8, ..., 12. A linear model of the average response can be expressed as a polynomial in tj E(Yij | X i ) = 0 + 1 tj + 2 t2 j E(Y i | X i ) 1 = 1 1 t1 t2 ... tn t2 n t2 1 t2 2 0 1 2 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 & 203 ' One model for i arises from assuming that each subject has his or her own growth curve with parameters i : E(Y i | i , X i ) and E( i | X i ) cov( i | X i ) then E(Y i | X i ) = X cov(Y i | X i ) i = cov[E(Y i | i )] + E[cov(Y i | i )] = XDX T + 2 I n = = D = X i $ cov(Y i | i , X i ) = 2 I n & 204 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Examples Family studies: Hypertension Here i indexes family. For N families the outcome is blood pressure and the covariates include age, gender, weight, height, physical activity, diet, smoking, etc. We include all known risk factors in the mean model, and then study the residual correlation. i may be structured for genetic models as follows: M F C1 C2 C3 MF CP CP CP 2 A 2 A CP CP CP 2 C CC CC 2 C 2 C CC & 205 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Longitudinal Studies In many cases the primary focus of a study is the change in the mean response over time. This can be modelled by X i and then i represents parameters of secondary interest (or quite possible nuisance parameters). If ni is large and/or the design is inherently unbalanced then it may be desirable to impose some strucure on i . Method 1: Random effects models Method 2: Serial correlation models & 206 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Banded: When measurements are equally spaced is that the correlation only depends on the distance 1 1 2 ... 1 1 1 ... 2 1 1 ... i = 2 .. . (n-1) This implies var(Yij ) = corr(Yi,j , Yi,j+k ) = 2 k j, k (n-2) (n-3) ... one assumption $ (n-1) (n-2) (n-3) 1 & 207 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Autoregressive: For data that arise over time it is often reasonable to assume that correlation between measurements that are close in time is greater than the correlation of measurements that are widely separated in time. One model is (here for unit spaced observations): 2 1 1 $ 1 2 1 ... ... ... .. . ... (n-1) (n-2) 1 1 i = 2 1 (n-3) (n-1) (n-2) (n-3) 1 One construction is given by var(Yi0 ) = Yi,j+1 | Yij var( & 208 ij ) 2 Yij + ij = = 2 (1 - 2 ) independent % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 rho = 0.4 ID = 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 2 1 2 3 ID = 3 1 2 3 ID = 4 y y y -1 -1 -1 y 20 -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 -3 -1 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 6 1 2 3 ID = 7 1 2 3 ID = 8 y y y y -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 -1 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 9 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 10 1 2 3 ID = 11 1 2 3 ID = 12 y y y -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 -1 y 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 13 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 14 1 2 3 ID = 15 1 2 3 ID = 16 5 10 x 15 5 y y y -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 20 5 10 x 15 20 10 x 15 20 -3 -1 y 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 17 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 18 1 2 3 ID = 19 1 2 3 ID = 20 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 -1 y y y y 5 10 x 15 20 208-1 Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 rho = 0.9 ID = 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 2 1 2 3 ID = 3 1 2 3 ID = 4 y y y -1 -1 -1 -1 y -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 6 1 2 3 ID = 7 1 2 3 ID = 8 y y y y -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 9 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 10 1 2 3 ID = 11 1 2 3 ID = 12 y y y -1 -1 -1 -1 y -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 13 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 14 1 2 3 ID = 15 1 2 3 ID = 16 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 -1 y y y y 5 10 x 15 20 ID = 17 1 2 3 1 2 3 ID = 18 1 2 3 ID = 19 1 2 3 ID = 20 y y y y -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 5 10 x 15 20 -3 5 10 x 15 20 208-2 Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Cross-sectional versus Longitudinal Effects In our simple growth curve model we assumed that all subjects were measured at the same times, tj , and were from the same cohort (i.e. same age at baseline). This is rarely the case in observational studies. Individuals enter at different ages, and measurements may be taken at different times. This design provides the opportunity to obtain information about differences between cohorts, as well as differences due to aging. & 209 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Cross-sectional versus Longitudinal Effects Ware et al. (1990) discuss a study of pulmonary function where PF was measured every three years for baseline and two follow-up visits on a sample of never-smoking adults. One PF measure is FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 second). They found: & 210 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Cross-sectional versus Longitudinal Effects Possible reasons: Cohort Effects younger cohorts are exposed to higher levels of pollution. Attrition we may only see older subjects that are healthy. & 211 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Cross-sectional versus Longitudinal Effects We can partition age, Xij , into two components: Cross-sectional comparisons: E(Yi1 | X i ) = 0 + C Xi1 Longitudinal comparisons: E(Yij - Yi1 | X i ) = L (Xij - Xi1 ) Putting these two models together we have: E(Yij | X i ) = 0 + C Xi1 + L (Xij - Xi1 ) & 212 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Missing Data Issues With longitudinal data we must consider the reasons for missing data since the missing data mechanism (MDM) can impact the validity of estimates and tests. Examples: 1. Repeated measures experiment HIV patients are given an anti-viral therapy and viral load is measured monthly for 6 months. Some subjects do not comply or drop-out. 2. Validation study Food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) are obtained on all subjects; a validation (more costly but accurate instrument) is obtained for a subset only. We may randomly sample subjects for validation or select them based on the FFQ data. & 213 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' 3. Longitudinal study Children are measured for FEV through the schools. Children may move in and out of study schools. 4. Quality of life study Many clinical trials now routinely collect self-reported information on quality of life. Patients may be to ill to give an evaluation. $ & 214 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Missing Data Issues To formulate different missing data mechanisms we introduce additional notation: Rij = 1 Rij = 0 if subject i is observed at time j if subject i is not observed at time j MCAR Missing completely at random if f (Ri | Y i , X i , ) = f (Ri | X i , ) This implies that E(Yij | Rij = 1, X i ) = E(Yij | X i ). & 215 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Missing Data Issues MAR Missing at random if f (Ri | Y O , Y M , X i , ) = f (Ri | Y O , X i , ) i i i Here the probability of missing data only depends on the observed values and not the missing values. Trouble starts here since this implies E(Yij | Rij = 1, X i ) = E(Yij | X i ) (possibly). NI Non-ignorable if f (Ri | Y O , Y M , X i , ) depends on Y M i i i & 216 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Summary GLMCD is flexible. Covariate models / issues. Covariance models. Missing data issues. Estimation semiparametric. Estimation parametric (Maximum likelihood). & 217 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model for Correlated Data Estimating with known Weighted least squares: In univariate regression, WLS yields estimates of that minimize the objective function N Q() = i=1 wi (Yi - X i )2 Analogously, the multivariate version of WLS finds the value of the parameter (W ) that minimizes N QW () = i=1 (Y i - X i )T W i (Y i - X i ) % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 & 218 ' where W i is an (ni ni ) positive definite symmetric matrix. It's straight forward to see that U () = QW () = -2 X T W i (Y i - X i ) i i=1 N $ & 219 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ GLMCD: WLS The solution to the minimization solves U () = 0 and yields N -1 N (W ) = i=1 X T W iX i i i=1 X T W iY i i Example 1: When W -1 = 2 I ni then i N ni QI () = i=1 j=1 1 (Yij - X ij )2 2 and (I) is the OLS estimator assuming observations are independent both within and between clusters. & 220 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ GLMCD: WLS Example 2: If X i = X and W i = W for all i (e.g. complete and balanced polynomial growth curve data) then, (W ) = X W X T -1 XT W 1 N Yi i This implies that is the regression of the averages. (Q: Is it also the average of the regressions?). & 221 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Properties of (W ) Given X 1 , X 2 , . . . X N and W 1 , W 2 , . . . W N N -1 N E (W ) = i=1 X T W iX i i i=1 X T W i E[Y i ] i = N var (W ) = A-1 i=1 N X T W i i W i X i i -1 A-1 where A-1 = i=1 X T W iX i i & 222 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Thus, W i = I ni var (I) W i = -1 i var (-1 ) -1 $ -1 = i XT Xi i i X T i X i i i XT Xi i -1 = i X T -1 X i i i & 223 % Heagerty, 571 ' Bio/Stat Lemma: var (-1 ) var (W ) $ Notice that W i = I ni gives OLS where all observations are treated as independent (weighted equally). It follows that E( OLS ) = , but OLS may not be very efficient. For maximum efficiency we must estimate i . Q: How do we compare "efficiencies"? Answer: We compare the ratio efficiency = & 224 var (-1 ) var (W ) % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Estimating In general i is unknown. With balanced and complete data we can construct a simple estimator of and use this to obtain ( Lemma: Under regularity conditions on the covariate space X i , if W i is a consistent estimator of W i then (W ) and (W ) have the same asymptotic distribution. N (W ) - N ( 0, C W ) N (W ) - N ( 0, C W ) -1 ). & 225 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' where CW AN = = i N $ lim N A-1 N i X T W i i W i X i i A-1 N X T W iX i i & 226 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Estimating In the case where cov(Y i ) = for all i, we can construct a consistent estimator of the optimal weight matrix W i = -1 : 1 = N N Y i - X i (In ) i=1 Y i - X i (In ) T . In fact any consistent estimator of will suffice. Two-step estimator: Step 1: Obtain (In ) and . Step 2: Obtain ( & 227 -1 ). % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Estimating As we shall show, if these two steps are iterated, with balanced and complete data where i = , then ( assuming multivariate normality. -1 ) and are also the MLE's We can estimate the asymptotic variance of ( N -1 ) using C -1 = N T -1 Xi Xi i=1 & 228 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Modelling In n is large (ie. n = dim(Y i )) then we estimate a large number of parameters in . In that case we may require large sample sizes, N , before the distribution of ( -1 ) and (-1 ) approximately agree. Q: Can't we adopt some simple structure for ? Answer: Yes! With small to moderate samples we may use our substantive knowledge about Y i and exploratory data analysis to guide selection of a covariance model. This permits to be modeled in terms of , a smaller number of parameters. & 229 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Modelling For example, we may use the compound symmetric covariance model: var(Yij ) = cov(Yij , Yik ) = 1 2 and we may use simple moment estimators to obtain estimates 1 = 1 N 1 N N i=1 N i=1 1 n n Yij - X ij j=1 2 2 = 1 n(n - 1) Yij - X ij j=k Yik - X ik Q: What if it's not really compound symmetric? & 230 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Answer: 1 $ 1 2 1 = n 2 j j 2 = 1 n(n - 1) jk j=k These are simple moment estimators and therefore a (general) WLLN implies that these will converge to their limit mean. & 231 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Modelling Again, we obtain asymptotic normality for the WLS estimator that uses W i = ()-1 . Again, there is no difference (asymptotically) between use of W i and W i = ( )-1 . Again, in general the asymptotic covariance of (W ) is given in "sandwich" form: AN BN & 232 = = % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Another Empirical Sandwich! We can use the independent replication across subjects to estimate the matrix B N . N BN BN = i=1 T -1 -1 X i i var(Y i )i X i = Note: The key property of this estmator is consistency requires large number of subjects (N ). & 233 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Testing Hypotheses Finally, consider testing hypotheses of the form: H0 : QT = 0 (q p) (p 1) (q 1) Under the null hypothesis we have (asymptotically): N QT (W ) N ( 0, QT C W Q ) So that we can use N Q (W ) Q C W Q as a general Wald statistic. & 234 T T -1 (W )T Q 2 (q) % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ General Linear Model Comments: 1. The theory sketched here can be considered semi-parametric in the sense that estimation and inference for a parameter can be achieved based solely on specification of the mean. 2. DHLZ (2002) call W -1 the "working covariance model" since i inference using the sandwich variance estimator doesn't require W i = -1 . The matrix W i is used to improve efficiency. i 3. It is possible to allow i to depend on i we'll see examples. 4. The estimates of and the variance of outlined above are special cases of GEE. 5. DHLZ take a slightly different approach to specifying () by assuming var(Yij | X i ) = 2 and then cov(Yi | X i ) = 2 R() & 235 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Efficiency and WLS Q: If using W = -1 is optimal for WLS estimation of , then how suboptimal is OLS ? Recall: -1 var( opt ) = i X T -1 X i i i var( OLS ) = A-1 i X T i X i i -1 A-1 where A-1 = i XT Xi i See: Bloomfield and Watson (1975); Watson (1967) & 236 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Comment on notation here: Y = Y1 $ Y2 stack(Y i ) = . . . Yn X2 stack(X i ) = . . . Xn X1 X = & 237 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Comment on notation here: = 1 0 2 ... ... .. . ... 0 0 $ 0 block(i ) = . . . 0 0 N & 238 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Efficiency of OLS estimators Y N (X, ) Theorem: Let C be an estimable function for the linear model Y = X + where E( ) = 0, and E( T ) = . Then M(X) = M(X) implies that the BLUE and LS estimators of C are equivalent. Note: M(X) denotes the column space of X. Proof: Watson (1967) & 239 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Efficiency of OLS Example 1: N n tj = = = 10 5 (-2, -1, 0, 1, 2) 0 + 1 tj 2 {(1 - )I + J } E(Yij ) = = & 240 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Then, x = = = 2 {(1 - )I + J } x 2 (1 - ) x + nx 1 ax+b1 M(X) $ Therefore, OLS = (). & 241 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Efficiency of OLS Theorem: Rao (1965) X if and only if = XX T + ZZ T + 2 I where Z T X = 0, and , , 2 are arbitrary. This result implies that for any balanced random effects model (with conditional independence) we will have OLS = (). T -1 X -1 X T -1 = X X T -1 XT & 242 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Efficiency of OLS Example 2: consider the same mean model as in Example 1 but now assume AR(1) errors: 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 2 i = 1 1 1 & 243 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' some algebra yields var( OLS ) V11 V22 = 2 $ V11 0 0 V22 = = 0.004(5 + 8 + 62 + 43 + 24 ) 0.002(5 + 4 - 2 - 43 - 44 ) 0.01(5 - 8 + 32 )-1 0 0 0.005(5 - 4 + 2 )-1 var[()] = 2 & 244 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' ...and for certain values of we obtain: $ e(0 ) e(1 ) e(0 ) e(1 ) 0.1 0.998 0.997 0.6 0.955 0.952 0.2 0.992 0.989 0.7 0.952 0.955 0.3 0.983 0.980 0.8 0.956 0.952 0.4 0.973 0.970 0.9 0.970 0.955 0.5 0.963 0.962 0.99 0.996 0.961 Comparisons of this kind (and earlier results) suggest that in many circumstances the OLS estimator is satisfactory. This is not always the case. Consider... & 245 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Efficiency of OLS Example 3: again, assume that we have AR(1) errors and now assume n = 3 and that subjects crossover from treatment A to treatment B (and from B to A). Assume that subjects have observed treatment paths in equals numbers: AAA AAB ABA ABB BAA BAB BBA BBB This is a form of "crossover" design. & 246 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ Efficiency of OLS: Example 3 Now assume that the predictor of interest is treatment group, xij E(Yij | X i ) = 1(TXi = B, at time j) = 0 + 1 xij & 247 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' ...now for certain values of we obtain: $ e(0 ) e(1 ) e(0 ) e(1 ) 0.1 0.993 0.987 0.6 0.846 0.571 0.2 0.974 0.947 0.7 0.815 0.438 0.3 0.946 0.883 0.8 0.788 0.297 0.4 0.914 0.797 0.9 0.766 0.150 0.5 0.880 0.692 0.99 0.751 0.015 Discuss: Why the efficiency difference now? & 248 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ EDA and Covariance Models Q: What are the appropriate EDA techniques for longitudinal data? Lines plot (spaghetti plot) Average & distribution plots (boxplot, quantiles) Empirical covariance Residual "pairs" plot Standard deviation plot Variogram & 249 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' $ EDA and Covariance Models Q: What are some parametric covariance models? Mixed model ( 2 I + XDX T ) Nested models (bi + bij + eijk ) Autoregressive models Moving average models General isotropic correlation models Combined Random effects and Serial (Diggle 1988) & 250 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Example: (DLZ Example 1.1) CD4+ Cell Counts $ HIV attacks CD4+ cells. Data from the MACS study. N = 369 infected men incident cases. Analysis focuses on characterizing the process. CD4+ cell counts are used to monitor patient status, and characteristics of the longitudinal process within a patient are thought to be predictive of clinical course. More recently HIV research has focused on longitudinal measures of viral load. & 251 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' Descriptives: time Min. :-2.9900 1st Qu.:-0.3922 Median : 0.7296 Mean : 0.8284 3rd Qu.: 2.1920 Max. : 5.4590 drugs Min. :0.0000 1st Qu.:1.0000 Median :1.0000 Mean :0.7559 3rd Qu.:1.0000 Max. :1.0000 cd4 Min. : 10.0 1st Qu.: 482.8 Median : 701.5 Mean : 765.1 3rd Qu.: 964.0 Max. :3184.0 partners Min. :-5.00000 1st Qu.:-3.00000 Median :-1.00000 Mean :-0.03409 3rd Qu.: 5.00000 Max. : 5.00000 age Min. :-11.290 1st Qu.: -2.760 Median : 1.510 Mean : 2.636 3rd Qu.: 6.950 Max. : 29.080 cesd Min. : -7.000 1st Qu.: -5.000 Median : 0.000 Mean : 2.496 3rd Qu.: 6.000 Max. : 49.000 packs Min. :0.0000 1st Qu.:0.0000 Median :0.0000 Mean :0.9891 3rd Qu.:2.0000 Max. :4.0000 id Min. :10000 1st Qu.:11200 Median :30050 Mean :26190 3rd Qu.:40360 Max. :41840 $ Number of subjects = 369 Number of observations = 2376 Number of subjects with a given observations-per-subject: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 5 24 25 47 43 52 40 41 38 21 23 10 & 252 % Heagerty, Bio/Stat 571 ' MACS CD4 Data $ CD4+ cell...

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Phys 344Ch 5 Lect 4Feb 28th , 20091Wed. 3/4 Fri. 3/65.5 Dilute Solution 5.6 Chemical EquilibriumHW17: 73,76,82 HW18:83,84,86,88,89,91Mon. 3/9 Review Wed. 3/11 Exam 2 Fri. 3/ 13 (C 10.7) S 6.0, 6.1 Boltzmann Statistics HW19: 2, 3, 4, 6, 12 Bonus: Ph
Berkeley - EE - 40
EECS40/43Appendix 1Appendix 1: ResistorsFigure 1 shows how to read resistor values. The color code contains two digits, a multiplier, and a tolerance value. The bands represent a number in a modified scientific notation: the first two bands represent t
National Taiwan University - ECON - 508
Poverty in TransitionBryan GriffithCopyright 2005 Bryan M. GriffithOutlinePoverty is badInequality Happens International Aid must be targeted.Poverty Level DefinedAbsolute PovertyWorld Bank - $1 USD PPP (1993) per day World Bank - $2 USD PPP (1993
Rutgers - CS - 473
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National Taiwan University - AMIS - 626
ACCOUNTING AND MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 626 Spring 2008 Answer Key to First Examination - Part One of Two Points are assigned as follows: I. THE MCAULEYS 81 II. FILING STATUS, STANDARD DEDUCTION, AND EXEMPTIONS 32 III. INCLUSIONS 34 IV. TAX
N.C. State - CS - 5764
High-Speed Visual Estimation Using Preattentive ProcessingCHRISTOPHER G. HEALEY, KELLOGG S. BOOTH, and JAMES T. ENNS The University of British ColumbiaA new method is presented for performing rapid and accurate numerical estimation. The method is derive
UCLA - CS - 218
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NumberTheoryAlgorithmsZephGrunschlagCopyrightZephGrunschlag,20012002.AgendaEuclideanAlgorithmforGCD NumberSystems Decimalnumbers(base10) Binarynumbers(base2) Onescomplement TwoscomplementGeneralbasebnumbersystems Addition Multiplication Subtractio
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STATJ 525 Statistical Quality Control Summer 2009 All Sections Class Meetings: There will be no class meetings as such. All classes may be viewed at video.sc.edu ( no www) . Choose &quot;College of Arts and Sciences&quot; and then &quot;STAT J525&quot;. The ID is statistics
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EE 435Lecture 32 Quantization Noise in Data Converters Spectral CharacterizationReview from Last LectureNoiseWe will define Noise to be the difference between the actual output and the desired output of a system Types of noise: Random noise due to mov
Michigan - SI - 110
Copyright and Digital Media in a PostNapster WorldBy GartnerG2 and The Berkman Center for Internet &amp; Society at Harvard Law SchoolTable of contents0. Introduction.2 1. Evolution of Copyright Law: How We Got Here.3The U.S. Constitution and the Copyrigh
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2Accounting Horizons Vol. 20, No. 1 March 2006 pp. 117Geiger and RamaAudit Firm Size and Going-Concern Reporting AccuracyMarshall A. Geiger and Dasaratha V. RamaSYNOPSIS: Prior research suggests that the Big 4 audit rms are of higher quality than are
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Accounting Horizons Vol. 20, No. 1 March 2006 pp. 117Audit Firm Size and Going-Concern Reporting AccuracyMarshall A. Geiger and Dasaratha V. RamaSYNOPSIS: Prior research suggests that the Big 4 audit rms are of higher quality than are non-Big 4 rms. Ho
NYU - DOCS - 1268
The New York University Environmental Studies and Bioethics Programs invite you to attend a lecture by Dr. Hernan Sandoval President, Corporacion Chile Ambiente Damming Patagonia Monday, April 13, 2009 6:30 PM 19 University Place, Room 102 (Corner of
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A Closer Look at Discretionary Writedowns of Impaired AssetsZucca, Linda J.; Campbell, David R. Accounting Horizons; Sep 1992; 6, 3; ABI/INFORM Global pg. 30Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permi
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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis ReportPre-publication Final Draft Approved by MA Board on March 23, 2005A Report of the Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentCore Writing Team: Walter V. Reid, Harold A. Mooney, Angela Cropper, Doris Capistrano, Step
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Authoritative Sources in a Hyperlinked EnvironmentJON M. KLEINBERGCornell University, Ithaca, New YorkAbstract. The network structure of a hyperlinked environment can be a rich source of information about the content of the environment, provided we hav
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Zoo Biology 23:273278 (2004)Effect of Different Primate Species on Germination of Ficus (Urostigma) SeedsNicoletta Righini,1* Juan Carlos Serio-Silva,2 Victor Rico-Gray,1 and Rodolfo Martnez-Mota31 2 Departamento de Ecologa Vegetal, Instituto de Ecolo
Penn State - MATH - 26
MATH 261. Find r if AB = 16 and AD = 24. a) r = 6 b) r = 5 c) r = 13 d) r = 10 e) r = 11FINAL EXAM, FORM ASPRING 20066. The gure shows two right triangles drawn at 90 to each other. If ABD = 60 , C = 45 , and BC = 43, nd h. a) 43 3 b) 43 243 c) 3 d)
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1 INTRODUCTION TO BIOMETRICSAnil Jain Michigan State University East Lansing, MI jain@cse.msu.eduRuud Bolle and Sharath Pankanti IBM T. J. Watson Research Center Yorktown Heights, NY cfw_bolle,sharat@us.ibm.comAbstract Biometrics deals with identificat
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EURASIP Journal on Applied Signal Processing 2004:4, 430451 c 2004 Hindawi Publishing CorporationA Tutorial on Text-Independent Speaker Verication Frederic Bimbot,1 Jean-Francois Bonastre,2 Corinne Fredouille,2 Guillaume Gravier,1 3 Sylvain Meignier,2 T
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Pattern Recognition 36 (2003) 279 291www.elsevier.com/locate/patcogThe importance of being random: statistical principles of iris recognitionJohn DaugmanThe Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0FD, UK Received 21 December 2001
University of Rochester - PHYS - 344
Independent Probabilities Multiply, independence of statesSay state s completely specifies a molecule all freedoms-E( s) - Etrans+Erot+Eposition Evib+Eelectronic Enuclear . + + + - Etrans+Erot+Eposition Evib+Eelectronic Enuclear . + + +P(s) =eZ e=e
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Life at Low Reynolds Number E.M. Purcell Lyman Laboratory, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass 02138 June 1976 American Journal of Physics vol 45, pages 3-11, 1977. Editor's note: This is a reprint of a (slightly edited) paper of the same title that appea
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G41.2072 Topics in the English Language: Language and Style COURSE DESCRIPTIONProfessor HooverLanguage and Style is an introduction to the English language and to linguistic approaches to literature. We will study the nature, function, attitudes toward,
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Introduction to Formal LogicRichard.Pettigrew@bris.ac.ukLecture 1 Arguments and PropositionsInformation about the course2Information about the course Lectures: two per week at Mon &amp; Tues 5.10pm.2Information about the course Lectures: two per week
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R. Srikants Notes on Modeling and Control of High-Speed Networks111.1Diusion ApproximationsBrownian motion as a scaled limit of an arrival processThe central limit theorem (CLT) for random variables provides an approximation to the behavior of sums
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DELAYSLet us consider the single-link, single-source source scenario. Proportionally fair controller:x = K(1 x(t ) p(t ), where p(t) = f (x(t). At equilibrium, we have 1 x f (x ) = 0. We linearize around the equilibrium point x , x = x + z :x = z = K
Fayetteville State University - COP - 5611
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In this chapter, we consider an alternative interpretation of the utility maximization problem that we considered earlier. Consider a network planner who is interested in allocating resources to users with the goal of maximizing the sum of the user's util
George Mason - SYST - 330
Department of Systems EngineeringGeorge Mason UniversitySYST 330: Systems Methodology and Design II #8Kuo-Chu Chang Fairfax, Virginia1Design for Reliability and Safety Concepts and Definition Measure of Reliability Reliability in System design Relia
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Final exam review Math 165 Spring 2009 For review of Sections 2.14.3, see the review sheets for the midterms. 4.4. Indeterminate Forms and L'Hospital's Rule. L'Hospital's Rule: Assume that f and g are differentiable and that g (x) = 0 on an open interval
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yAAy x Ax
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Database Management Systems November 11, 2008 Lecture 17 Query Processing: Chapter 15Database Instance and Available Indexes:Examples from: Principles of Database Systems by Greg Riccardi, Addison Wesley, 2001select * from Customer where accountId = 10
University of Rochester - PHYS - 232
Mon., 3/9 Tues., 3/10 Wed., 3/11 Thurs., 3/12 Fri., 3/ 1320.1,3-4 Magnetic Force20.2,5 Current and Motional Emf Quiz Ch 19, Lab 8 Cyclotron &amp; Electron Mass Lab 20.6-8 Reference Frames and Relativity, Torque Bonus: Phys. Sr. Thesis Presentations @ 4pm Mo
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Computer Society ConnectionComputer Society and ACM Approve Software Engineering Code of EthicsDon Gotterbarn, Keith Miller, Simon Rogerson Executive Committee, IEEE-CS/ACM Joint Task Force on Software Engineering Ethics and Professional PracticesCHANG
Iowa State - EE - 330
EE 330 Lecture 40Digital CircuitsLogical Effort Elmore Delay Power Dissipation in Logic CircuitsReminderExam 2 Next Period May bring two sheets of paper to exam with notes Two attachments will also be providedDigital Circuit Design Hierarchical Desi
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MBA 501: Statistical Applications and Quantitative Methods CASE 3: LINCOLN COMMUNITY HOSPITAL or BARBARA J. KEY VS. THE GILLETTE CO. (A &amp; B) Due May 8, 2000 Select one of the following two cases. As indicated on the syllabus, you are required to turn in f
ECCD - CS - 371
CS371 Fall 2008 Prof. McGuireWilliams College Department of Computer ScienceGraphics Programming in C+ with G3DC+ is the most widely used programming language for computer graphics in both industry and research. It combines low-level features like dire
Minnesota - GLOVE - 006
TH 1101: INTRODUCTION TO THEATRE MID-TERM EXAM REVIEW Matching (section total 20 points) Your task will be to link a description of a person, idea, theatrical element, or movement to the term which most appropriately matches it. There will be ten (10) que
illinoisstate.edu - ECON - 245
Econ 245 The International Economy Cohn Fall 2008 STUDY OBJECTIVES FOR THIRD SECTION The questions on this objective sheet are meant to provide you with information concerning what material we have covered in this section. Knowing the information on this
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Lecture 9: Leaf developmentAn Arabidopsis thaliana leaf (simple, left), a Cicer arietinum leaf (pinnate, middle) and a Delonix regia leaf (bipinnate, right).Engstrom, Plant Physiology (2004)ad : adaxial ab : abaxial ce : central m : meristem pe : perip
Caltech - AY - 21
Ay 21 - Lecture 6The Hot Big Bang and the Thermal History of the UniverseThe Key Ideas Pushing backward in time towards the Big Bang, the universe was hotter and denser in a fairly predictable manner (aside from surprising &quot;glitches&quot; such as the inflat
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Eckerd - PO - 260
PO 260M: Political Science Research MethodsTuesdays and Thursdays, 3:00-4:20 pm, FO 100A Eckerd College, Fall 2008 Professor: Greg Moore Office: Franklin Templeton 238 (on outside balcony) Tel: x8308; Email: mooregj@eckerd.edu Office Hours : M: 2:00-5:00
Carnegie Mellon - ML - 96
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Carnegie Mellon - ML - 96
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Carnegie Mellon - ML - 96
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Carnegie Mellon - ML - 96
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Carnegie Mellon - ML - 96
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Wisconsin - SOC - 621
Lecture 6&amp;7 Sociology 621 September 28, 2005 CRITIQUES &amp; RECONSTRUCTIONS OF CLASSICAL HISTORICAL MATERIALISM Many criticisms have been raised against historical materialism, both from outside of the Marxist tradition and from within. Some of these I engag
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