Globalization Mega
Aging Technological development
trends
These are some of the megatrends toward 2020 identified by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. There will be relatively more elderly than youths the next decades. Today's elderly are in better health and more affluent than the elderly of the past. Many seek an active retirement with travel, experiences or other forms of selfrealization. Many may remain active in the working world beyond 65. Globalization makes us more alike across the world. The global development leads to increased liberalization and expanded trade in most countries and regions. Citizens and consumers, however, will continue to be cross-culturally different in their behavior and their preferences for products. It is not likely, that the world will be dominated by common political and ethical values in the near future. The most important technological development areas in the next decades are information technology, biotechnology, nano-technology and energy. Information technology has created enormous changes in recent decades: personal computers, the Internet, mobile telephones, industrial robots, iPods, and much more. In 2020, computers will be about 200 times faster than today's computers, and will have memories 1000 times as large. Computers and robots will take on increasingly complex assignments, and the Internet will be a breeding ground for completely new, virtual industries. In recent years, we have seen great progress in biotechnology with the mapping of the human genome, cloning of mammals, and genetic modification of plants and animals. Research in biotechnology opens the door to new, future treatments in the form of gene therapy and transplantation of cloned organs. Genetically modified plants and animals (GMO) may potentially relieve world hunger. However, at the same time, biotechnology opens a Pandora's box of ethical questions: Is it acceptable to manipulate life? Is GMO just another way for the West to exploit the Third World? Will biotechnology prompt unforeseen biological catastrophes? Nanotechnology is a general term for technology with structures on a nanometer scale (one billionth of a meter). Researchers develop nanomaterials with many fantastic characteristics such as extreme strength, special electric properties and extremely low friction. Nanoelectronics may, in a few years, replace microelectronics. A little further into the future are nanomachines: microscopic robots that, for example, swim around in our veins removing cancer and plaque. One of the great challenges of the 21st century will still be finding energy for both the new and the old industrial countries. Oil will run out eventually, so we must find alternatives. There is much research in sustainable energy from wind, the sun, and the earth's warmth and in alternative fuels such as hydrogen and biofuel. The following decades will also offer progress in atomic energy, both the traditional fission energy and the controversial fusion power that creates energy the same way the sun does.
Prosperity
Individualization
Health and environment
Acceleration
Prosperity is a megatrend because the majority of the population of OECD countries and large groups in formerly developing countries are now growing more prosperous. Between 2% and 4% growth is assumed in the western world in coming years, and in some regions - especially North America, Latin America, and Asia - the growth rate will likely reach 10%-15%. It is doubtful that Africa and the Middle East will enjoy such growth and increase in prosperity because fertility rates are expected to remain high in these regions, among other factors. Moreover, prognoses indicate the Russian middle class will grow from 50% to 85% in the next 10 years, the Chinese from 5% to 40% and the Brazilian from 25% to 50%. Gross National Product (GNP) is usually used to measure and compare the wealth of nations. The US and EU are, measured by GNP, far richer than other parts of the world, but that can change in step with the high economic growth rates and increasing employment in many developing countries. The economic growth will cause a change in the demand for new types of products, a with new business structure as a result. In short, most countries are going through a structural social and economic change in the transition from agricultural and/or industrial society to a knowledge society. When we grow richer, new needs arise and we consume more in the form of intangible products such as entertainment, experiences, services, savings and investment. More prosperity changes our consumption of traditional tangible products such as food, because affluent consumers focus on health, quality, trust, origin, animal welfare, etc. Individualization is the shift from more collectivist societal norms to more individualism. Whereas, historically ones path in life was a matter of fate (e.g., the son of a farmer usually became a farmer), today it is more a question of interest and skill rather than obligation and tradition. The 20th century may be said to be the century of individualism in Western culture. Individualization will be significant in the lives of the individuals There will be more awareness of the connection between health and the environment. Companies and corporations will not only emphasize the bottom line (profits) but will focus also on corporate social responsibility (CSR) especially concerning the environment. The American wellness industry will break sales records more money will be devoted toward fitness, spa treatments, yoga, healthy eating, nutritional supplementation, beauty care. There will be increased emphasis on lifestyle illnesses such as obesity and stress. Companies will likely do more to take into account employee health. Many already work to improve employee morale, loyalty and productivity through meal programs, fitness centers, etc. We will probably also see more countertrends to this in coming years. Life and the pace of change will continue to accelerate. There will be more knowledge for the individual to consider, more to produce and consume, more to throw out, more to communicate, more to transport, and many more people to interact with. Changes touch us on many levels, and we change job, partners, friends, interests, home, knowledge, news and ideas faster than before. Information is not just more accessible today - the entry of new products on the market goes faster and faster. A single example is that it took 13 years before 30 million video cassettes were on the market, but just eight years for the same number of CDs and only five years for 30 million DVDs. Modern people make far more daily choices than ever before, and our curiosity and our aspirations for
Urbanization
development, new knowledge and improvements will be forces that will increase the pace of change in the future 48.3% of the world's 6.5 billion people live in urban areas. The United Nations predicts that the share of the world population living in urban areas will rise to 53.6% in 2030, or about 3.9 billion people. While the average annual rate of change in urbanization towards 2030 is predicted to be only 0.5% in more developed regions, it is predicted to be 2.3% in less developed regions, primarily in Asia and Africa. Large-scale migration from region to region and countryside to urban areas continues in both Asia and the Middle East. Rapid urbanization poses a fundamental challenge the development of adequate infrastructure and liveable housing, and the maintenance of healthy environments. Other than that it also put stress on traditional ways of living, family structure and cultural values creating a growing potential for social and political unrest. On the positive side there is a historic association between economic development and urbanization is well established. Cities are crucial environments and institutional assemblages for economic growth. Current research indicates that even in less developed countries cities experience lower rates of natural population increase than rural areas, average household income is higher, and educational levels are well above those in rural areas. Thus, cities can also be seen as places of opportunity in which the major need is effective management and provision of services, creation of economic opportunity, and the provision of safe and healthy environments.