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LY PHAN THUYET 1 CHNG 1 TONG QUAT VE PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH 1.1. NOI DUNG PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH 1.1.1. Khai niem Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh (Operating activities analysis) la mon hoc nghien cu qua trnh san xuat kinh doanh, bang nhng phng phap rieng, ket hp vi cac ly thuyet kinh te va cac phng phap ky thuat khac nham en viec phan tch, anh gia tnh hnh kinh doanh va nhng nguyen nhan anh hng en ket qua kinh doanh, phat hien nhng quy luat cua cac mat hoat ong trong doanh nghiep da vao cac d lieu lch s, lam c s cho cac d bao va hoach nh chnh sach. e quan ly doanh nghiep trong nen kinh te th trng nh hien nay, oi hoi cac doanh nghiep khong nhng phai to chc hach toan kinh doanh mot cach chnh xac ma con phai tch cc to chc cong tac phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh. Cung vi ke toan va cac khoa hoc kinh te khac, phan tch hoat ong kinh la mot trong nhng cong cu ac lc e quan ly va ieu hanh co hieu qua cac hoat ong cua doanh nghiep. Tien than cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh la cong viec co tnh xem xet n gian mot so ch tieu tong quat da tren d lieu cua bang tong ket tai san con goi la phan tch ke toan hay ke toan noi bo. Do s oi hoi ngay cang cao cua nhu cau quan ly, s m rong ve quy mo cung nh xu hng i vao chieu sau va chat lng cua cac hoat ong doanh nghiep, phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh vi noi dung, oi tng pham vi va phng phap nghieu cu rieng biet, tat yeu tr thanh mot khoa hoc oc lap va ngay cang hoan chnh. 2 Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh hng en th trng khong phai nham xay dng nhng ke hoach mot cach may moc, cng nhac ma la cong cu phuc vu cho nhng quyet nh ngan han va dai han, oi hoi chu ong, linh hoat ngay ca oi vi cac mat hoat ong hang ngay cua doanh nghiep. Muc tieu cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh v the tng ong vi cac mon hoc mi xuat hien chng vai thap nien tr lai ay chu yeu cac nc phat trien, nh: ke toan quan tr management accounting; phan tch bao cao tai chnh the analysis of financial statements, quan tr tai chnh financial management. 1.1.2. oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh la qua trnh kinh doanh va ket qua kinh doanh tc s viec xay ra qua kh; phan tch, ma muc ch cuoi cung la uc ket chung thanh quy luat e nhan thc hien tai va nham chung en tng lai cho tat ca cac mat hoat ong cua mot doanh nghiep. Cac nha phan tch tm cach lng hoa nhng tac ong en ket qua kinh doanh. o la nhng yeu to cua qua trnh cung cap, san xuat, tieu thu va mua ban hang hoa, thuoc lnh vc san xuat, thng mai, dch vu. ong thi cung can phai nghien cu tnh hnh s dung cac nguon lc: von, vat t, lao ong va at ai; nhng nhan to noi tai cua doanh nghiep hoac khach quan t pha th trng va moi trng kinh doanh, a trc tiep anh hng en hieu qua cua cac mat hoat ong doanh nghiep. Do vay, qua trnh va ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh khong phai la cac so lieu chung chung ma phai c lng hoa cu the thanh cac ch tieu kinh te va phan tch can hng en viec thc hien cac ch tieu o e anh gia. V du: 3 Noi en li tc th ay la li tc trc thue hay sau thue, li tc at c trong 06 thang hay la ca nam, li tc tat ca cac mat hoat ong hay ch la ket qua cua mot mat hang chnh nao o. Hay khi noi en cac nhan to tac ong, ta co ch tieu sau: Gia tr san lng = Tong so gi lam viec x Gia tr bnh quan mot gi oi tung phan tch ay la ch tieu gia tr san lng co hai nhan to tac ong la tong so gi va gia tr bnh quan mot gi lam viec. Viec thc hien ke hoach cua oi tng phan tch se tuy thuoc vao viec thc hien ke hoach cua hai nhan to tac ong tren. 1.1.3. Nhiem vu cu the cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh anh gia gia ket qua thc hien c so vi ke hoach hoac so vi tnh hnh thc hien ky trc, cac doanh nghiep tieu bieu cung nganh hoac ch tieu bnh quan noi nganh va cac thong so th trng; Phan tch nhng nhan to noi tai va khach quan a anh hng en tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach; Phan tch hieu qua cac phng an kinh doanh hien tai va cac d an au t dai han; Xay dng ke hoach da tren ket qua phan tch; Phan tch d bao, phan tch chnh sach va phan tch rui ro tren cac mat hoat ong cua doanh nghiep; Lap bao cao ket qua phan tch, thuyet minh va e xuat bien phap quan tr. Cac bao cao c the hien bang li van, bang bieu va cac loai o th hnh tng, thuyet phuc. 4 1.2. CAC PHNG PHAP S DUNG TRONG PHAN TCH 1.2.1. Phng phap so sanh e phng phap nay c phat huy het tnh chnh xac va khoa hoc, trong qua trnh phan tch can thc hien ay u ba bc sau: Bc 1: La chon cac tieu chuan e so sanh. Trc het chon ch tieu cua mot ky lam can c e so sanh, c goi la ky goc. Tuy theo muc tieu nghien cu ma la chon ky goc so sanh cho thch hp. Neu: Ky goc la nam trc: Muon thay uc xu hng phat trien cua oi tng phan tch. Ky goc la nam ke hoach (hay la nh mc): Muon thay c viec chap hanh cac nh mc a e ra co ung theo d kien hay khong. Ky goc la ch tieu trung bnh cua nganh (hay khu vc hoac quoc te): Muon thay c v tr cua doanh nghiep va kha nang ap ng th trng cua doanh nghiep. Ky goc la nam thc hien: La ch tieu thc hien trong ky hach toan hay ky bao cao. Bc 2: ieu kien so sanh c. e phep so sanh co y ngha th ieu kien tien quyet la cac ch tieu c em so sanh phai am bao tnh chat so sanh c ve khong gian va thi gian: Ve thi gian: Cac ch tieu phai c tnh trong cung mot khoang thi gian hach toan nh nhau (cu the nh cung thang, quy, nam ) va phai ong nhat tren ca ba mat: Cung phan anh noi dung kinh te. Cung mot phng phap tnh toan. Cung mot n v o lng. 5 Ve khong gian: Cac ch tieu kinh te can phai c quy oi ve cung quy mo tng t nh nhau (cu the la cung mot bo phan, phan xng, mot nganh ) Bc 3: Ky thuat so sanh. e ap ng cho cac muc tieu so sanh ngi ta thng s dung cac ky thuat so sanh sau: So sanh bang so tuyet oi: La ket qua cua phep tr gia tr so cua ky phan tch so vi ky goc, ket qua so sanh nay bieu hien khoi lng, quy mo cua cac hien tng kinh te. So sanh bang so tng oi: La ket qua cua phep chia gia tr so cua ky phan tch so vi ky goc. Ket qua so sanh nay bieu hien toc o phat trien, mc o pho bien cua cua cac ch tieu kinh te. V du: Co so lieu tai mot doanh nghiep sau: So TT 1 2 3 4 Khoan muc Doanh thu Gia von hang ban Chi ph hoat ong Li nhuan Ke hoach 100.000 80.000 12.000 8.000 Thc hien 130.000 106.000 15.720 8.280 Chenh lech So tuyet oi +30.000 +26.000 +3.720 +280 So T (%) 30,0 32,5 31,0 3,5 Bang 1.1. Bang phan tch bien ong cac khoan muc * Chu y: Chi ph hoat ong gom chi ph ban hang cong vi chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep. So sanh tnh hnh thc hien (TH) so vi ke hoach (KH): Doanh thu: at 130%, vt 30% (30 trieu ong) Gia von hang ban: at 132,5%, vt 32,5 % (26 trieu ong) Chi ph hoat ong: at 131%, vt 31% (3,720 trieu ong) 6 Li nhuan: at 103,5%, vt 3,5% (0,28 trieu ong) Ta hay cung phan tch ve ty suat li nhuan tren doanh thu e co ket luan cuoi cung: Ty suat LN ke hoach = (8.000/100.000)x100% = 8% Ty suat LN thc hien = (8.280/130.000)x100% = 6,37% Nhan xet: Trong ky thc hien doanh thu vt ke hoach 30%, tuy nhien cac ch tieu ve gia von va chi ph kinh doanh co toc o tang trng nhanh hn so vi toc o tang trung doanh thu (32,5% va 31%) v vay lam cho li nhuan tang khong ang ke. Mat khac, ty trong cua chi ph so vi doanh thu qua hai ky nh sau: Ke hoac h: Thc hien : ( 80.000 + 12.000 ) 100.000 100% = 92% 100% = 93, 63% (106.000 + 15.720 ) 130.000 Ty trong chi ph trong ky at va vt so vi ke hoach: 93,63% - 92%= 1,63% a lam cho ty suat li nhuan giam i tng ng: 6,37% - 8% = -1,63%. Ket luan cua quan tr: Phai tm cach kiem soat chi ph ban hang va tiet kiem chi ph kinh doanh; Gi toc o tang chi ph hang ban va chi ph kinh doanh thap hn toc o tang doanh so, nham nang cao hieu qua hoat ong. So sanh bang so bnh quan: La dang ac biet cua so sanh tuyet oi, bieu hien tnh ac trng chung ve mat so lng, nham phan anh ac iem chung cua mot n v kinh te, mot bo phan hay mot tong the chung co cung mot tnh chat. So sanh mc ong tng oi co ieu chnh theo quy mo chung: 7 Mc ong tng oi la ket qua so sanh gia tr so ky phan tch vi tr so cua ky goc, nhng a c ieu chnh theo mot he so cua ch tieu co lien quan, ma ch tieu co lien quan nay quyet nh quy mo cua ch tieu phan tch. Mc ong tng oi = Ky thc hien (Ky goc x he so ieu chnh) Ta co cong thc xac nh cu the cho tng oi tng: Bien ong doanh thu = Doanh thu TH - (Doanh thu KH Ch so gia) Bien ong quy lng = Quy lng TH - (Quy lng KH %hoan thanh DT) V du: Tai doanh nghiep X trong quy I nam 2006, tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan thc te (ky phan tch) a chi ra la 300 trieu ong. Nhng neu theo d kien (ky ke hoach hay ky trc) th tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan co the chi ra la 200 trieu ong. Gia s doanh nghiep trong quy I nay a hoan thanh ke hoach san xuat san lng san pham bang 160%. Neu goi H la he so ieu chnh, F1, F0 la tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat ky thc hien va ky ke hoach, th mc bien ong tng oi c xac nh nh sau: So tuyet oi: F = F1 F0 . H So tng oi: F1 100% F 0.H Trong o, F0.H la tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan ky ke hoach, nhng a c ieu chnh theo trnh o hoan thanh ke hoach ve san lng san pham. Van dung cong thc ta tnh c: F = 300 200 x 1,6 = -20 (trieu ong) Hay tng ng vi: 300 100% = 93,7% 200 1,6 Nhan xet: Tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat thc te chi ra khong phai la tang len, ma a tiet kiem c 20 trieu ong so vi ke hoach, vi so tng oi giam i 6,3%. Ngha la neu doanh nghiep X hoan thanh ke hoach san pham 8 hang hoa la 100% th c phep chi ra la 200 trieu ong tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan. Do doanh nghiep a hoan thanh ke hoach san lng san pham bang 160%, th c phep chi ra la 320 trieu ong ve tong mc tien lng, nhng tren thc te doanh nghiep ch chi ra la 300 trieu ong nen a tiet kiem c 20 trieu ong ve chi ph tien lng cong nhan, vi so giam tng oi la 6,3% (93,7% 100%). 1.2.2. Phng phap thay the lien hoan La phng phap ma o cac nhan to lan lt c thay the theo mot trnh t nhat nh e xac nh chnh xac mc o anh hng cua chung en ch tieu can phan tch (oi tng phan tch) bang cach co nh cac nhan to khac trong moi lan thay the. Bc 1: Xac nh cong thc. La thiet lap moi quan he cua cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch qua mot cong thc nhat nh. Cong thc gom tch so cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch. V du: Doanh thu = Gia ban x San lng tieu thu ( Nhan to ) ( Nhan to ) Chi ph NVL trc tiep = So lng san xuat x Lng NVL tieu hao x n gia nguyen vat lieu Khi xay dng cong thc can thc hien theo mot trnh t nhat nh, t nhan to san lng en nhan to chat lng, neu co nhieu nhan to lng hoac nhieu nhan to chat th sap xep nhan to chu yeu trc va nhan to th yeu sau. Bc 2: Xac nh cac oi tng phan tch. So sanh so thc hien vi so lieu goc, chenh lech co c o chnh la oi tng phan tch. 9 Goi Q la ch tieu can phan tch; Goi a, b, c la trnh t cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch; The hien bang phng trrnh: Q = a . b . c at Q1: Ch tieu ky phan tch, Q1= a1 . b1. c1 Q0: Ch tieu ky ke hoach, Q0 = a0 . b0 . c0 Q1 Q0 = Q: mc chenh lech gia ky thc hien va ky goc, ay cung la oi tng can phan tch. Q = a1 . b1 . c1 a0 . b0 . c0 Bc 3: Xac nh mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to. Thc hien theo trnh t cac bc thay the. (Lu y: Nhan to a thay bc trc phai c gi nguyen cho bc sau thay the) Thay the bc 1 (cho nhan to a) a0 . b0 . c0 c thay the bang a1 . b0 . c0 Mc o anh hng cua nhan to a la: a = a1 . b0 . c0 a0 . b0 . c0 Thay the bc 2 (cho nhan to b) a1 . b0 . c0 c thay the bang a1 . b1 . c0 Mc o anh hng cua nhan to b la: b = a1 . b1 . c0 a1. b0 . c0 Thay the bc 3 (Cho nhan to c) a1 . b1 . c0 c thay the bang a1 . b1 . c1 Mc o anh hng cua nhan to c la: c = a1 . b1 . c1 a1 . b1 . c0 Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to, ta co: a + b +c = Q V du: Tai mot doanh nghiep co tai lieu sau: 10 CH TIEU So lng san pham san xuat So gi lao ong cho 1 SP n gia mot gi cong KY KE HOACH 1.000 sp 8 gi 2.000 ong KY THC HIEN 1.200 sp 7 gi 2.500 ong Bang 1.2. Tnh hnh san xuat san pham Yeu cau: Hay phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach chi ph nhan cong trc tiep. Cong viec phan tch c tien hanh nh sau: Xac nh cong thc: Goi: Q0, Q1 la san lng san pham san xuat ky ke hoach va ky thc te; H0, H1 la so gi lao ong cho 1 san pham ky ke hoach va ky thc te; P0, P1 la n gia mot gi cong cua ky ke hoach va ky thc te; C0, C1 la chi ph nhan cong trc tiep ky ke hoach va thc te; C la oi tng can phan tch; Vay ta co: C0 = Q0.H0.P0 = 1000 x 8 x 2000 = 16.000.000 ong. C1= Q1.H1.P1 = 1.200 x 7 x 2500 = 21.000.000 ong. C = C1 C0 = 21.000.000 16.000.000 = 5.000.000 ong (oi tng phan tch) Tnh cac mc anh hng cua cac nhan to: Thay the bc 1 (cho nhan to Q): Q1.H0.P0 = 1.200 x 8 x 2000 = 19.200.000 ong. Mc o anh hng cua nhan to Q: Q1.H0.P0 Q0.H0.P0 = 19.200.000 16.000.000 = 3.200.000 ong. Thay the bc 2 (cho nhan to H): 11 Q1.H1.P0 = 1.200 x 7 x 2000 = 16.800.000 ong. Mc o anh hng cua nhan to H: Q1.H1.P0 Q1.H0.P0 = 16.800.000 19.200.000 = -2.400.000 ong. Thay the bc 3 (cho nhan to P): Q1. H1. P1 = C1 = 21.000.000 ong Mc o anh hng cua nhan to P: Q1. H1. P1 Q1. H1. P0 = 21.000.000 16.800.000 = 4.200.000 ong. Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to: 3.200.000 + (-2.400.000) + 4.200.000 = 5.000.000 ong. Bc 4: Tm nguyen nhan lam thay oi cac nhan to: Neu do nguyen nhan chu quan t doanh nghiep th phai tm bien phap e khac phuc nhng nhc iem, thieu xot e ky sau thc hien c tot hn. Bc 5: a ra cac bien phap khac phuc nhng nhan to chu quan anh hng khong tot en chat lung kinh doanh va ong thi cung co, xay dng phng hng cho ky sau. * u va nhc iem cua phng phap thay the lien hoan: u iem: La phng phap n gian, de tnh toan so vi cac phng phap xac nh nhan to anh hng khac. Phng phap thay the lien hoan co the xac nh c cac nhan to co quan he vi ch tieu phan tch bang thng, tong, hieu, tch so va ca so %. Nhc iem: Khi xac nh nhan to nao o, phai gia nh cac nhan to khac khong oi, trong thc te cac nhan to co the thay oi. 12 Viec sap xep trnh t cac nhan to phai t nhan to san lng en chat lng, trong thc te viec phan biet ro rang gia nhan to san lng va nhan to chat lng la khong de dang. 1.2.3. Phng phap so chenh lech Thc chat cua phng phap nay la trng hp ac biet cua phng phap thay the lien hoan. Phng phap nay cung thc hien ay u cac bc nh vay, tuy ch khac iem sau: Khi xac nh nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch, thay v ta tien hanh thay the so lieu ma se dung so chenh lech cua tng nhan to e tnh anh hng cua tng nhan to. V du: Lay so lieu v du tren Anh hng cua nhan to san lng = (1200sp - 1000sp) x 8gi/sp x 2000/gi = 3.200.000 ong Anh hng cua gi cong tieu hao = 1200sp x (7gi/sp - 8gi/sp) x 2000/gi = 2.400.000 ong Anh hng cua n gia gi cong = 1200sp x 7gi/sp x (2500/gi -2000/gi) = 4.200.000 ong Tong hp mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to: 3.200.000 + (-2.400.000) + 4.200.000 = 5.000.000 ong Nh vay, phng phap so chenh lech ch co the thc hien c khi cac nhan to co quan he bang tch so, va thng so en ch tieu phan tch ma thoi. * Chu y: Neu co cac nhan to anh hng en ch tieu phan tch trong ky goc va thc hien: Ky ke hoach = A0 x B0 x C0 x D0 Ky thc hien = A1 x B1 x C1 x D1 Ta co: 13 Anh hng cua nhan to (A) = (A1 A0) x B0 x C0 x D0 Anh hng cua nhan to (B) = A1 x (B1 B0) x C0 x D0 Anh hng cua nhan to (C) = A1 x B1 x (C1 C0) x D0 Anh hng cua nhan to (D) = A1 x B1 x C1 x (D1 D0) 1.2.4. Phng phap lien he can oi Cung la phng phap dung e phan tch mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to ma gia chung co san moi lien he can oi va chung la nhan to oc lap. Mot lng thay oi trong moi nhan to se lam thay oi trong ch tieu phan tch ung mot lng tng ng. Nhng lien he can oi thng gap trong phan tch nh: Tai san va nguon von; can oi hang ton kho; ang thc qua trnh kinh doanh; nhu cau von va s dung von v.v.. V du: Dung phng phap lien he can oi, phan tch cac nhan to noi tai anh hng en gia tr hang ton kho cuoi ky qua so lieu sau: n v tnh: ngan ong Ch tieu Ton au ky Nhap trong ky Thc hien Ke hoach 90.000 100.000 1.100.000 1.000.000 Xuat trong ky 1.110.000 1.050.000 80.000 50.000 Ton cuoi ky Bang 1.3. Tnh hnh nhap xuat ton Ta co lien he can oi: Ton au ky + Nhap trong ky = Xuat trong ky + Ton cuoi ky Suy ra: Ton cuoi ky = Ton au ky + Nhap trong ky Xuat trong ky (Q) (a) (b) (c) 14 Goi: Q la ch tieu can phan tch; a, b, c la cac nhan to co lien he oc lap, anh hng en ch tieu can phan tch. Ta co oi tng phan tch (Q): Ton kho cuoi ky Ton kho cuoi ky = 80.000 50.000 = 30.000 ng Q = Q1 Q0 = a + b - c. Nh vay: Mc o anh hng cua nhan to a (ton au ky): a = a1 a0 = 90.000 100.000 = -10.000 ng Mc o anh hng cua nhan to b (Nhap trong ky): b = b1 b0 = 1.100.000 1.000.000 = 100.000 ng Mc o anh hng cua nhan to c (Xuat trong ky): c = c1 c0 = 1.110.000 1.050.000 = 60.000 ng Tong hp cac nhan to anh hng: Q = Q1 Q0 = a + b - c = -10.000 + 100.000 + 60.000 = 30.000 ng Phng phap can oi c s dung nhieu trong cong tac lap ke hoach san xuat kinh doanh va ngay ca cong tac hach toan. Ta xet v du cu the: T ket qua can oi gia tai san va nguon von trong bang can oi ke toan se giup nha quan ly c cau tai tnh hien tai va viec s dung nguon tai chnh o mang lai hieu qua nh the nao, e t o co nhng d bao cho thi gian ti. 15 Tai san So au nam 400 50 100 250 600 500 100 So cuoi ky 440 70 120 250 670 Chenh lech So Nguon von au nam 300 100 200 700 700 550 150 So cuoi ky 340 80 260 770 770 550 220 Chenh lech + 40 - 20 + 60 + 70 + 70 + 70 A. Tai san ngan han I. Tien II. Phai thu III. Ton kho B. Tai san dai han I. Tai san co nh II. au t dai han Cong tai san + 40 A. N phai tra + 20 + 20 I. N ngan han II. N dai han - B. Von chu s hu + 70 I. Von chu s hu 610 + 110 1. Von au t CSH 60 - 40 2.LN cha phan phoi Cong nguon von 1.000 1.110 + 110 1.000 1.110 + 110 Bang 1.4. Bang phan tch cac khoan muc bang can oi ke toan Nhn chung tong tai san cung nh nguon von cuoi ky tang 110 trieu so vi au nam, nh vay ve quy mo hoat ong doanh nghiep a tang len ang ke. Ve mat tai san: Chu yeu tang do tai san co nh tang 110 trieu, sau o la cac khoan phai thu tang 20 trieu, con au t dai han giam 40 trieu. Ve mat nguon von: Chu yeu tang do li nhuan sau thue cha phan phoi tang 70 trieu va n dai han tang 60 trieu, con n ngan han giam 20 trieu. S dung phng phap can oi e phan tch, vi s can oi gia tai san va nguon von ta thay, doanh nghiep a giam cac khoan au t dai han, tang n vay dai han e au t cho tai san co nh, ket qua hoat ong trong nam doanh nghiep a tang li nhuan sau thue cha phan phoi la 70 trieu ong. 1.2.5. Phng phap hoi quy Hoi quy noi theo cach n gian, la i ngc lai ve qua kh (regression) e nghien cu nhng d lieu (data) a dien ra theo thi gian (d lieu chuoi thi gian time series) hoac dien ra tai cung mot thi iem (d lieu thi iem hoac d lieu cheo cross section) nham tm en mot quy luat ve moi quan he gia 16 chung. Moi quan he o c bieu dien thanh mot phng trnh (hay mo hnh) goi la: phng trnh hoi quy ma da vao o, co the giai thch bang cac ket qua lng hoa ve ban chat, ho tr cung co cac ly thuyet va d bao tng lai. Theo thuat ng toan, phan tch hoi quy la s nghien cu mc o anh hng cua mot hay nhieu bien so (bien giai thch hay bien oc lap independent variable), en mot bien so (bien ket qua hay bien phu thuoc dependent variable), nham d bao bien ket qua da vao cac gia tr c biet trc cua cac bien giai thch. Trong phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh cung nh trong nhieu lnh vc khac, hoi quy la cong cu phan tch ay sc manh khong the thay the, la phng phap thong ke toan dung e c lng, d bao nhng s kien xay ra trong tng lai da vao quy luat qua kh. a. Phng phap hoi quy n Con goi la hoi quy n bien, dung xet moi quan he tuyen tnh gia 1 bien ket qua va 1 bien giai thch hay la bien nguyen nhan (neu gia chung co moi quan he nhan qua). Trong phng trnh hoi quy tuyen tnh, mot bien goi la: bien phu thuoc; mot bien kia la tac nhan gay ra s bien oi, goi la bien oc lap. Phng trnh hoi quy n bien (ng thang) co dang tong quat: Y = a + bX Trong o: Y: bien so phu thuoc (dependent variable); X: bien so oc lap (independent variable); a: tung o goc hay nut chan (intercept); b: o doc hay he so goc (slope). Y trong phng trnh tren c hieu la Y c lng, ngi ta thng viet di hnh thc co non Y 17 ^ (1.1) V du: Phng trnh tong chi ph cua doanh nghiep co dang: Y = a + bX Trong o: Y: Tong chi ph phat sinh trong ky; X: Khoi lng san pham tieu thu; a: Tong chi ph bat bien; b: chi ph kha bien n v san pham; bX: Tong chi ph kha bien. Y Y = a + bX bX a X 0 o th 1.1. ng x cua cac loai chi ph Nhan xet: Vi phng trnh tren, tong chi ph Y chu anh hng trc tiep cua khoi lng hoat ong X theo quan he ty le thuan. Khi X tang dan en Y tang; khi X giam dan en Y giam; Khi X = 0 th Y = a: Cac chi ph nh tien thue nha, chi ph khau hao, tien lng thi gian va cac khoan chi ph hanh chnh khac la nhng chi ph bat bien, khong chu anh hng t thay oi cua khoi lng hoat ong. 18 ng bieu dien a song song vi truc hoanh. Tr so a la he so co nh, the hien chi ph toi thieu trong ky cua doanh nghiep (nut chan tren o th). Tr so b quyet nh o doc (tc o nghieng cua ng bieu dien chi ph tren o th); ng tong chi ph Y = a + bX va ng chi ph kha bien bX song song vi nhau v gia chung co cung chung mot o doc b (slope). Xuat phat iem cua ng tong chi ph bat au t nut chan a (intercept = a) tren truc tung; trong khi o, ng chi ph kha bien lai bat au t goc truc toa o v co nut chan bang 0 (intercept = 0). Hay noi mot cach khac, theo noi dung kinh te, khi khoi lng hoat ong bang 0 (X=0) th chi ph kha bien cung se bang 0 (bX=0). V du chi tiet: Co tnh hnh ve chi ph hoat ong (tai khoan 641 va tai khoan 642: chi ph ban hang va chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep) va doanh thu (tai khoan 511) tai mot doanh nghiep c quan sat qua cac d lieu cua 6 ky kinh doanh nh sau: (n v tnh: trieu ong). Ky kinh doanh 1 2 3 4 5 6 Doanh thu ban hang 1.510 1.820 2.104 2.087 1.750 2.021 Chi ph hoat ong 323 365 412 410 354 403 Bang 1.5. Tnh hnh thc hien chi ph cua 6 ky kinh doanh Yeu cau: Phan tch c cau chi ph hoat ong (bat bien, kha bien) cua doanh nghiep. Hng dan: 19 Yeu cau cua van e la thiet lap phng trnh chi ph hoat ong cua doanh nghiep, tc i tm gia tr cac thong so a, b vi muc ch phat hien quy luat bien oi cua chi ph nay trc s thay oi cua doanh thu, nham en viec d bao chi ph cho cac quy mo hoat ong khac nhau hoac cho cac ky kinh doanh tiep theo. Phng trnh chi ph hoat ong co dang: Y = a + bX Trong o: a: Tong chi ph bat bien b: chi ph kha bien 1 n v doanh thu X: Doanh thu ban hang Y: Tong chi ph hoat ong Co nhieu phng phap thong ke tnh a, b nh: Phng phap cc tr: Con goi la phng phap can tren can di (High low method). Cu the e tm tr so a, b cua phng trnh theo v du tren bang cach s dung cong thc va cach tnh toan nh sau: b= Hieu so cua chi ph cao nhat va thap nhat Hieu so cua doanh thu cao nhat va thap nhat (1.2) b= 412 - 323 = 0,15 2.104 - 1.510 Trong o: Chi ph cc ai: 412 Chi ph cc tieu: 323 Doanh thu cc ai: 2.104 Doanh thu cc tieu: 1.510 T phng trnh: Y = a +bX, suy ra: a = Y bX; Tai iem at doanh thu cao nhat (high), ta co: 20 a = 412 0,15 x 2.104 = 96,4 Tai iem at doanh thu thap nhat (low), ta co: a = 323 0,15 x 1.510 = 96,4 Phng trnh chi ph kinh doanh a c thiet lap: Y = 96,4 + 0,15X Lu y: Phng phap cc tr rat n gian, de tnh toan nhng thieu chnh xac trong nhng trng hp d lieu bien ong bat thng. Trng hp tap d lieu co so quan sat ln, viec tm thay nhng gia tr cc tr gap kho khan va de nham lan, Microsoft Excel se cung cap mot cach nhanh chong va chnh xac cac gia tr thong ke: Max, min, range (=Max-Min) nh sau: Lenh s dung trong Microsoft Excel: Tools / Data Analysis/ Descriptive Statistics/ OK / Summary Statistics / OK. Column1 (doanh thu) Mean Standard Error Median Mode Standard Deviation Sample Variance Kurtosis Skewness Range Minimum Maximum Sum Count Column2 (chi ph) 1.882,00 Mean 94,92 Standard Error 1.920,50 Median #N/A Mode 232,50 Standard Deviation 54.056,40 Sample Variance -0,49 Kurtosis -0,76 Skewness 594,00 Range 1.510,00 Minimum 2.104,00 Maximum 11.292,00 Sum 6,00 Count 377,83 14,80 384,00 #N/A 36,26 1.314,97 -1,30 -0,58 89,00 323,00 412,00 2.267,00 6,00 Giai thch Gia tr trung bnh Sai so chuan Trung v Yeu v o lech chuan Phng sai (mau) o chop o nghieng Khoang (mien) Gia tr toi thieu Gia tr toi a Tong cong gia tr So lan quan sat Bang 1.6. Ket qua cac ai lng ac trng thong ke trong Microsoft Excel 21 Neu trong Tools khong hien hanh san Data Analysis, ta dung lenh: Tools / Add Ins / Analysis ToolPak / OK. Giai thch cac thong so tnh c cu the tai cot chi ph: Mean (gia tr trung bnh): la bnh quan so hoc (Average) cua tat ca cac gia tr quan sat. c tnh bang cach lay tong gia tr cac quan sat (Sum) chia cho so quan sat (Count). X= Xi i =1 n n = 2.267 = 377,83 6 Standard Error (sai so chuan): dung e o o tin cay cua gia tr trung bnh mau. c tnh bang cach lay o lech chuan (Standard Deviation) chia cho can bac 2 cua so quan sat. SX = n = 36,26 = 14,80 6 Ta co the noi: co kha nang 95% la gia tr trung bnh nam trong khoang cong tr (+/-) 2 lan sai so chuan so vi gia tr trung bnh. Theo v du tren, o la khoang: 377,83 ( 2 14,8 ) ;377,83 + ( 2 14,8 ) tc la khoang: [348,23 ; 407,43] Da vao cong thc tren ta cung thay rang: vi o lech chuan khong oi, n cang ln th S cang nho. Tc khoang dao ong se hep hn va o chnh xac se cao hn. Ngi ta cung da vao cong thc nay e tnh so quan sat can thiet n. Median (trung v): la gia tr nam v tr trung tam (khac vi gia tr trung bnh Mean). c tnh bang cach: Neu so quan sat n la so le: sap xep cac gia tr quan sat t nho en ln, gia tr ng v tr chnh gia la so trung v. 22 Neu so quan sat n la so chan: sap xep cac gia tr quan sat t nho en ln, trung bnh cong cua 2 gia tr ng v tr chnh gia la so trung v. Theo v du tren, ta sap xep cac quan sat co gia tr t nho en ln: 323, 354, 365, 403, 410, 412. Median = 365 + 403 = 384 2 Mode (yeu v): la gia tr xuat hien nhieu lan nhat. Theo v du tren, ta khong co yeu v nao ca (#N/A) Standard Deviation (o lech chuan): c xem nh la o lech trung bnh, ai dien cho cac o lech (hieu so) gia cac gia tr quan sat thc va gia tr trung bnh (Mean). o lech chuan la ai lng dung e o mc o phan tan (xa hay gan) cua cac gia tr quan sat xung quanh gia tr trung bnh. c tnh bang cach lay can bac 2 cua phng sai 2 (trung bnh cua bnh phng cac o lech: o lech am negative deviation va o lech dng positive deviation). = 2 = 1.314,97 = 36,26 ( : oc la sigma ) Sample Variance (phng sai mau): la trung bnh cua bnh phng cac o lech. Giong nh o lech chuan, no cung dung e xem mc o phan tan cac gia tr quan sat thc xung quanh gia tr trung bnh. c tnh bang cach lay tong cac bnh phng cac o lech (tong cac hieu so gia gia tr quan sat thc va gia tr trung bnh) chia cho so quan sat tr 1 (n 1). Theo v du tren ta co: 2 = ( Xi X )2 i =1 n 1 n = 1.314,97 ( 2 : oc la sigma bnh phng) 23 Kurtosis (o chop): la he so ac trng thong ke dung e o mc o ong nhat cua cac gia tr quan sat. ng cong rat chop (very peaked): nhon ng, kurtosis > 3. Neu ng bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu rat gan vi nhau (the same revenue) du co mot so t mang gia tr rat nho hoac rat ln. ng cong rat bet (very flat): phang nam, kurtosis < 3. Neu ng bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu c trai eu t nho en ln trong mot khoang rong hn. Theo v du tren, o chop bang: - 1,30. Skewness (o nghieng): la he so dung e o o nghieng khi phan phoi xac suat khong can xng theo hnh chuong eu. 24 Nghieng ve trai ta con goi la nghieng am (Skewned to the left), skewness < -1: nghieng nhieu, > 0,5: nghieng t. Neu ng bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu gan vi doanh thu ln nhat du co mot so t mang gia tr nho hn hoac rat nho ( ben trai). Nghieng ve phai ta con goi la nghieng dng (Skewned to the right), skewness > 1: nghieng nhieu, < 0,5: nghieng t. Neu ng bieu dien di ay mo ta phan phoi cac gia tr doanh thu, ta co the noi rang a so cac gia tr doanh thu gan vi doanh thu nho nhat du co mot so t mang gia tr ln hn hoac rat ln ( ben phai). Theo v du tren, o nghieng bang: -0,58. Range (khoang) also range width (hay be rong cua khoang): la o dai cua khoang quan sat (khoang bien thien), c tnh bang lay gia tr quan sat cc ai Max tr i gia tr quan sat cc tieu Min. Range = Max Min = 412 323 = 89 Minimum (gia tr quan sat cc tieu): gia tr nho nhat trong cac quan sat. 25 Min = 323 Maximum (gia tr quan sat cc ai): gia tr ln nhat trong cac quan sat. Max = 412 Sum (tong cong gia tr cua cac quan sat): la tong cong tat ca cac gia tr cua tat ca cac quan sat trong tap d lieu. Theo v du tren, ta co: Sum = Xi = 2.267 i =1 n Count (so quan sat): la so em cua so lan quan sat (n). Theo tap d lieu v du tren, ta co: n=6 Phng phap thong ke hoi quy: Con goi la thong ke hoi quy n gian (simple regression statistical) dung phng phap thong ke toan e tnh cac he so a, b cua phng trnh hoi quy da tren toan bo quan sat cua tap d lieu. ay la phng phap ang tin cay nhat va v vay oi hoi cong phu hn. Van dung so lieu v du tren, lap bang tnh cac tr so c s roi can c vao cong thc e tnh cac thong so cua phng trnh. Ta co cong thc trong thong ke toan: b= ( X X ) (Y Y ) i =1 i i n ( Xi X ) i =1 a = Y bX n 2 (1.3) (1.4) Chng minh cong thc: 26 Cong thc tren c chng minh t phng phap hoi quy cac bnh phng toi thieu cua cac hieu so (o lech : Deviation) gia cac gia tr quan sat va gia tr c lng cua bien so phu thuoc Y = a + bX . i ( ) 2 Vi phng phap tong cac bnh phng toi thieu, goi ei la bnh phng cac o lech, ta co: ei2 = (Yi Y i)2 = (Yi a bXi)2 i =1 i =1 i =1 n n n (1.5) Min ei2 i =1 n (1.6) Giai he phng trnh vi phan e tm gia tr cac thong so. Lay ao ham rieng phan theo a va cho bang 0: n (Yi a bXi)2 = 0 a i =1 Lay ao ham rieng phan theo b va cho bang 0: (1.7) n (Yi a bXi)2 = 0 b i =1 trnh chuan, vi n quan sat: (1.8) Lay ao ham roi cung chia cho -2 (hay nhan cho -1/2), ta co he phng XY = a X + b X Y = na + b X 2 (1.9) (1.10) Dung phng phap kh, giai he phng trnh co 2 an so, ta lan lc co c gia tr cac thong so a, b nh cac cong thc (1.3) va (1.4) nen tren. De dang thay c y ngha cac o lech toi thieu qua o th sau: 27 Y Yi o lech (deviation): ng hoi quy bnh quan toi thieu: Yi Y Y = a + bX Y 0 Xi X o th 1.2. o lech cua cac gia tr quan sat so vi gia tr c lng Giai thch o th: ng hoi quy Y = a + bX la ng c lng tot nhat, cha cac gia tr c lng cua Y ma o lech trung bnh gia chung va gia tr quan sat thc la nho nhat (toi thieu). Cac o lech nam pha tren ng c lng nhn t goc cua truc toa o, goi la o lech dng (Positive deviation); cac o lech nam pha di ng c lng nhn t goc cua truc toa o, goi la o lech am (Negative deviation). Tai sao la bnh phng toi thieu? Muc ch cuoi cung cua phng phap hoi quy la dung e giai thch hoac d bao mot oi tng can nghien cu. Cu the la i tm gia tr cac thong so a, b e xay dng phng trnh hoi quy tuyen tnh (ng thang) co dang tong quat: Y = a + bX . Moi gia tr c lng (c lng iem) la gia tr c lng trung bnh iem cua bien ket qua Yi . Kha nang ch co the xay ra cac gia tr trong mot khoang c lng vi mot o tin cay nhat nh ma thoi. V xac suat e gia tr thc Yi 28 bang vi gia tr c lng iem Y la bang 0, hay noi cach khac la rat kho co i kha nang xay ra. Y ngha cua phng phap bnh phng toi thieu la lam sao cho o lech trung bnh gia Y va Yi la nho nhat: Y Y 0 i ( ) Trong o, Yi la cac gia tr quan sat thc va Y = a + bX la cac gia tr c lng (gia tr trung bnh) cua Yi. Khi ay, gia tr c lng gan vi gia tr quan sat thc va phng trnh hoi quy dung e d bao se tr nen kha thi, thch hp nhat va chnh xac nhat trong ieu kien co the. n 1 2 3 4 5 6 Xi 1.510 1.820 2.104 2.087 1.750 2.021 Yi 323 365 412 410 354 403 Xi 2 Yi 2 Xi Yi 487.730 664.300 866.848 855.670 619.500 814.463 Xi X Yi Y -372 -62 222 205 -132 139 0 -55 -13 34 32 -24 25 0 ( X X ). ( X X ) (Y Y ) (Y Y ) i 2 2 i i i 2.280.100 104.329 3.312.400 133.225 4.426.816 169.744 4.355.569 168.100 3.062.500 125.316 4.084.441 162.409 20.398 796 7.585 6.594 3.146 3.498 42.017 138.384 3.844 49.284 42.025 17.424 19.321 270.282 3.007 165 1.167 1.035 568 633 6.575 11.292 2.267 21.521.826 863.123 4.308.511 Bang 1.7. Cac tr so c s thong ke Tnh gia tr trung bnh (mean) cua cac bien X, Y vi 6 quan sat: 11.292 = 1.882 6 2.267 Y= = 377,83 378 6 X= Trc het, xet mc o tng quan (correlation) gia bien so phu thuoc va bien so oc lap bang cong thc: 29 R= ( X X ) (Y Y ) i =1 i i n ( X X ) (Y Y ) i =1 i =1 i i n 2n 2 (1.11) R = +1: tng quan hoan toan va ong bien; R = -1: tng quan hoan toan va nghch bien; R cang gan 1, tng quan cang manh ( 0,8 < R < 1) ; R t 0,4 en 0,8: tng quan trung bnh; R nho hn 0,4: tng quan yeu. Theo so lieu tren, o tng quan o c: R= 42.017 ( 270.282 )( 6.575) = 0,993 Y ngha cua o tng quan noi len cng o cua moi quan he tuyen tnh cua hai bien X va Y. Tr lai, thay cac gia tr a tnh bang 1.7 vao cong thc (1.3) va (1.4) tren, ta co: b= ( X X ) (Y Y ) i =1 i i n ( Xi X )2 i =1 n = 42.017 = 0,155 270.282 a = Y bX = 377,83 ( 0,155 1882 ) = 86,12 Vay phng trnh hoi quy co dang Y = a + bX se la: Y = 86,12 + 0,155X Tnh tren phan mem Microsoft Excel: Co 2 cach thc hien tren Excel: Cach 1: dung ham Fx: Paste function 30 Tm tr so b (slope), s dung lenh: Insert / Fx / Statistical (select a category: chon loai ham) / slope (select a function: la chon ten ham) / OK / quet anh dau khoi cot d lieu Y va cot d lieu X / OK. Tm tr so a (intercept), s dung lenh giong nh tm tr so a, ch thay oi bang ten hang Slope bang ten ham Intercept (function name) Tm tr so R (correlation), dung lenh: Insert / Fx / Statistical (select a category: la chon loai ham) / Correl (select a function: la chon ten ham) / OK / quet anh dau khoi cot d lieu X va cot d lieu Y / OK. Cach 2: Dung Regression (thng dung e chay hoi quy a bien) Khi thao tac tren Microsoft Excel, ta s dung lenh: Tools / Data Analysis / Regression / OK. Trong phan Input (nhap au vao): Nhap d lieu Y vao o: Input Y Range; Nhap d lieu X vao o: Input X Range; Trong phan Output options (v tr au ra) co 2 la chon: Chon sheet mi: dung New worksheet ply; Chon sheet hien hanh: dung Output Range. Chng trnh Microsoft Excel se cho bang ket qua sau: 31 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 0,9967 0,9935 0,9918 3,2799 6 ANOVA Df Regression Residual Total 1 4 5 SS MS F Significance F 6.531,80 6.531,80 607,16 43,03 6.574,83 10,76 0,00 Coefficients Intercept X Variable 1 85,265 0,155 Standard Error 11,949 0,006 t Stat 7,136 24,641 P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 0,00 0,00 52,09 118,44 0,14 0,17 Bang 1.8. Ket qua hoi quy n bien, cho bi Microsoft Excel. Giai thch bang 1.8: Multiple R = 0,9967 la o tng quan gia Y va X (tng quan manh); R square (R2) = 0,9935: la he so xac nh (determination), bieu hien kha nang giai thch cua cac bien oc lap X en bien phu thuoc Y (kha nang giai thch cao); oc tr so a, b cot Coefficients cac he so: Intercept tung o goc (a=85,265); X Varible 1 o doc vi bien oc lap X (b = 0,155) 32 Tr so thong ke t-stat: 7,136 va 24,641 > 1,96, the hien s co y ngha ve mat thong ke mc y ngha 5% trong khoang: can tren Upper, can di Lower. Can tren va can di cua Intercept la (118,44 ; 52,09) va cua Slope la (0,17 ; 0,14). Mot so ch tieu dung e kiem nh, nh ANOVA trong bang ket qua hoi quy khong e cap het trong pham vi mon hoc nay. b. Phng phap hoi quy boi: Con goi la phng phap hoi quy a bien, dung phan tch moi quan he gia nhieu bien so oc lap (tc bien giai thch hay bien nguyen nhan) anh hng en 1 bien phu thuoc (tc bien phan tch hay bien ket qua). Trong thc te, co rat nhieu bai toan kinh te ca lnh vc kinh doanh va kinh te hoc, phai can en phng phap hoi quy a bien. Chang han nh phan tch nhng nhan to anh hng en thu nhap quoc dan, s bien ong cua ty gia ngoai hoi; xet doanh thu trong trng hp co nhieu mat hang; phan tch tong chi ph vi nhieu nhan to tac ong; phan tch gia thanh chi tiet; nhng nguyen nhan anh hng en khoi lng tieu thu Mot ch tieu kinh te chu s tac ong cung luc cua rat nhieu nhan to thuan chieu hoac trai chieu nhau. Chang han nh doanh thu le thuoc va gia ca, thu nhap bnh quan xa hoi, lai suat tien gi, mua vu, thi tiet, quang cao tiep th Mat khac, gia nhng nhan to lai cung co s tng quan tuyen tnh noi tai vi nhau. Phan tch hoi quy giup ta va kiem nh lai gia thiet ve nhng nhan to tac ong va mc o anh hng, va nh lng c cac quan he kinh te gia chung. T o, lam nen tang cho phan tch d bao va co nhng quyet sach phu hp, hieu qua, thuc ay tang trng. Phng trnh hoi quy a bien di dang tuyen tnh: Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + + biXi + bnXn + e (1.12) 33 Trong o: Y: bien so phu thuoc (ket qua phan tch); b0: tung o goc; b1: cac o doc cua phng trnh theo cac bien Xi; Xi: cac bien so (cac nhan to anh hng); e: cac sai so Lu y: Y trong phng trnh tren c bieu hien la Y c lng, ngi ta thng viet di hnh thc co non Y . Muc tieu cua phng phap hoi quy a bien la da vao d lieu lch s cac bien so Yi, Xi, dung thuat toan e i tm cac thong so b0 va bi xay dng phng trnh hoi quy e d bao cho c lng trung bnh cua bien Yi. () 1.3. TO CHC THC HIEN PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH T nghien cu noi dung va phng phap phan tch co the thay he thong phan tch bao gom cac yeu to co lien he chat che vi nhau: chi tiet, so sanh, lien he, loai tr (thay the lien hoan), tng quan hoi qui nhiem vu cua To chc phan tch kinh doanh la tao moi lien he gia cac yeu to nay trong tng noi dung phan tch cu the nh san xuat, cung ng va tieu thu, chi ph, tai chnh nham anh gia ung an tnh hnh kinh doanh cua n v va vach ra nhng tiem nang con co the khai thac trong ky kinh doanh ti. Nh vay, to chc phan tch chnh la van dung tong hp cac phng phap phan tch e anh gia ung ket qua, ch ro nhng sai lam va tm bien phap sa cha thieu sot trong kinh doanh. ay la yeu cau rat c ban, co y ngha rat thc tien oi vi ngi quan ly kinh doanh. Ro rang, trong kinh doanh moi tac phong hay cach nghien cu chung chung, ai khai chac chan se that bai. V vay sau khi thau hieu noi dung, phng phap phan tch can biet la chon noi dung, su tam va kiem tra tai lieu theo noi dung an nh, xay dng he thong ch tieu va la chon he thong phng phap thch ng. 34 Cung vi viec xac nh quy trnh, muc tieu phan tch can biet to chc lc lng thc hien quy trnh a neu, nh vay to chc phan tch co the quy ve nhng loai cong viec chu yeu nh: La chon cach ket hp cac loai hnh phan tch phu hp vi muc tieu va noi dung phan tch. To chc lc lng can bo va phng tien thc hien muc tieu phan tch a neu. Xay dng quy trnh to chc phan tch phu hp vi muc tieu va lc lng cung cac ieu kien hien co. Ngoai ra, cung nh moi mat to chc khac, to chc phan tch can c hoan thien thng xuyen nham thoa man ngay cang ay u hn nhng nhu cau thong tin cho quan ly kinh doanh, ay la phan khai quat noi dung cac khau cong viec chu yeu. 1.3.1. Phan loai cac loai hnh phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh. a. Can c vao thi ky tien hanh phan tch. Phan tch thng xuyen: La can c vao tai lieu hach toan va cac tai lieu khac hang ngay, hang tuan, nien cu phat hien nhng mat chenh lech so vi ke hoach ve mc o, tien o e co bien phap khac phuc. Phan tch nh ky: c tien hanh vao cac thi gian a nh, nham anh gia tat ca hoac tng mat hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep trong suot thi gian a nh. b. Can c vao noi dung phan tch. Phan tch toan bo: Viec phan tch se nghien cu tat ca cac mat hoat ong cua doanh nghiep va cac n v trong doanh nghiep. 35 Phan tch tng phan: La viec nghien cu tng mat hoat ong cua doanh nghiep, tng loai chi ph, tng van e ve ky thuat va to chc. c. Can c vao thi iem hoat ong kinh doanh: Phan tch trc khi HKD: Nham d bao cac muc tieu co the at c trong tng lai, cung cap cac thong tin phuc vu cho viec xay dng ke hoach. Phan tch trong khi tien hanh san xuat kinh doanh: La thc hien phan tch cung vi qua trnh hoat ong kinh doanh. Hnh thc nay thch hp cho chc nang kiem soat thng xuyen nham ieu chnh nhng sai lech gia ket qua thc hien vi muc tieu a e ra. Phan tch khi ket thuc hoat ong kinh doanh:Nham anh gia ket qua thc hien so vi ke hoach a e ra. Xac nh ro nhng nguyen nhan anh hng en ket qua o. 1.3.2. To chc phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh trong doanh nghiep. a. To chc lc lng phan tch kinh doanh. Trong bo may quan ly doanh nghiep thng khong co nhng bo phan chc nang khong lam tat ca cac cong viec ve phan tch kinh doanh. Trong ieu kien o, mot mat can ket hp chc nang tng bo phan e phan cong ro trach nhiem tng phong, ban, bo phan. ong thi, can co nhng bo phan trung tam va thanh lap hoi ong phan tch lam tham mu, cho giam oc ve phan tch, kinh doanh. Cu the, lc lng phan tch co the c to chc nh sau: Bo phan thong tin kinh te nghiep vu hang ngay gom can bo thong ke hoac can bo kinh doanh kiem nhiem co nhiem vu thong tin nhanh cac ch tieu tien o va chat lng cong viec hang ngay tai cac n v kinh doanh (phan xng, oi, ca hang, khach san). 36 Cac bo phan chc nang am nhiem cac cong viec x ly cac tai lieu thu thap c phu hp vi lnh vc cong tac cua mnh ke ca phan tch trc, phan tch hien hanh va phan tch sau thuoc phan tch chuyen e, ke ca phan tch ben trong va ben ngoai. V du: Bo phan ke toan tai vu co nhiem vu phan tch tat ca cac van e ve von: t ke hoach tai chnh, d toan chi ph en tien o huy ong, s dung cac loai von va nh ky anh gia tnh hnh tai chnh cua doanh nghiep; bo phan nhan s co nhiem vu phan tch toan bo cac van e tng ng ve lao ong, viec lam; bo phan vat t, thiet b co nhiem vu phan tch toan bo cac van e tng t ve vat t cua doanh nghiep v.v Hoi ong phan tch cua doanh nghiep co nhiem vu giup giam oc toan bo cong tac to chc phan tch kinh doanh t viec xay dng noi quy, quy trnh phan tch en hng dan thc hien cac quy trnh va to chc hoi ngh phan tch. b. Xay dng quy trnh to chc cong tac phan tch kinh doanh at ke hoach phan tch la xac nh trc ve noi dung, pham vi thi gian va cach to chc phan tch. Noi dung phan tch can xac nh ro cac van e c phan tch: co the toan bo hoat ong kinh doanh hoac ch mot van e cu the. ay la c s xay dng e cng cu the e tien hanh phan tch. Pham vi phan tch co the la toan n v hoac mot vai n v c chon lam iem e phan tch. Tuy yeu cau va thc tien quan ly ma xac nh noi dung va pham vi phan tch thch hp. Thi gian an nh trong ke hoach phan tch bao gom ca thi gian chuan b va thi gian tien hanh cong tac phan tch. Trong ke hoach phan tch, can phan cong trach nhiem cac bo phan trc tiep va phuc vu cong tac phan tch, cung cac hnh thc hoi ngh phan tch nham thu thap nhieu y kien, anh gia ung thc trang va ay u tiem nang cho phan au at ket qua cao trong kinh doanh. 37 Su tam va kiem tra tai lieu. Tai lieu lam can c phan tch thng bao gom: Cac van kien cua cac cap bo ang co lien quan en hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. Cac ngh quyet, ch th cua chnh quyen cac cap va cac c quan quan ly, cap tren co lien quan en hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. Cac tai lieu ke hoach, d toan, nh mc. Cac tai lieu hach toan. Cac bien ban hoi ngh. Cac bien ban x kien co lien quan. Y kien cua tap the lao ong trong n v. Kiem tra tai lieu can tien hanh tren nhieu mat: Tnh hp phap cua tai lieu (trnh t lap, ban hanh ngi lap, cap co tham quyen ky duyet v.v) Noi dung va phng phap tnh cac ch tieu. Tnh chnh xac cua viec tnh va ghi cac con so. Cach anh gia oi vi cac ch tieu gia tr. Pham vi kiem tra khong ch gii han cac tai lieu trc tiep lam can c phan tch ma ca cac tai lieu khac co lien quan ac biet la cac tai lieu goc. Xay dng he thong ch tieu va phng phap phan tch. Tuy noi dung phan tch ma nguon tai lieu su tam c (b) va cac loai hnh phan tch (cong tac phan loai) can xac nh he thong ch tieu phan tch va phng phap phan tch phu hp. Tuy phng tien phan tch va trnh o s dung tai lieu phan tch, he thong ch tieu cung nh tng phan he c the hien khac nhau, co the bang s o khoi thng dung trong chng trnh cho may vi tnh hay bang phan tch hoac bieu o. 38 Viet bao cao va to chc hoi ngh phan tch. Bao cao phan tch la bang tong hp nhng anh gia c ban cung nhng tai lieu chon loc e minh hoa rut ra t qua trnh phan tch. anh gia cung minh hoa cung neu ro ca thc trang va tiem nang can khai thac. T o, neu ro c phng hng va bien phap phan au trong ky ti. Bao cao phan tch can c trnh bay trong hoi ngh phan tch e thu thap y kien ong gop va thao luan cach thc hien cac phng hng bien phap a neu trong bao cao phan tch. 39 CHNG 2 PHAN TCH CHI PH VA GIA THANH 2.1. PHAN LOAI CHI PH Phan loai chi ph (classifying costs) rat can thiet e tien hanh phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh. Chi ph phat sinh mot cac khach quan trong qua trnh kinh doanh nhng phan loai chung lai la y muon chu quan cua con ngi nham phuc vu cac nhu cau khac nhau cua ngi phan tch. 2.1.1. Phan loai chung Con goi la phan loai theo noi dung chi ph hay phan loai theo he thong ke toan hien hanh. a. Chi ph san xuat: (nhom tai tai khoan 62): Chi ph san xuat co the khai quat qua s o sau: Chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep (Direct material) Chi ph ban au (Prime cost) Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep (Direct labour) Chi ph san xuat chung (Manufacturing overhead) Chi ph chuyen oi (Conversion cost) S o 2.1. C cau chi ph san xuat Chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep (TK 621): 40 Chi ph nguyen vat lieu chu yeu e che tao san pham, cau thanh san pham. ac iem nguyen vat lieu trc tiep la chuyen het gia tr mot lan vao san pham khi tham gia qua trnh san xuat va thay oi hnh thai vat chat ban au. V du: Si (det vai); Vai (may ao); at set (nung gach); Phoi sat (luyen thep); Ma (nau ng); ng (lam keo); v.v Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep (TK 622): The hien ve chi ph nhan cong: lng tra theo san pham va cac khoan phai thanh toan cho cong nhan trc tiep san xuat. Chi ph san xuat chung (TK 627): Cac chi ph phat sinh trong qua trnh san xuat: chi ph phan xng, to, oi san xuat gom: Chi ph nhan vien; Chi ph vat lieu, cong cu dung cu; Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh; Chi ph ien, nc; Chi ph bang tien khac. b. Chi ph ngoai san xuat (nhom tai khoan 64) Con goi la chi ph lu thong, tiep th hay chi ph hoat ong (operating cost). Bao gom: 41 Chi ph ban hang Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep Chi ph ban hang (TK 641): Chi ph phuc vu cho qua trnh lu thong hang hoa, gom: Chi ph nhan vien; Chi ph vat lieu, cong cu dung cu; Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh; Chi ph van chuyen, boc xep, bao quan; Chi ph quang cao, tiep th; Chi ph bang tien khac. Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep (TK 642): Chi ph phuc vu chung cho toan doanh nghiep, bao gom: Chi ph nhan vien van phong; Chi ph vat lieu, cong cu dung cu; Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh; Thue, le ph, lai vay; Chi ph hoi ngh, tiep khach, cong tac; Chi ph bang tien khac. c. Chi ph thi ky va chi ph san pham (Period costs & product costs) Chi ph thi ky: chi ph phat sinh chung trong mot ky kinh doanh, co the lien quan en nhieu oi tng hay nhieu san pham khac nhau. Chi ph san pham: chi ph gan lien, lam nen gia tr san pham, ang ton kho hoac a c ban. 2.1.2. Phan loai theo ke toan quan tr a. Chi ph kha bien, chi ph bat bien 42 Chi ph kha bien (variable costs): la chi ph thay oi cung vi khoi lng hoat ong theo mot ty le thuan. Khi khoi lng hoat ong tang len, lam cho chi ph kha bien tang theo va ngc lai, khi khoi lng hoat ong giam i, lam cho chi ph kha bien cung giam theo. Khi khoi lng hoat ong bang khong, chi ph ph kha bien cung bang khong. V du: Chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep; Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep; Chi ph hang ban (gia von hang ban); Chi ph bao b ong goi; Chi ph van chuyen, boc xep; Lng tra theo khoi lng san pham; Chi ph kha bien khac. Chi ph bat bien (Fixed costs): la chi ph khong thay oi cung vi khoi lng hoat ong. Xet cho 1 san pham (n v san pham) chi ph bat bien co quan he ty le nghch vi khoi lng hoat ong. Chi ph bat bien cho n v san pham tang len khi khoi lng hoat ong giam va ngc lai. V du: Chi ph thue nha, thue may moc thiet b; Chi ph khau hao tai san co nh trong ky; Tien lng tra theo thi gian; Chi ph quang cao, tiep th; Chi ph bat bien khac. Khao sat cac ham so chi ph: Ham so tong chi ph: Y = a + bX; o th: 43 Y Y = a + bX bX a 0 X o th 2.1. ham so tong chi ph Trong o: Y: bien so phu thuoc (dependent variable): tong chi ph (total costs); X: bien so oc lap (independet variable): khoi lng (volume); b: o doc (slope): chi ph kha bien n v (variable cost per unit of vol.); a: tung o goc (intercept point): tong chi ph bat bien (fixed cost); bX: tong chi ph kha bien (variable cost). Nhan xet: Chi ph bat bien khong oi cung vi khoi lng hoat ong, ng bieu dien chi ph bat bien the hien tren o th, song song vi truc hoanh; Chi ph kha bien thay oi cung vi khoi lng hoat ong ng doc len; Tong chi ph bang vi chi ph bat bien khi khoi lng hoat ong bang 0, ng bieu dien tong chi ph bat au t iem chi ph bat bien (nut chan) va song song vi ng chi ph kha bien v gia chung co chung mot o doc b: chi ph kha bien n v; 44 Mot s thay oi trong chi ph kha bien n v tc thay oi o doc (b) se lam cho ng bieu dien chi ph kha bien (bX) va ng bieu dien tong chi ph (Y = a + bX) dch chuyen. Khi thay oi tang len, ng bieu dien chi ph kha bien va ng bieu dien tong chi ph se dch chuyen ve ben trai (shift to the left); ngc lai khi thay oi giam i, cac ng bieu dien tren se dch chuyen ve ben phai (shift to the right); o nhay cam (co gian) cua chi ph kha bien hay tong chi ph trc s thay oi cua khoi lng hoat ong, le thuoc vao o ln cua chi ph kha bien n v, tc o doc tren o th. b. Chi ph trc tiep va chi ph gian tiep: Chi ph trc tiep (direct costs): la chi ph cau thanh san pham , gan lien vi gia mot san pham hoac mot dch vu nhat nh. Chi ph gian tiep (indirect costs): la chi ph co lien quan en nhieu san pham, khong trc tiep lam tang gia tr san pham (non value added costs). c. Chi ph c hoi (opportunity costs): La li ch (benefit) b bo qua khi quyet nh la chon gia cac phng an; li ch cua mot d an b bo qua tr thanh chi ph cua d an c chon. Khai niem chi ph c hoi la yeu to quan trong va chu yeu khi tnh toan hieu qua cua d an ve mat tai chnh (financial value) cung nh ve mat kinh te (economic value) mac du chung khong c phan anh trong so sach cua ke toan tai chnh. d. Chi ph chm (sunk costs): Con goi la chi ph lch s hay chi ph qua kh, a phat sinh thc te va a c ke toan ghi tren so sach; tuy nhien, chung khong c e cap khi tnh toan hieu qua kinh te cua nhng d an trong tng lai, nham tranh nhng bop meo (distortions) trc viec ra quyet nh. 45 Chi ph c hoi va chi ph chm la nhng pham tru rat kho nhan thc oi vi cac nhan vien ke toan chuyen nghiep. 2.2. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN CHI PH Dung phng phap so sanh, phan tch chung cac ch tieu chu yeu da vao cac ch tieu goc: ch tieu ke hoach, ky trc, bnh quan nganh hoac th trng. 2.2.1. Tong mc chi ph thc hien La ch tieu khai quat ve tnh hnh thc hien chi ph trong ky, c so sanh n gian gia tong chi ph thc hien va chi ph ke hoach. He so khai quat tnh hnh thc hien chi ph = He so >1: chi ph tang so vi ke hoach. He so <1: chi ph giam so vi ke hoach. Chi ph thc hien Chi ph ke hoach (2.1) Tuy nhien, chi ph ma trong o cac yeu to chi ph kha bien thay oi cung vi s thay oi cua khoi lng hoat ong, v vay ban than he so khai quat tren cha noi len c ban chat cua s tang, giam chi ph. Muon phan tch chat lng cua chi ph phai at chung trong moi quan he vi doanh thu hoat ong thc te. 2.2.2. Ty suat chi ph Ty suat chi ph = Tong chi ph 100% Doanh thu (2.2) Ty suat chi ph cho biet can bao nhieu ong chi ph e tao ra mot ong doanh thu. Khi phan tch chung, can lu y tnh chat ng x cua chi ph: bat bien, kha bien. Tong mc chi ph thay oi theo khoi lng hoat ong tuy nhien ty suat chi ph thng on nh hoac bien ong rat t trong nhieu thi ky. V vay, ay la mot loai ch tieu chat lng tieu bieu dung lam thc o tnh hieu qua trong viec ieu hanh, quan ly chi ph. Moi nganh nghe kinh doanh khac nhau thng co mot ty suat chi ph ac trng khac nhau. 46 2.2.3. Tiet kiem chi ph Mc boi chi hay tiet kiem chi ph la phan chenh lech gia chi ph thc hien thc te so vi chi ph thc hien c tnh tren c s ty suat chi ph ke hoach so vi doanh thu thc hien. Mc tiet kiem (-) hay boi chi (+) = Doanh thu TH ( TSCP thc hien - TSCP ke hoach ) V du minh hoa: Co tai lieu tai mot doanh nghiep sau: Ch tieu Doanh thu Gia von hang ban Ty suat gia von hang ban Chi ph hoat ong Ty suat chi ph Li nhuan Ty suat li nhuan Ke hoach 1.000 800 80% 140 14% 60 6,0% Thc hien 1.200 960 80% 162 13,5% 78 6,5% Chenh lech +200 +160 0% +22 -0,5% +18 +0,5% Bang 2.1. Tnh hnh li nhuan va ty suat li nhuan Tong chi ph thc hien so vi ke hoach: So tuyet oi: 162 140 = +22 So tng oi: 162 100% = 115, 7% 140 Ty suat chi ph: Ke hoach: Thc hien: 140 100% = 14% 1.000 162 100% = 13,5% 1.200 Mc tiet kiem chi ph: Tong chi ph thc hien tnh theo ty suat chi ph ke hoach: = 1200 x 14% = 168 Tong chi ph thc hien thc te = 162. 47 Mc tiet kiem chi ph = 162 168 = -6. Ty le tiet kiem so vi doanh thu: 6 100% = 0,5% . 1.200 Mc tang li nhuan do tiet kiem chi ph: Li nhuan thc hien thc te = 78. Li nhuan thc hien tnh theo ty suat li nhuan ke hoach = 1.200 x 6% = 72. Mc tang li nhuan do tiet kiem chi ph = 78 72 = 6. Ty le mc tang li nhuan so vi doanh thu: Nhan xet: Ty suat chi ph thc hien thc te thap hn ke hoach: 13,5% -14% =-0,5%. Vi gia nh theo so lieu tren, ty suat gia von hang ban khong oi, mc tiet kiem chi ph la 6 trieu ong (ty le 0,5%) a lam tang mc li nhuan tng ng: (6,5% - 6%)x 1.200 = 6 trieu ong. 6 100% = 0,5%. 1.200 2.3. PHAN TCH CAC KHOAN MUC CHI PH CHU YEU Cac khoan muc chi ph eu chu anh hng bi cac nhan to hnh thanh chi ph. Gia chung eu co moi quan he tuyen tnh, trc tiep anh hng en chi ph va co the sap at e phan tch mc o anh hng tng nhan to bang cac phng phap ky thuat cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh. Trong cong tac quan ly doanh nghiep, chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san xuat hang hoa la nhng ch tieu kinh te quan trong, luon luon c cac nha quan ly quan tam, chu trong. o la v, chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san pham la nhng ch tieu phan anh chat lng cua moi hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. 48 Thong qua nhng thong tin ve chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san pham, nhng ngi quan ly doanh nghiep nam c chi ph san xuat va gia thanh san pham thc te cua tng loai hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. T o phan tch, anh gia tnh hnh thc hien cac nh mc chi ph va d toan chi ph, tnh hnh s dung tai san vat t, lao ong tien von, tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh san pham e co nhng quyet nh trong quan ly kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. Tuy theo tng loai hnh hoat ong cua doanh nghiep, chi ph san xuat co the uc chia thanh cac khoan muc chi ph khac nhau. Song, ay ch trnh bay phng phap phan tch tnh hnh bien ong mot so khoan muc chu yeu sau ay: Khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep. Khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep. Khoan muc chi ph san xuat chung. Ba khoan muc tren the hien c nhng chi ph c ban cua cac yeu to san xuat kinh doanh va thong thng chiem ty trong ln trong gia thanh san pham cua doanh nghiep. 2.3.1. Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep. Khoan muc chi ph nguyen lieu, vat lieu trc tiep (direct material cost) bao gom chi ph ve nguyen lieu, vat lieu chnh, vat lieu phu, nhien lieu s dung va muc ch trc tiep san xuat kinh doanh san pham hang hoa. Khong tnh vao khoan muc nay nhng chi ph nguyen lieu, vat lieu s dung vao muc ch chung. Khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu thng chiem ty trong ln trong gia thanh san pham san xuat cua doanh nghiep. 49 Ngay nay, khi tien bo khoa hoc ky thuat a phat trien nhanh chong, nang suat lao ong c tang len khong ngng dan en s thay oi c cau chi ph trong gia thanh san pham. o la ty trong hao ph lao ong song giam thap, con ty trong hao ph lao ong vat hoa ngay cang tang len. Bi vay, viec phan tch cac nhan to anh hng en cac khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu, tm moi bien phap giam bt chi ph nguyen vat lieu trong gia thanh san pham co mot y ngha rat ln, lam tang mc li nhuan cho cac doanh nghiep. e san xuat ra san pham, cac doanh nghiep phan ln phai s dung nhieu loai nguyen vat lieu. Do vay tong mc chi ph nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat san pham phu thuoc vao cac nhan to: Khoi lng san pham hoan thanh (quantity of finished products ky hieu: Mq); Ket cau ve khoi lng san pham (Density of finished products ky hieu: Md); nh mc tieu hao nguyen vat lieu cho mot n v san pham (material norm of product ky hieu: Mn); n gia cua nguyen vat lieu (material unit price ky hieu: Mu). Vay, tong mc chi ph nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat san pham c xac nh bang cong thc: M = qn u e phan tch trnh o hoan thanh ke hoach ve tong mc chi ph nguyen vat lieu, trc het phai xac nh oi tng phan tch: M = M1 - M0 = q1 n1 u1 - q0 n0 u0 Cac nhan to anh hng c xac nh nh sau: 50 Do anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng va nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat: Ta s dung cong thc e tnh mc anh hng cua nhan to Mq,d nh sau: Mq,d = Mq,d M0 = q n u q n u 1 0 0 0 0 0 Do anh hng cua nhan to tieu hao nguyen vat lieu: Cong thc s dung theo phng phap thay the lien hoan: Mn = Mn - Mq,d = Cong thc s dung: q n u q n u 1 1 0 1 0 0 Do anh hng cua nhan to n gia nguyen vat lieu: Mu = M u - M n = q n u q n u 1 1 1 1 1 0 Tong hp s anh hng cua ba nhan to tren: M = Mq,d + Mn + Mu = M1 M0 V du minh hoa: Phan tch bien ong khoan muc tong chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep, can c vao tai lieu thu thap c tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau: Ten san pham Khoi lng san pham hoan thanh KH 20 TH 25 Loai nguyen vat lieu a b a b n gia nguyen vat lieu (1000) KH 20 30 20 30 TH 22 28 22 28 Mc tieu hao NVL cho san xuat 1 SP (kg) KH 10 15 18 15 TH 8 12 20 14 A B 50 50 Bang 2.2. Tnh hnh s dung nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat 51 Hng dan: e co the tnh nhanh chong va chnh xac cac ch tieu phan anh mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to en khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep ta lap bang sau: Ten san pham Chi ph nguyen vat lieu cho SX san pham trong moi ky Chi ph nguyen vat lieu vi s bien ong cua cac nhan to q0 n0 u0 4.000 9.000 18.000 22.500 q1 n1 u1 4.400 8.400 22.000 19.600 q1 n0 u0 5.000 11.250 18.000 22.500 q1 n1 u0 4.000 9.000 20.000 21.000 A B Tong cong 53.500 54.400 56.750 54.000 Bang 2.3. Bien ong cua chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep Can c anh gia bien ong cua cac nhan to: nh mc tieu hao cua tng loai nguyen vat lieu cho n v san pham. Nhan to nay cang giam, chng to trnh o s dung nguyen lieu e san xuat n v san pham hang hoa cang tiet kiem. Con nhan to nay cang tang len, ieu o se c anh gia ngc lai. n gia cua tng loai nguyen vat lieu: Nhan to nay phu thuoc vao rat nhieu yeu to, nh: + Gia mua nguyen vat lieu: ay la mot nhan to khach quan. Bi v, gia ca la do quan he cung cau tren th trng quyet nh. Neu cung ln hn cau th gia re hn, con neu cung nho hi cau th gia at hn. + To chc qua trnh thu mua nguyen vat lieu: Gia ca la nhan to khach quan. Song, to chc qua trnh thu mua hp ly la cho: doanh nghiep tm ra th trng ma o nguyen vat lieu co quan he cung ln hn cau, at doanh nghiep se mua c nguyen vat lieu vi gia re hn. 52 Mat khac, doanh nghiep can nghien cu phng thc thu mua, thanh toan, van chuyen, bao quan, boc xep phu hp vi chi ph la thap nhat. Do o, n gia cua tng loai nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat n v san pham hang hoa la thap nhat. ong thi doanh nghiep cung phai chu y en ca chat lng nguyen vat lieu c cung ng. Co nh vay, mi am bao chat lng san pham san xuat ra at tieu chuan chat lng cao. 2.3.2. Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep. Khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep (direct labor cost) bao gom chi ph ve tien cong, tien trch bao hiem xa hoi, bao hiem y te va kinh ph cong oan cua cong nhan trc tiep san xuat (goi tat la chi ph tien lng cong nhan san xuat). Khong tnh vao khoan muc chi ph nay la so tien cong va trch bao hiem xa hoi, bao hiem y te, kinh ph cong oan cua nhan vien san xuat chung, nhan vien quan ly va nhan vien ban hang. Khoan muc tong mc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep c anh gia tren c s xac nh mc bien ong tuyet oi va mc bien ong tng oi. Phan tch tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep c thc hien chu yeu qua hai cach tnh toan mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to, viec ap dung cach tnh nao tuy thuoc vao d lieu thu thap tai doanh nghiep ma chnh xac nhat. Cach 1: Da tren cac nhan to nh: so lng san pham san xuat, tieu hao gi cong e san xuat ra mot n v san pham, n gia tien cong lao ong cho mot gi cong. Theo phng phap thay the lien hoan hay so chenh lech ta co the xac nh c mc o anh hng cua 03 nhan to nay en tong chi ph nhan cong cua doanh nghiep. Cach 2: Gia s tong mc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep chu anh hng bi hai nhan to: So lng cong nhan san xuat va tien lng bnh quan. Co the viet di dang cong thc sau ay: 53 Tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat = So lng cong nhan x Tien lng bnh quan Hay co the viet di dang ky hieu: L = T.X Bang phng phap loai tr, co the xac nh s anh hng lan lt tng nhan to en ch tieu phan tch, nh sau: oi tng phan tch: L = L 1 - L 0 = T1 . X 1 T 0 . X 0 L: Mc chenh lech tuyet oi ve tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat gia thc te vi ke hoach. L1, L0: Tong mc tien lng cua cong nhan san xuat ky thc te va ky ke hoach. Do anh hng cua nhan to so lng cong nhan san xuat: LT = (T1 - T0) .X0 Do anh hng cua nhan to tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat: LX = (X1 - X0) .T1 Tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat chu s tac ong bi hai nhan to: ket cau cong nhan cua tng bo phan san xuat hoac tng loai cong nhan trong doanh nghiep va tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat trong tng bo phan hoac tng loai cong nhan. Neu ta goi d1, d0 la ket cau cong nhan san xuat cua tng bo phan hoac tng loai cong nhan trong doanh nghiep ky thc te va ky ke hoach. Ket cau cong nhan c xac nh bang cong thc: d1 = t1 t0 ; d0 = T1 T0 54 Trong o: t1 - t0 la so lng cong nhan san xuat tng bo phan, hay tng loai cong nhan san xuat trong doanh nghiep ky thc te va ky ke hoach. Goi x1; x0 la tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat tng bo phan hoac tng loai cong nhan ky thc te va ke hoach cua doanh nghiep. Co the xac nh s anh hng lan lt tng nhan to en tien lng bnh quan cua cong nhan san xuat trong doanh nghiep, nh sau: Do anh hng cua nhan to ket cau cong nhan: Ld = T1 .d1.x0 - T1.d0.x0 = (d1 - d0).T1.x0 Do anh hng cua nhan to tien lng bnh quan cua tng bo phan hoac tng loai cong nhan trong doanh nghiep. Lx = T1 .d1.x1 - T1.d1.x0 = (x1 - x0).T1.d1 Tong hp mc o anh hng cua tng nhan to, anh gia nhng nguyen nhan va kien ngh nhng bien phap, nham giam chi ph tien lng trong gia thanh n v san pham, gop phan nang cao mc li nhuan cho doanh nghiep. L = LT + Ld + Lx 55 V du minh hoa: Phan tch khoan muc tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep qua so lieu sau: Ch tieu - Gia tr san lng hang hoa (trieu ong) - So lng cong nhan san xuat (ngi) Trong o: + Cong nhan san xuat chnh + Cong nhan san xuat phu - Tien lng bnh quan (1.000) Trong o: + Cong nhan san xuat chnh + Cong nhan san xuat phu Ke hoach 1.000 100 Thc hien 1.200 200 70 30 440 180 20 580 500 300 600 400 Bang 2.4. Tnh hnh chi ph tien lng tai doanh nghiep Hng dan: - Xac nh oi tng phan tch: L = L1 - L0 = 116.000.000 44.000.000 = 72.000.000 - Mc tac ong cua nhan to san lng en chi ph nhan cong trc tiep: LT = (T1 - T0).d 0.x0 = 44.000.000 - Tac ong cua nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat: Ld = T .d .x - T .d .x = (d 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 - d0).T1.x0 = 8.000.000 - Tac ong cua nhan to tien lng cua tng loai cong nhan: Lx = T1 .d1.x1 - T1.d1.x0 = (x1 - x0).T1.d1 = 20.000.000 - Tong hp cac nhan to anh hng: L = LT+Ld+Lx = 44.000.000+8.000.000+20.000.000=72.000.000 - Tnh cac ch so phu phuc vu cho qua trnh anh gia so lieu: 56 Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach gia tr san lng: 1.200 100% = 120% 1.000 Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach so lng cong nhan: 200 100% = 200% 100 Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach nang suat lao ong: 120% 100% = 60% 200% Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach tien lng bnh quan: 580 100% = 131,82% 440 2.3.3. D bao chi ph san xuat chung bang hoi quy n S dung phng phap thong ke hoi quy nham e d bao chi ph san xuat chung theo khoi lng san xuat linh hoat, ieu nay se giup cho nha quan ly co the chu ong ieu tiet lng hang san xuat cho phu hp vi quy mo hoat ong tnh hnh tai chnh cua n v. Goi: Y: la chi ph san xuat chung a: la nh ph san xuat chung b: la bien ph san xuat chung tren 1 n v san pham X: so lng san pham can san xuat Ta co phng trnh hoi quy cua chi ph san xuat chung Y (bien so phu thuoc - dependent variable) theo khoi lng san pham can san xuat X (bien so oc lap - independent variable) nh sau: Y = a + bX (2.3) 57 Lay v du minh hoa tai mot doanh nghiep co tnh hnh san xuat qua 6 thang au nam nh sau: n v tnh: 1.000 Ky san xuat So lng san xuat trong ky (san pham) Tong chi ph san xuat chung trong ky 1 2 3 4 5 6 10.000 11.000 12.000 13.000 14.000 15.000 115.000 117.500 120.000 122.500 125.000 127.500 Bang 2.5. Tong chi ph san xuat chung tieu hao tai doanh nghiep S dung Microsoft excel e tnh e tm phng trnh hoi quy, cu the la tm tung o goc a (intercept) va o doc hay he so goc b (slope), cac thao tac thc hien nh sau: Lenh: Tools / Analysis / Regression / OK / chon d lieu a vao o Input Y Range va o Input X Range. Ta c ket qua sau: 58 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 0,9931 0,9863 0,9829 559,2512 6 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total 1,00 4,00 5,00 SS MS F 287,96 Significance F 0,00 90.062.285,71 90.062.285,71 1.251.047,62 91.313.333,33 312.761,90 Coefficients Standard Error Intercept X Variable 1 92.509,52 2,27 1.686,61 0,13 t Stat 54,85 16,97 P-value 0,00 0,00 Lower 95% 87.826,75 1,90 Upper 95% 97.192,30 2,64 Bang 2.6. Bang ket qua phan tch cho bi Microsoft Excel T ket qua cho bi Microsoft Excel, ta tm c phng trnh 2.3 va c viet lai nh sau: Y = 92.509,52 + 2,27X Giai thch cac thong so: (2.4) Gia tr thong so b = 2,27, ch ra o doc cua ng hoi quy oi vi bien X, mang y ngha la: trong khoang gia tr X (khoi lng san xuat) t 10.000 san pham (min) en 15.000 san pham (max) khi X thay oi tang 1 n v th Y (chi ph san xuat chung) se tang len c lng mot cach trung bnh vao khoang 2,27 n v. 59 Gia tr thong so a = 93.509,52 ch ra tung o goc cua ng hoi quy, mang y ngha la chi ph san xuat chung toi thieu khi ma X bang 0. Nhng cach giai thch nh vay la may moc va ap at; hn na, khong co gia X nao trong tap d lieu tren ay bang 0 nh vay ca. Vi phng 2.4, lanh ao doanh nghiep co the d bao c chi ph san xuat chung tng ng vi quy mo san xuat cac ky tiep theo, chang han t v du tren ta co the d bao chi ph san xuat chung cho 6 thang con lai cua nam vi cac mc khoi lng t 16.000 en 21.000 san pham: Ky san xuat So lng san xuat trong ky (san pham) Tong chi ph san xuat chung trong ky 7 8 9 10 11 12 16.000 17.000 18.000 19.000 20.000 21.000 128.830 131.100 133.370 135.640 137.910 140.180 Bang 2.7. D bao chi ph san xuat chung cho cac thang cua nam 2.4. PHAN TCH BIEN ONG GIA THANH 2.4.1. Phan tch bien ong gia thanh n v Muc ch phan tch: Phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh n v san pham se giup cho cac nha quan ly biet c mot cach chnh xac va cu the tnh hnh thc hien cac nh mc kinh te ky thuat, tnh hnh tiet kiem hay vt chi tren tng khoan chi ph. T o, anh gia c chnh xac cong tac quan ly gia thanh cua toan doanh nghhiep, a ra c cac bien phap hu hieu e giam gia thanh. Phng phap phan tch: 60 Bc cong viec au tien khi phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh n v san pham la anh gia chung. Viec anh gia chung tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh n v san pham c tien hanh bang phng phap: So sanh gia gia thanh n v thc te vi gia thanh n v ke hoach tren tng loai san pham ca ve so tuyet oi va so tng oi. Qua ket qua so sanh, se neu len nhan xet chung ve bien ong gia thanh n v san pham. San pham Nam nay KH A B C D 1.880 1.350 1.410 3.250 TH 1.920 1.306 1.360 3.310 Nam trc 1.900 1.450 1.520 TH so vi KH So tien + 40 - 44 - 50 + 60 Ty le + 2,13% - 3,26% - 3,55% + 1,85% TH so vi NT So tien + 20 - 144 - 160 Ty le + 1,05% - 9,93% -10,52% - Bang 2.8. Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh n v Thc hien so vi ke hoach: The hien tnh hnh ke hoach gia thanh; Thc hien so vi nam trc: The hien xu hng phat trien, cai tien gia thanh cua doanh nghiep. Phan tch chung: Nam nay doanh nghiep a xay dng ke hoach ha thap gia thanh vi tinh than tch cc (ke hoach so vi nam trc). Tat ca san pham eu co ke hoach gia thanh thap hn so vi nam trc; San pham (B) va (C) eu co gia thanh thc hien thap hn so vi nam trc, chng to doanh nghiep a thc hien tot nhiem vu ha gia thanh san pham oi vi 2 san pham nay; oi vi san pham (A) gia thanh thc hien cao hn ke hoach va nam trc, do o can phai i sau xem xet nguyen nhan lam cho san pham (A) tang so vi ke hoach e ra; 61 oi vi san pham (D) la san pham mi, gia thanh thc hien cao hn so vi ke hoach th can xem xet lai viec xay dng ke hoach co sat vi thc te khong. 2.4.2. Phan tch bien ong tong gia thanh san pham so sanh c Muc ch phan tch: Nham anh gia chung tnh hnh bien ong gia thanh theo tng loai san pham va toan bo san pham san xuat trong ky. Giup chung ta nhan thc mot cach tong quat kha nang tang hay giam li tc cua doanh nghiep do anh hng cua gia thanh san pham nao. qn: khoi lng san xuat nam trc; q0: khoi lng san xuat ky ke hoach; q1: khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien; zn: gia thanh san pham nam trc z0: gia thanh san pham ke hoach z1: gia thanh san pham thc hien San pham so sanh c: La nhng san pham a chnh thc san xuat nhieu ky va qua trnh san xuat on nh, co gia thanh san xuat tng oi chnh xac, la can c e so sanh khi s dung lam tai lieu phan tch. San pham khong so sanh c: La nhng san pham mi a vao san xuat hoac mi san xuat th, qua trnh san xuat cha on nh, do o gia thanh thc te con co nhieu bien ong, cha u can c e so sanh khi s dung lam tai lieu phan tch. Xac nh oi tng phan tch: Viec phan tch c tien hanh tren 2 ch tieu phan tch la mc ha va ty le ha gia thanh: Mc ha: Bieu hien bang so tuyet oi cua ket qua ha gia thanh nam nay so vi nam trc, phan anh kha nang tang li tc, tang tch luy nhieu hay t, ky hieu: M. 62 Ty le ha: Bieu hien bang so tng oi cua ket qua ha gia thanh nam nay so vi nam trc, ch tieu nay phan anh toc o ha nhanh hay cham va trnh o quan ly trong viec phan au ha thap gia thanh, ky hieu: R. Cong thc xac nh mc ha va ty le ha: M = M1 M0 R = R1 R0 Vi: M1 = q1.z1 M0 = q0.z0 R1 = R0 = q .z q .z 1 0 n n M1 100% q1.zn M0 100% q0.zn Xac nh cac nhan to anh hng en oi tng phan tch: e tnh toan chung ta s dung phng phap thay the lien hoan e phan tch, nham xac nh cac nhan to anh hng en mc ha gia thanh thc te so vi ke hoach va ty le ha gia thanh thc te so vi ke hoach. Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng (ky hieu q): Nhan to san lng thng i kem vi nhan to ket cau. Nhan to ket cau khong anh hng en nhan to san lng neu ty trong cua cac mat hang la nh nhau. Neu san lng tang ma ket cau khong oi va gia thanh khong oi th cac mat hang coi nh eu hoan thanh vi ty le nh nhau, do o khi tien hanh thay the ta c: Goi k la ty le gia khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien so vi ke hoach, nh vay ta xac nh k thong qua cong thc sau: 63 k= q .z q .z 1 0 n n 100% Khi o q1 la khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien, ta viet lai: q1 = k.q0 Thay the vao cong thc tnh mc ha va ty le ha ke hoach, ta c: Mq = k.q0.z0 Rq = k.q .z 0 n = k.M0 (2.5) Mq k.M0 100% = 100% = R0 k.q0.zn k. q0.zn T cong thc 2.5 ta tnh mc tac ong cua nhan to khoi lng san xuat en oi tng phan tch nh sau: Mq = Mq M0 = M0 ( k 100%) Rq = Rq - R0 = 0 Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat (ky hieu d): Thay the san lng san xuat ky thc hien vao cong thc tnh mc ha va ty le ha ke hoach, ta c: Md = Rd = q .z 1 0 q .z 1 n Md 100% q1.zn (2.6) T cong thc 2.6, ta de dang xac nh c s tac ong cua nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat en oi tng phan tch thong qua cong thc: Md = Md Mq Rd = Rd - Rq Anh hng cua nhan to gia thanh n v (ky hieu z): Gi nguyen san lng san xuat thc te, ta thay the gia thanh n v vao trong cong thc xac nh Md va Rd, cong thc c viet lai nh sau: 64 Mz = Rz = q .z 1 1 q .z 1 n = M1 (2.7) Mz 100% q1.zn T cong thc 2.7, ta tnh c mc o anh hng cua nhan to gia thanh n v en oi tng can phan tch qua cong thc: M z = M z M d Rz = Rz - Rd Tong hp tac ong cua ba nhan to anh hng phai bang vi oi tng can phan tch: M = Mq +Md +Mz R = Rq + Rd +Rz V du minh hoa: Co tai lieu ve tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh tai mot doanh nghiep sau: n v: ong Khoi lng san xuat San pham Ke hoach A B C 12.000 1.800 1.800 Thc hien 12.400 2.000 2.400 Nam trc 40.000 26.000 410.000 Ke hoach 39.200 26.000 393.600 Thc hien 40.840 26.000 396.880 Gia thanh n v san pham Bang 2.9. Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh Yeu cau: Hay phan tch tnh hnh thc hien nhiem vu ha thap gia thanh cua SP so sanh c. 65 Hng dan: e co the tnh toan c nhanh va chnh xac cac ch tieu trong dau xch ma (), can phai co cac phng phap thch hp e hoan tat cac ch tieu o. Dang bang tnh di ay co the phuc vu cho cong viec tnh toan: n v tnh: 1.000 San pham A B C Tong cong q0 zn 480.000 46.800 738.000 1.264.800 q0 z0 470.400 46.800 708.480 1.225.680 q1 zn 496.000 52.000 984.000 1.532.000 q1 z0 486.080 52.000 944.640 1.482.720 q1 z1 506.416 52.000 952.512 1.510.928 Bang 2.10. Bang phan tch bien ong tong gia thanh oi tng phan tch: gom co mc ha (M) va ty le ha (R) M = M1 M0 = -21.072 - (-39.120) = 18.048 (ng) R = R1 R0 = -1,375% - (-3,093%) = 1,718% Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng san xuat (q): Tnh ty so khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien so vi ke hoach: k= q .z q .z 1 0 n n 100% = 1.532.000 100% = 121,12% 1.264.800 Mc o anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng en oi tng phan tch: Mq = M0 ( k - 100%) = -39.120 (121,12%-100%) = -8.262,144 (ng) Rq = Rq - R0 = 0 Nhan to khoi lng san xuat khong anh hng (khong tac ong) en ty le ha gia thanh cua doanh nghiep. Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau khoi lng san xuat (d): Md = Md Mq = -49.280 - (121,12% -39.120) = -1.897,856 (ng) Rd = Rd - Rq = -3,216% - (-3,093%) = -0,123% 66 Anh hng cua nhan to gia thanh n v san pham (z): Mz = Mz Md = -21.072 - (-49.280) = 28.208 (ng) Rz = Rz - Rd = -1,375% - (-3,216%) = 1,841% Tong hp ba nhan to anh hng en oi tng phan tch: M = -8.262,144 + (-1.897,856) + 28.208 = 18.048 (ng) R = Rq + Rd +Rz = 0 + (-0,123) + 1,841 = 1,718% anh gia: Trong ky thc hien doanh nghiep a khong hoan thanh ke hoach tong gia thanh e ra, cu the la tong gia thanh a tang len 18.048 (ng) tng ng vi gia thanh a tang vi ty le la 1,718% so vi ke hoach. Tong gia thanh tang se lam cho li nhuan cua doanh nghiep giam, gay bat li cho doanh nghiep. Neu i vao phan tch chi tiet hn, ta thay tong gia thanh tang la do gia thanh n v tao nen, gia thanh n v tang a lam cho tong gia thanh tang them 28.208 (ng) tng ng vi toc o tang la 1,841%, ay la nhan to chu quan xuat phat t noi tai doanh nghiep va ieu nay chng to rang cong viec quan ly chi ph san xuat la khong co hieu qua. Nhan to khoi lng san xuat va ket cau san pham san xuat bien ong theo chieu hng co li cho doanh nghiep (nhan to khoi lng lam giam 8.262,144 ngan ong, con nhan to ket cau san pham san xuat lam giam 1.897,856 ngan ong). Tuy nhien ay la hai nhan to tac ong mot cach khach quan, do o khong the lay ay la can c e noi en tnh hieu qua quan ly chi ph san xuat cua doanh nghiep. 2.4.3. Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra e thay c moi quan he gia chi ph va ket qua thu nhap trong hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh, nhat la nhng doanh nghiep co san xuat nhng san pham khong the so sanh c, ma loai nay chiem ty trong ln trong tong so san pham 67 san xuat c cua doanh nghiep. V vay, viec phan tch ke hoach ha thap gia thanh cua san pham so sanh c khong thay c s phan au thc hien cua doanh nghiep, do o ta nen phan tch ch tieu chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham hang hoa ban ra. Phng phap phan tch: So sanh chi ph bnh quan cho 1.000 ong hang hoa ban ra gia cac ky phan tch e anh gia chung mc chenh lech gia cac ky. Sau o dung phng phap thay the lien hoan e xac nh cac nhan to anh hng va tm nguyen nhan gay ra mc chenh lech chi ph bnh quan gia cac ky can phan tch. Xac nh oi tng phan tch: Ta goi cac ky hieu sau: C: chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra; C0: chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra ky ke hoach; C1: chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra ky thc hien; q: khoi lng san pham; u: chi ph n v san pham; p: n gia ban san pham. Cong thc xac nh chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra la: C= q u 1000 q p Nh vay oi tng phan tch se la: C = C1 C0 Tnh cac mc o tac ong cua cac nhan to anh hng en oi tng phan tch: Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng (ky hieu q): 68 Goi k la ty le gia khoi lng ky thc hien so vi ke hoach, nh vay ta xac nh k thong qua cong thc sau: k= q u q u 1 0 0 0 100% Khi o q1 la khoi lng san xuat ky thc hien, ta viet lai: q1 = k.q0 Thay the vao cong thc tnh chi ph C ky ke hoach, ta c: Cq = k.q u 1000 = k. q u 1000 = C k. q p k.q p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mc o tac ong cua nhan to khoi lng en oi tng phan tch: Cq = Cq C0 = 0 Vay nhan to khoi lng khong anh hng en chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra. Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau san pham (ky hieu d): Thay the khoi lng thc te vao cong thc tnh chi ph C0, ta c: Cd = q u 1000 q p 1 1 0 0 Khi o, mc o tac ong cua nhan to ket cau c xac nh thong qua cong thc sau: Cd = Cd Cq Anh hng cua nhan to chi ph n v san pham (ky hieu u): Thay the chi ph n v san pham ky thc te vao cong thc tnh chi ph Cd, ta tnh c chi ph C khi co s bien ong cua ket cau san pham (Cu): Cu = q u 1000 q p 1 1 1 0 69 Suy ra: Cu = Cu Cd Anh hng cua nhan to n gia ban (ky hieu p): Cu = Suy ra: q u 1000 = C q p 1 1 1 1 1 Cp = Cp Cu Tong hp cac nhan to tac ong phai bang vi oi tng can phan tch: C = Cq + Cd + Cu + Cp V du minh hoa: Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra tai mot doanh nghiep vi d lieu thu thap c sau ay: San lng SX San pham (san pham) KH A B C 11.000 1.000 2.100 TH 10.900 900 2.200 KH 40.000 25.000 50.000 Gia thanh n v (ong) TH 48.000 25.000 48.000 KH 60.000 40.000 90.000 Gia ban n v (ong) TH 70.000 40.000 100.000 Bang 2.11. Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach gia thanh va gia ban Hng dan: Lap bang tnh toan phuc vu cho cong viec phan tch co dang: n v tnh: 1.000 ong San pham A B C Tong cong q0 u0 440.000 25.000 105.000 570.000 q0 p0 660.000 40.000 189.000 889.000 q1 u0 436.000 22.500 110.000 568.500 q1 p0 654.000 36.000 198.000 888.000 q1 u1 523.200 22.500 105.600 q1 p1 763.000 36.000 220.000 651.300 1.019.000 Bang 2.12. Phan tch bien ong gia thanh va gia ban 70 Xac nh oi tng phan tch: C = C1 C0 = 639,16 641,17 = -2,01 (ong) Tnh mc tac ong cua cac nhan to en oi tng phan tch: Anh hng cua nhan to khoi lng (ky hieu q): Cq = Cq C0 = 0 (cong thc a c chng minh) Nhan to khoi lng khong anh hng en bien ong cua chi ph C. Anh hng cua nhan to ket cau san pham (ky hieu d): Cd = Cd Cq = 640,20 641,17 = -0,97 (ong) Anh hng cua nhan to chi ph n v san pham (ky hieu u): Cu = Cu Cd = 733,45 - 640,20 = 93,25 (ong) Anh hng cua nhan to n gia ban (ky hieu p): Cp = Cp Cu = 639,16 733,45 = -94,29 (ong) Tong hp cac nhan to anh hng en oi tng can phan tch: C = 0 + ( -0,97 ) + 93,25 + ( -94,29 ) = -2,01 (ong) anh gia: Trong ky thc hien doanh nghiep a giam c chi ph (a hoan thanh ke hoach chi ph) so vi ke hoach la 2,01 ong, ieu nay cung co ngha la c 1.000 ong doanh so ban ra doan nghiep a tiet kiem c 2,01 ong chi ph. Neu i vao phan tch chi tiet hn ta thay nguyen nhan doanh nghiep a giam c chi ph C nay la do nhan to gia ban mang lai, gia ban tang a lam cho chi ph C giam c 94,29 ong. Nhan to chi ph n v san pham a lam tang chi ph C 93,25 ong, tuy nhien mc tang cua nhan to chi ph n v lai thap hn (cham hn) so vi nhan to gia ban mang lai, ieu nay a tao nen hieu qua quan ly chi ph cua doanh nghiep. 71 Co the do doanh nghiep a cai tien chat lng hay mau ma san pham a lam cho chi ph n v tang, mc tang chi ph n v nay la con cao, phng hng quan ly ky ti la tiep tuc giam chi ph n v san pham e co the tang c li nhuan cua doanh nghiep. 72 CHNG 3 PHAN TCH TNH HNH TIEU THU 3.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG VE TNH HNH TIEU THU HANG HOA 3.1.1. Y ngha va nhiem vu phan tch Tieu thu san pham la qua trnh thc hien gia tr va gia tr s dung cua san pham hang hoa. Qua tieu thu, san pham chuyen t hnh thai hien vat sang hnh thai tien te va ket thuc mot vong luan chuyen von. Co tieu thu san pham mi co von e tien hanh tai san xuat m rong, ay manh toc o luan chuyen von nang cao hieu qua viec s dung von. Qua tieu thu tnh chat hu ch cua san pham mi c xac nh mot cach hoan toan. Co tieu thu c san pham mi chng to nang lc kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, the hien ket qua cong tac nghien cu th trng v.v... Mat khac qua tieu thu doanh nghiep khong nhng thu hoi c nhng chi ph vat chat trong qua trnh san xuat kinh doanh ma con thc hien c gia tr lao ong thang d, ay la nguon quan trong nham tch luy vao ngan sach, vao cac quy cua doanh nghiep nham m rong quy mo san xuat va nang cao i song can bo cong nhan vien. Nh vay, nhiem vu cua ngi phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu cua doanh nghiep gom cac cong viec chu yeu sau ay: anh gia ung an tnh hnh tieu thu ve mat so lng, chat lng mat hang, anh gia tnh kp thi cua tieu thu. Tm ra nguyen nhan va xac nh mc o anh hng cua cac nhan to en tnh hnh tieu thu. 73 e ra cac bien phap nham ay nhanh toc o tieu thu san pham, tang khoi lng san pham tieu thu ve so lng va chat lng. 3.1.2. Phan tch khai quat Tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach tieu thu hang hoa c phan tch hai mat so lng va gia tr. Phan tch mat gia tr e anh gia tong quat tnh hnh hoat ong, mc o hoan thanh chung ve ke hoach tieu thu; Phan tch mat so lng e xem xet chi tiet tng mat hang va s anh hng cua cac nhan to noi tai va cac nhan to khach quan. Khi phan tch can chu y en moi quan he can oi gia ton au ky, nhap trong ky va ton cuoi ky trong ang thc ke toan e xac nh anh hng cua mua vao va d tr en viec thc hien ban ra, ta co cong thc sau: Ton au ky + San xuat (nhap) trong ky = Xuat trong ky + Ton cuoi ky Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc so lng: Bang 3.1. Tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc so lng San pham A B C VT Cai Chiec Chiec Ton au ky K/h 46 200 10 T/h 90 200 9 Nhap trong ky K/h 920 4.000 200 T/h 800 4.100 250 Xuat tieu thu K/h 920 4.000 180 T/h 840 4.000 200 Ton cuoi ky K/h 46 200 30 T/h 50 300 59 Thc hien phng phap so sanh, ta co bang sau: Bang 3.2. Chenh lech gia thc hien va ke hoach khoi lng tieu thu San pham A B C Ton au ky Ch.lech 44 0 Ty le 95,65% 0,00% Nhap trong ky Ch.lech Ty le Xuat tieu thu Ch.lech -80 0 20 Ty le -8,70% 0,00% 11,11% Ton cuoi ky Ch.lech 4 100 29 Ty le 8,70% 50,00% 96,67% -120 -13,04% 100 50 2,50% 25,00% -1 -10,00% 74 Nhan xet: oi vi san pham A: ton kho au ky tang 44 san pham (tc tang 95,65% so vi ke hoach), nhap trong ky a giam 120 san pham (tc giam 13,04% so vi ke hoach), ton kho cuoi ky van tang 4 san pham (tc tang 8,70% so vi ke hoach). Mc ton kho au ky va cuoi ky bien ong theo chieu hng co li cho doanh nghiep, tuy nhien can nghien cu them cac nguyen nhan a lam cho khoi lng tieu thu giam e ieu chnh kp thi. o co the la nguyen nhan chu quan (chat lng hang hoa, gia ca, phng thc ban,) hoac khach quan (xu hng xa hoi, thu nhap, chnh sach Nha nc,) oi vi san pham B: cac ch tieu co bien ong tot va can oi (nhap, xuat, ton). Tuy nhien, trong ky nhap tang 100 san pham (tc tang 2,5% so vi ke hoach nhap) a lam cho ton kho cuoi ky tang 100 san pham (tc tang 50% so vi ke hoach). oi vi san pham C: nhap trong ky va tieu thu trong ky eu tang so vi ke hoach, tuy nhien toc o tang cua hang nhap trong ky cao hn xuat tieu thu (25% > 11,11%) va mat du ch tieu ton kho au ky a 1 san pham (tc giam 10% so vi ke hoach) van lam cho ton kho cuoi ky tang qua cao: 29 san pham (tc tang 96,67% so vi ke hoach), gay ong von cho doanh nghiep. Nh vay, tnh hnh tieu thu dien bien khong eu. Ngoai tr san pham B at ket qua tieu thu, san pham C vt ke hoach 11,11%, trong khi o san pham A khong at ke hoach en 8,7%. Ch tieu ton kho cung la mot yeu to e xem xet tnh hnh tieu thu. Ton au ky bien ong la do tnh hnh tieu thu ky trc; trong khi o, ton kho cuoi ky chu anh hng cua tnh hnh tieu thu ky nay. 75 Phan tch theo hnh thc so lng va ch tieu ton kho giup doanh nghiep anh gia mot cach lien tuc nhieu ky cho tng mat hang va co quyet nh quan tr phu hp. Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc gia tr: San pham A B C D Tong cong So sanh Gia ban co nh 0,600 0,125 0,666 0,178 Ton au ky K/h 27,60 25,00 6,66 59,26 T/h 54,00 25,00 5,99 84,99 San xuat trong ky K/h 552,00 500,00 133,20 T/h 480,00 512,50 166,50 66,75 Tieu thu trong ky K/h 552,00 500,00 119,88 T/h 504,00 500,00 133,20 62,30 Ton cuoi ky K/h 27,60 25,00 19,98 72,58 T/h 30,00 37,50 39,29 4,45 111,24 1.185,20 1.225,75 1.171,88 1.199,50 143,42% 103,42% 102,36% 153,25% Bang 3.3. Tnh hnh tieu thu theo hnh thc gia tr Nhan xet: Tnh hnh chung ve tieu thu at 102,36% la tot cho doanh nghiep; trong o, mat hang co ty trong cao at ke hoach (san pham B). Tuy nhien, ton kho au ky vt ke hoach: 143,42% va nhap trong ky vt ke hoach: 103,42%. Do khong ay manh tieu thu, nhat la nhng mat hang co gia tr cao (san pham A) a lam cho gia tr hang hoa ton kho cuoi ky vt ke hoach rat cao: 153,25%. Can xem xet lai kha nang tieu thu cac loai hang hoa tren th trng, tnh hnh thc hien cac hp ong hoac xem xet lai chat lng san pham, phng thc ban hang, to chc ky thuat thng mai. 3.1.3. Phan tch bo phan Da vao tai lieu phan tch: Cac hp ong mua ban (hoac hp ong ngoai thng); tnh hnh va ket qua thc hien (cac bang thanh ly hp ong) e phan tch toan dien, xuyen suot qua trnh kinh doanh. Bao gom: 76 Phan tch cac yeu to au vao: nguon cung cap hang hoa, nhom nguon cung cap hang; phng thc thu mua. Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo nhom hang, mat hang chu yeu. Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo phng thc ban hang, hnh thc thanh toan; ty trong cua tng loai. Phan tch tnh hnh tieu thu theo th trng: nhom th trng, th trng chu yeu, th trng mi m, th trng co han ngach va th trng t do. Moi noi dung phan tch tren eu co y ngha oi vi viec hnh thanh chien lc kinh doanh lau dai, on nh hoac xac nh cac giai phap trc mat cua doanh nghiep. Ket qua phan tch la c s cho cac quyet nh quan tr ve: c cau san pham, chien lc tiep th, chat lng hang hoa, gia ca canh tranh, trong tng giai oan kinh doanh hoac trong chien lc dai han. Phng phap phan tch da vao cac phng phap a nghien cu chung 1. Tuy thuoc vao yeu cau va oi tng phan tch, s dung cac phng phap ky thuat tng thch. V du: Can c vao v du tren, phan tch tnh hnh hoan thanh ke hoach mat hang chu yeu (hoac theo nhom hang) ve mat tieu thu: Nguyen tac phan tch ch tieu nhom hang, mat hang chu yeu la: khong c bu tr lan nhau gia phan vt ke hoach cua mat hang nay vi mat hang kia. Y ngha cua viec phan tch nh vay nham bao am tnh hnh thc hien cho tng hp ong (ca 2 trng hp: cung ng va tieu thu), gi c uy tn doanh nghiep, s on nh lau dai oi vi cac khach hang truyen thong va cac nha cung ng tin cay. 77 Ty le hoan thanh ke hoach mat hang chu yeu (ve mat tieu thu): = (840x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(180x0,666) (920x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(180x0,666) x 100% = 1.123,88 1.171,88 x 100% = 95,90% So sanh vi ty le hoan thanh ke hoach chung (ve mat tieu thu): = (840x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(200x0,666) (920x0,6)+(4.000x0,125)+(180x0,666) x 100% = 1.199,50 1.171,88 x 100% = 102,36% Nhan xet: Mac du ty le hoan thanh ke hoach tieu thu: 102,36% tuy nhien ty le hoan thanh ke hoach mat hang chu yeu ch at 95,95%. Can c vao cach tnh toan tren, ta thay rang: ch can co mot mat hang (hoac mot nhom hang) khong at ke hoach tieu thu se lam cho ty le hoan thanh ke hoach mat hang chu yeu khong at ke hoach. ay la y ngha chu yeu cua noi dung phan tch nay. Phe phan cach tnh phiem dien, ch at nang ve doanh so ban hoac kim ngach xuat khau mac du chung la c s khong the thieu trong khi tien hanh xem xet nhieu ch tieu phan tch khac. 3.2. NGUYEN NHAN ANH HNG EN TNH HNH TIEU THU Co 2 loai nguyen nhan chnh: Nguyen nhan chu quan (thuoc ve doanh nghiep) Tnh hnh cung cap (au vao); Chat lng, chung loai, c cau hang hoa; Phng thc ban hang, chien lc tiep th; To chc va ky thuat thng mai. Nguyen nhan khach quan (thuoc ve ben ngoai hay con goi la moi trng kinh doanh) 78 Chnh sach v mo cua chnh phu nham on nh hoa nh: chnh sach tien te, chnh sach tai khoa, chnh sach ve ty gia hoi oai; Tnh hnh xa hoi: c cau nen kinh te, thu nhap, mc song, tap quan, le hoi, mua vu; Tnh hnh the gii, khu vc: cac khuynh hng thng mai, xu the hoi nhap, khu vc hoa va toan cau hoa, Nhng nguyen nhan bat thng va nh tnh ve ban chat khac. Trong khi phan tch nhng nhan to anh hng en tnh hnh tieu thu, han nhien co mot so van e rat kho hoac khong the can o c. Tuy vay, e ket qua phan tch co gia tr, cac nhan to can c co gang nh lng trong kha nang co the. Chnh thong tin c lng hoa o mi ung ngha la he thong thong tin hu ch cua ke toan c s cua cac quyet nh quan tr. Va ch co ieu nay mi lam cho phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh nen thuyet phuc va se la mot hoat ong thng xuyen c quan tam tai cac doanh nghiep. Trong qua trnh phan tch, ngoai cac phng phap ky thuat a trnh bay, ac biet la phng phap hoi quy rat hu dung, ngi ta con van dung nhieu kien thc ve ly thuyet kinh te va nhng thuat toan phc tap khac, tr giup cho cong tac phan tch. 3.2.1. Nguyen nhan chu quan a. Tnh hnh cung cap (thu mua) Tnh hnh tieu thu, trc het le thuoc vao tnh hnh cung cap (au vao). Cong thc chung dung e so sanh: Khoi lng hang hoa mua thc te Khoi lng hang hoa mua ke hoach Phan tch nguyen nhan: x 100% Von, tien mat; 79 Th trng cung ng; Nang lc van chuyen, bao quan, kho bai; To chc, ky thuat tac nghiep. b. Tnh hnh d tr hang hoa Phan tch tnh hnh ton kho: Hang ton kho phai bao am khong e tnh trang thieu hut, khong u khoi lng, lam mat khach hang va c hoi kinh doanh. Tuy nhien ton kho qua ln lam ong von (tang chi ph s dung von) va tang chi ph bao quan hang ton kho, gay anh hng en hieu qua chung. Ton kho phai luon kp thi va va u (ch khong phai ay u). V vay, doanh nghiep can co ben canh cac nha cung cap uy tn va bang cac hp ong lau dai, on nh. Tat nhien, ieu nay khong n gian ac biet trong nen kinh te th trng, luon chu nhieu bien ong bat nh. e am bao nguon cung cap va gia ca hang hoa, nguyen vat lieu, mot so cac doanh nghiep ac biet la cac doanh nghiep san xuat che bien hang xuat khau thng co nhng ke hoach gn gi nguon hang thong qua viec au t, ng trc cho cac nha cung cap hoac trc tiep to chc san xuat va xuat khau. He hong ton kho kp thi JIT: Just in time ma ngi Nhat s dung rat hanh cong, co the c tom tat rang: cung ng phai ung luc va ung khoi lng can thiet e chi ph hang ton kho thap nhat va tien en bang khong. Nhng s dung chung e at hieu qua la ca mot nghe thuat va khong phai la ieu de dang. Phan tch luan chuyen hang hoa: So vong luan chuyen hang hoa (so vong quay kho); Ky luan chuyen (so ngay cho 1 vong). (Phan tch cu the trong chng Phan tch tai chnh) c. Gia ban 80 Gia ca la nhan to anh hng khong t en khoi lng hang hoa tieu thu, anh hng en li nhuan cua doanh nghiep. Neu doanh nghiep nh mc gia ban qua cao se lam cho khoi lng tieu thu b giam sut. Khi gia ban tang th khoi lng tieu thu se giam xuong. Tuy nhien, mc o tang hoac giam cua san pham tieu thu con phu thuoc vao mc ap ng nhu cau tieu dung cua tng loai hang hoa, nhng san pham thiet yeu cho tieu dung nh lng thc thc pham, th khoi lng tieu thu t phu thuoc vao gia ca. Ngc lai, nhng san pham cao cap, xa x, khoi lng san pham tieu thu se giam neu gia ca tang len. V vay, x nghiep can quyet nh khoi lng san pham tieu thu va gia ca nh the nao cho that hp ly nham mang lai hieu qua kinh te cao nhat. Nguyen nhan gia ca tang cu the la do: Do tnh chat oc quyen oi vi san pham nay. Quan ly kem trong khau san xuat hay khau quan ly gia thanh a lam cho gia thanh n v tang gay bat li. Do chat lng chat san pham uc cai thien, doanh nghiep tieu ton nhieu nguyen vat lieu cung nh cong sc lao ong vao o, ay gia thanh n v san xuat tang ong ngha phai tang gia ban ra d. Chat lng hang hoa Viec tieu thu san pham chu anh hng rat nhieu en chat lng san pham qua viec chat lng san pham kem hn vi cac loai san pham khac cung loai tren th trng, khi phan tch chat lng san pham can chu y : Nhu cau xa hoi ngay cang tang, oi hoi lng hang hoa ngay cang cao neu va gia ca on nh hp ly, khong ap ng c nhu cau th hang hoa khong ban c gay ong von. 81 Nhu cau oi hoi trong quan ly san xuat, neu hao ph qua ln, gia thanh cao th hang hoa se kho tieu thu c, do o phai giai quyet hai hoa gia van e chat lng, chi ph nham am bao cho hang hoa tieu thu c. Nang cao uy tn san pham doanh nghiep la nhan to quan trong cho cac nha kinh doanh va anh hng en khoi lng tieu thu. X nghiep ch co the nang cao uy tn cho san pham khi am bao chat lng san pham on nh, gia ca tng oi on nh, luon co u hang cung ng cho th trng va cac dch vu mua ban tot. Uy tn la nhan to quyet nh ay manh hang hoa tieu thu co chat lng cao. e. Phng thc tieu thu va phng thc thanh toan Phng thc tieu thu: Phng thc tieu thu cung anh hng rat ln en viec tieu thu san pham hang hoa nh : ban trc tiep hoac ban qua cac to chc trung gian, ban s va le Doanh nghiep phai ap dung linh ong cac phng thc va phai quan tam nhieu en cong tac cham soc khach hang. (kenh phan phoi san pham) Phng thc thanh toan: Phng thc thanh toan cung anh hng en viec tieu thu nh : ban thu tien mat, ban tra gop, ban theo phng thc chuyen tien (T/T), nh thu (D/P) hay th tn dung (L/C). Viec ap dung phng thc nao con tuy thuoc vao tnh hnh tai chnh hien tai cua doanh nghiep. 3.2.2. Nguyen nhan khach quan a. Nguyen nhan thuoc chnh sach nha nc Mc o anh hng en doanh thu t chnh sach thue, cac chnh sach kinh te cua chnh phu va tnh hnh giao thng quoc te; Mc o tac ong cua ty gia hoi oai va th trng tai chnh, tien te; Tac ong cua khung hoang kinh te va canh tranh; Chnh sach bao ho vi cac chien lc thng mai va cong nghiep hoa. 82 b. Nguyen nhan thuoc ve xa hoi Phan tch nhu cau, thu nhap, thay oi tap quan tieu dung. Trong o, nhu cau tieu dung la mot ham so cua thu nhap va co moi quan he thuan bien vi thu nhap. Tong quat: Thu nhap tang Thu nhap giam nhu cau tieu dung tang; nhu cau tieu dung giam. Tuy thuoc va nhu cau toi thieu hay cao cap ma chung se co nhng ng x khac nhau trc s thay oi cua thu nhap. Nhu cau thiet yeu: Tieu dung cho nhu cau thiet yeu tang nhanh khi thu nhap tang va co mc bao hoa. V du: lng thc, thc pham, cong nghe pham tieu dung, Nhu cau toi thieu Thu nhap 0 o th 3.1. Xu hng nhu cau thiet yeu Nhu cau trung lu: Khi thu nhap tang, tieu dung cho nhu cau trung lu tang cham sau o tang nhanh va co mc bao hoa. V du: may mac, nha , trang thiet b sinh hoat, phng tien i lai ca nhan, mot so nhu cau tinh than. 83 Nhu cau toi thieu Thu nhap 0 o th 3.2. Xu hng nhu cau trung lu Nhu cau cao cap: Khi thu nhap tang, nhu cau cao cap tang cham, sau o tang nhanh va khong gii han. V du: nha cao cap, phng tien ca nhan sang trong, giai tr, du lch nc ngoai, thng ngoan, nghe thuat, ton giao, thi trang, tham hiem cung trang, sao hoa, Nhu cau toi thieu Thu nhap 0 o th 3.3. Xu hng nhu cau cao cap c. Phan tch o co gian cua cau Khai niem: o co gian noi chung (Elastic) la mot khai niem c s dung trong rat nhieu moi quan he kinh te khac nhau, dung e o mc o nhay cam cua mot bien phu thuoc oi vi mot bien oc lap. 84 o co gian la ty le so sanh gia s thay oi cua bien ket qua va cua bien kia la tac nhan. Qua o, o co gian ch ra rang c 1 phan tram thay oi trong bien oc lap (nguyen nhan) se lam thay oi bao nhieu phan tram trong bien phu thuoc (oi tng phan tch). V du: o co gian cua cau mot loai hang hoa dch vu so vi gia cua chnh hang hoa dch vu o; o co gian cua cau so vi gia hang hoa thay the hay so vi gia hang hoa bo sung; o co gian cua cau so vi thu nhap (hay thu nhap kha dung); o co gian cua khoi lng hang tieu thu so vi chi ph quang cao, tiep th; o co gian cua au t hay cua tiet kiem so vi thu nhap Cong thc tnh o co gian cua cau so vi gia: La ty le gia thay oi cua lng cau so vi thay oi cua gia (chnh xac hn la ty le cua phan tram thay oi cua lng cau so vi phan tram thay oi cua gia. Cong thc di ay a c viet theo loi n gian). Q P Q Q ED = = P Q P P Trong o: ED la o co gian cua cau; Q = Q1 Q0 la s thay oi cua lng cau; (3.1) P = P1 P0 la s thay oi cua gia. V du: co so lieu ve mot loai hang hoa nh sau: Khoi lng tieu thu: 100 n v tai gia ban: 50; Khoi lng tieu thu: 120 n v tai gia ban: 40. 85 o co gian cua cau so vi gia cua loai hang hoa nay se la: (1 2 0 1 0 0 ) ED = 0, 2 100 = = 1 0, 2 (40 50 ) 50 ac iem cua o co gian cua cau so vi gia: Khong co n v tnh; Luon nho hn 0 (ED <0) Khao sat tren o th: P P P0 P1 (D) Q 0 Q0 Q Q1 o th 3.4. o co gian cua cau so vi gia tg = P : o doc cua ng cau (D) Q o doc quyet nh dang dap cua ng cau tuyen tnh (the ng hay nam); trong khi o, o co gian o lng s nhay cam cua cau (bien ket qua) trc s thay oi cua gia (bien oc lap). V vay, o co gian khong nhng phu thuoc vao o doc cua ng cau ma con phu thuoc vao ty so gia gia ca va lng cau (P/Q). Cong thc lien he gia o co gian va o doc: 86 ED = Q P 1 P 1 P = = P Q P Q tg Q Q (3.2) Da vao cong thc (3.2) va o th (3.4) ta thay rang: o co gian ty le nghch vi gia tr o doc. Mot so trng hp minh hoa ve quan he gia o doc va o co gian cua ng cau: P o doc tg = ( P > Q ) P P0 P1 P >1 Q (D) Q 0 Q0 Q1 o th 3.5. ng cau t co gian. Mot s thay oi trong gia ( P) lam thay oi t hn trong lng cau ( Q) P o doc tg = ( P < Q ) P P0 P1 P <1 Q (D) Q 0 Q0 Q1 Q o th 3.6. ng cau co gian nhieu. Mot s thay oi trong gia ( P) lam thay oi nhieu hn trong lng cau ( Q). 87 P o doc tg = ( P = 0 ) P0 0 (D) P =0 Q Q o th 3.7. ng cau co gian hoan toan. Mot s thay oi nho trong gia ( P) lam thay oi rat ln (vo tan) lng cau ( Q). P (D) o doc tg = ( Q = 0 ) P = Q P0 Q Q0 o th 3.8. ng cau hoan toan khong co gian. Mot s thay oi du the nao trong gia ( P) cung khong lam thay oi lng cau ( Q). P o doc tg = P P0 P1 ( P = Q ) 45 (D) Q P =1 Q 0 Q0 Q1 Q o th 3.9. ng cau co gian mot n v. Mot s thay oi trong gia ( P) lam thay oi tng ng lng cau ( Q). 88 o co gian va doanh thu: Tuy thuoc vao o co gian cua cau so vi gia, s anh hng en doanh thu t s thay oi cua gia se khac nhau. V du: Khao sat cac so lieu n gian sau ay: Gia (P) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Lng Doanh Thu (R) 0 45 80 105 120 125 120 105 80 45 0 -9 -4 -2,333 -1,5 -1 -0.666 -0,428 -0,25 -0,111 Tr tuyet oi cua o co gian nho hn 1 ( ED < 1) giam gia, doanh thu giam Tr tuyet oi cua o co gian ln hn 1 ( ED > 1) giam gia, doanh thu tang o co gian (ED) (QD) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 (E D = 1) , doanh thu cc ai Bang 3.4. Quan he gia doanh thu va o co gian 3.3. D BAO LNG TIEU THU VI PHNG PHAP HOI QUY A BIEN 3.3.1. Khai quat Khoi lng tieu thu chu anh hng bi rat nhieu nhan to. o co the la: gia ca cua chnh hang hoa va dch vu (chnh gia), chi ph quang cao, gia ban cung mat hang cua oi thu canh tranh; gia hang co tnh thay the va gia ca hang hoa bo sung; la to chc ky thuat thng mai va phng thc tieu thu; la thu nhap bnh quan au ngi, chnh sach bao ho mau dch cua chnh phu hay cac hiep nh thng mai song phng va a phng; la s thay oi thi trang, th hieu, 89 tap quan, ton giao, gii tnh, le hoi, mua vu hay la nang ma thi tiet, cung nhieu yeu to rat kho nh lng khac ma cho du ve mat ly thuyet i chang na cung khong the nao nhan thc, giai thch, suy oan, c oan hay d bao het c. Trong pham vi muc nay, e n gian, khoi lng tieu thu c xet gii han trong moi quan he ch vi 2 nhan to: gia ban (X1) va chi ph quang cao (X2). Gia nh gia tr quan sat cua cac bien co la co nh (khong ngau nhien) va gia cac bien oc lap (X1, X2) khong co quan he tuyen tnh tuyet oi tc khong co hien tng cong tuyen hoan toan (a cong tuyen). Tc la, neu ca hai bien oc lap cung xuat hien va neu gia chung co moi quan he a cong tuyen, mo hnh d bao khi ay se tr nen khong the thc hien, khong the dung no e giai thch hay phan tch d bao c. Ve mat ly thuyet, khoi lng tieu thu co quan he nghch bien vi gia ban san pham. Va, khoi lng tieu thu co quan he thuan bien vi chi ph quang cao. Tat nhien quan he nh vay trc het phai hieu la chung a c an nh san bi cac ly thuyet kinh te. Nhng ly thuyet tuyet nhien khong tra li cu the c rang: thay oi bao nhieu, thay oi nh the nao? Khoi lng tieu thu thay oi bao nhieu phan tram t 1% thay oi trong gia ban, hay trong chi ph quang cao? Phan tch nh lng vi phng phap hoi quy la nham i tm cau tra li, e giai thch va e cung co, ho tr ngc lai cho ly thuyet. 3.3.2. nh dang phng trnh the hien moi quan he Phng trnh (mo hnh) hoi quy di dang tuyen tnh: Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + e Trong o: Y: Khoi lng tieu thu X1: Gia ban san pham 90 X2: Chi ph quang cao b0: so hang co nh tung o goc b1: mc tac ong en khoi lng khi gia ban thay oi 1 n v; b2: mc tac ong en khoi lng khi quang cao thay oi 1 n v; e: Sai so, the hien mc tac ong cua cac yeu to khac khong the biet hoac khong c a vao mo hnh Trong thc te, co nhieu phng phap khac nhau e tien hanh xac lap mo hnh hoi quy a bien. Co 2 phng phap c s dung pho bien nhat la phng phap t tren xuong (top down) va phng phap t di len (bottom up). Vi phng phap top down, trc tien xay dng mo hnh bao gom tat ca cac bien giai thch (bien oc lap) c tien oan la co tac ong en bien ket qua (bien phu thuoc). Tiep theo o, qua kiem nh va chuan oan se loai bo bt cac bien khong co tac ong hoac co tac ong yeu en mo hnh cho en khi at c mot mo hnh tot e co the s dung giai thch va d bao. Vi phng phap bottom up, viec xay dng mo hnh i t n gian en phc tap, t n bien en a bien cho en khi mo hnh con co the at tot hn sau moi lan them vao mot bien giai thch. 3.3.3. Thu thap d lieu va tnh toan nhng gia tr thong ke ac trng a. Thu thap d lieu e phan tch co y ngha, d lieu cua cac bien so trong trng hp nay phai co cung ky phat sinh, tc cung mot thi iem (d lieu cheo) va khong chu s tac ong khach quan ot bien gia cac ky thuoc pham vi va oi tng nghien cu hoi quy. Mot tap d lieu co nhieu iem nam ngoai (outliers) tc nhng ngoai le qua xa vi quy luat thong thng, ve mat nghien cu thong ke hoi quy dung e d bao la khong tot cho mo hnh. 91 iem nam ngoai se lam thay oi khong nho en o doc cua phng trnh do tac ong nu keo cua chung. Cac n gian nhat la loai bo chung e mo hnh tot hn. Lap 2 mo hnh: mot vi iem nam ngoai va mot th khong. Tat nhien chung ta khong phai bao gi cung bo qua cac iem nam ngoai mot cach phu nhan vo tnh ma khong tien hanh cac phan tch rieng oi vi chung. V oi khi, tuy vao muc ch nghien cu, chnh cac iem nam ngoai lai giai thch c nhieu ieu quan trong va thu v. V du: co so ieu quan sat ve tnh hnh thc hien khoi lng hang ban, n gia ban va chi ph quang cao c thu thap tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau: Khoi lng hang ban Ky (thang) 01/2005 02/2005 03/2005 04/2005 05/2005 06/2005 07/2005 08/2005 09/2005 10/2005 11/2005 12/2004 01/2006 02/2006 03/2006 04/2006 (san pham) Gia ban (1.000 ong) Chi ph quang cao (1.000 ong) Y 3011 4875 4220 2542 2967 3194 4340 3082 3449 3120 3616 3494 4129 3326 3742 4627 X1 51 47 54 59 59 62 42 52 58 48 50 45 44 48 49 42 X2 3361 4533 4401 3323 3515 3837 4179 3535 3910 3202 3795 3722 4108 3594 3885 4428 05/2006 3700 50 3905 Bang 3.5. Tap d lieu ve khoi lng tieu thu, gia ban, chi ph quang cao 92 b. Tnh cac gia tr thong ke ac trng Cac gia tr thong ke ac trng la c s au tien e xem xet khai quat, mo ta ve tap d lieu. Bao gom: gia tr trung bnh, sai so chuan, gia tr cc ai, gia tr cc tieu, trung v, yeu v, o nghieng (thien lech), o chop (o nhat quan), khoang (mien), phng sai, o lech chuan, so lan quan sat. Ap dung Microsoft Excel tnh trc tiep cac gia tr thong ke ac trng nay, chung ta s dung cu the chng trnh thong ke mo ta (Descriptive Statistics). S dung lenh: Trong Excel, sau khi chon vung d lieu can thong ke, ta chon: Tools/ Data Analysis/ Descriptive Statistics/ O.K/ Summary Statistics/O.K Ket qua thu thap c nh sau: KHOAN MUC Mean Standard Error Median Mode Standard Deviation Sample Variance Kurtosis Skewness Range Minimum Maximum Sum Count Y 3613,76 155,29 3494,00 #N/A 640,27 409940,07 -0,47 0,46 2333,00 2542,00 4875,00 61434,00 17 X1 50,59 1,48 50,00 59,00 6,08 37,01 -0,72 0,41 20,00 42,00 62,00 860,00 17 X2 3837,24 96,20 3837,00 #N/A 396,66 Giai thch Gia tr trung bnh Sai so chuan Trung v Yeu v o lech chuan 157336,07 Phng sai (mau) -0,78 0,23 1331,00 3202,00 4533,00 o chop o nghieng Khoang (mien) Gia tr toi thieu Gia tr toi a 65233,00 Tong cong gia tr 17 So quan sat Bang 3.6. Cac ai lng thong ke ac trng 93 3.3.4. Thc hien hoi quy Thng hay goi la chay hoi quy (t khi co may tnh va cac chng trnh phan mem tr giup), bc nay cung cap cho ta nhng gia tr cua cac thong so can tm e thiet lap phng trnh hoi quy va s dung e d bao: gia tr tung o goc (intercept), cac gia tr o doc (slope). Ngoai ra, cung chng trnh nay se cung cap nhng gia tr thong ke hoi quy khac dung e kiem nh chat lng mo hnh. Co bao nhieu bien oc lap (bien giai thch), chng trnh se cho ra bay nhieu thong so o doc. Lu y rang thong so tung o goc trong mo hnh hoi quy a bien thng khong co y ngha hoac co y ngha rat t e giai thch ve ban chat kinh te. Trong qua trnh hoi quy, no chu cung luc cac tac ong trai ngc nhau cua cac bien so oc lap. Dung chng trnh Regression co trong Microsoft Excel e thc hien hoi quy a bien: 94 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 0.99 0.97 0.97 112.86 17 Cac thong so thong ke hoi quy Mc o tng quan R bnh phng (he so xac nh) R bnh phng ieu chnh Sai so chuan So quan sat ANOVA (Analysis on variance: Phan tch phng sai) df Regression Residual Total 2 14 16 SS 6380728.97 178312.09 6559041.06 MS F Significance F 0.00 3190364.49 250.49 12736.58 Coefficients Intercept X Variable 1 X Variable 2 343.09 -34.79 1.31 Standard Error 457.12 5.01 0.08 t Stat 0.75 -6.94 17.05 P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 0.47 0.00 0.00 -637.34 -45.54 1.15 1323.51 -24.04 1.48 Bang 3.7. Bang ket qua hoi quy a bien c tnh bi Microsoft Excel Ngoai viec dung chng trnh Regression co trong Microsoft Excel e tnh hoi quy a boi, con co nhieu chng trnh phan mem khac co cac tnh nang tng t va tham ch con co nhieu chc nang hn na. Chang han nh chung ta co the dung phan mem Eviews 5.1 e thong ke va d bao so lieu mot cach rat de dang. V du: vi so lieu cho Bang 3.5, chung ta s dung phan mem Eviews 5.1 e thc hien hoi quy, cac bc thc hien nh sau: Bc 1: Khi ong chng trnh Eviews 5.1 va tao ca so mi: File/ New/ Workfile trong hop Workfile Structure type, chon Unstructured/Undated, sau o nhap vao hop Observations (so quan sat): 17 95 Hnh 3.1. Giao dien va nhap lieu ban au cua phan mem Eviews 5.1 Bc 2: Tien hanh nhap so lieu ban au vao chng trnh phan mem nay, chon Quick/ Empty Group (Edit Series), tao 3 bien nhap lieu gom Y, X1, X2 tng ng vi 3 cot d lieu. Sau o nhap so gom 17 quan sat cho 3 bien nay, hnh anh minh hoa nh sau: Hnh 3.2. Nhap lieu so lieu gom 17 quan sat cho 3 bien Y, X1, X2 96 Bc 3: Thc hien hoi quy cho bien Y theo hai bien con lai la bien X1 va X2, bang cach chon: Quick/ Estimate Equation sau o nhap vao lenh: Y C X1 X2, nhan enter ta c bang ket qua hoi quy, minh hoa bang hnh anh sau: Hnh 3.3. Nhap lech hoi quy bien Y theo bien X1 va X2 Hnh 3.4. Bang ket qua hoi quy tnh c 97 a. Kiem nh cac ly thuyet Cac thong so cua phng trnh va o tng quan cho bi bang ket qua hoi quy tren: R2 = 0,99 the hien mc o tng quan cao gia cac bien oc lap va bien ket qua; R2 = 0,97: he so xac n, the hien mc o cao ve kha nang giai thch cua cac bien oc lap en bien ket qua; Thong so o doc cua bien gia ca: X variable 1 = -34,79 <0, the hien phu hp vi ly thuyet ve quan he nghch bien vi bien phan tch: khoi lng tieu thu; Thong so o doc cua bien chi ph quang cao: X variable 2 = 1,31 > 0, phu hp vi ly thuyet ve quan he thuan bien vi bien phan tch: khoi lng tieu thu. b. Kiem nh mo hnh hoi quy V sao phai kiem nh mo hnh hoi quy? Nhng ket qua hoi quy cho thay co s phu hp vi ly thuyet ve quan he gia cac bien giai thch (X) va bien ket qua (Y). Tuy nhien, ket qua hoi quy tren c cho bi mot mo hnh c gia thiet luc ban au. e xem xet y ngha va gia tr cua mo hnh ta phai s dung nhng kiem nh thong ke ma gii han ay la kiem nh thong ke t (t-stat) Kiem nh mo hnh hoi quy trong pham vi gii han ay ch tien hanh xem xet cac gia thiet ve moi quan he tuyen tnh gia cac bien oc lap vi bien phu thuoc. Chung chu yeu lien quan ti o doc cua cac ng hoi quy hay lien quan ti phng sai hoac tch sai cua cac phan phoi xac suat. Trong thc te, thng s dung kiem nh t-stat e kiem nh cho thong so o doc (hn la cho thong so tung o goc). Kiem nh ve o doc nham xac nh co hay khong moi quan he gia bien oc lap va bien phu thuoc mot o tin cay nhat nh. 98 Theo mot nguyen tac khong c chng minh, neu t-value (gia tr tuyet oi cua t) cua cac bien oc lap ln hn 2 (hoac >1,96) ta co the ket luan la co moi quan he ve mat thong ke hay noi cach khac la co y ngha ve mat thong ke mc y ngha 5%. Nhng so quan sat n phai u ln th o chnh xac cang cao. Lu y rang, tieu chuan kiem nh gia tr thong ke se tuy thuoc vao o tin cay. Vi o tin cay cao hn hoac thap hn, luc o yeu cau gia tr t-stat cung se cao hn hay thap hn tng ng. Theo ket qua mo hnh hoi quy cho Bang 3.7, ta co: t stat = 6, 94 oi vi bien oc lap X1 (gia ban) t stat < 0 , the hien quan he nghch bien gia bien oc lap va bien ket qua. t stat = 17, 05 oi vi bien oc lap X2 (chi ph quang cao) t stat > 0 , the hien quan he thuan bien gia bien oc lap va bien ket qua. 3.3.5. D bao vi mo hnh hoi quy Theo ket qua hoi quy (Bang 3.7), ta co phng trnh hoi quy, bieu dien moi quan he gia bien ket qua va bien giai thch la: Y = 343,09 34,79X1 + 1,31X2 Giai thch cac thong so: Gia tr thong so b1 = -34,79, ch ra o doc cua ng hoi quy oi vi bien X1, mang y ngha la: trong khoang gia tr X1 (gia ban) t 42 (min) en 62 (max) khi X1 thay oi tang 1 n v th Y (khoi lng tieu thu) se giam i c lng mot cach trung bnh vao khoang 34,79 n v, vi X2 khong oi. Gia tr thong so b2 = 1,31 ch ra o doc cua ng hoi quy oi vi bien X2, mang y ngha la: trong khoang gia tr X2 (chi ph quang cao) t: 3202 (min) en 4533 (max) khi X2 thay oi tang 1 n v th Y (khoi lng tieu thu) se tang len c lng mot cach trung bnh vao khoang 1,31 n v, vi X1 khong oi. 99 Gia tr thong so b0 = 343,09 ch ra tung o goc cua ng hoi quy, mang y ngha la khoi lng tieu thu toi thieu khi ma X1 va X2 eu bang 0. Nhng cach giai thch nh vay la may moc va ap at; hn na, khong co gia X1, X2 nao trong tap d lieu tren ay bang 0 nh vay ca. Mac du theo v du nay, khoi lng tieu thu toi thieu co the c hieu theo kieu duy oan (guess wildly) la c tieu thu bang cach trao oi hang trc tiep hoac theo cach phi thng mai khac. Cac chnh sach co the ng dung t phng trnh hoi quy: Muon tang mc tieu thu mot lng nhat nh th can phai tang cng bao nhieu chi ph quang cao hay can phai ha gia ban en mc nao? Bang cach tang cng quang cao hay ha gia ban mot mc nhat nh nao o th khoi lng tieu thu d bao se tang len bao nhieu? Vi chnh sach nao: tang quang cao hay ha gia ban, se ay nhanh hn toc o tang trng khoi lng tieu thu? 100 CHNG 4 PHAN TCH LI NHUAN 4.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN LI NHUAN 4.1.1. Muc tieu cua doanh nghiep Bat ky mot to chc nao cung co muc tieu e hng ti; muc tieu se khac nhau gia cac to chc mang tnh chat khac nhau. Muc tieu cua nhng to chc phi li nhuan (Nonbusiness organizations) la nhng cong tac hanh chnh, xa hoi, la muc ch nhan ao khong mang tnh chat kinh doanh. Muc tieu cua doanh nghiep trong nen kinh te th trng noi en cung la li nhuan. Moi hoat ong cua doanh nghiep e xoay quanh muc tieu li nhuan, hng en li nhuan va tat ca v li nhuan. 4.1.2. Y ngha cua li nhuan Theo ly thuyet kinh te, li nhuan trong san xuat kinh doanh quyet nh qua trnh tai san xuat m rong xa hoi. Li nhuan c bo sung vao khoi lng t ban cho chu ky san xuat sau, cao hn trc. Y ngha xa hoi: m rong phat trien san xuat, tao cong an viec lam, tang thu nhap va tieu dung xa hoi, ay manh toc o tang trng kinh te. oi vi doanh nghiep: Li nhuan quyet nh s ton vong, khang nh kha nang canh tranh, ban lnh doanh nghiep trong mot nen kinh te ma von d ay bat trac va khac nghiet. V vay, tao ra li nhuan la chc nang duy nhat cua doanh nghiep. 4.1.3. Ch tieu thc hien Tong li nhuan: Dung phng phap so sanh TH/KH. 101 So tng oi: Li nhuan thc hien 100% Li nhuan ke hoach (4.1) So tuyet oi: Li nhuan TH Li nhuan KH Li nhuan bnh quan (suat li nhuan) Li nhuan bnh quan at c tren moi n v san pham tuy thuoc vao khoi lng san pham tieu thu do anh hng cua c cau chi ph. Trong thc te, ch tieu nay t c s dung do tnh ac trng khong cao. 4.1.4. Ch tieu quan he Ty le li nhuan so sanh vi doanh thu (ty suat li nhuan): Ty suat li nhuan = Li nhuan 100% Doanh thu (4.2) Y ngha: mc li nhuan tren 1 ong doanh thu; Ch tieu ty suat li nhuan con la mot ch tieu e xem xet mc trch lap quy khen thng, phuc li oi vi doanh nghiep nha nc khi duyet quyet toan tai chnh hang nam cua doanh nghiep. Ty le li nhuan so vi von: Cong thc tong quat: Ty suat li nhuan so vi von = Li nhuan 100% Von (4.3) Y ngha: mc li nhuan at uc tren 1 ong von. 4.2. LI NHUAN TRONG MOI QUAN HE VI DOANH THU VA CHI PH Ta co ang thc tong quat: Li nhuan = Doanh thu Chi ph Trong o: Doanh thu = Khoi lng x n gia ban Chi ph gom: 102 o Chi ph kha bien o Chi ph bat bien Phan tch li nhuan trong moi quan he vi doanh thu va chi ph khong ch giup doanh nghiep anh gia tong quat qua trnh kinh doanh, ket qua kinh doanh va cac nhan to a anh hng en tnh hnh thc hien li nhuan ma con la phng phap phan tch da tren nhng d lieu mang tnh d bao, phuc vu cho cac quyet nh quan tr trong lnh vc ieu hanh hien tai va hoach nh ke hoach tng lai. V du: Co tai lieu tai mot doanh nghiep sau: Tien thue nha: Thue may moc, thiet b: Khau hao tai san co nh: Chi ph quang cao: Lng quan ly (thi gian): Lng ban hang (san pham): Gia von hang ban: Chi ph van chuyen ban hang: Chi ph bao b ong goi: 2.500.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 20.000.000 2.000.000 4.000.000 Trong ky, doanh nghiep tieu thu c 10.000 san pham; gia ban: 5.000 ong cho mot san pham. Chi ph kha bien n v: 3.000/san pham. 103 Phan tch chung: Khoan muc Doanh thu (10.000 sp) Chi ph kha bien, gom: Gia von hang ban Van chuyen Bao b ong goi Lng ban hang Hieu suat gop Chi ph bat bien Li nhuan Tong so 50.000.000 30.000.000 20.000.000 2.000.000 4.000.000 4.000.000 20.000.000 17.500.000 2.500.000 n v 5.000 3.000 Ty trong 100% 60% 2.000 40% Bang 4.1. Bao cao thu nhap theo hieu so gop 4.2.1. Yeu to khoi lng san pham Vi gia ban khong oi, khoi lng tieu thu tang se lam tang li nhuan. V du: Khoi lng tieu thu tang 10%, cac chi ph kha bien tang theo ty le, chi ph bat bien gia nh khong oi, ta tnh c li nhuan nh sau: Doanh thu: Chi ph kha bien: 10.000sp x 110% x 5.000 = 55.000.000 55.000.000 x 60% = 33.000.000 (Hoac chi ph kha bien = 11.000sp x 3.000 = 33.000.000) Hieu so gop Chi ph bat bien Li nhuan = 22.000.000 = 17.500.000 = 4.500.000 Phan tch: 104 Khoi lng san pham tang 1.000sp (tang 10% so vi ke hoach) a lam cho li nhuan tang: 2.000.000 (tang 80% so vi ke hoach); Nhan to khoi lng la nhan to quan trong lam tang li nhuan. Mat khac, v sao li nhuan lai nhay cam vi khoi lng nh vay? Mot s bien oi nho cua khoi lng lai co kha nang lam nen bien oi ln trong li nhuan? Gia chung co moi quan he g khong? e giai thch ieu o, ngi ta s dung en mot ty le ac trng; o la ty le gia hieu so gop so vi li nhuan con goi bang khai niem: on bay kinh doanh hay on bay hoat ong (OL: Operating leverage) Cong thc: Lc on bay = Hieu so gop Li nhuan (4.4) Theo v du tren, ta co: Lc on bay = 20.000.000 =8 2.500.000 Y ngha he so lc on bay: Vi gia ban khong oi, khi doanh thu tang (giam) 1% se lam li nhuan tang (giam) 8 lan hn, hay noi cach khac: toc o tang (giam li nhuan cao gap 8 lan so vi toc o tang (giam) doanh thu. He so lc on bay cang ln, o nhay cam cua li nhuan oi vi khoi lng cang cao. Tuy nhien, chnh ieu o lai cha ng nhieu rui ro. He so lc don bay khong co n v tnh (giong nh o co gian) 4.2.2. Yeu to chi ph bat bien Doanh nghiep muon tang doanh thu 30% bang cach tang cng quang cao them : 3.000.000. Gia nh cac yeu to khac khong oi, hay xem xet quyet nh nay? 105 Ta co: Doanh thu: 50.000.000 + (50.000.000 x 30%) = 65.000.000 13.000 sp x 3.000 = 39.000.000 Chi ph kha bien: (hoac chi ph kha bien = 65.000.000 x 60% = 39.000.000) Hieu so gop: Chi ph bat bien: Li nhuan: 65.000.000 39.000.000 = 26.000.000 17.500.000 + 3.000.000 = 20.500.000 26.000.000 20.500.000 = 5.500.000 Nhan xet: Li nhuan tang them: 5.500.000 2.500.000 = 3.000.000 Quyet nh nen tang cng quang cao. 4.2.3. Yeu to chi ph kha bien Doanh nghiep muon tang li nhuan bang cach d nh giam chi ph bao b, ong goi xuong con: 2.000.000 va v vay khoi lng san pham tieu thu d kien se b giam xuong con 9.500 san pham ma thoi. Vi gia ban va cac chi ph con lai gia nh khong oi, hay xem xet quyet nh nay. Doanh thu: Chi ph kha bien: (hoac ty le chi ph kha bien = Hieu so gop: Chi ph bat bien Li nhuan: Mc tang li nhuan: 9.500 sp x 5.000 = 47.500.000 9.500 sp x 2.800 = 26.600.000 2.800 100% = 56% ; 5.000 47.500.000 26.600.000 = 20.900.000 = 17.500.000 20.900.000 17.500.000 = 3.400.000 3.400.000 2.500.000 = 900.000 Quyet nh: nen thc hien s thay oi nay. 4.2.4. Yeu to gia ban 106 Doanh nghiep muon tang li nhuan bang cach d nh tang gia ban len 5.200 ong cho mot san pham. Va v vay khoi lng tieu thu d kien ch at 9.000 san pham. Co nen hay khong? Doanh thu: Chi ph kha bien: 9.000 sp x 5.200 = 46.800.000 9.000 sp x 3.000 = 27.000.000 3.000 5.200 100% = 57, 6923% (hoac ty le chi ph kha bien = Chi ph kha bien = 46.800.000 x 57,6928% = 27.000.000) Hieu so gop: Chi ph bat bien Li nhuan: Mc giam li nhuan: 46.800.000 27.000.000 = 19.800.000 = 17.500.000 19.800.000 17.500.000 = 2.300.000 2.500.000 2.300.000 = 200.000 Quyet nh: khong nen, v li nhuan giam so vi ban au 4.2.5. Yeu to tong hp e tang doanh so, doanh nghiep d tnh giam gia 400 ong mot san pham va tang cng quang cao them 8.000.000. Vi bien phap o, doanh nghiep d kien khoi lng tieu thu se tang them 50%. Hay xem xet quyet nh nay? Cach th nhat: Doanh thu: Chi ph kha bien: 15.000 sp x 4.600 = 69.000.000 15.000 sp x 3.000 = 45.000.000 3.000 100% = 65,21739% ; 4.600 (hoac ty le chi ph kha bien = Chi ph kha bien = 69.000.000 x 65,21739% =45.000.000) Hieu so gop: Chi ph bat bien: Li nhuan: 69.000.000 45.000.000 = 24.000.000 17.500.000 + 8.000.000 = 25.500.000 24.000.000 25.500.000 = (1.500.000) 107 Quyet nh: khong nen v phng an tren lam lo 1.500.000, tc la giam li nhuan: 2.500.000 + 1.500.000 = 4.000.000 Cach th hai: Gia ban giam 400/san pham, con: 5.000 400 = 4.600/san pham Hieu so gop n v san pham giam theo, con: 4.600 3.000 = 1.600/san pham Hay noi cach khac: Gia ban giam 400 2.000 1.600 = 400. Tong hieu so gop d tnh (theo phng an mi): 10.000 sp x 150% x 1.600 = 2.400.000 Tong hieu so gop hien tai: Hieu so gop tang: 10.000 x 2.000 = 20.000.000 Hieu so gop n v giam tng ng: 24.000.000 20.000.000 = 4.000.000 = 8.000.000 Mc tang chi ph bat bien (do tang quang cao) Li nhuan giam: 8.000.000 4.000.000 = 4.000.000 4.3. PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN T HOAT ONG KINH DOANH 4.3.1. Phan tch li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh Ket qua hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh chnh phan anh ket qua hoat ong do chc nang kinh doanh chnh em lai, trong tng ky hach toan cua doanh nghiep, lam c s chu yeu e anh gia, phan tch hieu qua cac mat, cac lnh vc hoat ong, phan tch nguyen nhan va mc o anh hng cua cac nguyen nhan c ban en ket qua chung cua doanh nghiep. ong thi la so lieu quan trong e tnh va kiem tra so thue thu nhap doanh nghiep ma doanh nghiep phai nop va s 108 kiem tra, anh gia cua cac c quan quan ly ve chat lng hoat ong cua doanh nghiep. V du ta co so lieu rut ngan bang bao cao ket qua san xuat kinh doanh cua cong ty co phan BKBH di ay: n v tnh: trieu ong Chech lech nam Ch tieu Nam 2005 Nam 2004 2005/ nam 2004 Mc % % theo quy mo chung Nam 2005 100,61 0,61 Nam 2004 100,66 0,66 1. Doanh thu ban hang va cung cap dch vu 2. Cac khoan giam tr + Chiet khau thng mai + Hang ban tra lai 3. Doanh thu thuan ve ban hang va cung cap dch vu 4. Gia von hang ban 5. Li nhuan gop ve ban hang va cung cap dch vu 6. Doanh thu hoat ong tai chnh 7. Chi ph tai chnh 287.091 245.606 1.729 1.600 41.485 129 16,89 8,06 1.729 1.600 129 41.356 37.554 3.802 78 -292 -218 -1.589 1.775 8,06 16,95 20,99 5,84 55,32 -8,48 -6,58 -4,24 14,21 0,61 100,00 75,85 24,15 0,08 1,10 1,08 12,56 5,00 0,66 100,00 73,32 26,68 0,06 1,41 1,36 15,35 5,12 285.362 244.006 216.460 178.906 68.902 219 3.152 3.094 35.855 14.267 65.100 141 3.444 3.312 37.444 12.492 Trong o: Chi ph lai vay 8. Chi ph ban hang 9. Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep 10. Li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh 15.847 11.861 3.986 33,61 5,55 4,86 Bang 4.4. Bang phan tch chung li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh Phan tch chung: 109 Tong doanh thu so vi tong doanh thu thuan la 100,61% trong nam 2005 va la 100,66% trong nam 2004 (can c cot theo quy mo chung) chech lech tren 100% cua t le nay the hien cac khoan giam tr so vi doanh thu thuan, vay cac khoan giam tr cua nam 2005 so vi nam 2004 a co xu hng giam. Neu i sau xem xet cac khoan giam tr th nam 2005 va nam 2004 chu yeu la v gia tr hang ban b tra lai. Nh vay ta co the ket luan la chat lng cua san pham hang hoa cua cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005 so vi nam 2004 a c nang len, bieu hien thong qua mc giam tr v tra lai hang phan ln co lien quan en chat lng san pham cong ty. Tuy nhien, neu chung ta nhn vao ch tieu cac khoan giam tr th nam 2005 co gia tr hang b tra lai nhieu hn, gia tr hang ban b tra lai tang ve se tac ong khong tot en uy tn va li nhuan cua doanh nghiep. Mac du chat lng san pham c cai thien (nh phan tch theo quy mo chung), nhng trnh trang b tra lai hang van con dien ra, ieu o chng to doanh nghiep con phai cai thien nhieu trong viec nang cao chat lng san pham, quy cach, mau ma san pham, va ca chnh sach ban hang cua mnh. Can c vao cot chech lech nam 2005 so vi nam 2004: toc o tang cua doanh thu thuan la 16,95% tang cham hn toc o tang cua gia von hang ban 20,99%. ieu nay dan en toc o tang cua li nhuan gop nam 2005 so vi nam 2004 kha cham ch co 5,84%. Nhng do doanh thu t hoat ong tai chnh tang 55,32%, chi ph t hoat ong tai chnh giam -8,48% theo hng co li cho doanh nghiep, cung vi chi ph ban hang co ty trong ln a giam c -4,24% a lam cho toc o tang cua li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh chnh doanh nghiep tang en 33,61%. en ay cho phep ta ket luan la hieu qua kinh doanh cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 tot hn nhieu so vi nam 2004. Tuy nhien doanh nghiep can phai 110 kiem soat chat che hn na chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep, chi ph nay co ty trong kha ln ma tang nhieu trong nam 2005 ieu o cung tac ong lam han che mc tang li nhuan trong nam 2005. Tren cot % theo quy mo chung, doanh thu thuan c xac nh la quy mo chung, la 100%. Nhng muc khac tren bao cao c xac nh theo ket cau chiem trong quy mo chung o. Cach phan tch bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh theo quy mo chung la mot cong cu phan tch rat hu ch e cung cap thong tin co gia tr cao. Neu muon biet trong 100 ong doanh thu thuan thu c co bao nhieu ong chi ph, li nhuan gop va li nhuan thuan, th qua bang phan tch chung ta co the thay ngay c la nam 2005 co 75,85 ong va nam 2004 co 73,32 ong gia von hang ban. Li nhuan gop va li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh tuan t theo 2 nam la 24,15 ong va 5,55 ong trong nam 2005 vi 26,68 ong va 4,86 ong trong nam 2004. Nh vay trong 100 ong doanh thu, chech lech ve li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh cua nam 2005 so vi nam 2004 la +0,69 ong (5,55 4,86). Neu t le nay khong oi gia 2 nam th c 100 ong doanh thu tang len cua nam sau so vi nam 2004 doanh nghiep se co them 0,69 ong li nhuan thuan. Qua nhng ieu phan tch tren ta co the ket luan rang t le theo quy mo chung lam ro tnh hieu ve tnh hieu qua hay khong hieu qua cua hoat ong SXKD, do o ay la phng phay c ang gia la mot cong cu tot cua quan ly doanh nghiep. 4.3.2. Phan tch cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh Co cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep nh sau: Khoi lng tieu thu (Quantity of goods soldky hieu: Pq) Ket cau san pham tieu thu (Density of goods sold ky hieu: Pd) 111 Cac khoan giam tr (Reductional items ky hieu: Pr) Gia ban san pham (Price ky hieu: Pp) Gia von hang ban (Cost of goods sold ky hieu: Pc) Thu nhap t hoat ong tai chnh (Financial income ky hieu: Pf) Chi ph hoat ong (Operating cost ky hieu: PO) Trong o: Nhan to cac khoan giam tr bao gom: Chiet khau thng mai, giam gia hang ban, hang ban b tra lai, thue GTGT theo phng phap trc tiep, thue tieu thu ac biet, thue xuat khau. Nhan to thu nhap t hoat ong tai chnh = doanh thu t hoat ong tai chnh chi ph t hoat ong tai chnh. Nhan to ch ph hoat ong = chi ph ban hang + chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep. Nh vay cong thc xac nh ch tieu li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh (ky hieu: P) c viet nh sau: P = Pq + Pd + P r + Pp + Pc + P f + P O (4.6) Vi s bien ong cua li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh ( P ) se bang tong bien ong cua cac nhan to anh hng en no, ta co the tnh ( P ) theo cong thc sau: P = Pq + P d + P r + P p + Pc + P f + PO (4.7) Khi xac nh mc bien ong cua cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh, chung ta co the s dung dung phng phap thay the lien hoan e tnh, ket qua c chng minh qua cac cong thc rut gon nh sau: oi tng phan tch ( P ) : P = P1 P 0 112 Mc bien ong cua nhan to khoi lng san pham tieu thu ( Pq ) : Mc bien ong cua nhan to khoi lng = Li nhuan ke hoach x He so tang (giam) ty le khoi lng tieu thu (4.8) Trong o: He so tang (giam) ty le khoi lng tieu thu ( k) = Khoi lng tieu thu ky thc hien Khoi lng tieu thu ky ke hoach x 100% Nh vay cong thc (4.8) co the viet lai nh sau: Pq = P 0 k Mc bien ong cua nhan to ket cau san pham tieu thu ( Pd ) : Mc bien ong = nhan to ket cau Li nhuan TH theo gia KH (4.9) - Li nhuan ke hoach - Article I. nh hng cua nhan to Hay c viet lai theo cong thc: Pd = ( P 1( 0 ) P 0 ) Pq Mc bien ong cua nhan to cac khoan giam tr ( Pr ) : Mc anh hng cua nhan to cac khoan giam tr Article II. K hoi lng tieu thu thc hien CK giam tr thc hien (4.10) = x _ CK giam tr ke hoach Cong thc c viet lai nh sau: Pr = q1 ( r 1 r 0 ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia ban ( Pp ) : (4.11) 113 Mc anh hng Article III. K cua nhan to gia = hoi lng tieu ban san pham thu thc hien x n gia ban thc hien _ n gia ban ke hoach Viet lai theo cong thc tren: P p = q1 ( p1 p 0 ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia von ( Pc ) : Mc anh hng Article IV. K cua nhan to gia = hoi lng tieu von hang ban thu thc hien x n gia von thc hien _ (4.12) n gia von ke hoach Hay c viet lai theo cong thc: P c = q1 ( c1 c 0 ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to thu nhap hoat ong tai chnh ( Pf ) : Mc anh hng Article V. K cua nhan to TN = hoi lng tieu hoat ong TC thu thc hien TN t HTC _ n v ky TH (4.13) x TN t HTC n v ky KH Viet lai theo cong thc tren: P f = q1 ( f 1 f 0 ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to chi ph hoat ong ( PO ) : Mc anh hng Article VI. K cua nhan to chi = hoi lng tieu ph hoat ong thu thc hien x Chi ph H _ n v ky TH (4.14) Chi ph H n v ky KH Hay c viet lai theo cong thc: P O = q1 ( O1 O 0 ) (4.15) 114 Lu y: Trc khi tong hp mc o tac ong cua cac nhan to en oi tng phan tch, can chu y en cac nhan to bien ong ty le nghch vi li nhuan (tc la khi cac nhan to nay tang len se lam cho li nhuan giam xuong). Cac nhan to bien ong ty le nghch vi li nhuan phai c oi dau sau khi tnh bang cac cong thc tren. V du minh hoa: Co so lieu ve tnh hnh tieu thu hang hoa tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau: Ten san pham Khoi lng san pham hang hoa (san pham) KH A B C 300 500 350 TH 320 650 340 n gia ban (1.000) KH 100 50 20 TH 95 55 22 Giam gia hang ban (1.000/sp) KH 1 2 0,5 TH 1,5 2,5 0 Thu nhap t HTC (1.000/sp) KH 0 0,5 0,5 TH 0,5 1 2 Gia von n v (1.000) KH 50 30 10 TH 55 25 12 Chi ph hoat ong (1.000/sp) KH 3 4 2 TH 3,5 3,5 2 Hng dan: e qua trnh tnh toan li nhuan thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh dien ra nhanh chong va chnh xac, can thiet phai lap 03 bang tnh li nhuan nh sau: BANG PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN HKD KY KE HOACH n v tnh:1.000ong Cac San pham Doanh thu khoan giam tr A B C Tong cong 30.000 25.000 7.000 62.000 300 1.000 175 1.475 Gia von Thu nhap Chi ph hang ban t HTC hoat ong 15.000 15.000 3.500 33.500 0 250 175 425 900 2.000 700 3.600 Li nhuan thuan t HKD So tien 13.800 7.250 2.800 23.850 Ty le LN 46,00% 29,00% 40,00% 38,47% 115 BANG PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN HKD KY THC HIEN n v tnh:1.000ong Cac San pham Doanh thu khoan giam tr A B C Tong cong 30.400 35.750 7.480 73.630 480 1.625 0 2.105 Gia von Thu nhap Chi ph hang ban t HTC hoat ong 17.600 16.250 4.080 37.930 160 650 680 1.490 1.120 2.275 680 4.075 Li nhuan thuan t HKD So tien 11.360 16.250 3.400 31.010 Ty le LN 37,37% 45,45% 45,45% 42,12% BANG PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN HKD KY THC HIEN THEO GIA KE HOACH n v tnh:1.000ong Cac San pham Doanh thu khoan giam tr A B C Tong cong 32.000 32.500 6.800 71.300 320 1.300 170 1.790 Gia von Thu nhap Chi ph hang ban t HTC hoat ong 16.000 19.500 3.400 38.900 0 325 170 495 960 2.600 680 4.240 Li nhuan thuan t HKD So tien 14.720 9.425 2.720 26.865 Ty le LN 46,00% 29,00% 40,00% 37,68% oi tng phan tch ( P ) : P = P 1 P 0 = 31.010 23.850 = 7.160 ( ng ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to khoi lng san pham tieu thu ( Pq ) : 71.300 Pq = P 0 k = 23.850 100% = 3.577,50 (ng ) 62.000 Mc bien ong cua nhan to ket cau san pham tieu thu ( Pd ) : Pd = ( P1(0) P 0 ) Pq = ( 26.865 23.850 ) 3.577,50 = 562,5(ng ) 116 Mc bien ong cua nhan to cac khoan giam tr ( Pr ) : Pr = q1 ( r1 r 0 ) = 2.105 1.790 = 315 (ng ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia ban ( Pp ) : P p = q1 ( p1 p 0 ) = 73.630 71.300 = 2.330 (ng ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to gia von ( Pc ) : P c = q1 ( c1 c 0 ) = 37.930 38.900 = 970 (ng ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to thu nhap hoat ong tai chnh ( Pf ) : P f = q1 ( f 1 f 0 ) = 1.490 495 = 995 (ng ) Mc bien ong cua nhan to chi ph hoat ong ( PO ) : P O = q1 ( O1 O 0 ) = 4.075 4.240 = 165 (ng ) Tong hp cac nhan to tac ong en oi tng phan tch: P = 3.577,50 562,50 + ( 315) + 2.330 + 970 + 995 + 165 = 7.160 (ng) 117 CHNG 5 PHAN TCH TAI CHNH 5.1. KHAI QUAT VE BAO CAO TAI CHNH 5.1.1. Khai niem ve bao cao tai chnh Bao cao ke toan nh ky (bao cao tai chnh) bao gom nhng bao cao phan anh cac mat khac nhau trong hoat ong kinh te tai chnh cua doanh nghiep nham phuc vu yeu cau quan ly a dang cap o v mo lan vi mo. Bao cao ke toan nh ky c Nha nc quy nh thong nhat ve danh muc he thong cac ch tieu, phng phap tnh toan va xac lap tng ch tieu cu the. Nguon thong tin e thiet lap bao cao tai chnh c thu thap t au? Trong thc te, nguon thong tin thu thap c t hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep se la nguon cung cap d lieu au vao cho ke toan. Vi cong viec thu thap x ly va bang cac phng phap khoa hoc cua mnh, ke toan a phat hoa mot bc tranh tong the ve hoat ong san xuat kinh doanh cung nh tnh hnh tai chnh cua doanh nghiep vao thi iem cuoi ky ke toan. 5.1.2. Muc ch bao cao tai chnh Bao cao tai chnh dung e cung cap thong tin ve tnh hnh tai chnh, tnh hnh kinh doanh va cac luong tien cua doanh nghiep, ap ng yeu cau quan ly cua chu doanh nghiep, c quan Nha nc va nhu cau hu ch cua nhng ngi s dung trong viec a ra cac quyet nh kinh te. Bao cao tai chnh phai cung cap nhng thong tin cua mot doanh nghiep ve: Tai san; 118 - N phai tra va von chu s hu; Doanh thu, thu nhap khac, chi ph kinh doanh va chi ph khac; Lai, lo va phan chia ket qua kinh doanh; Thue va cac khoan phai nop Nha nc; Tai san khac co lien quan en n v ke toan; Cac luong tien. Ngoai cac thong tin nay, doanh nghiep con phai cung cap cac thong tin khac trong Bang thuyet minh bao cao tai chnh nham giai trnh them ve cac ch tieu a phan anh tren cac bao cao tai chnh tong hp va cac chnh sach ke toan a ap dung e ghi nhan cac nghiep vu kinh te phat sinh, lap va trnh bay bao cao tai chnh. 5.1.3. oi tng cua bao cao tai chnh He thong bao cao tai chnh theo quy nh hien nay co 4 loai: Bang can oi ke toan Bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh Bao cao lu chuyen tien te o Theo phng phap trc tiep o Theo phng phap gian tiep Bang thuyet minh bao cao tai chnh Khi lap va trnh bay bao cao tai chnh, doanh nghiep phai tuan thu cac yeu cau a c quy nh tai Chuan mc ke toan so 21 Trnh bay bao cao tai chnh nh sau: 119 - Ke toan trnh bay mot cac trung thc va hp ly tnh hnh tai chnh va kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep - Ke toan phai la chon va ap dung cac chnh sach ke toan phu hp vi quy nh cua tng chuan mc ke toan nham am bao cung cap thong tin thch hp vi nhu cau ra cac quyet nh kinh te cua ngi s dung va cung cap c cac thong tin ang tin cay, khi trnh bay trung thc, hp ly tnh hnh tai chnh, ket qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep; Phan anh ung ban chat kinh te cua cac giao dch va s kien khong ch n thuan phan anh hnh thc hp phap cua chung; Trnh bay khach quan, khong thien v; Tuan thu nguyen tac than trong; Trnh bay ay u tren moi kha canh trong yeu. Thong tin cua bao cao tai chnh la can c quan trong cho viec e ra cac quyet nh ve quan ly, ieu hanh hoat ong san xuat, kinh doanh, hoac au t vao doanh nghiep cua cac chu doanh nghiep, chu s hu, cac nha au t, cac chu n hien tai va tng lai cua doanh nghiep. e giai quyet cac van e tren ngoai bang can oi ke toan, bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh con phai co bao cao thuyet minh va phan tch so lieu ve tnh hnh tai san, chi tiet nh tai san co nh, tnh hnh ton kho, tnh hnh nguon von; cac yeu to doanh thu, chi ph va ket qua. Xuat phat t cac yeu cau can thiet tren, he thong bao cao tai chnh ban hanh theo quyet nh 15/2006/QBTC ngay 20/03/2006 do Bo Tai chnh ban hanh quy nh che o ke toan tai chnh nh ky bat buoc doanh nghiep phai lap va nop; kem theo cac van ban, thong t, chuan mc bo sung en thong t 20/2006/TT-BTC, thong t 21/2006/TT-BTC ngay 20/03/2006. Cac doanh nghiep phai lap bao cao tai chnh theo ky ke toan nam la nam dng lch hoac ky ke toan nam la 12 thang tron sau khi thong bao cho c quan 120 thue. Trng hp ac biet, doanh nghiep c phep thay oi ngay ket thuc ky ke toan toan nam dan en viec lap bao cao tai chnh cho mot ky ke toan nam au tien hay ky ke toan nam cuoi cung co the ngan hn hoac dai hn 12 thang nhng khong c vt qua 15 thang. Ky lap bao cao tai chnh gia nien o la moi quy cua nam tai chnh (khong bao gom quy IV). Cac doanh nghiep co the lap bao cao tai chnh theo ky ke toan khac (nh tuan, thang, 6 thang, 9 thang) theo yeu cau cua phap luat, cua cong ty me hoac chu s hu. Bang 5.1. Bang ke cac c quan nhan bao cao tai chnh Ni nhan bao cao Cac loai doanh nghiep C quan Thong ke C quan DN cap tren ang ky kinh doanh x x Ky lap bao cao Bo/S tai chnh C quan Thue Doanh nghiep Nha nc Doanh nghiep co von au t nc ngoai Cac loai doanh nghiep khac Quy, nam x x x Nam x x x x x Nam x x x x 5.1.4. Nguyen tac lap bao cao tai chnh a. Bang can oi ke toan Bang can oi ke toan phan anh cau thanh cua tng loai tai san va tng loai nguon von cac thi iem bao cao. ong thi cho thay s bien ong cua tng loai tai san tng loai nguon von gia cac thi ky. Phan tai san gom: 121 A: Tai san lu ong va au t ngan han B: Tai san co nh va au t dai han Phan nguon hnh thanh tai san gom: A: N phai tra (trach nhiem n) B: Nguon von chu s hu Ta co ang thc: TAI SAN = NGUON VON = NGUON HNH THANH TAI SAN Lay so lieu v du tai ty Cong co phan BKBH tai khu cong nghiep Bien Hoa ong Nai, vao thi iem lap 31/12/2005 nh sau: Bang 5.2. Bang can oi ke toan cong ty BKBH nam 2005 CONG TY CO PHAN BKBH KHU CONG NGHIEP BIEN HOA - ONG NAI MAU SO B 01- DN BANG CAN OI KE TOAN Ngay 31 thang 12 nam 2005 n v tnh: VN TAI SAN 1 A. TAI SAN NGAN HAN I. Tien va cac khoan tng ng tien 1. Tien 2. Cac khoan tng ng tien Ma so 2 100 110 111 112 Thuyet minh 3 SO AU NAM 3 91.310.598.011 7.529.033.775 SO CUOI KY 4 100.172.191.896 11.170.113.788 11.170.113.788 V.01 7.529.033.775 II. Cac khoan au t TC ngan han 1. au t ngan han 120 121 V.02 0 122 2. D phong giam gia au t ngan han (*) 129 III. Cac khoan phai thu 1. Phai thu cua khach hang 2. Tra trc cho ngi ban 3. Phai thu noi bo ngan han 4. Phai thu theo tien o ke hoach hp ong XD 5. Cac khoan phai thu khac 6. D phong cac khoan phai thu kho oi (*) 130 131 132 133 134 135 139 V.03 24.005.549.325 22.108.789.872 949.748.245 26.583.506.752 25.540.870.164 452.810.246 1.089.225.122 (142.213.914) 732.040.256 (142.213.914) IV. Hang ton kho 1. Hang ton kho 2. D phong giam gia hang ton kho (*) 140 141 149 V.04 58.485.823.029 58.485.823.029 61.231.246.530 61.566.390.183 (335.143.653) V. Tai san ngan han khac 1. Chi ph tra trc ngan han 2. Thue GTGT c khau tr 3. Thue va cac khoan khac phai thu Nha nc 4. Tai san ngan han khac 150 151 152 154 158 V.05 1.290.191.882 437.920.581 126.458.605 1.187.324.827 299.635.840 60.962.500 725.812.696 826.726.487 B. TAI SAN DAI HAN I- Cac khoan phai thu dai han 1. Phai thu dai han cua khach hang 2. Von kinh doanh n v trc thuoc 3. Phai thu dai han noi bo 4.Phai thu dai han khac 200 210 211 212 213 218 V.06 V.07 68.223.689.500 77.687.808.011 0 5. D phong phai thu dai han kho oi (*) 219 II. Tai san co nh 1. Tai san co nh hu hnh 220 221 V.08 64.780.218.934 63.390.053.816 71.262.466.516 63.063.651.743 123 - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 222 223 147.994.221.805 (84.604.167.989) V.09 155.971.514.719 (92.907.862.977) 2. Tai san co nh thue tai chnh - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 224 225 226 0 3. Tai san co nh vo hnh - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 227 228 229 230 V.10 188.540.376 256.080.000 (67.539.624) 256.080.000 256.080.000 0 7.942.734.773 0 4. Chi ph xay dng c ban d dang III. Bat ong san au t - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) V.11 V.12 1.201.624.742 240 241 242 IV. Cac khoan au t tai chnh dai han 250 1. au t vao Cong ty con 2. au t vao Cong ty LD, lien ket. 3. au t dai han khac 4. D phong giam gia chng khoan au t dai han (*) 251 252 258 259 V.13 3.719.715.000 3.719.715.000 V. Chi ph tra trc dai han 1. Chi ph tra trc dai han 2. Tai san thue thu nhap hoan lai 3. Tai san dai han khac 260 261 262 268 V.14 V.21 3.443.470.566 3.443.470.566 2.705.626.496 2.705.626.496 TONG CONG TAI SAN NGUON VON A. N PHAI TRA I. N NGAN HAN 1. Vay va n ngan han 270 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907 300 310 311 V.15 78.804.586.416 76.153.983.885 30.107.038.869 81.089.225.534 76.178.751.003 23.328.613.425 124 2. Phai tra ngi ban 3. Ngi mua tra tien trc 4. Thue va cac khoan phai nop Nha nc 5. Phai tra ngi lao ong 6. Chi ph phai tra 7. Phai tra noi bo 8. Phai tra theo tien o ke hoach hp ong xay dng 9. Cac khoan phai tra, phai nop ngan han khac 10. D phong phai tra ngan han 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 V.17 V.16 31.162.205.704 350.021.544 4.426.568.833 1.146.277.875 2.579.458.989 45.173.117.606 0 2.395.570.134 2.059.902.233 1.665.988.532 319 320 V.18 6.382.412.071 1.555.559.073 II. N dai han 1. Phai tra dai han ngi ban 2. Phai tra dai han noi bo 3. Phai tra dai han khac 4. Vay va n dai han 5. Thue thu nhap hoan lai phai tra 6. D phong tr cap mat viec lam 7. D phong phai tra dai han 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 V.20 V.21 V.19 2.650.602.531 4.910.474.531 2.650.602.531 2.910.474.531 2.000.000.000 B. NGUON VON CHU S HU I. Von chu s hu 1. Von au t cua chu s hu 2. Thang d von co phan 3. Von khac cua chu s hu 4. Co phieu ngan quy 5. Chenh lech anh gia lai tai san 6. Chenh lech ty gia hoi oai 400 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 V.22 80.729.701.095 80.468.244.095 84.312.185.344 96.770.774.373 96.553.769.887 56.000.000.000 27.382.833.351 (6.588.010.602) 0 0 125 7. Quy au t phat trien 8. Quy d phong tai chnh 9. Quy khac thuoc von chu s hu 10. Li nhuan cha phan phoi 11. Nguon von au t XDCB II. NGUON KINH PH VA QUY KHAC 417 418 419 420 421 1.967.555.390 494.325.540 1.967.555.390 494.325.540 282.188.423 10.709.055.606 430 431 432 433 V.23 261.457.000 261.457.000 217.004.486 217.004.486 1. Quy khen thng va phuc li 2. Nguon kinh ph 3.Nguon kinh ph a hnh thanh TSC TONG CONG NGUON VON 440 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907 Ngay 20 thang 01 nam 2006 Ngi lap bieu Ke toan trng Giam oc cong ty b. Bang bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh: Bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh phan anh tnh hnh va ket qua kinh doanh (lai, lo kinh doanh) cua tng mat hoat ong kinh doanh cua n v, ong thi phan anh tnh hnh thc hien ngha vu vi Nha nc cua n v nh thue va tnh hnh chap hanh Luat thue GTGT bao gom khau tr thue, hoan thue, mien giam thue. Cac yeu to c ban cua bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh: Doanh thu (Sales Revenue) Tr gia von hang ban (Cost of Goods Sold) Lai gop (Gross Margin / Gross Profit) Chi ph kinh doanh (Operating Expenses) o Chi ph ban hang (Selling Expenses) o Chi ph quan ly (General anh Administrative Expenses) 126 - Cong chi ph kinh doanh (Total Operating Expenses) Lai t hoat ong kinh doanh (Income from Operation) Li tc va chi ph khong kinh doanh (Non Operating Income and Expenses) - Lai (lo) trc thue li tc (Income before tax) Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (Income Tax Expenses) Lai rong sau thue (Net Income after tax) Ket cau cua bang bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh gom 3 phan: Phan 1: Lai lo trong kinh doanh c phan anh theo ky trc, cua ky nay va luy ke t au nam theo 3 ch tieu doanh thu, chi ph va li nhuan Phan 2: Tnh hnh thc hien ngha vu Nha nc Phan 3: Thue gia tr gia tang Mau bang bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh theo quy nh: Lay so lieu v du tai Cong ty co phan BKBH tai khu cong nghiep Bien Hoa ong Nai, vao thi iem lap 31/12/2005 nh sau: 127 Bang 5.3. Bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 CONG TY CO PHAN BKBH KHU CONG NGHIEP BIEN HOA - ONG NAI MAU SO B02 -DN BAO CAO KET QUA HOAT ONG KINH DOANH QUY IV NAM 2005 n v tnh: VN CH TIEU 1 1. Doanh thu ban hang va cung cap dch vu 2. Cac khoan giam tr + Chiet khau thng mai + Hang ban b tra lai 3. Doanh thu thuan ve ban hang va cung cap dch vu 4. Gia von hang ban 5. Li nhuan gop ve ban hang va cung cap dch vu 6. Doanh thu hoat ong tai chnh 7. Chi ph tai chnh 396.876.083 1.729.630.268 MA Thuyet SO 2 01 02 minh 4 QU IV/2005 5 LUY KE T AU NAM 6 IV.25 95.141.980.300 287.091.873.695 396.876.083 1.729.630.268 10 11 94.745.104.217 285.362.243.427 IV.27 72.145.029.140 216.460.252.898 22.600.075.077 IV.26 IV.28 58.394.105 771.600.047 68.901.990.529 219.830.271 3.152.731.691 3.094.576.449 35.855.698.472 14.267.201.071 20 21 22 23 24 25 Trong o: Chi ph lai vay 8. Chi ph ban hang 9. Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep 760.639.363 11.307.623.516 4.770.172.599 128 10. Li nhuan thuan t HKD 11. Thu nhap khac 12. Chi ph khac 13. Li nhuan khac 14. Tong li nhuan ke toan trc thue 15. Chi ph thue thu nhap DN hien hanh 16. Chi ph thue TNDN hoan lai 17. Li nhuan sau thue thu nhap DN 18. Lai c ban tren co phieu 30 31 32 5.809.073.021 379.740.834 53.264.187 326.476.647 6.135.549.668 IV.30 IV.30 1.366.932.219 15.846.189.567 560.108.100 390.346.920 169.761.180 16.015.950.746 3.731.895.140 40 50 51 52 60 70 4.768.617.449 12.284.055.606 2.194 Ngay 20 thang 01 nam 2006 Ngi lap bieu Ke toan trng Giam oc cong ty c. Bao cao lu chuyen tien te: Con goi la bao cao ngan lu hay bao cao lu kim, la bao cao tai chnh can thiet khong nhng oi vi nha quan tr hoac giam oc tai chnh ma con la moi quan tam cua nhieu oi tng en tnh hnh tai chnh cua doanh nghiep. Bao cao ngan lu the hien lu lng tien vao, lu lng tien ra cua doanh nghiep. Ket qua phan tch ngan lu cua doanh nghiep ieu phoi lng tien mat (tien mat tai quy, tien gi ngan hang, cac chng th co gia tr nh tien: co phieu, trai phieu, tn phieu,) mot cach can oi gia cac lnh vc: hoat ong kinh doanh, hoat ong au t va hoat ong tai chnh. Noi mot cac khac, bao cao ngan lu ch ra cac lnh vc nao tao ra nguon tien (sources), lnh vc nao s dung tien (uses), kha nang thanh toan, lng tien tha, thieu va thi iem can s dung e at hieu qua cao nhat, toi thieu hoa chi ph s dung von (minimization cost of capital). 129 Bao cao ngan lu c tong hp t 3 dong ngan lu rong, t 3 hoat ong cua doanh nghiep: Hoat ong kinh doanh: Hoat ong chnh cua doanh nghiep: san xuat, thng mai, dch vu, Hoat ong au t: Trang b, thay oi TSC, au t chng khoan, lien doanh, hun von, au t kinh doanh bat ong san, Hoat ong tai chnh: Nhng hoat ong lam thay oi c cau tai chnh: thay oi trong von chu s hu, n vay, phat hanh trai phieu, phat hanh va mua lai co phieu, tra co tc, Mau bao cao lu chuyen tien te theo mau quy nh: Bang 5.4. Bang bao cao lu chuyen tien te cong ty BKBH nam 2005 CONG TY CO PHAN BKBH KHU CONG NGHIEP BIEN HOA - ONG NAI Mau B 03 - DN BAO CAO LU CHUYEN TIEN TE (Theo phng phap gian tiep) Nam 2005 n v tnh: VN CH TIEU I. LU CHUYEN TIEN T HOAT ONG KINH DOANH 1. Li nhuan trc thue 2. ieu chnh cho cac khoan - Khau hao tai san co nh - Cac khoan d phong - Lai, lo chenh lech ty gia hoi oai cha thc hien - Lai, lo t hoat ong au t 02 03 04 05 8.270.584.159 335.143.653 Ma so Thuyet minh Nam nay 01 16.015.950.746 130 -Chi ph lai vay 06 3.094.576.449 3. Li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh trc thay oi von lu ong - Tang, giam cac khoan phai thu - Tang, giam hang ton kho - Tang, giam cac khoan phai tra (khong ke lai vay phai tra, thue thu nhap phai nop) - Tang, giam chi ph tra trc - Tien lai vay a tra - Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep a nop - Tien thu khac t hoat ong kinh doanh - Tien chi khac t hoat ong kinh doanh 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 27.716.255.007 (3.068.290.163) (2.745.423.501) 5.481.298.172 876.128.812 (3.094.576.449) (5.143.423.080) 440.892.190 (3.800.000) Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh II. LU CHUYEN TIEN T HOAT ONG AU T 1.Tien chi e mua sam, xay dng tai san co nh va cac tai san dai han khac 2. Tien thu t thanh ly, nhng ban tai san co nh va cac tai san dai han khac 3. Tien chi cho vay, mua cac cong cu n cua n v khac 4. Tien thu hoi cho vay, ban lai cac cong cu n cua n v khac 5. Tien chi au t gop von vao n v khac 6. Tien thu hoi au t gop von vao n v khac 7. Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li nhuan c chia 20 20.459.060.988 21 (6.741.110.031) 22 23 24 25 26 27 (2.774.715.000) Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong au t III. LU CHUYEN TIEN T HOAT ONG TAI CHNH 1. Tien thu t phat hanh co phieu, nhan von gop cua chu s hu, co phieu ngan quy 30 (9.515.825.031) 31 - 131 2. Tien chi tra von gop cho cac chu s hu, mua lai co phieu cua doanh nghiep a phat hanh 3. Tien vay ngan han, dai han nhan c 4. Tien chi tra n goc vay 5. Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh 6. Co tc, li nhuan a tra cho chu s hu 32 33 34 35 36 (945.000.000) 75.977.912.342 (80.756.337.786) (1.578.730.500) Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong tai chnh Lu chuyen tien thuan trong ky Tien va tng ng tien au ky - Anh hng cua thay oi ty gia hoi oai quy oi ngoai te 40 50 60 61 (7.302.155.944) 3.641.080.013 7.529.033.775 Tien va tng ng tien cuoi ky 70 11.170.113.788 Ngay 20 thang 01 nam 2006 Ngi lap bieu Ke toan trng Giam oc cong ty 5.2. PHAN TCH CAC TY SO TAI CHNH 5.2.1. Muc ch phan tch cac ty so tai chnh Phan tch bao cao tai chnh ap ng nhu cau s dung thong tin cua nhieu oi tng quan tam en nhng kha canh khac nhau ve tai chnh e phuc vu cho cac muc ch cua mnh. Cac nha phan tch tai chnh tnh toan mot vai ch so tai chnh chu yeu e o lng thanh qua cua cong ty. Cac ch so tai chnh nay co the giup chung ta a ra nhng cau hoi ung, gia du, giam oc tai chnh co the d kien mot vai cau hoi ve ch so n cua cong ty va phan li nhuan giam do lai vay. Tng t, cac ch so tai chnh co the canh giac giam oc ve cac lnh vc kho khan tiem an. Neu mot chi nhanh co ty suat sinh li tren von thap chung ta co the oan chac rang giam oc se yeu cau chi nhanh nay phai giai thch. 132 Cac cong ty ang tang trng can au t vao von luan chuyen, nha xng va thiet b, au t cho phat trien san pham, tat ca eu can tien mat. V the, chung ta se giai thch lam the nao cac cong ty s dung cac mo hnh ke hoach tai chnh e giup hohieu nhng tiem an tai chnh trong cac ke hoach kinh doanh va e khao sat cac ket qua cua chien lc tai chnh. 5.2.2. Cac ty so tai chnh Hau het cac ty so tai chnh e co nhng cai ten mo ta cho ngi s dung nhan biet c lam the nao e tnh toan cac ty so ay hoac lam the nao e co the hieu c lng gia tr cua no. Cac loai ty so tai chnh quan trong nhat la: Ty so thanh toan o lng kha nang thanh toan cua cong ty. Ty so hoat ong o lng mc o hoat ong lien quan en tai san. Ty so on bay cho thay viec s dung n cua cong ty co anh hng nh the nao en hieu qua hoat ong kinh doanh. Ty so sinh li bieu hien kha nang tao lai cua tai san va von chu s hu. Ty so gia th trng cho thay cong ty c cac nha thau anh gia nh the nao. Chung ta se phan tch cac ty so tren va s dung so lieu tren bang can oi ke toan va bang bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh cua Cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005 e tnh toan. a. Ty so thanh toan Liquidity Raitos Ty so thanh toan hien hanh Current ratio: Mot trong nhng thc o kha nang thanh toan cua mot cong ty s dung rong rai nhat la kha nang thanh toan hien hanh: 133 Ty so thanh toan hien hanh (Rc) = Tai san lu ong N ngan han Tai san lu ong bao gom cac khoan von bang tien, au t tai chnh ngan han (bao gom chng khoan th trng), cac khoan phai thu, hang ton kho va tai san lu ong khac. N ngan han la cac khoan n phai tra trong nam bao gom: vay ngan han, vay dai han en han tra va cac khoan phai tra khac. Ty so Rc cho thay cong ty co bao nhieu tai san co the chuyen oi thanh tien mat e am bao thanh toan cac khoan n ngan han. Ty so nay o lng kha nang tra n cua cong ty. Ty so thanh toan hien hanh cua cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005 la: Rc = 100.172.191.896 76.178.751.003 Rc = 1,31 cho thay nam 2004 cong ty BKBH co 1,31 ong tai san lu ong am bao cho 1 ong n en han tra. Ty so nay c chap nhan hay khong tuy thuoc vao s so sanh vi ty so thanh toan cua cac cong ty canh tranh hoac so sanh vi cac nam trc e thay s tien bo hoac giam sut. Neu ty so hien hanh giam cho thay kha nang thanh toan giam va cung la dau hieu bao trc nhng kho khan tai chnh se xay ra. Neu ty so hien hanh cao ieu o co ngha la cong ty luon san sang thanh toan cac khoan n. Tuy nhien, neu ty so thanh toan hien hanh qua cao se lam giam hieu qua hoat ong v cong ty a au t qua nhieu vao tai san lu ong hay noi cach khac viec quan ly tai san lu ong khong hieu qua (v du: co qua nhieu = 1,31 134 tien mat nhan roi, n phai oi, hang ton kho ong). Mot cong ty neu d tr nhieu hang ton kho th se co ty so thanh toan hien hanh cao, ma ta a biet hang ton kho la tai san kho hoan chuyen thanh tien, nhat la hang ton kho ong, kem pham chat. V the, trong nhieu trng hp, ty so thanh toan hien hanh khong phan anh chnh xac kha nang thanh toan cua cong ty. Ty so thanh toan nhanh Quick ratio: Ty so thanh toan nhanh c tnh toan da tren nhng tai san lu ong co the nhanh chong chuyen oi thanh tien, oi khi chung c goi la tai san co tnh thanh khoan, tai san co tnh thanh khoan bao gom tat ca tai san lu ong tr hanh ton kho. Ty so thanh toan nhanh (Rq) = Tai san lu ong hang ton kho N ngan han Rq = 100.172.191.896 - 61.231.246.530 76.178.751.003 = 0,51 Ty so nay cho thay kha nang thanh toan thc s cua mot cong ty. Ty so thanh toan nhanh cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 la 0,51 co ngha la cong ty co 51% tai san co tnh thanh khoan cho moi ong n en han. Ty so thanh toan nhanh 0,51 con cho biet rang neu hang ton kho cua cong ty ong, khong ang gia th cong ty se lam vao kho khan tai chnh goi la khong co kha nang chi tra. Khong co kha nang chi tra xay ra khi mot cong ty khong u ieu tien e tra cac khoan n khi chung en han. 135 b. Ty so hoat ong Activity Raitos Ty so hoat ong o lng hoat ong kinh doanh cua mot cong ty. e nang cao ty so hoat ong , cac nha quan tr phai biet la nhng tai san cha dung hoac khong dung khong tao ra thu nhap v the cong ty can phai biet cach s dung chung co hieu qua hoac loai bo chung i. Ty so hoat ong oi khi con goi la ty so hieu qua hoac ty so luan chuyen. So vong quay cac khoan phai thu Accounts receivable turnover ratio: Cac khoan phai thu la nhng hoa n ban hang cha thu tien ve do cong ty thc hien chnh sach ban chu va cac khoan tam ng cha thanh toan, khoan tra trc cho ngi ban So vong quay cac khoan phai thu c s dung e xem xet can than viec thanh toan cac khoan phai thu Khi khach hang thanh toan tat ca cac hoa n cua ho, luc o cac khoan phai thu quay c mot vong. Vong quay cac khoan phai thu = Doanh thu thuan Cac khoan phai thu So vong quay cac khoan phai thu cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 285.362.243.427 = 26.583.506.752 = 10,73 Ty so tren cho thay nam 2005 cac khoan phai thu luan chuyen 10,73 lan. ieu nay co ngha la bnh quan 360/10,73 = 33,5 ngay cong ty mi thu hoi c n. Ty so nay co the c thc hien dang khac o la ty so ky thu tien bnh quan (average collection period). 136 Ky thu tien bnh quan = Cac khoan phai thu Doanh thu bnh quan ngay 26.583.506.752 = 285.362.243.427/360 So vong quay cac khoan phai thu hoac ky thu tien bnh quan cao hay thap phu thuoc vao chnh sach ban chu cua cong ty. Neu so vong quay thay th hieu qua s dung von kem do von b chiem dung nhieu. Nhng neu so vong quay cac khoan phai thu qua cao th se lam giam sc canh tranh dan en giam doanh thu. Khi phan tch ch so nay, ngoai viec so sanh gia cac nam, so sanh vi cac cong ty cung nganh, cong ty can xem xet ky lng tng khoan phai thu e phat hien nhng khoan n a qua han tra va co bien phap x ly. 33,5 ngay So vong quay hang ton kho Inventory turnover ratio: So vong quay hang ton kho la mot tieu chuan anh gia cong ty s dung hang ton kho cua mnh hieu qua nh the nao. Vong quay hang ton kho = Doanh thu thuan Hang ton kho So vong quay hang ton kho cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 285.362.243.427 = 61.231.246.530 = 4,66 137 Tnh toan tren cho thay rang trong nam 2005 hang ton kho cua cong ty BKBH luan chuyen 4,66 vong co ngha la khoang 77,25 ngay mot vong. So vong luan chuyen hang ton kho cao hay thap tuy thuoc vao ac iem nganh kinh doanh. Neu cong ty BKBH la nha may san xuat ru vang vi so vong luan chuyen hang ton kho 4,66 vong/nam cho thay cong ty a san xuat san pham qua nhanh en noi ru cha thch hp e uong. Ngc lai, neu cong ty kinh doanh rau qua ti vi hang hoa khoang 77,25 ngay quay vong mot lan th co le hang hoa cha kp ban a b h hong. Hieu suat s dung tai san co nh Sales-to-Fixed assets ratio: Ty so nay noi len 1 ong tai san co nh tao ra bao nhieu ong doanh thu. Qua o anh gia hieu qua s dung tai san co nh cong ty. Hieu suat s dung TSC = Doanh thu thuan Tai san co nh Hieu suat s dung TSC cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 285.362.243.427 = 71.262.466.516 = 4,004 Ty so tren cho thay tai cong ty BKBH 1 ong tai san co nh a tao ra c 4,004 ong doanh thu. Muon anh gia viec s dung tai san co nh co hieu qua khong phai so sanh vi cac cong ty khac cung nganh hoac so sanh vi cac thi ky trc. Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai san Sale-to-total assets ratio: Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai san o lng 1 ong tai san tham gia vao qua trnh san xuat kinh doanh se tao ra bao nhieu ong doanh thu. 138 Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai san = Doanh thu thuan Toan bo tai san Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai san cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 = 285.362.243.427 = 177.859.999.907 1,604 ieu nay co ngha la, tai cong ty BKBH trong nam 2005 1 ong tai san a tao ra c 1,604 ong doanh thu. Neu ty so nay cao cho thay cong ty ang hoat ong gan het cong suat va rat kho e m rong hoat ong neu khong au t them von. Hieu suat s dung von co phan Sales-to-equity ratio: Hieu suat s dung von co phan la ch tieu rat hu ch trong viec phan tch kha canh tai chnh cua cong ty. Hieu suat s dung von co phan o lng moi quan he gia doanh thu va von co phan. Hieu suat s dung von co phan = Doanh thu thuan Von co phan Hieu suat s dung von co phan cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 285.362.243.427 = 96.770.774.373 = 2,95 Viec tnh toan tren cho thay rang cong ty BKBH co doanh thu 2,95 lan ln hn von co phan trong nam 2005. Ly do ma hieu suat s dung von co phan cua cong ty ln hn tong tai san cua cong ty v cong ty a s dung on bay tai chnh t viec tai tr bang von vay. 139 Hiesuat s dung von co phan = Doanh thu thuan Von co phan = Doanh thu thuan Tong tai san x Tong tai san Von co phan = Hieu suat s dung tong tai san x Boi so tai san so von co phan 177.859.999.907 = 1,604 x 96.770.774.373 = 2,95 c. Ty so on bay tai chnh Financial leverage ratios Ty so on bay tai chnh anh gia mc o ma mot cong ty tai tr cho hoat ong kinh doanh cua mnh bang von vay. Khi mot cong ty vay tien, cong ty luon phai thc hien mot chuoi thanh toan co nh. V cac co ong ch nhan c nhng g con lai sau khi chi tra cho chu n, n vay c xem la tao ra on bay. Trong thi ky kho khan, cac cong ty co on bay tai chnh cao co kha nang khong tra c n. V the khi cong ty muon vay tien, ngan hang se anh gia xem cong ty co vay qua nhieu hay khong? Ngan hang cung xet xem cong ty co duy tr n vay cua mnh trong han mc cho phep khong? Cac nha cung cap tn dung can c vao ty so on bay tai chnh e an nh mc lai suat cho vay oi vi cong ty (v cong ty cang co nhieu n vay, rui ro ve mat tai chnh cang ln). cac nc phat trien, ngi ta anh gia c o rui ro nay va tnh vao lai suat cho vay. ieu o co ngha la cong ty cang vay nhieu th lai suat cang cao. oi vi cong ty, ty so on bay tai chnh se giup nha quan tr tai chnh la chon cau truc von hp ly nhat cho cong ty mnh. Qua ty so on bay tai chnh nha 140 au t thay c rui ro ve tai chnh cua cong ty t o dan en quyet nh au t cua mnh. Cac ty so on bay thong thng la: Ty so n tren tai san Dept ratio: Ty so nay cho thay bao nhieu phan tram tai san cua cong ty c tai tr bang von vay. Ty so n = Tong n Tong tai san Tong n: bao gom toan bo khoan n ngan han va dai han tai thi iem lap bao cao tai chnh gom: cac khoan phai tra, vay ngan han, n dai han do i vay hay phat hanh trai phieu dai han. Tong tai san: toan bo tai san cua cong ty tai thi iem lap bao cao. Ty so n tren tai san cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 81.089.225.534 = 177.859.999.907 = 0,456 45,6% ieu nay cho thay 45,60% tai san cua cong ty BKBH c tai tr bang nguon von vay. Lu y rang ty so nay s dung gia so sach ch khong phai gia th trng. Gia th trng cua cong ty cuoi cung xac nh cac chu n co thu hoi c tien cua ho khong? V the, cac nha phan tch phai xem menh gia cua cac khoan n nh mot phan cua tong gia th trng cua n va von co phan. Ly do chnh e cac ke toan vien lam nh the la bi v gia th trng khong co san. Co phai nh the khong? Co le la khong. Gia th trng bao gom gia tr tai san co nh vo hnh the hien trong chi ph nghien cu va phat trien, quang cao, Nhng tai san nay thong thng khong san sang e ban va neu cong ty ri vao tnh canh kho khan ve tai chnh th tat ca gia tr nay se bien mat. 141 Co the v mot ly do nao o viec cac ke toan vien bo qua tai san co nh vo hnh lai tot cho cong ty nh khi ngi cho vay yeu cau ngi i vay khong c phep dung ty so n theo so sach e tang cac han mc vay. Ty so n tren von co phan Debt-to-equity ratio: Ty so n tren von co phan = Tong n Von co phan Ty so n tren von co phan cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 81.089.225.534 = 96.770.774.373 = 0,838 83,8% Tnh toan tren cho thay rang trong nam 2005 cac nha cho vay a tai tr t hn von co phan 16,20% (100% - 83,80%). ieu nay dng nh cong ty a s dung mot lng von vay con khiem ton, trong khi chiem ty trong ln la cac khoan von vay tn dung thng mai phi lai suat va nhng khoan phai tra ngan han. V vay e thay mc o tai tr bang von vay mot cach thng xuyen (qua o thay c rui ro ve mat tai chnh ma cong ty phai chu), ngi ta dung ty so n dai han tren von co phan). Ty so n dai han tren von co phan = N dai han Von co phan Ty so n dai han tren von co phan cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 4.910.474.531 = 96.770.774.373 = 0,050 5,0% 142 V ty so n dai han tren von co phan co gia tr nho hn ty so n tren von co phan ieu nay co ngha la phan ln n cua cong ty BKBH la n ngan han. Mac du vay nhng ngi cho vay dai han a cung cap cho cong ty BKBH 5,0% ngan quy so vi co ong. Ty so tong tai san tren von co phan Equity multiplier ratio: Mot ty so khac cung c s dung e tnh toan mc o i vay (rui ro tai chnh) ma cong ty ang ganh chu o la ty so tong tai san tren von co phan. Ty so tai san tren von co phan = Toan bo tai san Von co phan Ty so tai san tren von co phan cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 177.859.999.907 = 96.770.774.373 = 1,838 183,8% Ty so nay cho thay trong nam 2005 cong ty a co c tong tai san gap 1,838 lan so vi von co phan. ieu nay cung cho thay tnh hnh vay n cua cong ty. Lai vay t nhng khoan n dai han nh vay se lam gia tang nhng rui ro ve tai chnh neu li nhuan cua cong ty lam ra khong u tra lai vay. Kha nang thanh toan lai vay Times interest earned ratio: Lai vay hang nam la chi ph tai chnh co nh va chung ta muon biet cong ty san sang tra lai en mc nao. Cu the hn chung ta muon biet rang lieu so von i vay co the s dung tot en mc nao, co the em lai khoan li nhuan bao nhieu va u bu ap lai vay hay khong. Ty so nay dung e o mc o ma li nhuan phat sinh do s dung von e am bao tra lai vay hang nam nh the nao. Neu cong ty qua yeu ve mat nay, cac chu n co the i en kien tung va tuyen bo pha san. 143 Kha nang thanh toan lai vay = Li nhuan trc thue va lai vay Lai vay Trong cong thc tren, phan t so phan anh so tien ma cong ty co the c s dung e tra lai vay trong nam. ay phai lay tong so li nhuan trc thue va lai vay v lai vay c tnh vao chi ph trc khi tnh thue thu nhap. Phan mau so la lai vay, bao gom tien lai tra cho cac khoan vay ngan va dai han ke ca lai do phat hanh trai phieu. Kha nang thanh toan lai vay cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 = 3.094.576.449 16.015.950.746 + 3.094.576.449 = 6,175 d. Ty so sinh li Profitability ratios Ty so sinh li o lng thu nhap cua cong ty vi cac nhan to khac tao ra li nhuan nh doanh thu, tong tai san von co phan. Loai ty so nay bao gom cac ch tieu sau: Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu Net profit margin ratio: Ch tieu nay noi len 1 ong doanh thu tao ra c bao nhieu ong li nhuan. Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu = Li nhuan rong Doanh thu thuan Ty so sinh li tren doanh thu cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 12.284.055.606 = 285.362.243.427 = 0,043 4,3% 144 cong ty BKBH nam 2005 co c 100 ong doanh thu mi tao c 4,3 ong li nhuan rong (li nhuan sau thue thu nhap doanh nghiep). Ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san Ruturn on total assets ratio (ROA): Ch tieu nay o lng kha nang sinh li tren 1 ong von au t vao cong ty. Ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san = Li nhuan rong Toan bo tai san Ty so sinh li tren tong tai san cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 12.284.055.606 = 177.859.999.907 = 0,069 6,9% Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan Return on equity ratio (ROE): ay la ch tieu ma nha au t rat quan tam v no cho thay kha nang tao lai cua 1 ong von ho bo ra e au t vao cong ty. Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan = Li nhuan rong Von co phan Ty so sinh li tren von co phan cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 12.284.055.606 = 96.770.774.373 = 0,1269 12,69% S khac nhau gia ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san va ty suat sinh li tren von co phan cho thay cong ty a s dung von vay co hieu qua nen a khuech ai c ty suat sinh li tren von co phan cao hn ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san. 145 e. Ty so gia th trng Market-value ratios Cac nha au t co phan ac biet quan tam en vai gia tr ma co anh hng manh en gia th trng cua co phan nh: Thu nhap moi co phan Earning per share (EPS): Thu nhap moi co phan la mot yeu to quan trong nhat, quyet nh gia tr cua co phan bi v no o lng sc thu nhap cha ng trong mot co phan hay noi cac khac no the hieu thu nhap nha au t co c do mua co phan. Thu nhap moi co phan = Thu nhap rong cua co ong thng So lng co phan thng Thu nhap rong cua co ong thng c tnh bang cach lay lai rong tr i tien lai cua co phan u ai. Tai cong ty BKBH ta co so lieu bo sung nh sau: so lng co phieu c niem yet la 5.600.000 co phieu va toan bo eu la co phieu thng. Tong co tc chi tra nam 2005 la 6.615.000.000 ong, vi gia th trng trong nam 2005 la 16.100 ong/co phieu, ta tnh c cac ch tieu: Thu nhap moi co phan cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 12.284.055.606 = 5.600.000 = 2.194 ong Ty suat chi tra co tc Payout ratio: Ty le chi tra co tc Trong o: Co tc moi co phan = Tong co tc = Co tc moi co phan Thu nhap moi co phan 146 So lng co phan thng Ch tieu chi tra co tc noi len cong ty chi tra phan ln thu nhap cho co ong hay gi lai e tai au t. ay la mot nhan to quyet nh en gia tr th trng cua co phan. Co tc moi co phan cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 6.615.000.000 = 5.600.000 = 1.181,25 ong Ty le chi tra co tc cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 1.181,25 = 2.194 = 0,5384 53,84% T o ta tnh c ty le li nhuan gia lai = 100% - 53,84% = 46,16% Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap Price-earning ratio (P/E) Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap = Gia tr th trng moi co phan Thu nhap moi co phan ay cung la ch tieu ma nha au t rat quan tam v no the hien gia co phan at hay re so vi thu nhap. Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 16.100 = 2.194 = 7,338 lan ieu nay co ngha la gia co phan cua cong ty BKBH c ban gap 7,338 lan vi thu nhap hien hanh cua no. 147 Ty suat co tc Dividend yield Ty suat co tc = Co tc moi co phan Gia tr th trng moi co phan Ty suat co tc cua cong ty BKBH nam 2005 1.181,25 = 16.100 = 0,0733 7,33% ieu nay co ngha la co tc cua cong ty BKBH chiem 7,33% so vi gia th trng cua co phan. Nh ta a biet, thu nhap cua nha au t gom hai phan: co tc va chenh lech gia do chuyen nhng co phan. Neu ty suat co tc cua mot co phan thap ieu o cha han la xau bi v nha au t co the chap nhan ty le chi tra co tc thap e danh phan ln li nhuan e tai au t. Ho mong i mot tang trng nhanh trong co tc va hng c s chenh lech ln cua gia co phan. 5.2.3. Phng phap anh gia cac ty so tai chnh a. Phng phap so sanh: Cac ch so tai chnh se cung cap nhieu thong tin hn khi chung c so sanh vi cac ch so co lien quan. Cac nha phan tch thng s dung cac dang so sanh sanh: So sanh vi cac cong ty hoat ong trong cung lnh vc: Ta co the so sanh cac ch so tai chnh cua mot cong ty vi cac ch so tai chnh cua mot so cong ty khac hoat ong trong cung lnh vc. Bang s so sanh nay se thay c v the cua cong ty tren th trng, sc manh tai chnh cua cong ty so vi cac oi thu canh tranh va giai thch c s thanh cong hay that bai cua cong ty. 148 Bang 5.5. Phan tch cac ch so tai chnh cua cong ty co phan BKBH vi cong ty co phan TPK nam 2005 Ty so Cong ty CP BKBH 1,31 0,51 33,50 ngay 4,66 4,004 1,604 45,60% 83,80% 6,175 4,3% 6,9% 12,69% 7,338 Cong ty CP TPK 2,4 0,92 47 ngay 3,9 4,6 1,82 47% 88,7% 6,7 5,1% 9,28% 17,56% 8,0 Ty so thanh toan hien hanh Ty so thanh toan nhanh Ky thu tien bnh quan So vong quay hang ton kho Hieu suat s dung tai san co nh Hieu suat s dung toan bo tai san Ty so n tren tai san Ty so n tren von co phan Kha nang thanh toan lai vay Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu Ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap 149 Phan tch theo xu hng Xem xet xu hng bien ong qua thi gian la mot bien phap quan trong e anh gia cac ty so tr nen xau i hay ang phat trien theo chieu hng tot ep, co the so sanh vi nam trc o, hoac theo doi s bien ong qua nhieu nam. Ket qua s so sanh la thong tin rat can thiet cho ca ngi quan tr cong ty lan nha au t. 150 Hnh 5.1. Dien ta mot so ch so tai chnh cua cong ty BKBH thi gian qua vi cong ty hoat ong trong cung lnh vc TPK T s thanh ton nhanh 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 BKBH TPK 30 20 10 0 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 00 20 01 19 98 19 99 Tsn 60 50 (%) BKBH 40 TPK K thu ti n bnh qun 60 50 2.5 Hi u su t s d ng ti s n (%) 2 BKBH 40 BKBH 1.5 TPK 30 TPK 1 20 10 0 0.5 0 T su t sinh l i trn v n u t (%) 12 20 T su t sinh l i trn v n c ph n (%) BKBH 10 18 16 BKBH TPK TPK 8 6 4 2 0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 05 151 b. Phan tch Dupont cac ty so tai chnh: Hnh 5.2. S o phan tch Dupont cua cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005 ROE 12,69% ROA 6,9% Chia 1Tong n Tong tai san 1 0,456 Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu 4,3% Nhan Vong quay tai san 1,604 Lai rong 12.284.055.606 Chia Doanh thu 285.362.243.427 Doanh thu 285.362.243.427 Chia Tong tai san 177.859.999.907 Doanh thu 285.362.243.427 Tai san lu ong 100.172.191.896 Tai san co nh 71.262.466.516 Tai san khac 6.425.341.49 5 Tr Tong chi ph 273.078.187.821 Gia von hang ban 216.460.252.898 Tien & au t ngan han 11.170.113.788 Chi ph hoat ong 49.791.463.334 Khoan phai thu 26.583.506.752 Lai vay 3.094.576.449 Hang ton kho 61.231.246.530 Thue TNDN 3.731.895.140 Tai san lu ong khac 1.187.324.827 152 Cac ty so tai chnh c trnh bay phan tren eu dang mot phan so. ieu o co ngha la moi ty so tai chnh se tang hay giam tuy thuoc vao hai nhan to: la mau so va t so cua phan so o. Mat khac cac ty so tai chnh con anh hng lan nhau. Hay noi cach khac, mot ty so tai chnh luc nay c trnh bay bang tch mot vai ty so tai chnh khac. Ta co the lay ch tieu ty suat sinh li tren von co phan (ROE) lam v du: Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan = Li nhuan rong Von co phan Co the trnh bay ty suat sinh li tren von co phan di dang sau: Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan Doanh thu thuan = Von co phan x Doanh thu thuan Lai rong = Hieu suat s dung von co phan x Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu Ap dung cong thc tren cho cong ty BKBH nam 2005: Ty suat li nhuan tren von co phan (ROE) = 2,95 x 4,3% = 12,69% Luc nay ta co the phan tch ty suat sinh li tren von co phan theo hai ty so: hieu suat s dung von co phan va ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu. Chi tiet hn na ta co the phan tch ty suat sinh li tren von co phan thanh ba ty so nh sau: Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan = Doanh thu thuan Tong tai san x Tong tai san Von co phan x Li nhuan rong Doanh thu thuan 153 Hieu suat s = dung tong tai san x Ty so tong tai san tren von co phan x Ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan (ROE) tai cong ty BKBH nam 2005: = 1,604 x 1,838 x 4,3% = 12,69% Qua phan tch tren cho thay ty suat sinh li tren von co phan cua mot cong ty co the giai thch theo ba cach: (1) S dung hieu qua tai san hien co (2) Gia tang on bay tai chnh (3) Tang ty suat sinh li tren doanh thu Tren ay la v du n gian ve hai ch so anh hng en ty suat sinh li tren von co phan. Chung ta co the trien khai cac quan he phc tap hn gom nhieu ch so tac ong lan nhau va cuoi cung lam ty suat sinh li tren von co phan thay oi nh the nao. Hnh 5.2. Se cho ta thay s o phan tch Dupont ve tnh hnh tai chnh cua cong ty co phan BKBH. Qua s o nay chung ta thay c bc tranh toan canh ve tnh hnh tai chnh cua cong ty trong o hau het cac ch so eu co tng tac vi nhau. 5.2.4. Mot so van e gap phai khi phan tch ty so tai chnh Mac du phan tch tai chnh la con ng sang gia e co c thong tin, nhng khong han no khong gap phai nhng loi lam tiem an. Th nhat, s khac biet gia gia tr so sach ke toan va gia th trng cua cac loai tai san va nguon von nhat la trong ieu kien co lam phat cao. ieu nay a 154 bop meo cac bao cao tai chnh va keo theo tnh khong chnh xac cua cac ch so tai chnh. Th hai, do cac nguyen tac ke toan pho bien c s dung a lam cho viec xac nh thu nhap cua cong ty khong ung vi gia tr that cua no. Chang han nh viec ap dung phng phap khau hao nhanh a lam cho li nhuan cua nhng nam au rat t hoac khong co. ieu nay khong han do cong ty lam an khong co hieu qua. Mac du vay, khong co ngha la viec phan tch bang cac ch so tai chnh khong co y ngha. Nh a trnh bay: cac nha quan tr tai chnh, nha au t va ngi cung cap tn dung co c thong tin ang ke qua cac ch so tai chnh nay. Tom lai, khi c thiet lap mot cach chnh xac, khach quan, cac ch so tai chnh se la nhng ngi dan ng cho cac nha quan tr va nhng ngi ben ngoai cong ty nhan nh ve khuynh hng tng lai cua cong ty. 5.3. PHAN TCH BAO CAO DONG TIEN 5.3.1. Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc quoc te ve ke toan International Accounting Standards) Bao cao dong tien cho thay mot tom lc dong tien trong mot thi ky. Bao cao dong tien oi khi con c goi la bao cao nguon va s dung nguon, the hien mot cach nhn ve dong tien hoat ong, dong tien au t, va dong tien tai tr. Nhng dong tien nhat quan vi nhng thay oi trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng trong suot mot thi ky. Hnh 5.3 di ay minh hoa dong tien cua mot doanh nghiep. Hnh 5.3. Dong tien cua mot doanh nghiep 155 Chi ph lao ong N lng phat sinh Nguyen vat lieu Thanh toan chi ph thc te phat sinh Khoan phai tra Chi ph san xuat chung Thanh toan cac khoan tn dung thng mai (2) DONG TIEN AU T Mua Ban Khau hao Tai san co nh San pham d dang Thanh pham Chi ph hoat ong (bao gom khau hao) va chi ph lai vay Thue Doanh so ban hang Khoan phai thu Nop thue Hoan thue Doanh thu bang tien mat Tie Tien mat va chng khoan th trng Cac khoan tham gia au t cua doanh nghiep Mua Ban Vay Hoan tra N ngan han va dai han Ban co phieu Thu t khoan phai thu Mua co phieu Thanh toan co tc Von co phan (1) DONG TIEN HOAT ONG (3) DONG TIEN TAI TR Cung nen chu y en chng khoan th trng, s d co ten goi nh the la bi v chung co tnh thanh khoan cao va c xem nh la tien mat. Ca hai khoan muc tien mat va chng khoan th trng c xem nh la mot ni hap thu cac thanh khoan do nhng thay oi tang len hoac giam i trong tong dong tien thu vao hoac chi ra cua doanh nghiep. Dong tien cua doanh nghiep c hnh thanh t ba hoat ong: (1) Hoat ong kinh doanh Dong tien hoat ong (2) Hoat ong au t Dong tien au t (3) Hoat ong tai tr (hoat ong tai chnh) Dong tien tai tr 156 Dong tien hoat ong la dong tien vao va ra, co lien quan trc tiep en viec san xuat va tieu thu hang hoa hoac dch vu. Nhng dong tien nay co the thu thap c t bao cao thu nhap (bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh) hoac tren cac giao dch hien tai tren tai khoan ke toan phat sinh trong mot thi ky. Mac du viec vay n thuoc dong tien tai tr nhng chi ph tra lai vay th lai nam trong dong tien hoat ong. S d nh the la do ch ph tra lai vay c xem nh la cac chi ph e duy tr cac hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep va c hach toan vao chi ph trc khi tnh thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (Bang 5.6). Lu y la trong chuan mc ke toan Viet Nam, cac dong tien lien quan en cac hoat ong mua ban chng khoan v muc ch thng mai c phan loai la cac dong tien t hoat ong kinh doanh. 157 Bang 5.6. Noi dung phan nh dong tien t hoat ong kinh doanh Dong chi Tien chi tra cho ngi cung cap hang hoa va dch vu Dong thu Tien thu c t viec ban hang va cung cap dch vu Tien thu c t doanh thu khac Tien chi tra cho ngi lao ong ve tien lng, tien thng, tra ho ngi lao ong ve bao hiem, tr cap,... (tien thu ban quyen, ph, hoa hong, va cac khoan khac tr cac khoan thu c xac nh la luong tien t hoat ong au t va hoat ong tai tr) Tien chi tra lai vay Tien chi nop thue thu nhap doanh nghiep Tien chi tra cong ty bao hiem ve ph bao hiem, tien boi thng va cac khoan tien khac theo hp ong bao hiem Tien chi tra do b phat, b boi thng do doanh nghiep vi pham hp ong kinh te Tien thu do c khach hang vi pham hp ong kinh te boi thng Tien thu do c hoan thue Dong tien au t la dong tien gan vi viec mua va ban tai san co nh va cac khoan tham gia au t cua doanh nghiep (bussiness interests). Thuat ng tham gia au t ch ham y en cac khoan chi au t gop von va thu hoi von gop, tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li nhuan nhan c. 158 Nh vay, cac khoan thu nhap (hoac chi ra) t viec ban cac cong cu n hoac co phieu v muc ch thng mai khong c xem la dong tien au t. Bang 5.7. Noi dung phan nh dong tien t hoat ong au t Dong chi Tien chi e mua sam, xay dng tai san co nh va cac tai san dai han khac, bao gom ca nhng khoan tien chi lien quan en chi ph trien khai a c von hoa la tai san co nh vo hnh. Tien chi cho vay oi vi ben khac, tr tien chi cho vay cua ngan hang, to chc tn dung va cac to chc tai chnh. Tien chi mua cac cong cu n cua cac n v khac, tr trng hp tien chi mua cac cong cu n c coi la cac khoan tng ng tien va mua cac cong cu n dung cho muc ch thng mai. Tien chi au t gop von vao n v khac, tr trng hp tien chi mua co phieu v muc ch thng mai. Tien thu hoi cho vay oi vi ben khac, tr tien thu hoi cho vay cua ngan hang, to chc tn dung va cac to chc tai chnh. Tien thu do ban lai cac cong cu n cua cac n v khac, tr trng hp thu tien t ban cac cong cu n c coi la cac khoan tng ng tien va ban cac cong cu n dung cho muc ch thng mai. Tien thu hoi au t gop von vao n v khac, tr trng hp tien thu t ban lai co phieu a mua v muc ch thng mai. Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li nhuan nhan c. Tien thu t viec thanh ly, nhng ban tai san co nh va tai san dai han khac. Dong thu 159 Dong tien tai tr (hoat ong tai chnh) la ket qua t cac quyet nh tai tr bang von vay va von co phan trong cac quyet nh tai tr cua doanh nghiep. Cu the cac hoat ong nay lien quan en dong tien t viec vay n va hoan tra khoan vay (hoac la tren cac khoan n ngan han hoac la tren cac khoan n dai han) va chung tao ra nhng thay oi tng ng trong dong tien thu vao va chi ra. Tng t, viec ban co phieu se tao ra dong tien thu vao va thanh toan co tc cung nh mua lai co phieu tao ra dong tien chi ra. Bang 5.8. Noi dung phan nh dong tien t hoat ong tai tr Dong chi Tien chi tra von gop cho cac chu s hu, mua lai co phieu cua chnh doanh nghiep a phat hanh. Tien chi tra cac khoan n goc a vay. Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh. Co tc, li nhuan a tra cho chu s hu. Tong hp lai, dong tien hoat ong, dong tien au t va dong tien tai tr trong mot thi ky nao o se tac ong en so d tien mat va chng khoan th trng cua doanh nghiep. a. Phan loai nguon va s dung tien mat e co the lap bao cao dong tien chnh xac va de dang, au tien hay tom lc bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat trong mot thi ky. Lu y rang bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat chnh la cach tiep can au tien va tom lc nhat ve bao cao dong tien. 160 Dong thu Tien thu t viec phat hanh co phieu, nhan von gop chu s hu. Tien thu t cac khoan i vay ngan han, dai han. Chang han neu nh cac khoan phai tra tang len 100 ong th nguon tien mat thay oi la 100 ong va neu nh hang ton kho tang 2.500 ong th s dung tien mat thay oi la 2.500 ong. Sau ay la cach thc phan biet cac tang giam trong nguon va s dung tien mat: Bang 5.9. Nguyen tac phan nh Nguon va S dung tien mat Nguon Giam trong tai san Tang trong vay n Li nhuan rong sau thue Khau hao va cac chi ph khong bang tien mat khac Phat hanh co phieu S dung tien mat Tang trong tai san Giam trong vay n Lo rong Chi tra co tc Mua lai hoac thu hoi lai co phieu a phat hanh Giam trong tai san se tao nguon tien mat cua doanh nghiep trong khi o mot gia tang trong tai san lai la s dung tien mat. Khau hao va cac chi ph khong bang tien mat c xem la dong tien cua doanh nghiep va phai c cong tr lai li nhuan sau thue e co c dong tien hoat ong sau thue. Bi v khau hao c xem nh la mot nguon tien mat, cho nen ch co nhng thay oi gop trong TSC, ch khong phai nhng thay oi rong, se xuat hien trong bao cao dong tien e tranh tnh trung 2 lan. 161 Cac but toan trc tiep cua nhng thay oi trong li nhuan gi lai khong c tnh trong dong tien. Thay vao o la nhng khoan muc co kha nang tac ong en li nhuan gi lai se xuat hien, chang han nh la lai rong hoac lo sau thue va co tc. b. Trien khai bao cao dong tien Bao cao dong tien co the c trien khai ra thanh 5 bc: Bc 1, 2 va 3 la chuan b bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat. Bc 4, nhan cac d lieu can thiet t bao cao thu nhap (bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh). Bc 5 phan loai va a ra cac d lieu thch hp t bc 1 en bc 4. Tien trnh 5 bc nay se c minh hoa thong qua trng hp bao cao dong tien cua cong ty VDEC vi so lieu ban au thu thap c nh sau: 162 Bang 5.10. Bang can oi ke toan cong ty VDEC en ngay 31-12-2004 (n v tnh: trieu $) TAI SAN 1. Von bang tien 2. Chng khoan th trng 3. Cac khoan phai thu 4. Hang ton kho TAI SAN LU ONG 5. Tai san co nh TAI SAN CO NH TONG TAI SAN NGUON VON 6. Cac khoan phai tra 7. Vay ngan han ngan hang 8. N dai han en han tra 9. N ngan han khac N NGAN HAN 10. N dai han TONG N 11. Von co phan TONG NGUON VON 9.721 8.500 2.000 5.302 25.523 22.000 47.523 34.367 81.890 8.340 5.635 2.000 4.900 20.875 24.000 44.875 32.151 77.026 Nam 2004 2.540 1.800 18.320 27.530 50.190 31.700 31.700 81.890 Nam 2003 2.081 1.625 16.850 26.470 47.026 30.000 30.000 77.026 163 Bang 5.11. Bao cao thu nhap cua cong ty VDEC en ngay 31-12-2004 (n v tnh: trieu $) Khoan muc 1. Doanh thu thuan 2. Gia von hang ban 3. Lai gop 4. Chi ph hoat ong Chi ph ban hang Chi ph quan ly (trong o khau hao 250) 5. Toan bo chi ph hoat ong 6. Lai trc thue va lai vay (EBIT) 7. Lai vay 8. Lai trc thue 9. Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (40%) 10. Lai rong 11. Co tc co phan u ai 12. Thu nhap co phan thng 13. Li nhuan gi lai 14. So lng co phan thng (ngan co phan) 15. Gia tr th trng moi co phan ($) 16. Gia tr so sach moi co phan ($) 17. Thu nhap moi co phan (EPS - $) 18. Co tc moi co phan ($) 6.540 9.400 15.940 11.520 3.160 8.360 3.344 5.016 2.800 2.216 1.329,6 1.300 20 26,44 1,705 0,681 Nam 2004 112.760 85.300 27.460 164 Bc 1: Tnh toan nhng thay oi tren bang can oi ke toan trong tai san, cac khoan n va von co phan. (Chu y: tnh toan thay oi trong tai san co nh gop cho tai khoan tai san co nh cung vi bat ky nhng thay oi nao trong khau hao tch luy). Bc 2: S dung phan loai trong Bang 5.9. e phan loai moi thay oi c tnh trong bc 1 hoac la nguon (N), hoac la s dung (SD). Lu y la nhng thay oi tang len trong khau hao tch luy c phan loai nh la nguon, va giam trong khau hao tch luy la s dung. Nhng thay oi trong tai khoan von co phan c phan loai cung nh cach phan loai cac khan n tang len la nguon va giam i la s dung. Bc 3: Tong hp tat ca nguon va s dung t bc 1 en bc 2. Neu bao cao c chuan b mot cach chnh xac, th tong nguon se bang vi tong s dung. 165 Bang 5.12. Bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat cua cong ty VDEC vao cuoi ngay 31-12-2004 (n v tnh: trieu $) Tai san 1. Von bang tien 2. Chng khoan th trng 3. Cac khoan phai thu 4. Hang ton kho Tai san lu ong 5. Tai san co nh gop 6. Khau hao Tai san co nh TONG TAI SAN Nguon von 7. Cac khoan phai tra 8. Vay ngan han ngan hang 9. N dai han en han tra 10. N ngan han khac N ngan han 11. N dai han Tong n 12. Von co phan Co phan u ai Co phan thng Thang d von so vi menh gia Thu nhap gi lai TONG NGUON VON 9.721 8.500 2.000 5.302 25.523 22.000 47.523 34.367 7.886,4 1.300 22.751 2.429,6 81.890 8.340 5.635 2.000 4.900 20.875 24.000 44.875 32.151 7.000 1.300 22.751 1.381 2.865 0 402 4.648 -2.000 4.648 2.216 886,4 0 0 886,4 2.000 402 1.381 2.865 2004 2.540 1.800 18.320 27.530 50.190 35.220 -3.520 31.700 81.890 2003 2.081 1.625 16.850 26.470 47.026 33.000 -3.000 30.000 77.026 Thay oi 459 175 1.470 1.060 3.164 2.220 -520 1.700 4.864 520 2.220 Phan loai N SD 459 175 1.470 1.060 1.100 1.329,6 1.329,6 77.026 4.864 7.384 7.384 166 Tong cong Bc 4: Chnh la qua trnh thu thap 3 so lieu nhap lng t bao cao thu nhap e chuyen vao trong bao cao dong tien. Nhng nhap lng nay la (1) lai rong sau thue (2) khau hao va bat ky nhng thay oi nao trong cac chi ph khong bang tien mat va (3) thanh toan co tc tien mat. Trong bc 4, lai rong sau thue va khau hao co the lay trc tiep t bao cao thu nhap. Chang han lai rong sau thue va khau hao tren bao cao thu nhap la 5.016$ va 520$. Con co tc co the c tnh toan t phng trnh sau: Co tc = lai sau thue thay oi trong li nhuan gi lai Lai sau thue tap hp c t bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh con thay oi trong li nhuan gi lai co the c tm thay trong bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat, hoac bang cach s dung bang can oi ke toan au nam va cuoi nam. Neu gia tr co tc la co san tren bao cao thu nhap, co the lay chung trc tiep t ay. Phan loai va trnh bay cac thong tin thch hp Cac d kien thch hp t bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat trong cac bc 1, 2, va 3 cung vi lai rong, khau hao va co tc t bao cao thu nhap nhan c trong bc 4 se c s dung e chuan b cho viec lap bao cao dong tien. 167 Bang 5.13. Phan loai nguon d lieu cua bao cao dong tien Cac khoan muc va nguon d lieu Dong tien hoat ong Lai rong (hoac lo) sau thue Khau hao hoac chi ph khong bang tien mat khac Thay oi trong tong tai san ngan han ngoai tr khoan vay ngan han Dong tien au t Thay oi trong nguyen gia tai san co nh Thay oi trong cac khoan tham gia au t cua DN Dong tien tai tr (hoat ong tai chnh) Thay oi trong vay ngan han Thay oi trong n vay dai han Thay oi trong von co phan ngoai tr thu nhap gi lai Chi tra co tc N&SD N&SD N&SD BCTN N&SD N&SD BCTN BCTN N&SD Nguon d lieu* *N&SD: Bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat. BCTN: Bao cao thu nhap Bc 5: Phan loai toan bo cac d kien thch hp thanh 1 trong 3 dong tien: (1) Dong tien hoat ong (2) Dong tien au t (3) Dong tien tai tr 168 Bang cach xem Bang 5.12, chung ta se phat hien tat ca nhng thay oi trong tai san lu ong (tr cac khoan tien mat va chng khoan th trng do chung tng trng cho dong tien thuan con lai cuoi cung trong mot thi ky) va n ngan han (ngoai tr cac khoan vay ngan han). Cac nguon tien mat va lai sau thue cung vi khau hao c xem nh la cac gia tr dng the hien dong tien thu vao. Trong khi o tat ca cac khoan s dung va lo cung vi co tc la cac gia tr am the hien dong tien chi ra. Tong hp tat ca cac dong tien hoat ong, au t va tai tr chung ta se nhan c ket qua tang hoac giam thuan trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng. Khi kiem tra lai, chung ta se thay con so nay la nhat quan vi thay oi that s trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng ma chung ta tnh c t so au ky va cuoi ky tren bang can oi ke toan hoac t tren bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat trong ky. c. Phng phap lap bao cao dong tien hoat ong Doanh nghiep phai bao cao dong tien hoat ong theo mot trong hai phng phap sau: Phng phap gian tiep Phng phap trc tiep Con oi vi dong tien au t va dong tien tai tr th lap theo phng phap trc tiep. Phng phap gian tiep: Phng phap gian tiep thng cac nha quan tr tai chnh chuyen nghiep la chon v cach lam ngan gon (xem ket qua trong Bang 5.14). Khi thc hanh trong thc te, do so lieu tren bao cao thu nhap la tong li nhuan t cac hoat ong cua doanh nghiep nen chung ta nh lay tong li nhuan va ieu chnh cho cac khoan sau: 169 Cac khoan doanh thu, chi ph khong phai bang tien nh khau hao tai san co nh, cac khoan d phong. Lai lo, chenh lech ty gia hoi oai cha thc hien Cac khoan thay oi trong ky cua hang ton kho, cac khoan phai thu va khoan phai tra t hoat ong kinh doanh. Lai lo t hoat ong au t. Phng phap gian tiep bat au t: Li nhuan rong tren bao cao thu nhap, Sau o ieu chnh cac khoan hach toan thu chi khong bang tien mat (khau hao, trch lap d phong, anh gia lai tai san, chenh lech ty gia hoi oai), Loai tr cac khoan lai t hoat ong au t va hoat ong tai tr, Sau o ieu chnh nhng thay oi cua tai san lu ong (tang, giam) tren bang can oi ke toan e i en dong tien rong t hoat ong kinh doanh. 170 Bang 5.14. Bao cao dong tien cua cong ty VDEC nam 2004 (trong o dong tien hoat ong c lap theo phng phap gian tiep) Dong tien hoat ong Li nhuan rong (hoac lo) sau thue Khau hao Tang cac khoan phai thu Tang hang ton kho Tang khoan phai tra Giam cac khoan phai tra khac Tong dong tien hoat ong Dong tien au t Tang nguyen gia tai san co nh Thay oi trong cac khoan tham gia au t cua doanh nghiep 5.016 520 -1.470 -1.060 1.381 0 4.387 -2.220 0 Tong dong tien au t Dong tien tai tr Tang vay ngan han Tang vay ngan han khac Giam n dai han Thay oi trong von co phan ngoai tr li nhuan gi lai Chi tra co tc Tong dong tien tai tr Gia tang rong trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng -2.220 2.865 402 -2.000 886,4 -3.686,4 -1.533 634 171 Phng phap trc tiep: Theo phng phap nay cac ch tieu phan anh cac dong tien vao va cac dong tien ra c xac nh theo mot trong 2 cach sau ay: Phan tch va tong hp trc tiep cac khoan tien thu va chi theo tng noi dung thu, chi t cac ghi chep ke toan cua doanh nghiep. ieu chnh doanh thu, gia von hang ban va cac khoan muc khac trong bao cao hoat ong kinh doanh cho: Cac thay oi trong ky cua hang ton kho, cac khoan phai thu va cac khoan phai tra t hoat ong kinh doanh; Cac khoan muc khong phai bang tien khac. Cac dong tien lien quan en hoat ong au t va hoat ong tai tr. Sau ay la bao cao dong tien cua VDEC nam 2004 c lap theo phng phap trc tiep (Bang 5.15) Thu tien ban hang = Doanh thu ban hang + (thay oi trong khoan ng trc cua khach hang ) (thay oi trong khoan phai thu) = 112.760$ + (0) 1.470$= 111.290$. Chi tien mua hang = Gia von hang ban + (thay oi trong hang ton kho) (thay oi trong khoan phai tra ngi ban) = 85.300$ + 1.060$ - 1.381$ = 84.979$ Chi tra chi ph hoat ong (thc s bang tien) = Chi ph hoat ong + (thay oi trong chi ph tra trc) (thay oi trong chi ph phai tra) = (15.940$ - 520$) + (0$) (0$) = 15.420$ Chi tra thue thu nhap = Thue phai tra trong ky + (thay oi trong khoan thue tra trc) (thay oi trong khoan thue phai tra) = 3.344$ + (0$) (0$) = 3.344$ 172 Chi ph tra lai vay = Chi ph tra lai vay + (thay oi trong khoan lai vay tra trc) (thay oi trong khoan lai vay phai tra) = 3.160$ + (0$) (0$) = 3.160$ Bang 5.15. Bao cao dong tien cua VDEC nam 2004 (trong o dong tien hoat ong c lap theo phng phap trc tiep). Dong tien hoat ong Thu tien ban hang Chi tien mua hang Chi tra chi ph hoat ong Chi tra thue thu nhap doanh nghiep Chi tra lai vay Tong dong tien hoat ong Dong tien au t Tang nguyen gia tai san co nh Thay oi trong cac khoan au t cua doanh nghiep Tong dong tien au t Dong tien tai tr Tang vay ngan han Tang vay ngan han khac Giam n dai han Thay oi trong von co phan ngoai tr li nhuan gi lai Chi tra co tc Tong dong tien tai tr Gia tang rong trong tien mat va chng khoan th trng 111.290 -84.979 -15.420 -3.344 -3.160 4.387 -2.220 0 -2.220 2.865 402 -2.000 886,4 -3.686,4 -1.533 634 173 5.3.2. Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc KTVN VAS) a. Lap bao cao dong tien theo phng phap trc tiep: Bang 5.16. Bang hng dan lap bao cao cao dong tien theo phng phap trc tiep Ch tieu I. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong kinh doanh 1. Tien thu t ban hang, cung cap dch vu va doanh thu khac (1)+(2)+(3)(4) (+) 1- Thu tien ngay - Thu tien ban hang hoa 111,112, 113 111,112, 113 111,112, 113 5111 33311 -Thu tien ban thanh pham 5112 33311 - Thu tien cung cap dch vu 5113 33311 2 - Thu cua ky trc - Thu t hoat ong kinh doanh ban san pham, hang hoa +tien ng trc cua ngi mua hang hoa, dch vu. 3- Doanh thu nhan trc (neu co) 4 - Cac khoan giam tr - Chiet khau thng mai - Giam gia hang ban ... 2. Tien chi tra cho ngi cung cap hang hoa va dch vu (1)+(2) (-) 1- Tra tien ngay - Tra tien mua nguyen, nhien vat lieu, hang hoa 152,153, 156, 13311 111, 112 02 521 33311 532 33311 111,112 111,112 111,112, 113 111,112, 113 131 01 Noi dung Ma so oi chieu tai khoan TK N TK Co 3387 174 6278, - Tra chi ph dch vu mua ngoai 642,641, 13311 627, - Chi ph bang tien khac 2 - Phai tra cua ky trc - Chi tien tra cho cac khoan n lien quan en cac giao dch mua ban hang hoa, dch vu phat sinh t ky trc nhng ky nay mi tra tien va so tien chi ng trc cho nha cung cap hang hoa, dch vu 3. Tien chi tra cho ngi lao ong (-) 4. Tien chi tra lai vay Chi tra lai vay (khong phan biet tra (-) 5. Tien chi nop thue Thu nhap doanh nghiep Chi nop thue TNDN (khong phan biet so thue TNDN a nop cua ky (-) nay, so thue TNDN con n t cac ky trc a nop trong ky nay va so thue TNDN nop trc (neu co)) 6. Tien thu khac t hoat ong kinh doanh (+) Thu ve boi thng, c phat, tien thng, cac khoan tien thu khac... Thu hoi cac khoan a i ky quy, ky cc Tien thu do nhan ky quy, ky cc Tien thu do c hoan thue 7. Tien chi khac cho hoat ong kinh doanh (-) Chi ve boi thng b phat, cac khoan chi ph khac Tien chi a i ky quy, ky cc 07 811, 13311 144 06 111,112 111,112 111,112 111,112 3334 cho ky trc, tra trong ky va tra trc lai vay) 05 635, 335 Tam ng, thanh toan tien lng 04 03 334 331 641,642, 13311 111, 112 111, 112 111,112 111,112 111,112 ,113 111,112 ,113 711, 33311 144 344 133 111,112 111,112 175 Tien tra cac khoan nhan ky cc, ky quy Tien chi t quy khen thng, phuc li Tien nop cac loai thue (khong bao gom thue TNDN,tien nop cac loai ph, le ph, tien thue at Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh II. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong au t 1.Tien chi e mua sam, xay dng TSC va cac tai san dai khac 2.Tien thu t thanh ly, nhng ban TSC va cac tai san dai han khac 3. Tien chi cho vay, mua cac cong cu n cua n v khac 4.Tien thu hoi cho vay, ban lai cac cong cu n cua n v khac 5. Tien chi au t gop von vao n v khac 6. Tien thu hoi au t gop von vao n v khac 7. Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li nhuan c chia Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong au t III. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong tai chnh 1.Tien thu t phat hanh co phieu, nhan von gop cua chu s hu 2.Tien chi tra von gop cho cac chu s hu, mua lai co phieu cua doanh nghiep a phat hanh 32 31 30 23 24 25 26 27 22 han 21 Ma 20 = Ma 01+ Ma 02+Ma 03+Ma 04+Ma 05+Ma 06+Ma 07 344 431 3331, 3333, 3337, 3338 20 111,112 111,112 111,112 176 3. Tien vay ngan han, dai han nhan c 4. Tien chi tra n goc vay 5. Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh 6. Co tc, li nhuan a tra cho chu s hu Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong tai chnh Lu chuyen tien thuan trong ky (20+30+40) Tien va tng ng tien au ky anh hng cua thay oi ty gia hoi oai quy oi ngoai te Tien va tng ng tien cuoi ky 33 34 35 36 40 50 60 61 70 Ghi chu: Cac nghiep vu khong thng xuyen Ma so 01: Tien thu t ban hang hoa, cung cap dch vu chuyen tra ngay cac khoan cong n: N TK331/Co TK511, Co TK333. Tien ban quyen, ph, hoa hong va cac khoan doanh thu khac (nh ban chng khoan v muc ch thng mai) N TK111,112,113/Co TK511doanh thu khac. Ma so 02: Chi tien t thu cac khoan phai thu cua khach hang N TK152,153,156,331,62../Co TK131 Chi tien t tien vay ngan han nhan c chuyen tra ngay cho ngi ban N TK152,153,156,331,62../Co TK311 Ma so 04: 177 Chi tra lai vay t tien thu cac khoan phai thu khach hang chi tra lai vay ngay N TK635,335/Co TK131. Ma so 05: Chi tien nop thue TNDN t tien thu cac khoan phai thu cua cac khach hang N TK3334/Co TK131 b. Lap bao cao dong tien theo phng phap gian tiep: Bang 5.17. Bang hng dan lap bao cao cao dong tien theo phng phap gian tiep Ch tieu Noi dung Ma so oi chieu tai khoan TK N TK Co I. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong kinh doanh 1. Li nhuan trc thue (+) (-) 2. ieu chnh cho cac khoan - Khau hao TSC So khau hao TSC a trch vao chi (+) - Cac khoan d phong Cac khoan d phong giam gia c (+) trch lap vao chi ph san xuat kinh doanh trong ky -D phong giam gia au t ngan han, dai han - D phong phai thu kho oi - D phong giam gia hang ton kho (-) Hoan nhap cac khoan d phong trong ky - D phong giam gia au t ngan han, dai han - D phong phai thu kho oi - D phong giam gia hang ton kho - Lai, lo chenh lech ty gia hoi 04 129,229 139 159 515 711 711 635 642 632 129, 229 139 159 ph san xuat, kinh doanh trong ky bao cao 03 02 627,641, 642 214 Lai Lo 01 911 4212 4212 911 178 oai cha thc hien (-) (+) - Lai, lo t hoat ong au t (-) 1 - Phan thu thanh ly, nhng ban TSC Lai chenh lech ty gia hoi oai Lo chenh lech ty gia hoi oai 05 111, 112, 113,131, 138 111, 112 (+) 2 - Phan chi thanh ly, nhng ban TSC 3 - Lai/ lo ve thanh ly, nhng ban TSC (1 + 2) Li nhuan c chia t khoan au t von vao n v khac nh ky thu lai tn phieu, trai phieu 06 Chi ph lai vay phat sinh va a ghi (+) 3. Li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh trc thay oi von lu ong - Tang giam cac khoan phai thu Phai thu khach hang Chenh lech so d cuoi ky (SDCK) va Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) so d au ky (SDDK) phai thu khach hang (ma131) ieu chnh phai thu khach hang (+) (-) Phai thu lien quan en thanh ly TSC Thu tien lien quan en thanh ly TSC Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK tra trc cho ngi ban (ma 132) 131 111,112 (SDCKSDDK) TK331 711, 515, 33311 131 (SDCKSDDK) TK131 nhan vao ket qua kinh doanh trong ky Ma 08 = ma 01+ma 02+ma 03+ma 04+ma 05+ma 06 08 635 111,112, 341,311.. 111,112,1 38,222.. 111,112 121,221 811, 635, 13311 711, 515, 33311 131 111, 112, 113,331, 338 413 635 515 413 (-) (-) - Chi ph lai vay 515 515 09 Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) 179 Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK phai thu noi bo (ma 134) Phai thu khac (SDCKSDDK) TK136 (SDCKSDDK) TK138 711, 515, 33311 138 515, 33311 Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK phai thu khac (ma 138) ieu chnh phai thu khac (+) (-) (+) Phai thu lien quan en thanh ly TSC Thu tien lien quan en thanh ly TSC Phai thu co tc, li nhuan c chia Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK Thue GTGT c khau tr (ma 133) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK tam ng (ma 151) 10 Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK hang mua ang i tren ng (ma 141) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK nguyen vat lieu ton kho (ma 142) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK cong cu, dung cu trong kho (ma 143) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK chi ph SXKDDD (ma 144) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK thanh pham (ma 145) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK hang hoa ton kho (ma 146) 138 111,112 138 (SDCKSDDK) TK133 (SDCKSDDK) TK141 (SDCKSDDK) TK151 (SDCKSDDK) TK152 (SDCKSDDK) TK153 (SDCKSDDK) TK154 (SDCKSDDK) TK155 (SDCKSDDK) TK156 Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) - Tang giam hang ton kho Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) 180 Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) - Tang giam cac khoan phai tra (khong ke lai vay phai tra, thue thu nhap phai nop) Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK hang gi i ban (ma 147) (SDCKSDDK) TK157 11 (SDCKSDDK) TK331 (SDCKSDDK) TK131 Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK phai tra cho ngi ban (ma 313) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK ngi mua tra tien trc (ma 314) Thue va cac khoan phai nop nha nc Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK Thue va Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-) (SDCKSDDK) TK333 Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-) cac khoan phai nop nha nc (ma 315) ieu chnh thue thu nhap doanh nghiep Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep phai tra Chi nop thue TNDN (khong phan biet so thue TNDN a nop cua ky (-) 421 3334 (+) nay, so thue TNDN con n t cac ky trc a nop trong ky nay va so thue TNDN nop trc (neu co)) 3334 111,112, 113 Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK Phai tra cong nhan vien (ma 316) Chi ph phai tra TK 335: (SDCKSDDK) TK334 (SDCKSDDK) TK335 Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-) - Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK chi ph phai tra (ma 331) -ieu chnh chi ph phai tra 335: Chi ph lai vay phat sinh va a ghi (-) nhan vao ket qua kinh doanh trong ky Chi tra lai vay (khong phan biet tra cho ky trc, tra trong ky va tra 635 111,112, 341,311.. 111,112, 113 (+) 335,635 181 trc lai vay) Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK phai tra noi bo (ma 317) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK cac Hieu so>0 (+); hieu so <0 (-) khoan phai tra, phai nop khac (ma 318) - Tang giam Chi ph tra trc Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK chi ph tra trc (ma 152) Chenh lech SDCK-SDDK chi ph tra trc dai han (ma 241) 13 Chi tra lai vay (khong phan biet tra (-) cho ky trc, tra trong ky va tra trc lai vay) - Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep a nop Chi nop thue TNDN (khong phan biet so thue TNDN a nop cua ky (-) nay, so thue TNDN con n t cac ky trc a nop trong ky nay va so thue TNDN nop trc (neu co)) - Tien thu khac t hoat ong kinh doanh (+) (+) Tien thu do nhan ky quy, ky cc Thu hoi cac khoan a i ky quy, ky cc Tien t cac to chc ca nhan ben (+) - Tien chi khac t hoat ong kinh doanh (-) Tien tra cac khoan nhan ky cc, ky quy ngoai thng, ho tr ghi tang quy doanh nghiep 16 344 111,112 111,112 431,4.. 15 111,112 111,112 344 144, 244 3334 111,112, 113 335,635 111,112, 113 12 (SDCKSDDK) TK142 (SDCKSDDK) TK242 (SDCKSDDK) TK336 (SDCKSDDK) TK338 Hieu so>0 (-); hieu so <0 (+) - Tien lai vay a tra 14 182 (-) (-) Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong kinh doanh II. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong au t 1.Tien chi e mua sam, xay dng TSC va cac tai san dai han khac (-) Tien chi a i ky quy, ky cc Tien chi trc tiep t quy khen thng, phuc li va cac quy khac Ma 08+ ma 09+ ma 10+ma 11+ma 12+ma 13+ma 14 +ma 15 +ma 16 20 144, 244 431, 4.. 111,112 111,112 21 111,112, 113 111,112, 113 111, 112 - Chi tien mua sam TSC - ng tien cho nha thau, nha cung 211 (-) cap au t TSC va cac TS dai han khac - Chi ph xay dng c ban phat sinh bang tien 22 1 - Phan thu thanh ly, nhng ban TSC 2 - Phan chi thanh ly, nhng ban TSC 331 (-) 2.Tien thu t thanh ly, nhng ban TSC va cac tai san dai han khac (+) 241, 1332 111, 112, 113 111, 112 811, 635, 13311 331, 338 711, 515, 33311 131, 138 111, 112, 113 111, 112, 113 (-) 3 - Chenh lech thu chi ve thanh ly, nhng ban TSC (1 + 2) 3.Tien chi cho vay, mua cac cong cu n cua n v khac (-) (-) 4.Tien thu hoi cho vay, ban lai cac cong cu n cua n v khac (+) 24 Chi cho doanh nghiep khac vay Chi mua trai phieu, tn phieu, ky phieu 23 128, 228 121, 221 111, 112 111, 112 183 Thanh toan n goc trai phieu, tn phieu, ky phieu (+) (+) 5. Tien chi au t gop von vao n v khac (-) 6. Tien thu hoi au t gop von vao n v khac (+) 7. Tien thu lai cho vay, co tc va li nhuan c chia (+) (+) Thu lai tien gi ngan hang Thu co tc, li nhuan c chia (neu co) Thu hoi gop von vao cac doanh nghiep khac 27 Gop von vao cac doanh nghiep khac 26 Thu hoi n goc cac doanh nghiep khac vay Tien thu do ban lai trai phieu, tn phieu, ky phieu 25 111, 112 121, 221 111, 112 111, 112 128, 228 121, 221 221, 222,128, 228 111,112, 113 111, 112,113 221,222, 128,228 111, 112 111, 112 515, 33311 515, 33311 Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong au t Ma so 30= ma 21+ ma 22+ ma 23+ma 24+ma 25+ma 26+ma 27 30 III. Lu chuyen tien t hoat ong tai chnh 1.Tien thu t phat hanh co phieu, nhan von gop cua chu s hu Tien thu do nhan von trc tiep t NSNN hoac do cac chu s hu gop von Nhan cap phat von au t XDCB 2.Tien chi tra von gop cho cac chu s hu, mua lai co phieu cua DN a phat hanh (-) 32 111, 112 414 111, 112 411 31 184 Hoan tra von trc tiep cho NSNN hoac chu s hu 3. Tien vay ngan han, dai han nhan c Nhan tien vay ngan han t cac to chc tn dung Nhan tien vay dai han t cac to chc tn dung 4. Tien chi tra n goc vay Tra tien vay ngan han cho cac to chc tn dung Tra tien vay dai han cho cac to chc tn dung 5. Tien chi tra n thue tai chnh 6. Co tc, li nhuan a tra cho chu s hu Lu chuyen tien thuan t hoat ong tai chnh Lu chuyen tien thuan trong ky (20+30+40) Tien va tng ng tien au ky anh hng cua thay oi ty gia hoi oai quy oi ngoai te Tien va tng ng tien cuoi ky (50+60+61) 70 35 36 40 50 60 61 34 33 411 111, 112 111, 112 111, 112 311 341 311 341, 315 111, 112, 113 111,112 Lay so lieu v du tai cong ty co phan BKBH e thiet lap bao cao dong tien vao ngay 31-12-2005, au tien chung ta thiet lap bang phan biet nguon va s dung dong tien nh sau: 185 Bang 5.18. Bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat cua cong ty co phan BKBH vao cuoi ngay 31-12-2005 (n v tnh: ong) TAI SAN A. TAI SAN NGAN HAN I. Tien va cac khoan tng ng tien 1. Tien 2. Cac khoan tng ng tien II. Cac khoan au t tai chnh ngan han 1. au t ngan han 2. D phong giam gia au t ngan han (*) III. Cac khoan phai thu 1. Phai thu cua khach hang 2. Tra trc cho ngi ban 3. Phai thu noi bo ngan han 4. Phai thu theo tien o ke hoach hp ong XD 5. Cac khoan phai thu khac 6. D phong cac khoan phai thu kho oi (*) IV. Hang ton kho 1. Hang ton kho 2. D phong giam gia hang ton kho (*) V. Tai san ngan han khac 1. Chi ph tra trc ngan han 2. Thue GTGT c khau tr 3. Thue va cac khoan khac phai thu Nha nc 4. Tai san ngan han khac 725.812.696 826.726.487 100.913.791 1.290.191.882 437.920.581 126.458.605 1.089.225.122 (142.213.914) 58.485.823.029 58.485.823.029 732.040.256 (142.213.914) 61.231.246.530 61.566.390.183 (335.143.653) 1.187.324.827 299.635.840 60.962.500 138.284.741 65.496.105 335.143.653 3.080.567.154 357.184.866 24.005.549.325 22.108.789.872 949.748.245 26.583.506.752 25.540.870.164 452.810.246 496.937.999 3.432.080.292 0 Nam 2004 Nam 2005 Thay oi Nguon S dung 91.310.598.011 100.172.191.896 7.529.033.775 7.529.033.775 11.170.113.788 11.170.113.788 3.641.080.013 186 B. TAI SAN DAI HAN I- Cac khoan phai thu dai han 1. Phai thu dai han cua khach hang 2. Von kinh doanh n v trc thuoc 3. Phai thu dai han noi bo 4.Phai thu dai han khac 5. D phong phai thu dai han kho oi (*) II. Tai san co nh 1. Tai san co nh hu hnh - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 2. Tai san co nh thue tai chnh - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 3. Tai san co nh vo hnh - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) 4. Chi ph xay dng c ban d dang III. Bat ong san au t - Nguyen gia - Gia tr hao mon luy ke (*) IV. Cac khoan au t tai chnh dai han 1. au t vao Cong ty con 2. au t vao Cong ty lien doanh, lien ket. 3. au t dai han khac 4. D phong giam gia CK au t dai han (*) V. Chi ph tra trc dai han 1. Chi ph tra trc dai han 2. Tai san thue thu nhap hoan lai 68.223.689.500 77.687.808.011 0 64.780.218.934 63.390.053.816 71.262.466.516 63.063.651.743 7.977.292.914 8.303.694.988 147.994.221.805 155.971.514.719 (84.604.167.989) (92.907.862.977) 0 188.540.376 256.080.000 (67.539.624) 1.201.624.742 256.080.000 256.080.000 0 7.942.734.773 0 67.539.624 6.741.110.031 3.719.715.000 3.719.715.000 3.719.715.000 3.443.470.566 3.443.470.566 2.705.626.496 2.705.626.496 737.844.071 187 3. Tai san dai han khac TONG CONG TAI SAN NGUON VON A. N PHAI TRA I. N NGAN HAN 1. Vay va n ngan han 2. Phai tra ngi ban 3. Ngi mua tra tien trc 4. Thue va cac khoan phai nop Nha nc 5. Phai tra ngi lao ong 6. Chi ph phai tra 7. Phai tra noi bo 8. Phai tra theo tien o ke hoach hp ong xay dng 9. Cac khoan phai tra, phai nop ngan han khac 10. D phong phai tra ngan han II. N dai han 1. Phai tra dai han ngi ban 2. Phai tra dai han noi bo 3. Phai tra dai han khac 4. Vay va n dai han 5. Thue thu nhap hoan lai phai tra 6. D phong tr cap mat viec lam 7. D phong phai tra dai han B. NGUON VON CHU S HU I. Von chu s hu 1. Von au t cua chu s hu 2. Thang d von co phan 3. Von khac cua chu s hu 80.729.701.095 80.468.244.095 84.312.185.344 96.770.774.373 96.553.769.887 56.000.000.000 27.382.833.351 27.382.833.351 28.312.185.34 4 2.650.602.531 2.910.474.531 2.000.000.000 259.872.000 2.000.000.000 2.650.602.531 4.910.474.531 6.382.412.071 1.555.559.073 4.826.852.998 78.804.586.416 76.153.983.885 30.107.038.869 31.162.205.704 350.021.544 4.426.568.833 1.146.277.875 2.579.458.989 81.089.225.534 76.178.751.003 23.328.613.425 45.173.117.606 14.010.911.902 0 2.395.570.134 2.059.902.233 1.665.988.532 913.624.358 913.470.457 350.021.544 2.030.998.699 6.778.425.444 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907 188 4. Co phieu ngan quy 5. Chenh lech anh gia lai tai san 6. Chenh lech ty gia hoi oai 7. Quy au t phat trien 8. Quy d phong tai chnh 9. Quy khac thuoc von chu s hu 10. Li nhuan cha phan phoi 11. Nguon von au t XDCB II. NGUON KINH PH VA QuY KHAC 1. Quy khen thng va phuc li 2. Nguon kinh ph 3.Nguon kinh ph a hnh thanh TSC TONG CONG NGUON VON (6.588.010.602) 0 6.588.010.602 0 1.967.555.390 494.325.540 1.967.555.390 494.325.540 0 0 282.188.423 10.709.055.606 10.426.867.183 261.457.000 261.457.000 217.004.486 217.004.486 44.452.514 159.534.287.511 177.859.999.907 Tong cong 72.016.705.818 72.016.705.818 T bao cao nguon va s dung tien mat cua cong ty, chung ta ket hp vi 3 bang khac la: Bang can oi ke toan, bang can oi tai khoan, bang bao cao ket qua hoat ong kinh doanh e lap ra bang bao cao luan chuyen tien te (bao cao dong tien hoan chnh), xem bang bao cao luan chuyen tien te cua cong ty co phan BKBH nam 2005 (Bang 5.4). 5.3.3. Phng phap phan tch bao cao dong tien Bao cao dong tien se hu ch cho cac nha quan tr tai chnh va nhng ngi co quan tam phan tch c dong tien cua doanh nghiep. Cac nha quan ly co the chu y ac biet ti nhng phan loai chnh tren dong tien, hoac nhng khoan muc rieng biet tren dong tien thu vao va chi ra e anh gia xem cac chnh sach tai chnh cua doanh nghiep co mau thuan vi nhau hay khong. 189 Ngoai ra, bao cao dong tien con c s dung e anh gia cac qua trnh nham at c nhng muc tieu a c hoach nh. Bao cao nay khong tm cach lam cho tng ng cu the gia dong tien va dong tien chi ra, nhng chung co the c s dung e nhan dien nhng g mau thuan va ang chu y. Chang han nh nhng gia tang trong cac khoan phai thu va hang ton kho tao ra cac dong tien chi ra co the la mot dau hieu ve cac van e lien quan en tn dung va hang ton kho, theo nhieu nha phan tch va nghien cu tai chnh, mot so he so thng dung e phan tch tnh hnh lu chuyen tien te nh: He so dong tien vao cua tng hoat ong so vi tong dong tien vao (Individual sources of cash inflow / Total cash inflow); He so dong tien ra e tra n dai han so vi tong dong tien vao (Cash outflow for long-term debt repayment / Total cash inflow); He so dong tien ra e chi tra co tc so vi dong lu chuyen rong t hoat ong kinh doanh chnh (Dividends / Cash flow from operations). a. He so dong tien vao t hoat ong kinh doanh so vi tong dong tien vao: He so nay cung cap cho ngi oc mot ty le, mc o ve nang lc tao ra nguon tien t hoat ong kinh doanh chnh cua doanh nghiep. Thong thng, ty le nay chiem rat cao (tren 80%) va la nguon tien chu yeu dung trang trai cho hoat ong au t dai han va tra co tc cung nh cac khoan vay ngan han, dai han. Tuy nhien, khi phan tch can at chung trong mot boi canh cu the; chien lc va tnh hnh kinh doanh tng thi ky. Mot cach phan tch thng lien he la mang he so ky thc hien so vi cac ky trc e thay xu hng tang trng hay s on nh va so vi cac doanh nghiep tieu bieu cung nganh hay ch tieu bnh quan nganh e o lng s bien ong chung ve tnh hnh kinh doanh va ac iem dong ngan lu. 190 b. He so dong tien vao t hoat ong au t so vi tong dong tien vao: Hoat ong au t khong ke en au t tai san co nh la net ac trng cua doanh nghiep trong nen kinh te th trng. Tien te luon c tnh toan theo gia tr thi gian time value of money, moi ong tien eu co moi trng lu chuyen thong suot trong o chu yeu la th trng chng khoan. Ngoai ra, doanh nghiep thng au t vao cac lnh vc dai han khac: au t kinh doanh bat ong san, cho thue dai han tai san co nh, lien doanh, hun von, nham muc ch tm kiem nguon thu nhap on nh lau dai. Dong ngan lu ra e gia tang cac khoan au t, ngc lai mot s thu hoi cac khoan au t se the hien tren bao cao lu chuyen tien te la cac dong ngan lu vao. Tuy thuoc vao tnh hnh kinh doanh va cac khoan au t enn han thu hoi, he so phan tch se bien ong. Khi he so nay cang cao tc dong tien vao t hoat ong au t chiem ty trong cao, neu cha co ke hoach tai au t, doanh nghiep phai ngh ngay en viec ieu phoi nguon tien u tieu thanh toan cac khoan n dai han en han tra hoac tra trc han e giam chi ph lai vay. Sau o, ieu tiet von cho hoat ong kinh doanh chnh e giam cac khoan vay ngan han. c. He so dong tien vao t hoat ong tai chnh so vi tong dong tien vao: Hoat ong tai chnh la nhng nghiep vu lam thay oi c cau tai chnh cua doanh nghiep. Cu the la: tang giam cac khoan vay; tang giam von chu s hu khi huy ong, phat hanh co phieu; mua lai trai phieu, co phieu; tra co tc; li nhuan gi lai retained earnings Dong tien vao va ra (inflows outflows) tng tng vi s tang giam trong cac nghiep vu ke tren. Neu lu chuyen tien te t hoat ong kinh doanh khong u cho hoat ong au t, buoc doanh nghiep phai ieu phoi dong tien t hoat ong tai chnh. o 191 co the la mot khoan vay se c tang len, phat hanh them co phieu hay la s giam i hoac tham ch ngng tra cac khoan co tc. V thanh toan co tc trong trng hp nh vay la khong co c s neu khong phai ban bt i mot phan cong ty. d. He so dong tien ra e tra n dai han so vi tong dong tien vao: Tra n dai han oi vi cac khoan n cha en han tra lam cho he so dong tien ra tang cao va thng gan lien vi mot chien lc nao o. Thong thng mot ty le thanh toan n dai han so vi tong dong tien vao, at rat thap (5 10%) va dien ra rat eu an qua cac nam. Nguyen nhan chnh la do tnh chat cua khoan n dai han vi cac ieu khoan thanh toan on nh. Va cac khoan n dai han luon gan lien vi cac d an au t dai han co thu nhap lau dai. V vay, he so nay thay oi ot ngot la ieu can quan tam e tm nguyen nhan giai thch. e. He so dong tien ra e tra co tc so vi dong tien t hoat ong kinh doanh: He so dong tien ra e tra co tc so vi dong tien rong t hoat ong kinh doanh noi len viec s dung dong tien thu c t hoat ong kinh doanh dung tra li tc cho cac co ong. ay la mot chien lc kha phc tap. Mot so cong ty co chnh sach duy tr eu an mc tra co tc mac du phai s dung ca cac nguon von khac ke ca i vay, khi dong tien t hoat ong kinh doanh khong ap ng u, trong khi o mot so cong ty lai co chnh sach cng ran ngc lai. Tuy nhien, he so dong tien ra e tra co tc so vi dong tien rong t hoat ong kinh doanh phai luon c can nhac trc nhu cau au t hay s can thiet phai bo sung von cong ty trong tng giai oan chien lc kinh doanh. Khi cong ty quyet nh (do hoi ong quan tr) khong chi tra co tc, o co phai la dau hieu bao rang cong ty ang phat trien? 192 My hien nay, mot so cong ty co phan cong cong noi tieng va co gia co phieu cong ty khong ngng tang cao do nhu cau mua tang len cua cong chung, trong o chu yeu thuoc ve cac cong ty kinh doanh phan mem, lai la cac cong ty thng xuyen chi tra co tc tham ch co cong ty cha bao gi chi 1 ong co tc nao, t ngay thanh lap. 193 CHNG 6 PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON 6.1. CAC QUYET NH CAU TRUC VON 6.1.1. Khai niem Cau truc von cua doanh nghiep c nh ngha la s ket hp so lng n ngan han thng xuyen, n dai han, co phan u ai va von co phan thng c dung e tai tr cho quyet nh au t cua mot doanh nghiep. Ngc lai, cau truc tai chnh la s ket hp n vay ngan han, n dai han, co phan u ai, va von co phan thng c dung e tai tr cho quyet nh au t mot doanh nghiep. Nh vay, cau truc von ch la mot phan cua cau truc tai chnh, tieu bieu cho cac nguon thng xuyen cua tai tr mot doanh nghiep. e minh hoa cho khai niem cau truc von, gia du cong ty Baker Oil hien co 10 trieu o la n ngan han thng xuyen, 40 trieu n dai han cha thanh toan, 10 trieu co phan u ai, va 40 trieu co phan thng. Trong trng hp nay, cau truc von hien tai cua Baker la 50% n, 10% co phan u ai va 40% co phan thng. Nh vay, cau truc von lien quan en ty trong cua n thng xuyen, co phan u ai, va co phan thng the hien tren bang can oi ke toan. Trong phan tch cau truc von, can nhan manh en cau truc von muc tieu dai han; tc la cau truc von ma theo o daonh nghiep hoach nh cac chien lc toi u e hoat ong. oi vi hau het cac doanh nghiep, cau truc von hien tai va cau truc von muc tieu hau nh giong nhau, va viec tnh toan cau truc von muc tieu la mot qua trnh n gian. 194 Tuy nhien, oi khi cac doanh nghiep lai thay rang can phai thay oi cau truc von hien tai sang mot cau truc von muc tieu khac. Ly do cua s thay oi nay co the lien quan en viec thay oi trong hon hp tai san cua doanh nghiep (va do o mot thay oi trong rui ro cua doanh nghiep) hay mot gia tang trong canh tranh co the tiem an nhieu rui ro hn. V du, e ap ng vi rui ro va canh tranh gia tang trong cong nghiep ien cong tch, Standard va Poors, mot cong ty chuyen xep hang trai phieu, a giam ty le n mong muon trong cau truc von cua cac doanh nghiep nganh cong tch (phuc vu ien, nc) xep hang AA t pham vi 42% en 47% xuong con 39% en 46%. Ket qua la nhieu cong ty cong tch a thay oi cau truc von thien ve bao thu hn. 6.1.2. Cau truc von toi u Cau truc von toi u la mot hon hp n dai han, co phan u ai, va von co phan thng cho phep toi thieu hoa chi ph s dung von bnh quan cua doanh nghiep. Vi mot cau truc von co chi ph s dung von bnh quan c toi thieu hoa, tong gia tr cac chng khoan cua doanh nghiep (va, v vay, gia tr cua doanh nghiep) c toi a hoa. Do o, cau truc von co chi ph s dung von toi thieu c goi la cau truc von toi u. So lng n trong cau truc von toi u cua doanh nghiep c goi la kha nang vay n cua doanh nghiep. Cau truc von toi u va, do o, kha nang vay n cua mot doanh nghiep c xac nh bi cac yeu to: rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep va thue thu nhap ca nhan, mc o pha san co the co, chi ph ai ly, vai tro cua chnh sach cau truc von trong viec cung cap cac tn hieu ve thanh qua cua doanh nghiep cho cac th trng von. 6.1.3. Cac gia nh cua phan tch cau truc von 195 au tien, gia nh la chnh sach au t cua doanh nghiep gi nguyen khong oi khi ta xem xet tac ong cua cac thay oi trong cau truc von oi vi gia tr doanh nghiep va gia tr cua co phan thng. Gia nh nay co ngha la mc o va tnh kha bien cua lai trc va lai vay (EBIT) c d kien khong oi khi xem xet cac thay oi trong cau truc von. V vay, cac thay oi ve cau truc von ch tac ong en phan phoi lai trc thue va lai vay gia cac trai chu, co ong u ai va co ong thng. Bang gia nh mot chnh sach au t khong oi, chung ta gia nh rang viec au t do doanh nghiep thc hien khong lam thay oi kha nang tra n co the chap cua doanh nghiep. Tren thc te, gia nh nay khong phai luc nao cung ung, nhng oi vi phan ln cac d an au t, ay la mot gia nh co tnh thc te, giup chung ta chu trong vao cac yeu to quyet nh chu yeu cua mot cau truc von toi u. 6.1.4. Cac yeu to khac can xem xet trong quyet nh cau truc von Cac tieu chuan nganh Mot so nghien cu cho thay cau truc von gia cac nganh cong nghiep khac nhau rat nhieu. Cac nha phan tch tai chnh, cac ngan hang au t, cac c quan xep hang trai phieu, cac nha au t co phan thng va cac ngan hang thng mai thng so sanh rui ro tai chnh cua doanh nghiep, o lng bi cac ty so kha nang thanh toan lai vay, kha nang thanh toan chi ph tai chnh co nh va ty le on bay, vi cac tieu chuan hay nh mc cua nganh hoat ong. Co chng c ro rang la cau truc von cua doanh nghiep thay oi mot cach anh ke gia cac nganh hoat ong. Co chng c My chang han, trong thap nien 90, ty le n dai han bnh quan trong nganh xe hi vao khoang 43%. 196 Ty le nay nay cua nganh nha hang la 49%, nganh phan phoi kh thien nhien 45%, nganh ien cong ch la 50% va nganh may tnh la 21%. Cuoc nghien cu cua Kester cho thay ty le n tren von co phan thng cua doanh nghiep trong nganh giay la 1,36 lan, so vi 0,079 cua cac doanh nghiep trong nganh dc pham. Kester tm thay rang cac doanh nghiep cang sinh li cao, cang co khuynh hng s dung t n. Mot so nghien cu khac cho thay ty le on bay tai chnh trong cau truc von co tng quan phu nh vi tan suat pha san trong nganh. Cung co chng c rang cac doanh nghiep phat sinh cac dong tien on nh qua chu ky kinh doanh thng co khuynh hng co ty le on bay tai chnh cao hn. Noi chung, cac doanh nghiep co khuynh hng tap trung sat vi ty le n cua nganh, co the phan anh s kien la phan ln rui ro kinh doanh ma mot doanh nghiep gap phai la do nganh hoat ong an nh. Mot doanh nghiep chap nhan cau truc von khac biet ln vi mc bnh quan nganh se phai thuyet phuc cac th trng tai chnh la ru ro kinh doanh cua mnh cung se khac biet ang ke vi rui ro cua mot doanh nghiep trung bnh trong nganh e bao am cho cau truc von khac biet nay. Tom lai, cac nghien cu ve tac ong cua nganh hoat ong oi vi cau truc von thng i ti ket luan la co mot cau truc von toi u cho cac doanh nghiep ca the. Th trng se tng thng cho cac doanh nghiep at c cau truc von nay. Tac ong cua tn hieu Khi doanh nghiep phat hanh chng khoan mi, s kien nay co the c coi la ang cung cap mot tn hieu cho th trng tai chnh ve vien canh trong tng lai cua doanh nghiep hay cac hoat ong tng lai do cac giam oc cua doanh nghiep hoach nh. 197 Stephen Ross lap luan rang nhng tn hieu do cac thay oi cau truc von cung cap la ang tin cay v neu cac dong tien tng lai khong xay ra, doanh nghiep phai chu so tien phat tc chi ph pha san co the co. Noi chung, cac nghien cu ve thay oi cau truc von eu cho rang cac cung ng chng khoan mi a ti cac ap ng gia chng khoan giam. Viec mua lai co phan thng la se a ti cac li nhuan c cong bo dng ln t co phan thng cua doanh nghiep. Cac hanh ong lam tang on bay tai chnh thng gan vi thu nhap co phan dng va cac hanh ong la giam on bay tai chnh gan vi thu nhap co phan am. Ket qua cua nhieu cuoc nghien cu ve thay oi cau truc von luon nhat quan vi cac tac ong trc tiep cua thay oi, chang han nh cac li ch cua tam chan thue ln hn, va vi ca cac tac ong thong tin gian tiep. V vay, khi mot doanh nghiep thc hien quyet nh thay oi ve cau truc von, doanh nghiep phai chu y en tn hieu co the co ve cac vien canh thu nhap tng lai va hien tai cua doanh nghiep cung nh cac d nh cua cac giam oc ma giao dch c e xuat se chuyen en th trng. Tac ong cua u tien quan tr: ly thuyet trat t phan hang Myers a cho rang co the khong co mot cau truc von muc tieu rieng. Ly thuyet trat t phan hang cua Myers ham y rang cac doanh nghiep thch tai tr noi bo hn. Myers lap luan rang cac giam oc ieu chnh ty le chi tra co tc e tranh viec ban co phan thng ra ben ngoai trong khi tranh cac thay oi ln trong so lng co phan. Neu can phai co tai tr t ben ngoai, Myers cho rang cac chng khoan an toan nhat nen c phat hanh trc. Cu the n thng la chng khoan au tien c phat hanh va von co phan ban ra ben ngoai la giai phap cuoi cung. 198 u tien cho tai tr noi bo da tren c muon tranh cac bien phap ky luat va giam sat se xay ra khi ban chng khoan mi ra cong chung. Ngoai ra, Myers lap luan rang trat t phan hang tai tr co the phan anh cac chi ph phat hanh tng oi cho nhieu loai chng khoan khac nhau. Ly thuyet trat t phan hang giup giai thch tai sao cac doanh nghiep sinh li cao thng co ty le n thap. Cac ham y ve quan tr cua ly thuyet cau truc von Cac nghien cu cau truc von ve ly thuyet cung nh thc nghiem a cung cap cho cac giam oc tai chnh nhng hieu biet sau sac quan trong. Quyet nh cau truc von la mot trong nhng quyet nh quan trong ma cac giam oc tai chnh phai quan tam. Trc het, hau nh chac chan cac thay oi trong cau truc von se a en cac thay oi trong gia tr th trng cua doanh nghiep. Th hai, li ch cua tam chan thue t n a en gia tr doanh nghiep gia tang, t nhat la en iem ma chi ph ai ly va chi ph pha san gia tang lam bu tr li the ve thue cua n. Th ba, cau truc toi u chu anh hng nang ne bi rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. Th t, khi cac giam oc thc hien cac thay oi hien hien trong cau truc von cua doanh nghiep, cac hanh ong nay se chuyen cac thong tin quan trong en cac nha au t. Cac van e ao c: Tac ong cua mua lai bang von vay (LBO) oi vi co ong Toc o nhanh chong cua cac vu sap nhap va mua lai trong thap nien 1980 a neu len nhien van e ang chu y lien quan en quyen cua nhieu co ong khac nhau trong cac giao dch nay. Cac mua lai bang von vay a en cac gia tang ln hn trong so lng n dung e tai tr mot doanh nghiep trong vai trng hp len en 95% cau truc von. 199 Viec s dung so lng n ln nay cho phep mot nhom nho cac nha au t mua lai quyen s hu va kiem soat mot doanh nghiep ln ch vi mot au t von co phan tng oi nho. Ganh nang cac chi ph tai chnh co nh t viec tai tr n cung buoc cac giam oc gia tang toi a hieu nang hoat ong cua doanh nghiep va mua lai. Cac li ch nay cua cac mua lai bang von vay c chng minh va ghi nhan tot trong cac tai lieu. Tuy nhien, cac li ch nay khong phai kem theo cac chi ph ang ke. V du, hieu nang hoat ong gia tang thng at bang cach cat giam viec lam, cat giam tien lng, va ong ca cac nha may hoat ong khong hieu qua. Viec mua lai bang von vay cong ty Safeway lam cho 63.000 giam oc va nhan vien b mat viec do ban va ong ca cac ca hang. Cac nhan vien nay khi c cac chu mi cua cac ca hang nay tai tuyen dung phai chap nhan mc lng thap hn trc rat nhieu. Nhieu to chc b mat cac ong gop va ho tr rat ln cua cong ty Safeway hao phong trc ay. Cac trai chu cua cong ty va b mua lai cung ganh chu mot khoan thu lo ln trong gia tr trai phieu cua ho khi mot mua lai bang von vay c cong bo. Trong viec mua lai RJR Nabisco, Cong ty Metropolitan Life Insuarance va cac trai chu khac a khi kien ve cac thua lo ma cac trai chu cua RJR phai ganh chu vao luc mua lai nay. Mua lai bang von vay at ra cac van e ao c quan trong. Cac quyen li co tnh canh tranh cua co ong se c giai quyet nh the nao trong cac mua lai bang von vay va trong cac giao dch tai chnh quan trong khac? Tuy nhien, cac cau hoi nay t khi co c cau tra li n gian. Mot vai van e can xem xet khi thao luan ve tnh ao c cua cac mua lai bang von vay. 200 Co phai viec duy tr so lng nhan vien va cac c s hoat ong khong hieu qua lam giam kha nang canh tranh cua doanh nghiep vi cac doanh nghiep khac la v li ch lau dai cua nhan vien khong? Trong cac giao dch mua lai bang von vay, cac trai chu co thc s b thiet hai, khi tnh en cac ieu khoan bao ve trong hp ong ky ket luc ho mua trai phieu vi moi lien he gia li tc trai phieu va thoa hiep bao ve khong? Cac oi hoi cua nha cho vay va c quan va c quan xep hang trai phieu Cac nha cho vay va cac c quan xep hang trai phieu thng nh ra cac gii han cho viec la chon cau truc von cua doanh nghiep nh la mot ieu kien e cung cap tn dung hay duy tr xep hang cua trai phieu hoac co phan u ai. Th du, Standard & Poors a lap cac nh chuan trong bang di ay e xep hang n cua nganh ien cong ch. Cac ty so trong bang nay khong ch la cac yeu to c xem xet khi lap bang xep hang trai phieu cho mot doanh nghiep, ma con la cac hng dan rat quan trong ma mot doanh nghiep phai tuan thu neu muon duy tr hay cai tien xep hang tn nhiem cua mnh. Hang AAA AA A BBB BB Kha nang thanh toan lai vay Ln hn 4,5 lan T 3,5 en 5,0 lan T 2,5 en 4,0 lan T 1,5 en 3,0 lan t hn 2,0 lan on bay tai chnh t hn 41% T 39 en 46% T 44 en 52% T 50 en 58% Ln hn 56% Bang 6.1. Tieu chuan xep hang trai phieu ien cong ch 201 S khong thch rui ro cua cap quan ly Viec cap quan ly co san long chap nhan rui ro hay khong thng co tac ong ln en cau truc von ma doanh nghiep la chon. Mot vai giam oc chap nhan cac cau truc von co nhieu rui ro mot cach khac thng hay co mc rui ro thap mot cach khac thng. Khi mot cau truc von di toi u c chon, th trng tai chnh se phat doanh nghiep v hanh ong (la chon) nay. Th du, ty le n trung bnh cua nganh nc giai khat My trong thap nien 90 la 41%. Ty le n cua cong ty Adolph Coors la 0%, do chnh sach tai tr va la chu nhan va la giam oc cc ky bao thu. Hau het cac nha phan tch eu ong y rang Coors co the them mot so lng n vao cau truc von cua mnh mot cach an toan e t o ha thap c chi ph s dung von bnh quan va lam gia tang gia tr th trng cua doanh nghiep. Cooors co kha nang duy tr cau truc von nay v gia nh Coors kiem soat 100% co phan co quyen bo phieu. Neu quyen kiem soat cua chu nhan kiem ieu hanh nay khong hien hu, rat co the Coors se b cac chu nhan mi mua lai va chu nhan mi nay nay se ieu chnh cau truc von cua cong ty mot cach ang ke. Cac khac biet trong chnh sach ve cau truc von thch hp cho mot doanh nghiep la mot ong lc chnh ang sau nhieu mua lai bang von vay (LBO). 6.2. PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON 6.2.1. Phan tch EBIT - EPS Phan tch EBIT-EPS la mot ky thuat phan tch c dung e xac nh cac tnh huong mot doanh nghiep nen s dung on bay tai chnh. Ve c ban, no lien quan en tnh toan thu nhap moi co phan tai cac mc EBIT khac nhau cho cac phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh va tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. Va thong tin nay co the c dung e o th hoa thu nhap moi co phan so 202 vi iem hoa von EBIT va xac nh cac mc EBIT ma on bay tai chnh se co li cho doanh nghiep. Lay v du tai cong ty Macbeth Spot Removers hien co mot cau truc ch gom co co phan thng (35 trieu co phan). Gia du la Macbeth ang xem xet viec m rong hoat ong va ang tham nh hai phng an tai tr e la chon. Phng an 1, tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan, lien quan en viec ban them 15 trieu co phan thng vi gia 20$ moi co phan. Phng an 2, tai tr them bang n, lien quan en viec phat hanh 300 trieu o la trai phieu lai suat 10%. Neu chap nhan phng an 1, cau truc von cua cong ty van la cau truc von tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. Nhng neu chap nhan phng an 2, cau truc von cua cong ty se chuyen sang cau truc von co s dung on bay tai chnh. V phng an 2 lien quan en viec s dung on bay tai chnh nen van e c ban ma phng thc tai tr nay at ra la lieu viec s dung on bay tai chnh co em en li ch tot nhat cho cac co ong hien hu cua doanh nghiep hay khong. 203 n v tnh: trieu o la EBIT = 75 Phng an 1 Tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan EBIT Lai vay EBT (lai trc thue) Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (40%) EAT (lai sau thue) So co phan cha chi tra (trieu co phan) EPS % thay oi trong EBIT % thay oi trong EPS Phng an 2 Tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh EBIT Lai vay EBT (lai trc thue) Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (40%) EAT (lai sau thue) So co phan cha chi tra (trieu co phan) EPS % thay oi trong EBIT % thay oi trong EPS Bang 6.2. Phan tch EBIT EPS cong ty Macbeth 204 EBIT = 125 75 75 30 45 50 0,90 125 125 50 75 50 1,50 +66,67% +66,67% 75 30 45 18 27 35 0,77 125 30 95 38 57 35 1,63 +66,67% +112% Bang 6.2 minh hoa tnh toan EPS tai hai mc EBIT gia nh khac nhau cho ca hai phng thc tai tr. V moi lien he gia EBIT va EPS la tuyen tnh, hai iem tnh trong bang 6.2 co the c dung e o th hoa moi lien he cho moi phng an tai tr. Neu EBIT thap hn 100 trieu o la, thu nhap moi co phan cua phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan cao hn phng an tai tr phng an 2. Tng ng, cac mc EBIT ln hn 100 trieu o la, thu nhap moi co phan cao hn khi s dung phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh. Con so 100 trieu o la c goi la iem hoa von EBIT. Theo nh ngha, tai iem hoa von EBIT, thu nhap moi co phan cua hai phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh va tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan th bang nhau: EPSDE = EPSE Phng trnh xac nh iem hoa von EBIT c viet nh sau: EPS = EBIT (1 T ) ( EBIT R ) (1 T ) = NE NDE (6.1) (6.2) Vi NE tieu bieu cho so co phan thng cha chi tra tng ng cua phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. NDE tieu bieu cho so co phan thng cha chi tra cua phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh. Phng trnh nay co the c dung e tnh toan trc tiep mc EBIT hoa von. Tai mc EBIT hoa von nay, thu nhap moi co phan cua hai phng an tai tr bang nhau. Vi cac d lieu trong v du bang 6.2 cho ta mc EBIT la 100 trieu o la tai iem hoa von: EPS = EBIT (1 40%) ( EBIT 30 ) (1 40%) = 50 35 205 21EBIT = 30EBIT - 900 9EBIT = 900 EBIT = 100 (trieu o la) Trong phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan, mot gia tang 66,67% trong EBIT (t 75 trieu o la len 125 trieu o la) a en mot gia tang 66,67% trong thu nhap moi co phan (t 0,9$ len 1,5$), hay o nghieng on bay tai chnh la 1,68. Mot sut giam tng t trong thu nhap moi co phan se xay ra neu EBIT giam. Bien thien rong hn nay trong thu nhap moi co phan xay ra vi phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh la mot minh hoa cua rui ro tai chnh, v rui ro tai chnh c nh ngha la tnh kha bien gia tang trong thu nhap moi co phan do viec s dung on bay tai chnh cua doanh nghiep. Khi cac yeu to khac bang nhau, mot gia tang trong ty le tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh se lam gia tang rui ro tai chnh cua doanh nghiep. EPS EPS ( o la) Tai tr n Tai tr co phan thng 1,63 1,50 1,00 0,90 0,77 Li the cua tai tr bang co phan thng Li the cua tai tr bang n vay 75 100 125 EBIT ( trieu o la) 0 o th 6.1. Phan tch EBIT EPS: Cong ty Macbeth 206 Bc 1: Tnh toan mc EBIT d kien sau khi m rong hoat ong. Can c tren kinh nghiem hoat ong a qua cua Macbeth va mot d kien ve tac ong cua viec m rong kinh doanh, giam oc tai chnh c tnh EBIT d kien se la 125 trieu $/nam trong cac ieu kien hoat ong bnh thng. Bc 2: c lng tnh kha bien cua mc li nhuan kinh doanh nay. Da tren thanh qua qua kh cua cong ty qua nhieu chu ky kinh doanh, o lech chuan cua li nhuan kinh doanh c c lng vao khoang 25 trieu$/nam. (Gia du lai trc thue va lai vay c phan phoi chuan hay t nhat vao khoang o). Bc 3: Tnh toan iem hoa von EBIT gia hai phng an tai tr them n mi hay duy tr cau truc von 100% von co phan. Dung phng phap phan tch EBIT EPS va trnh bay, giam oc tai chnh a tnh c iem hoa von EBIT la 100 trieu $. Bc 4: Phan tch cac c lng nay trong boi canh rui ro ma cong ty san sang chap nhan. Sau nhieu cuoc thao luan, cong ty quyet nh san sang chap nhan mot c hoi 25% lai trc thue va lai vay trong moi nam se thap hn iem hoa von va mot c hoi 5% doanh nghiep se phai bao cao lo trong tng nam. e hoan tat phan tch nay, can tnh xac suat lai trc thue va lai vay se thap hn iem hoa von EBIT; tc la xac suat EBIT se t hn 100 trieu $. Tren ng cong phan phoi chuan nay se tng ng vi: z= 100trieu$ 125trieu$ = 1, 0 25trieu$ (6.3) Hay o lech chuan 1,0 di trung bnh. Xac suat EBIT se thap hn o lech chuan 1,0 di trung bnh la 15,87% (xem phan phu luc phan phoi chuan cua z cuoi sach). V vay, tren c s tieu chuan iem hoa von EBIT, cau truc von mi c e xuat co ve chap nhan c. 207 Bay gi ta phai phan tch xac suat chu lo. o la xac suat EBIT se t hn chi tra oi hoi 30 trieu $. Tren ng cong phan phoi chuan, iem nay tng ng vi: z= 30trieu$ 125trieu$ = 3,8 25trieu$ Hay o lech chuan 3,8 di trung bnh. Xac suat EBIT se t hn o lech chuan 3,8 di trung bnh tien ti 0 (xem phan phu luc phan phoi chuan cua z cuoi sach). Theo tieu chuan nay giam oc tai chnh cua Macbeth co the rat yen tam khi a e xuat cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh. Neu mot trong hai hoac ca hai th nghiem nay cho thay cau truc von e xuat co mc o rui ro khong the chap nhan, giam oc tai chnh se phai lap lai phan tch nay oi vi cac mc n thap hn cac tieu chuan do doanh nghiep nh ra, giam oc tai chnh co the muon xem xet cac mc n cao hn mc e ngh phat hanh 300 trieu $ trai phieu. Bc 5: Xem xet cac chng c th trng e xac nh cau truc von e xuat co qua rui ro khong. Viec lam nay lien quan en cac iem sau: mc o rui ro kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, nh mc nganh cho cac ty so on bay va ch so kha nang thanh toan, khuyen cao cua cac ngan hang oi vi doanh nghiep. Bc nay ch thc hien sau khi cau truc von e xuat ap ng c cac th nghiem noi bo ve tnh kha thi cua no. on bay tai chnh la mot con dao hai li: lam tang li nhuan d kien nhng cung lam tang rui ro. Neu gia tang trong rui ro cam nhan c ln hn gia tang trong thu nhap d kien, chi ph s dung von bnh quan cua doanh nghiep co the tang thay v giam, va gia tr cua doanh nghiep se sut giam. 208 on bay tai chnh va gia co phan: Cau hoi quan trong nhat at ra t phan tch EBIT EPS la tac ong cua on bay tai chnh oi vi gia co phan thng cua doanh nghiep nh the nao? Cu the, phng an tai tr nao se lam cho gia co phan cao hn? Gia du Macbeth co the hoat ong mc EBIT 125 trieu o la. Neu cong ty chon phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh, EPS se bang 1,63$ va neu cong ty chon phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. EPS se bang 1,5$. Nhng gia co phan lai tuy thuoc vao ty so gia thu nhap (P/E) ma th trng chng khoan phan bo cho moi phng an. Noi cach khac, gia co phan khong ch tuy thuoc vao EPS ma con phu thuoc vao ty so gia thu nhap P/E cua doanh nghiep. Gia du th trng chng khoan se phan tch va d bao ty so P/E la 10,0 cho co phan thng cua cong ty neu chon phng an tai tr hoan toan bang co phan thng va 9,8 neu chon phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh. Co the tnh gia co phan thng P0 cho ca hai phng an sau: P0 = EPS x P/E Phng an tai tr hoan toan bang co phan thng: P0 = 10,0 x 1,50$ = 15$ Phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh: P0 = 9,8 x 1,63$ = 15,97 hay tnh tron 16$ Cac tnh toan tren cho thay trong trng hp nay th trng chng khoan a at mot gia tr cao hn cho co phan thng cua cong ty neu phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh c chon thay v phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan. Lu y rang th trng chng khoan cung co the phan bo mot ty so P/E hi thap hn cho phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh, bi v th trng chng khoan a tha nhan gia tang rui ro tai chnh gan vi phng an tai tr nay. Nhng cung co the rui ro gia tang nay se en bu nhieu hn bang gia 209 tang EPS co the co khi s dung on bay tai chnh va ieu nay co the lam cho gia co phan cua phng an tai tr bang on bay tai chnh se cao hn phng an tai tr bang von co phan. Nhng minh hoa cho thay rang ngay ca khi doanh nghiep a at c tren iem hoa von EBIT la 100 trieu $ th doanh nghiep cung cha the xay dung mot cau truc von co s dung on bay tai chnh. Nhan nh nay trai ngc hoan toan vi suy ngh cua chung ta trc ay khi cho rang neu doanh nghiep vt qua iem hoa von EBIT th mot cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh co ve nh lam li cho co ong nhieu hn so EPS cao hn. Nhan nh nay a bo qua yeu to gia co phan cua doanh nghiep, co the EPS tang len nhng gia co phan lai khong tang hoac tham ch co the giam. Vay lam the nao e biet c mc EBIT ma tai o lam toi a hoa gia tr th trng cua doanh nghiep. iem hoa von gia th trng la iem ma tai o neu EBIT d kien thap hn iem hoa von th trng th cau truc von thien ve s dung von co phan se co li hn. Ngc lai neu EBIT d kien vt qua iem hoan von gia tr th trng th cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh se lam toi a hoa gia tr th trng cua doanh nghiep. iem hoa von th trng c xac nh bang phng trnh: EBIT (1- T ) P / EE ( EBIT - R ) (1- T ) P / EDE = NE NDE 0,6 EBIT 10 0,6 ( EBIT 30 ) 9,8 = 50 35 210EBIT = 294EBIT 8.820 84EBIT = 8.820 210 EBIT = 105 trieu $ Neu nh giam oc tai chnh d bao EBIT thap hn iem hoa von gia tr th trng la 105 trieu $, cau truc von co phan se lam tang gia tr th trng cua doanh nghiep. Ngc lai, neu EBIT d kien vt iem hoa von gia tr th trng la 105 trieu $ th cau truc von thien ve s dung on bay tai chnh se lam gia tang gia tr th trng. Tom lai, doanh nghiep co the gia tang thu nhap cho co ong bang cach gia tang mc rui ro tai chnh. Tuy nhien, v gia tang rui ro co khuynh hng lam gia tang chi ph s dung von (tng t nh mot sut giam trong ty so P/E), giam oc tai chnh phai anh gia, xem xet viec anh oi gia thu nhap moi co phan cao hn cho cac co ong vi chi ph s dung von cao hn e t o a ra mot quyet nh hieu qua hn. 6.2.2. Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat Cac ty so kha nang thanh toan lai vay, kha nang thanh toan cac chi ph co nh va kha nang thanh khoan khong cho ta mot hnh anh ay u ve v the kha nang thanh toan cua doanh nghiep. Mot doanh nghiep b coi la mat kha nang thanh toan ve mat ky thuat neu khong ap ng c cac ngha vu n hien hanh (ngan han). Do o chung ta can mot so o toan dien hn ve kha nang ap ng cac ngha vu n cua mot doanh nghiep khi doanh nghiep s dung thong tin nay trong viec hoach nh cau truc von. So o nay phai tnh ca tien mat co san va tien mat d kien phat sinh trong tng lai. Donaldson cho rang mc o cua cac chi ph tai chnh co nh cua mot doanh nghiep (bao gom lai vay, co tc u ai, ngha vu quy hoan trai va thanh toan tien thue tai san) the hien kha nang vay n cua mot doanh nghiep se tuy thuoc vao so d tien mat va cac dong tien rong d kien co san trong mot trng hp xau nhat (giai oan suy thoai). Phan tch nay oi hoi chuan b mot ngan sach tien mat chi tiet theo cac ieu kien suy thoai gia nh. 211 Donaldson nh ngha so d tien mat rong CBR cua mot doanh nghiep trong ky suy thoai la: CBR = CB0 + FCFR Vi CB0 la so d tien mat (va cac chng khoan th trng) vao au ky suy thoai, va FCFR la cac dong tien t do d kien phat sinh trong ky suy thoai. Chang han, vao thang 9 nam 1999, AMAX Corporation, mot cong ty tai nguyen thien nhien My, bao cao mot so d tien mat va cac chng khoan th trng khoang 154 trieu o la. Sau nhieu lan thao luan, gia du giam oc tai chnh d bao rang dong tien t do la 210 trieu o la trong mot ky suy thoai d kien 1 nam. Dong tien t do nay phan anh cac dong tien hoat ong trong suot thi ky suy thoai va cac chi ph tai chnh co nh ngan han oi hoi. Vi cau truc hien tai, gom khoang 32% n, so d tien mat vao cuoi ky suy thoai se la 364 trieu o la (154 trieu o la cong vi 210 trieu o la). Gia du rang ban quan ly cua AMAX ang xem xet mot thay oi trong cau truc von, se lam tang them 280 trieu o la tien lai sau thue hang nam va chi tra quy hoan trai (tc la cac chi ph tai chnh co nh). Ket qua la mot so d tien mat vao cuoi ky suy thoai bang: CBR = 154 trieu + 210 trieu 280 trieu = 84 trieu Xac suat xay ra = 140 trieu $ - 210 -70 70 210 350 FCE R = 210 trieu $ 490 630 Dong tien t do (FCFR) (trieu $) 212 Xac suat xay ra =140 trieu$ - 280 -140 0 140 280 CB R = 84 trieu $ 420 So d tien mat (CBR) (trieu $) o th 6.2. Phan tch dong tien t do (FCFR) va so d tien mat (CBR) Cac giam oc tai chnh cua AMAX phai quyet nh xem so d tien mat d kien 84 trieu o la nay co tao mot khoang cach u an toan (trai em) trong mot ky suy thoai hay khong. Phan tch nay co the nang len thanh nghe thuat neu giam oc tai chnh xac nh c phan phoi xac suat cua cac dong tien t do d kien trong mot ky suy thoai. Th du, neu cac giam oc cua AMAX, qua kinh nghiem trong qua kh, tin rang cac dong tien t do c phan phoi gan (xap x) chuan vi gia tr d kien trong ky suy thoai mot nam la 210 trieu o la va mot o lech chuan 140 trieu o la, ho co the tnh c xac suat can tien mat neu vay them n mi. Xac suat can tien mat bang vi xac suat ket thuc suy thoai vi so d tien mat b am. Phan phoi xac suat cua so d tien mat cua AMAX se co cung dang xap x chuan vi mot o lech chuan la 140 trieu o la vi phan phoi xac suat cua dong tien t do. Nhng co ieu phan phoi chuan cua dong tien t do se dch chuyen sang trai t mot gia tr trung bnh 210 trieu o la en mot gia tr trung bnh mi la 84 trieu o la [tc la so d tien mat au ky (154 trieu o la) cong vi cac dong tien t do (210 trieu o la) tr i cac chi ph tai chnh co nh tang 213 them (280 trieu o la)]. S dung mot phng trnh tng ng phng trnh 6.3, vi so d tien mat (CBR) la bien so cua tien lai thay v EBIT, so d tien mat bang 0$ la tng ng vi iem sau ay tren ng cong phan phoi chuan: z= 0$ 84.000.000$ = 0,6 140.000.000$ Ta co xac suat cua mot gia tr z bang hay t hn -0,60 la 27,43% (xem phu luc cuoi giao trnh). Nh vay, vi mot gia tang 280 trieu o la trong cac chi ph tai chnh co nh, xac suat AMAX can tien mat trong ky suy thoai mot nam vao khoang 27,43% (tc vung am trong o th 6.2) Giam oc tai chnh cua AMAX co the cam thay mc rui ro nh the la qua ln. Neu ho ch muon gia nh mot rui ro can tien mat la 5% trong ky suy thoai mot nam, ho co the nh so tien chi tra va quy hoan trai tang them (tc cac chi ph tai chnh co nh) mot cach an toan. Trc tien, chung ta tm cac con so cua o lech chuan (z) ve pha trai cua gia tr mong i se cho mot xac suat xay ra 5% trong phan uoi thap hn cua phan phoi (tc la vung in am trong o th 6.3). T phu luc cuoi giao trnh, ta tm c gia tr cua z la xap x -1,65. Ke tiep, chung ta tnh so d tien mat d kien can vao cuoi ky suy thoai mot nam neu rui ro can tien mat c gi mc 5%: (0$ CBR ) 140.000.000$ CBR = 231.000.000$ z = 1,65 = Cuoi cung, v giam oc tai chnh cua AMAX d kien bc vao ky suy thoai vi 154 trieu o la tien mat va phat sinh 210 trieu o la dong tien t do trong ky suy thoai mot nam, cong ty ch co the chap nhan them 133 trieu o la (tc 154 trieu + 210 trieu 231 trieu) cac chi ph tai chnh co nh. 214 S san long cua giam oc tai chnh chap nhan rui ro i kem vi can tien mat tuy thuoc vao nhieu yeu to, bao gom cac nguon quy co san t cac han mc tn dung cha thanh toan vi ngan hang, doanh so ban chng khoan dai han, co phan u ai va co phan thng mi, cac nguon quy co the co co cat giam chi tieu trong thi gian kinh doanh i xuong, giam co tc va ban bt tai san. Xac xuat xay ra = 140 trieu $ 5% -140 -140 0 140 280 420 560 So d tien mat (CBR)(trieu $) CB R o th 6.3. Cong ty AMAX: Phan phoi xac suat so d tien mat 6.2.3. Xac nh cau truc von da tren ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH: Cac phng phap phan tch truyen thong tren c phan tch nh lng thong qua o th se cho ngi ra quyet nh co cai nhn chien lc oi vi tai chnh cua doanh nghiep trong tng lai, trong phan tch EBIT EPS th oi tng phan tch la cac cong ty co phan co NE (so co phan thng cha chi tra tng ng cua phng an tai tr hoan toan bang von co phan) hay NDE (so co phan thng cha chi tra cua phng an tai tr co s dung on bay tai chnh). Tren thc te cac giam oc tai chnh tai cac doanh nghiep co the quyet nh cau truc von thch hp thong qua ch tieu ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH ma khong can thong qua NE va NDE. Cac gia nh can nghien cu nh sau: Ty le li nhuan trc thue va lai vay tren tong tai san la a%. Toan bo n la n vay, lai suat n vay doanh nghiep khi vay la b%. 215 Thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep la t% (tc li nhuan sau thue la (1-t%) x li nhuan trc thue). T nhng gia nh tren ta se phan tch e thay c anh hng cua c cau n trong tong tai san en ty suat li nhuan sau thue tren von chu s hu. Li nhuan trc thue + lai vay = a% x Tai san Li nhuan trc thue + b% x n = a% (n + Von chu s hu) Li nhuan trc thue = (a-b)% x n + a% x Von chu s hu Li nhuan sau thue= (1-t%) (a-b)% n + (1-t%) a% x Von chu s hu (1-t%) (a-b)% N Ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH = von chu s huu T cong thc tren va da vao phng trnh ke toan: TAI SAN = N PHAI TRA + VON CHU S HU Ta rut ra cac trng hp sau: (1) Neu a < b : Cang tang n th cang lam tang ty le n tren von chu s hu trong cung mot gia tr tai san, dan en giam ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu v a b la mot so am. (2) Neu a = b: Ty suat li tren von chu s hu = (1-t%)a% la mot ty le co nh, du ty le n va von chu s hu thay oi. (3) Neu a > b: Cang tang n th cang lam tang ty le n tren von chu s hu trong cung mot gia tr tai san, dan en tang ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu v a b la mot so dng. e lam ro cho cac trng hp nay, chung ta co the xem xet chung trong ieu kien c cho v du sau: Co so lieu chung cua 3 doanh nghiep A, B, C cung nganh nh sau: + (1-t%) a% 216 Tai lieu 1: Tong TS = 3.000 trieu ong, lai suat n vay dai han la 10%/nam (b%) Tai lieu 2: Gia s doanh nghiep A khong vay (VCSH = 3.000 trieu ong), doanh nghiep B vay 1.000 trieu ong (VCSH = 2.000 trieu ong) va doanh nghiep C vay 2.000 trieu ong (VCSH = 1.000 trieu ong). Tai lieu 3: Ch tieu LN trc thue va lai vay (trieu ong) Ty le LN trc thue va lai vay tren TS (a%) Trng hp 1 240 8% Trng hp 2 300 10% Trng hp 3 360 12% Sau ay ta se xem xet s thay doi cua ty suat li nhuan sau thue tren von chu s hu trong cac trng hp c cau von khac nhau: Trng hp 1 (a < b) Ch tieu DNA khong vay (VCSH =3.000) LN trc thue va lai vay Chi ph lai vay Li nhuan trc thue Thue thu nhap (TS t%= 28%) Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) 240 0 240 67,2 172,8 DNB vay 1000 DNC vay 2000 (VCSH =2.000) 240 100 140 39,2 100,8 (VCSH =1.000) 240 200 40 11,2 28,8 Ty suat LN/VCSH 5,76% 5,04% 2,88% Cang tang n cang lam giam ty suat LN/VCSH 217 Trng hp 2 (a = b) DNA khong vay (VCSH =3.000) LN trc thue va lai vay Chi ph lai vay Li nhuan trc thue Thue thu nhap (TS 28%) Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) 300 0 300 84 216 DNB vay 1000 DNC vay 2000 (VCSH =2.000) 300 100 200 56 144 (VCSH =1.000) 300 200 100 28 72 Ty suat LN/VCSH 7,2% 7,2% 7,2% Tang n khong lam thay oi ty suat LN/VCSH Trng hp 3 (a > b) DNA khong vay (VCSH =3.000) LN trc thue va lai vay Chi ph lai vay Li nhuan trc thue Thue thu nhap (thue suat 28%) Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) 360 0 360 100,8 259,2 DNB vay 1000 (VCSH =2.000) 360 100 260 72,8 187,2 DNC vay 2000 (VCSH =1.000) 360 200 160 44,8 115,2 Ty suat LN/VCSH 8,64% 9,36% 11,52% Cang tang n cang lam tang ty suat LN/VCSH 218 Nh vay tuy theo tnh hnh kinh doanh (bang cach so sanh a va b) ma cac nha quan ly co the quyet nh tang hoac giam n vay trong cau truc tai chnh cua doanh nghiep. e gia tang ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu. Ngoai ra khi so sanh 3 doanh nghiep tren ta gia s rang ca ba doanh nghiep cung co von la 3.000 trieu ong nhng cach s dung von cua moi doanh nghiep la khac nhau. Doanh nghiep B va C co vay se s dung phan von chu s hu con lai au t vao mot c hoi khac. Trong ieu kien kinh doanh thuan li (trng hp 3) cang tang n vay trong c cau tai san se cang lam tang ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu, chng to von chu s hu c s dung co hieu qua. Neu trong c cau n co mot phan khong phai n vay ma la n chiem dung c cua doanh nghiep khac (khong phai tra lai) th lai n vay se giam bt va li nhuan trc thue cung nh sau thue se tang len tng ng, dan en ty suat li nhuan tren von chu s hu se cao hn trng hp n hoan toan la n vay. 219 PHAN BAI TAP 220 Bai tap 1 Phan tch hoan thanh ke hoach khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep cho san xuat san pham cua doanh nghiep, biet rang doanh nghiep san xuat duy nhat mot loai san pham. Ch tieu - Khoi lng san pham hang hoa - Chi ph nhan cong trc tiep cho n v thi gian lao ong - Lng thi gian lao ong hao ph cho 1 n v san pham n v tnh Tan 1.000 Gi/tan Ky hieu q n u Ke hoach 80 20 120 Thc hien 100 20 115 Bai tap 2 1) Co tai lieu ve doanh thu va chi ph hoat ong tai mot doanh n v tnh: trieu ong Ky kinh doanh 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Yeu cau: a) Phan tch c cau chi ph hoat ong (bat bien, kha bien) cua doanh nghiep. 221 nghiep qua 10 thang (10 ky) tai mot doanh nghiep sau: Doanh thu ban hang 1.246 1.589 1.895 2.040 2.350 2.621 2.890 3.190 3.598 3.950 Chi ph hoat ong 234 256 384 410 424 434 450 460 470 490 b) Da vao phng trnh hoi quy tm c, d bao chi ph hoat ong 2 thang con lai cua nam mc doanh thu 4.500 va 4.600 trieu ong. Bai tap 3 Co tnh hnh ve nguyen vat lieu s dung e san xuat 3 loai san pham A, B, C tai mot doanh nghiep sau: Khoi lng san pham Ten san pham san xuat (tan) Ke hoach Article III. A Thc te a 500 550 b c a 460 300 450 320 c b d Loai nguyen vat lieu Ke hoach 46 22 30 46 30 22 35 n gia nguyen vat lieu (1.000 /kg) te 42 25 35 42 35 25 32 Tieu hao nguyen vat lieu cho san xuat 1 n v SP (kg) Ke Thc te 17 16 11 18 17 28 20 Thc Article II. hoach 18 15 13 20 15 30 18 B C Yeu cau: a) Phan tch chung tnh hnh hoan thanh ke hoach chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep. b) Phan tch cac nhan to anh hng en chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep cua doanh nghiep. c) Da vao ket qua phan tch tai cau b, hay cho biet neu doanh nghiep tang lng san xuat san lng san pham A th co li cho doanh nghiep khong. 222 Bai tap 4 Co so lieu ve tnh hnh san xuat va s dung lao ong cua mot doanh nghiep sau: Khoan muc - Gia tr san lng hang hoa (trieu ong) - Tong so cong nhan san xuat (ngi) Trong o: + Cong nhan san xuat chnh + Cong nhan san xuat phu - Tien lng bnh quan (1.000) Trong o: + Cong nhan san xuat chnh + Cong nhan san xuat phu 1) Yeu cau: Ke hoach Thc te (a) 17.500 560 336 224 835 950 720 (b) 21.500 650 455 195 850 950 750 a) Phan tch chung bien ong tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep. b) Phan tch cac nhan to anh hng en tong chi ph nhan cong trc tiep cua doanh nghiep. Bai tap 5 Cho tai lieu ve tnh hnh san xuat san pham cua mot doanh nghiep sau: Ten san pham A B C Yeu cau: a) Phan tch tnh hnh hoan thanh ke hoach ha gia thanh san pham so sanh c. b) Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 doanh thu hang hoa ban ra. Khoi lng san xuat (tan) KH 100 500 300 TH 110 600 290 Gia ban (1.000) Gia thanh n v KH 50 30 40 TH 51 32 38 Ky trc 20 10 20 KH 20 9 18 (.1000) TH 19 8 20 223 Bai tap 6 Phan tch ch tieu chi ph cho 1.000 doanh thu tieu thu cua mot doanh nghiep theo tai lieu sau: Ten san pham A B C Khoi lng san pham san xuat (cai) KH 2.000 4.000 3.500 TH 2.100 5.000 3.300 Gia ban (1.000) KH 50 30 60 TH 55 35 55 Gia thanh n v san pham (1.000) KH 20 9 32 TH 19 9 30 Bai tap 7 Co so ieu quan sat ve tnh hnh thc hien khoi lng hang ban, n gia ban va chi ph quang cao c thu thap tai mot doanh nghiep nh sau: Khoi lng hang ban Ky (thang) 01/2006 02/2006 03/2006 04/2006 05/2006 06/2006 07/2006 08/2006 09/2006 Yeu cau: Tm phng trnh hoi quy the hien moi quan he cua khoi lng hang ban oi vi gia ban va chi ph quang cao cua doanh nghiep. (san pham) Gia ban (1000 ong) Chi ph quang cao (1000 ong) Y 2011 3775 3120 1442 1867 2094 3240 2182 2349 X1 41 37 44 49 49 52 32 42 48 X2 2361 3533 3401 2323 2515 2837 3179 2535 2910 224 Bai tap 8 Co tai lieu phan anh tnh hnh tieu thu va chi ph cua doanh nghiep sau: Ten san pham Khoi lng san pham hang hoa (hien vat) KH A B C 300 500 700 TH 320 650 650 KH 100 50 20 TH 95 55 22 n gia ban (1.000) Giam gia hang ban (1.000/sp) KH 1 2 0,5 TH 1,5 2,5 1 Chiet khau hang ban (1.000/sp) KH 0 0,5 TH 0,5 1 Chi ph ban Gia von n v (1.000) hang va QLDN (1.000/sp) KH 50 30 10 TH 55 25 12 KH 3 4 1 TH 3,5 3,5 0,8 Yeu cau: Phan tch tnh hnh thc hien ke hoach ve Li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep va cho biet cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan o nh the nao? (Can chu y en nhng nhan to co quan he cung chieu, lai co nhng nhan to co quan he ngc chieu vi ch tieu li nhuan). Bai tap 9 Co so lieu thu thap t bang bao cao thu nhap va bang can oi ke toan tai mot doanh nghiep sau: Bao cao thu nhap rut gon (n v tnh: trieu ong): Khoan muc Doanh thu Gia von hang ban Lai gop Chi ph ban hang Chi ph quan ly doanh nghiep Li nhuan trc thue Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (32%) Nam trc 51.000 38.250 12.750 5.100 2.550 5.100 1.632 Nam nay 52.500 39.862 12.638 5.314 2.986 4.338 1.388 225 Li nhuan sau thue (lai rong) Tra co tc Li nhuan gi lai 3.468 3.118 350 2.950 2.000 950 Bang can oi ke toan rut gon (n v tnh: trieu ong): Khoan muc Tien mat Tai quy Gi ngan hang Phai thu Khach hang Khac Hang ton kho Tai san co nh (rong) Nguyen gia Khau hao (luy ke) au ky 510 120 390 1.273 1.105 168 3.100 12.040 13.500 (1.460) Cuoi ky 310 80 230 1.704 1.644 60 2.938 11.940 14.000 (2.060) Tong tai san N ngan han Vay ngan han Phai tra ngi ban Phai tra khac Ni dai han Nguon von chu s hu Nguon von kinh doanh (von gop) Li nhuan gi lai 16.923 1.043 400 600 43 5.530 10.350 10.000 350 16.892 1.301 420 700 181 4.291 11.300 10.000 1.300 Tong nguon von 16.923 16.892 226 Yeu cau: a) Lap bang bao cao dong tien (bao cao lu chuyen tien te) vao cuoi nam nay theo hai phng phap: gian tiep va trc tiep. b) Phan tch bao cao dong tien va lap c. Bai tap 10 Da vao bang can oi ke toan va bao cao thu nhap cua cong ty VDEC cuoi nam 2004 (bang 5.10 va 5.11 chng 5). Tnh: a) S o Dupont cua cong ty VDEC nam 2004. b) Da vao s o Dupont va tm c, anh gia tnh hnh tai chnh cua cong ty nay vao cuoi nam 2004. Bai tap 11 The hien s tac ong t cac nghiep vu kinh te c liet ke di ay oi vi tai san lu ong, ty so thanh toan hien hanh, va li nhuan rong. S dung dau (+) e the hien s gia tang hoac dau (-) e the hien s sut giam va (0) e the hien s khong thay oi hoac khong xac nh c. Hay t at mot so gia nh can thiet va xem nh ty so thanh toan hien hanh ban au la so ln hn 1,0. (Lu y: ban can co mot nen tang kien thc ke toan tot e co the tra li cac cau hoi di ay, con neu khong ban ch tra li cho nhng cau hoi ma ban co the giai quyet) Tong tai san lu ong a- Tien mat gia tang thong qua phat hanh cac co phan thng bo sung b- Hang hoa c ban va thu bang tien mat c- Thanh toan khoan n thue thu nhap doanh nghiep cua nam trc d- Ban tai san co nh thap hn gia tr so sach Ty so thanh toan hien hanh Li nhuan rong 227 e- Tai san co nh c ban cao hn gia tr so sach f- Hang hoa c ban va a vao khoan phai thu g- Thanh toan cac khoan n tn dung thng mai cho hang hoa c mua trc o. h- Co tc tien mat c thong bao va chi tra i- Tien mat gia tang thong qua vay n ngan han ngan hang j- Chiet khau giay nhan n ngan han k- Chng khoan ngan han c ban vi mc chi ph thap l- Tam ng cho cong nhan vien m. Chi ph hoat ong trong ky c chi tra n. Phat hanh lenh phieu en cac nha cung cap tn dung thng mai thay v a vao khoan phai tra. o. Phat hanh trai phieu 10 nam e thanh toan cho cac khoan phai tra p. Mot tai san co nh a c khau hao het ngng s dung q. Khoan phai thu c khach hang thanh toan r. Mua sam cac thiet b bang viec phat hanh cac giay nhan n ngan han s. Hang hoa c mua bang tn dung thng mai t. Thue d kien phai tra gia tang 228 Bai tap 12 Cac cau hoi di ay ung ung hay sai? a. Ty so n tren von co phan cua mot cong ty luon luon ln hn 1 b. Ty so thanh toan nhanh th luon nho hn ty so thanh toan hien hanh. c. Ty suat sinh li tren von co phan th luon nho hn ty suat sinh li tren tong tai san. d. Mot chien dch quang cao quan trong c thc hien bi mot cong ty my pham se co khuynh hng lam giam thu nhap va nguyen nhan dan en cac co phan c ban mc gia P/E thap. Bai tap 13 Trong moi trng hp di ay, hay giai thch ngan gon cong ty nao trong 2 cong ty c liet ke dng nh co ac iem la at gia tr cao hn oi vi moi ch tieu: a. Ty so n tren von co phan: cong ty tau bien va cong ty phan mem may vi tnh. b. Ty le chi tra co tc: cong ty thc pham va cong ty o hoa may vi tnh. c. Ky thu tien bnh quan: he thong sieu th va cong ty ban hang qua th at hang. d. Ty so gia th trng tren thu nhap P/E: Cong ty nao vet bun va cong ty ien t. Bai tap 14 Cong ty H.R.Pickett hien ang co 500.000 $ n va chi ph tra lai vay hang nam la 10%. Doanh so ban hang nam cua cong ty la 2 trieu $, thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep la 30% va ty suat li nhuan tren doanh thu la 5%. Neu cong ty khong the duy tr ty so kha nang thanh toan lai vay t nhat la 5 lan th ngan hang cua cong ty se t choi nhng khoan vay mi va doanh nghiep se lam vao tnh the pha san. Hoi ty so kha nang thanh toan lai vay cua cong ty la bao nhieu? 229 Bai tap 15 Cong ty Midwest Packaging hien ang co ty so ROE mc thap nhat la 3%, nhng ban quan tr cua cong ty hien ang thc hien mot ke hoach kinh doanh mi nham cai thien ieu nay. Ke hoach mi se huy ong tong n vay chiem ty le 60% va do o chi ph tra lai vay se la 300.000 $ mot nam. Ban quan tr cua cong ty d kien thu nhap EBIT la 1.000.000 $ ng vi mc doanh so la 10.000.000 $ va hieu suat s dung tong tai san la 2,0. Gia nh thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep la 34%. Hoi neu thc hien ke hoach kinh doanh mi th ty so ROE cua cong ty se c cai thien la bao nhieu? Bai tap 16 Cong ty Central City Construction va c thanh lap va co nhu cau au t von vao tong tai san la 1 trieu $, va cong ty mong i se co ty so EBIT/ tong tai san la 20%. Cong ty se khong au t vao cac chng khoan do o tat ca thu nhap cua cong ty eu la thu nhap t hoat ong. Va neu vay cong ty co the tai tr bang n vay len en 50% tren tong tai san va n vay co lai suat la 8%. Gia nh thue suat thue thu nhap doanh nghiep la 40%, hoi s khac biet ROE d kien gia phng an cong ty tai tr 50% n vay va phng an cong ty tai tr 100% von co phan thng? Bai tap 17 Co so lieu ve tnh hnh tai chnh cua doanh nghiep tai 3 nam nh sau: Tong tai san = 20.000 trieu ong, lai suat n vay dai han la 12%/nam (b%). Cac tai lieu khac qua 3 nam: (n v tnh: trieu ong) Nam tai chnh Von vay Von chu s hu Li nhuan trc thue va lai vay Thue suat thue thu nhap DN Nam 2003 5.000 15.000 1.500 28% Nam 2004 10.000 10.000 1.700 28% Nam 2005 15.000 5.000 2.400 28% 230 Yeu cau: a) Phan tch cau truc von cua doanh nghiep qua 3 nam tai chnh. b) Hay xep hang cau truc von t tot en xau dan va chng minh. c) Trong nam 2006, ong giam oc tai chnh cua doanh nghiep d bao li nhuan trc thue va lai vay khong oi so vi nam 2005, nen a quyet nh giam nguon von vay xuong con 12.000 v cho rang se lam giam hieu qua s dung von cua doanh nghiep. Vi cac ieu kien khac khong oi, hay nhan xet ve quyet nh cua giam oc tai chnh va chng minh bang so lieu. 231 Phu luc: Bang phan phoi chuan Z* 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 1,10 1,20 1,30 1,40 1,50 1,60 1,70 1,80 1,90 2,00 2,20 2,40 2,60 2,80 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 5,00 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09 0,5000 0,4960 0,4920 0,4880 0,4840 0,4801 0,4761 0,4721 0,4681 0,4641 0,4602 0,4562 0,4522 0,4483 0,4443 0,4404 0,4364 0,4325 0,4286 0,4247 0,4207 0,4168 0,4129 0,4090 0,4052 0,4013 0,3974 0,3936 0,3897 0,3859 0,3821 0,3783 0,3745 0,3707 0,3669 0,3632 0,3594 0,3557 0,3520 0,3483 0,3446 0,3409 0,3372 0,3336 0,3300 0,3264 0,3228 0,3192 0,3156 0,3121 0,3085 0,3050 0,3015 0,2981 0,2946 0,2912 0,2877 0,2843 0,2810 0,2776 0,2743 0,2709 0,2676 0,2643 0,2611 0,2578 0,2546 0,2514 0,2483 0,2451 0,2420 0,2389 0,2358 0,2327 0,2296 0,2266 0,2236 0,2206 0,2177 0,2148 0,2119 0,2090 0,2061 0,2033 0,2005 0,1977 0,1949 0,1922 0,1894 0,1867 0,1841 0,1814 0,1788 0,1762 0,1736 0,1711 0,1685 0,1660 0,1635 0,1611 0,1587 0,1562 0,1539 0,1515 0,1492 0,1469 0,1446 0,1423 0,1401 0,1379 0,1357 0,1335 0,1314 0,1292 0,1271 0,1251 0,1230 0,1210 0,1190 0,1170 0,1151 0,1131 0,1112 0,1093 0,1075 0,1056 0,1038 0,1020 0,1003 0,0985 0,0968 0,0951 0,0934 0,0918 0,0901 0,0885 0,0869 0,0853 0,0838 0,0823 0,0808 0,0793 0,0778 0,0764 0,0749 0,0735 0,0721 0,0708 0,0694 0,0681 0,0668 0,0655 0,0643 0,0630 0,0618 0,0606 0,0594 0,0582 0,0571 0,0559 0,0548 0,0537 0,0526 0,0516 0,0505 0,0495 0,0485 0,0475 0,0465 0,0455 0,0446 0,0436 0,0427 0,0418 0,0409 0,0401 0,0446 0,0392 0,0384 0,0375 0,0359 0,0351 0,0344 0,0336 0,0329 0,0322 0,0314 0,0307 0,0301 0,0294 0,0287 0,0281 0,0274 0,0268 0,0262 0,0256 0,0250 0,0244 0,0239 0,0233 0,0228 0,0222 0,0217 0,0212 0,0207 0,0202 0,0197 0,0192 0,0188 0,0183 0,0139 0,0136 0,0132 0,0129 0,0125 0,0122 0,0119 0,0116 0,0113 0,0110 0,0082 0,0080 0,0078 0,0075 0,0073 0,0071 0,0069 0,0068 0,0066 0,0064 0,0047 0,0045 0,0044 0,0043 0,0041 0,0040 0,0039 0,0038 0,0037 0,0036 0,0026 0,0025 0,0024 0,0023 0,0023 0,0022 0,0021 0,0021 0,0020 0,0019 0,0013 0,0013 0,0013 0,0012 0,0012 0,0011 0,0011 0,0011 0,0010 0,0010 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0002 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 Z*: la gia tr tuyet oi cua z. 232 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Tai lieu trong nc: 1. TS.Pham Van Dc ang Kim Cng, Phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh (2005), NXB Tong Hp TP.HCM. 2. Ths.Nguyen Tan Bnh, Phan tch hoat ong doanh nghiep (2000), NXB ai hoc quoc gia TP.HCM. 3. PGS.TS. Tran Ngoc Th (chu bien), Tai chnh doanh nghiep hien ai (2005), NXB Thong ke. 4. PGS.TS.Nguyen Nang Phuc, Phan tch kinh te doanh nghiep (2004), NXB Tai chnh. Tai lieu nc ngoai: 5. Myers, Brealey (2000), Principles of Corporate Finance Sixth Edition, McGraw Hill. 6. Gerald I.White (1997), The Analysis and use of Financial statements, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 7. Wayne J.Morse - James R.Davis - Hartgraves, Management Accounting (1991), Addision Wesley. 233 MUC LUC CHNG 1................................................................................................................... 2 TONG QUAT VE PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH................. 2 1.1. NOI DUNG PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH ..................................... 2 Khai niem .................................................................................................................... 2 oi tng cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh........................................................ 3 Nhiem vu cu the cua phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh ............................................ 4 1.2. CAC PHNG PHAP S DUNG TRONG PHAN TCH .................................... 5 Phng phap so sanh .................................................................................................. 5 Phng phap thay the lien hoan ................................................................................ 9 Phng phap so chenh lech ..................................................................................... 13 Phng phap lien he can oi .................................................................................... 14 Phng phap hoi quy ................................................................................................ 16 1.3. TO CHC THC HIEN PHAN TCH HOAT ONG KINH DOANH ............. 34 Phan loai cac loai hnh phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh. ...................................... 35 To chc phan tch hoat ong kinh doanh trong doanh nghiep. ............................. 36 CHNG 2 ................................................................................................................ 40 PHAN TCH CHI PH VA GIA THANH ........................................................ 40 2.1. PHAN LOAI CHI PH ........................................................................................... 40 Phan loai chung ......................................................................................................... 40 Phan loai theo ke toan quan tr ............................................................................... 42 2.2. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN CHI PH .............................. 46 Tong mc chi ph thc hien...................................................................................... 46 Ty suat chi ph ........................................................................................................... 46 Tiet kiem chi ph ....................................................................................................... 47 2.3. PHAN TCH CAC KHOAN MUC CHI PH CHU YEU .................................... 48 Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nguyen vat lieu trc tiep. ........................................ 49 Phan tch khoan muc chi ph nhan cong trc tiep. ................................................ 53 D bao chi ph san xuat chung bang hoi quy n ................................................... 57 2.4. PHAN TCH BIEN ONG GIA THANH ............................................................ 60 Phan tch bien ong gia thanh n v ...................................................................... 60 Phan tch bien ong tong gia thanh san pham so sanh c ................................. 62 Phan tch chi ph tren 1.000 ong san pham ban ra ............................................... 67 CHNG 3 ................................................................................................................ 73 PHAN TCH TNH HNH TIEU THU.............................................................. 73 3.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG VE TNH HNH TIEU THU HANG HOA .................... 73 Y ngha va nhiem vu phan tch ................................................................................ 73 234 Phan tch khai quat ................................................................................................... 74 Phan tch bo phan ..................................................................................................... 76 3.2. NGUYEN NHAN ANH HNG EN TNH HNH TIEU THU....................... 78 Nguyen nhan chu quan ............................................................................................. 79 Nguyen nhan khach quan ......................................................................................... 82 3.3. D BAO LNG TIEU THU VI PHNG PHAP HOI QUY A BIEN...... 89 Khai quat ................................................................................................................... 89 nh dang phng trnh the hien moi quan he ...................................................... 90 Thu thap d lieu va tnh toan nhng gia tr thong ke ac trng .......................... 91 Thc hien hoi quy ..................................................................................................... 94 D bao vi mo hnh hoi quy ..................................................................................... 99 CHNG 4 .............................................................................................................. 101 PHAN TCH LI NHUAN ................................................................................. 101 4.1. PHAN TCH CHUNG TNH HNH THC HIEN LI NHUAN ..................... 101 Muc tieu cua doanh nghiep .................................................................................... 101 Y ngha cua li nhuan ............................................................................................. 101 Ch tieu thc hien ................................................................................................... 101 Ch tieu quan he ...................................................................................................... 102 4.2. LI NHUAN TRONG MOI QUAN HE VI DOANH THU VA CHI PH ...... 102 Yeu to khoi lng san pham .................................................................................. 104 Yeu to chi ph bat bien ........................................................................................... 105 Yeu to chi ph kha bien .......................................................................................... 106 Yeu to gia ban ......................................................................................................... 106 Yeu to tong hp ...................................................................................................... 107 4.3. PHAN TCH LI NHUAN THUAN T HOAT ONG KINH DOANH ......... 108 Phan tch li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh....................................................... 108 Phan tch cac nhan to tac ong en li nhuan t hoat ong kinh doanh ........... 111 CHNG 5............................................................................................................... 118 PHAN TCH TAI CHNH ................................................................................... 118 5.1. KHAI QUAT VE BAO CAO TAI CHNH ........................................................ 118 Khai niem ve bao cao tai chnh ............................................................................. 118 Muc ch bao cao tai chnh .................................................................................... 118 oi tng cua bao cao tai chnh ............................................................................ 119 Nguyen tac lap bao cao tai chnh .......................................................................... 121 5.2. PHAN TCH CAC TY SO TAI CHNH ............................................................. 132 Muc ch phan tch cac ty so tai chnh .................................................................. 132 Cac ty so tai chnh .................................................................................................. 133 Phng phap anh gia cac ty so tai chnh............................................................. 148 Mot so van e gap phai khi phan tch ty so tai chnh .......................................... 154 5.3. PHAN TCH BAO CAO DONG TIEN ............................................................... 155 235 Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc quoc te ve ke toan International Accounting Standards) ........................................................................................... 155 Lap bao cao dong tien (theo chuan mc KTVN VAS) ..................................... 174 Phng phap phan tch bao cao dong tien ............................................................ 189 CHNG 6 .............................................................................................................. 194 PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON ........................................................................ 194 6.1. CAC QUYET NH CAU TRUC VON ............................................................. 194 Khai niem ................................................................................................................ 194 Cau truc von toi u ................................................................................................. 195 Cac gia nh cua phan tch cau truc von .............................................................. 195 Cac yeu to khac can xem xet trong quyet nh cau truc von ............................. 196 6.2. PHAN TCH CAU TRUC VON .......................................................................... 202 Phan tch EBIT - EPS ............................................................................................. 202 Phan tch mat kha nang chi tra tien mat .............................................................. 211 Xac nh cau truc von da tren ty suat li nhuan tren von CSH: ..................... 215 PHAN BAI TAP .................................................................................................... 220 236 ... View Full Document

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