9
Net Chapter Present Value and
Other Investment
Criteria
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Concepts and Skills
Be able to compute payback and discounted
payback and understand their shortcomings
Understand accounting rates of return and
their shortcomings
Be able to compute internal rates of return
(standard and modified) and understand their
strengths and weaknesses
Be able to compute the net present value and
understand why it is the best decision
criterion
Be able to compute the profitability index and
understand its relation to net present value
9-2
Chapter Outline
Net Present Value
The Payback Rule
The Discounted Payback
The Average Accounting Return
The Internal Rate of Return
The Profitability Index
The Practice of Capital Budgeting
9-3
Good Decision Criteria
We need to ask ourselves the
following questions when evaluating
capital budgeting decision rules:
Does the decision rule adjust for the
time value of money?
Does the decision rule adjust for risk?
Does the decision rule provide
information on whether we are creating
value for the firm?
9-4
Net Present Value
The difference between the market value
of a project and its cost
How much value is created from
undertaking an investment?
The first step is to estimate the expected
future cash flows.
The second step is to estimate the required
return for projects of this risk level.
The third step is to find the present value of
the cash flows and subtract the initial
investment.
9-5
Project Example Information
You are reviewing a new project and have
estimated the following cash flows:
Year 0: CF = -165,000
Year 1: CF = 63,120; NI = 13,620
Year 2: CF = 70,800; NI = 3,300
Year 3: CF = 91,080; NI = 29,100
Average Book Value = 72,000
Your required return for assets of this risk
level is 12%.
9-6
NPV Decision Rule
If the NPV is positive, accept the
project
A positive NPV means that the project is
expected to add value to the firm and will
therefore increase the wealth of the
owners.
Since our goal is to increase owner
wealth, NPV is a direct measure of how
well this project will meet our goal.
9-7
Computing NPV for the
Project
Using the formulas:
NPV = -165,000 + 63,120/(1.12) + 70,800/
(1.12)2 + 91,080/(1.12)3 = 12,627.41
Using the calculator:
CF0 = -165,000; C01 = 63,120; F01 = 1; C02 =
70,800; F02 = 1; C03 = 91,080; F03 = 1; NPV;
I = 12; CPT NPV = 12,627.41
Do we accept or reject the project?
9-8
Decision Criteria Test - NPV
Does the NPV rule account for the time
value of money?
Does the NPV rule account for the risk of
the cash flows?
Does the NPV rule provide an indication
about the increase in value?
Should we consider the NPV rule for our
primary decision rule?
9-9
Calculating NPVs with a
Spreadsheet
Spreadsheets are an excellent way to
compute NPVs, especially when you have to
compute the cash flows as well.
Using the NPV function
The first component is the required return
entered as a decimal
The second component is the range of cash
flows beginning with year 1
Subtract the initial investment after computing the
NPV
9-10
Payback Period
How long does it take to get the initial cost
back in a nominal sense?
Computation
Estimate the cash flows
Subtract the future cash flows from the initial
cost until the initial investment has been
recovered
Decision Rule Accept if the payback
period is less than some preset limit
9-11
Computing Payback for the
Project
Assume we will accept the project if it
pays back within two years.
Year 1: 165,000 63,120 = 101,880 still to
recover
Year 2: 101,880 70,800 = 31,080 still to
recover
Year 3: 31,080 91,080 = -60,000 project
pays back in year 3
Do we accept or reject the project?
9-12
Decision Criteria Test Payback
Does the payback rule account for the
time value of money?
Does the payback rule account for the risk
of the cash flows?
Does the payback rule provide an
indication about the increase in value?
Should we consider the payback rule for
our primary decision rule?
9-13
Advantages and
Disadvantages of Payback
Advantages
Easy to understand
Adjusts for
uncertainty of later
cash flows
Biased toward
liquidity
Disadvantages
Ignores the time
value of money
Requires an
arbitrary cutoff point
Ignores cash flows
beyond the cutoff
date
Biased against
long-term projects,
such as research
and development,
and new projects
9-14
Discounted Payback Period
Compute the present value of each cash
flow and then determine how long it takes
to pay back on a discounted basis
Compare to a specified required period
Decision Rule - Accept the project if it
pays back on a discounted basis within
the specified time
9-15
Computing Discounted Payback
for the Project
Assume we will accept the project if it pays back
on a discounted basis in 2 years.
Compute the PV for each cash flow and
determine the payback period using discounted
cash flows
Year 1: 165,000 63,120/1.121 = 108,643
Year 2: 108,643 70,800/1.122 = 52,202
Year 3: 52,202 91,080/1.123 = -12,627 project pays
back in year 3
Do we accept or reject the project?
9-16
Decision Criteria Test
Discounted Payback
Does the discounted payback rule account for the
time value of money?
Does the discounted payback rule account for the
risk of the cash flows?
Does the discounted payback rule provide an
indication about the increase in value?
Should we consider the discounted payback rule
for our primary decision rule?
9-17
Advantages and Disadvantages
of Discounted Payback
Advantages
Includes time value
of money
Easy to understand
Does not accept
negative estimated
NPV investments
when all future
cash flows are
positive
Biased towards
liquidity
Disadvantages
May reject positive
NPV investments
Requires an
arbitrary cutoff
point
Ignores cash flows
beyond the cutoff
point
Biased against
long-term projects,
such as R&D and
new products
9-18
Internal Rate of Return
This is the most important alternative
to NPV
It is often used in practice and is
intuitively appealing
It is based entirely on the estimated
cash flows and is independent of
interest rates found elsewhere
9-19
IRR Definition and
Decision Rule
Definition: IRR is the return that makes the
NPV = 0
Decision Rule: Accept the project if the
IRR is greater than the required return
9-20
Computing IRR for the
Project
If you do not have a financial calculator,
then this becomes a trial and error
process
Calculator
Enter the cash flows as you did with NPV
Press IRR and then CPT
IRR = 16.13% > 12% required return
Do we accept or reject the project?
9-21
NPV Profile for the Project
70,000
IRR = 16.13%
60,000
50,000
NPV
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000 0
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
0.1
0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18
0.2
0.22
-20,000
Discount Rate
9-22
Decision Criteria Test - IRR
Does the IRR rule account for the time
value of money?
Does the IRR rule account for the risk of
the cash flows?
Does the IRR rule provide an indication
about the increase in value?
Should we consider the IRR rule for our
primary decision criteria?
9-23
Advantages IRR
of Knowing a return is intuitively appealing
It is a simple way to communicate the
value of a project to someone who doesnt
know all the estimation details
If the IRR is high enough, you may not
need to estimate a required return, which
is often a difficult task
9-24
Calculating IRRs With A
Spreadsheet
You start with the cash flows the same as
you did for the NPV
You use the IRR function
You first enter your range of cash flows,
beginning with the initial cash flow
You can enter a guess, but it is not necessary
The default format is a whole percent you will
normally want to increase the decimal places to
at least two
9-25
NPV vs. IRR
NPV and IRR will generally give us
the same decision
Exceptions
Nonconventional cash flows cash flow
signs change more than once
Mutually exclusive projects
Initial investments are substantially different
(issue of scale)
Timing of cash flows is substantially
different
9-26
IRR and Nonconventional
Cash Flows
When the cash flows change sign more
than once, there is more than one IRR
When you solve for IRR you are solving for
the root of an equation, and when you
cross the x-axis more than once, there will
be more than one return that solves the
equation
If you have more than one IRR, which one
do you use to make your decision?
9-27
Another Example
Nonconventional Cash Flows
Suppose an investment will cost $90,000
initially and will generate the following
cash flows:
Year 1: 132,000
Year 2: 100,000
Year 3: -150,000
The required return is 15%.
Should we accept or reject the project?
9-28
NPV Profile
IRR = 10.11% and 42.66%
$4,000.00
$2,000.00
NPV
$0.00
($2,000.00)
0
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55
($4,000.00)
($6,000.00)
($8,000.00)
($10,000.00)
Discount Rate
9-29
Summary of Decision Rules
The NPV is positive at a required
return of 15%, so you should Accept
If you use the financial calculator,
you would get an IRR of 10.11%
which would tell you to Reject
You need to recognize that there are
non-conventional cash flows and
look at the NPV profile
9-30
IRR and Mutually Exclusive
Projects
Mutually exclusive projects
If you choose one, you cant choose the other
Example: You can choose to attend graduate
school at either Harvard or Stanford, but not
both
Intuitively, you would use the following
decision rules:
NPV choose the project with the higher NPV
IRR choose the project with the higher IRR
9-31
Example With Mutually
Exclusive Projects
Period
Project
A
Project
B
0
-500
-400
1
325
325
2
325
200
IRR
19.43%
22.17%
NPV
64.05
60.74
The required return
for both projects is
10%.
Which project
should you accept
and why?
9-32
NPV Profiles
IRR for A = 19.43%
$160.00
IRR for B = 22.17%
$140.00
$120.00
Crossover Point = 11.8%
NPV
$100.00
$80.00
A
B
$60.00
$40.00
$20.00
$0.00
($20.00) 0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
($40.00)
Discount Rate
9-33
To Find the Crossover Rate
1.Find cash flow differences between the
projects.
2.Enter these differences in CFLO register,
then press IRR.
3.Can subtract one project from another, but
better to have first CF negative.
4.If profiles dont cross, one project
dominates the other.
ReasonswhyNPVprofiles
cross
Size(scale)differencesthesmaller
projectfreesupfundsatt=0for
investment.Thehighertheopportunity
cost,themorevaluablethesefunds,so
highrfavorssmallprojects.
Timingdifferencestheprojectwith
fasterpaybackprovidesmoreCFinearly
yearsforreinvestment.Ifrishigh,early
CFespeciallygood,NPVS>NPVL.
Conflicts Between NPV and
IRR
NPV directly measures the increase in
value to the firm
Whenever there is a conflict between NPV
and another decision rule, you should
always use NPV
IRR is unreliable in the following situations
Nonconventional cash flows
Mutually exclusive projects
9-36
Modified IRR
Calculate the net present value of all
cash outflows using the borrowing
rate.
Calculate the net future value of all
cash inflows using the investing
rate.
Find the rate of return that equates
these values.
Benefits: single answer and specific
rates for borrowing and
reinvestment
9-37
Profitability Index
Measures the benefit per unit cost,
based on the time value of money
A profitability index of 1.1 implies that
for every $1 of investment, we create
an additional $0.10 in value
This measure can be very useful in
situations in which we have limited
capital
9-38
Advantages and Disadvantages
of Profitability Index
Advantages
Disadvantages
Closely related to
May lead to
NPV, generally
incorrect decisions
leading to identical
in comparisons of
decisions
mutually exclusive
investments
Easy to understand
and communicate
May be useful when
available investment
funds are limited
9-39
Capital Budgeting In
Practice
We should consider several
investment criteria when making
decisions
NPV and IRR are the most
commonly used primary investment
criteria
Payback is a commonly used
secondary investment criteria
9-40
Summary DCF Criteria
Net present value
Difference between market value and cost
Take the project if the NPV is positive
Has no serious problems
Preferred decision criterion
Internal rate of return
Discount rate that makes NPV = 0
Take the project if the IRR is greater than the required return
Same decision as NPV with conventional cash flows
IRR is unreliable with nonconventional cash flows or mutually
exclusive projects
Profitability Index
Benefit-cost ratio
Take investment if PI > 1
Cannot be used to rank mutually exclusive projects
May be used to rank projects in the presence of capital
rationing
9-41
Quick Quiz
Consider an investment that costs
$100,000 and has a cash inflow of $25,000
every year for 5 years. The required return
is 9%, and required payback is 4 years.
What is the payback period?
What is the discounted payback period?
What is the NPV?
What is the IRR?
Should we accept the project?
What decision rule should be the primary
decision method?
When is the IRR rule unreliable?
9-42
Ethics Issues
An ABC poll in the spring of 2004 found that onethird of students age 12 17 admitted to cheating
and the percentage increased as the students got
older and felt more grade pressure. If a book
entitled How to Cheat: A Users Guide would
generate a positive NPV, would it be proper for a
publishing company to offer the new book?
Should a firm exceed the minimum legal limits of
government imposed environmental regulations
and be responsible for the environment, even if this
responsibility leads to a wealth reduction for the
firm? Is environmental damage merely a cost of
doing business?
Should municipalities offer monetary incentives to
induce firms to relocate to their areas?
9-43
Comprehensive Problem
An investment project has the following
cash flows: CF0 = -1,000,000; C01 C08 =
200,000 each
If the required rate of return is 12%, what
decision should be made using NPV?
How would the IRR decision rule be used
for this project, and what decision would be
reached?
How are the above two decisions related?
9-44
See additional in class problems in
pdf file posted under lectures