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SCM303 Chapter 3 Slides

Course: SCM 303, Fall 2011
School: Michigan State University
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Processes Managing and Capabilities 1 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 What is a process? A system of structured activities that use resources to turn inputs into valuable outputs. Process thinking views activities in an organization as a collection of processes 2 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Managers Deal With Many Processes...

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Processes Managing and Capabilities 1 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 What is a process? A system of structured activities that use resources to turn inputs into valuable outputs. Process thinking views activities in an organization as a collection of processes 2 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Managers Deal With Many Processes Innovation Procurement Manufacturing Order fulfillment Accounts Payable Hiring Etc. 3 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Thinking About Resources: Things Used to Perform Process Activities 4 People Machines Space Brainpower etc. The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Capacity is Simple-But Complex 5 Every Resource and Every Activity and Process in the Supply Chain has a Capacity Machines Labor Land/Buildings Production lines Vehicles Etc. In general, Capacity is nothing more than the maximum output of a process or a resource in a period of time. However, sometimes it is thought of as the amount of a resource that is available (an input measure). The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Process Capacity Definitions Maximum capacity: highest achievable level under ideal conditions, for a limited time Effective capacity: achievable level under normal conditions, for an extended time Capacity cushion is the difference between the maximum capacity and the effective capacity, usually, but not always, stated as a percentage. Utilization: how much available capacity is actually used Yield: usable output from input-for the time being, we will assume that yield is 100%. 6 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Longer-term Resource Capacity Planning The question to be answered is basically: How much (or how many) of each resource will we need To answer the question, you have to consider how much needs to be produced and how much one resource can produce, 7 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Resource Planning Calculating resource needs: Resources required = 8 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Total Resource Demands Effective Capacity of 1 resource Another Simple Problem Jones Company manufactures widgets. It expects to make and sell 100,000 widgets during the next month. It takes 10 minutes to make a widget. Production workers each work 200 hours per month. If Jones Company wants a 20% capacity cushion, how many production workers should it have? 9 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 And Another A neighborhood grocery store serves 80 customers per hour at its busiest time of the day. If the store wishes to maintain a cushion of at least 10 minutes per hour at each checkout line and the average customer requires 4 minutes to be wrung up at the cash register, how many cash registers should the store have? 10 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Process Capacity-An Existing Process Capacity: amount of input that can go into or the amount of output that can be created by a process, at a given level of resources over a given time period 11 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Text Example 3-1 Internet bookseller distribution center can handle peak demand of 200,000 orders/day. However, the facility is designed to handle 120,000 orders/day under normal conditions. If orders averaged 150,000/day for the first 2 weeks of December, calculate the utilization of capacity. In addition (not part of the example) calculate the capacity cushion. 12 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Process Capacity Definitions Maximum capacity = 200,000 units per day Effective capacity =120,000 units per day Actual orders = 150,000 units per day Utilization of maximum capacity = (150,000/200,000) x 100% = 75% Utilization of effective capacity = (150,000/120,000) x 100% = 125% Capacity Cushion = 80,000 units/day (40%) Text: Example 3-1 13 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Anatomy of a Process Activities Inputs/Outputs/Flows Structure 14 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 We are going to look at a process problem as we go through the lecture. Rockness Recycling refurbishes rundown business students. The process uses a moving belt, which carries each student through the five steps of the process in sequence. The five steps are as follows: Step Description Time/ Student ____________________________________________________ 1 Unpack and place on belt 1.0 minutes 2 Strip off bad habits 1.5 minutes 3 Scrub and clean mind 0.8 minutes 4 Insert modern methods 1.0 minutes 5 Polish and pack 1.2 minutes One faculty member is assigned to each of these steps. Faculty members work a 40-hour week. Mr. Rockness has a contract which requires delivery of 2,000 refurbished students per week. The company has not been able to fulfill the contract. What is going on? 15 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 What are the Activities at Rockness Operations? Transportation? Inspection? Delay? Storage? 16 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Inputs to a Process: Whats Worked On Inputs be: Raw can materials Components People Information What are the Rockness inputs? 17 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Outputs of the Process Outputs can be: Goods Services Information What are the outputs at Rockness? 18 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Theory of Constraints (TOC) 1. Every process has a constraint 2. Every process has variance that consumes capacity 3. Every process must be managed as a system 4. Process measures are crucial to the processs success 5. Every process must continually improve http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wp3m1vg06Q&feature=related 19 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 1. Every process has a constraint Bottleneck: anyplace demand capacity; this limits the ability of the process to generate output A constraint or scarce resource A facility, a department, a machine, a skill type, etc. Defines the maximum capacity of a process Go look for: The process operation with the largest cycle time Inventory or delay in front of the bottleneck Vacuum behind the bottleneck 20 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 1. Every process has a constraint (contd) What Throughput Rate is Needed at Rockness? What is actually happening at Rockness? 21 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Another Problem Coopers Copy Shop is considering two different processes for completing copying jobs brought in by customers. Process A uses one person to setup the job and do the copying. If this approach is used, an experienced person can complete an average of 20 jobs per day. Process B uses two people. One person does the setup and the second person does the actual copying. Setup on one job can be done while copying is being completed on another but copying must be completed on a job before the copying machine can start copying the next. After some practice, this second process can be completed with a standard time of 10 minutes for setup and 15 minutes for actual copying. In either case, assume an 8 hour day, 5 days per week a. Assuming ideal conditions, what is the maximum capacity of Process B? b. How long would it take to process 200 jobs using Process A (assume maximum capacity and only one worker and one machine)? c. How long would it take to process 200 jobs using Process B (assume maximum capacity and only one production line)? d. If Cooper is primarily interested in providing low cost to customers, which Process should he put in place? e. If Cooper is primarily interested in providing quick service to customers, which Process should he put in place? 22 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 2. Variance consumes capacity Variance occurs in a processs inputs, activities and outputs. For example, inputs do not necessarily arrive at a process or an activity at a constant rate. Arrival rates vary. Similarly, cycle times (time to process a unit) are not necessarily constant. They vary. Resources may have downtime. You will not have to work problems related to wait time (text page 62-63), but you should understand the impact of this variability on process capacity and understand the types of actions companies may try to undertake to deal with the problem of variation. 23 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 2. Variance consumes capacity (contd) Wait time = 2 2 ca + c p 2 + u 1u tp ca = coefficient of variation (standard deviation/average) of job arrival times cp = coefficient of variation of job processing times u = utilization of the work center tp = average processing (cycle) time for jobs 24 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 3. Processes managed as systems Changing one element of a process may impact other elements, sometimes in unexpected ways. Process elements are interdependent Activities Inputs/Outputs/Flows Process structures Management policies 25 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 4. Measures processes for success Metrics should address aspects of performance that are important to both customers and the organization. They should be verifiable and quantifiable. They should align with standards and rewards. They should support strategy and priorities. They provide the basis for monitoring, controlling and improving processes. 26 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 5. Continuous improvement of processes Business Process Reengineering: radical redesign, expensive, difficult, but sometimes necessary. McDonalds in the early 1990s. Kaizen: focused, incremental improvement efforts small + small + small + small + + n = LARGE Team focus: utilize the knowledge and experience of the people associated with the process Short term and focused: quick, local improvement Action-oriented: quick implementation Repetitive: regular events 27 The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011 Areas for Process Improvement Increase Utilization Increase up-time Reduce changeovers and set-up times Improve scheduling-arrival rate of inputs Improve Efficiency 28 Improve layout Break bottlenecks Reduce variation Improve labor productivity The Eli Broad College of Business, Michigan State University, 2011
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Chapter 2:Operations and Supply Chain Strategy Michigan State University, 2011- 1 Michigan State University, 2011Levels of Strategic PlanningEnvironmentCorporate CultureStrategic QuestionsCorporate StrategyBusiness StrategiesSBUWhat business(es
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SOLUTIONS TO MIDTERM TEST # 1 ACTSC 431/831, FALL20111. (a) Prcfw_Y L > 60 = 1 Prcfw_Y L 60 = 1 Prcfw_50 + 0.8(X 50) 60 = 0.375.(b) Prcfw_Y P 40 = Prcfw_Y L 40|X > 20 = Prcfw_X 40|X > 20 = 0.25.(c) E (Y L ) =5020x1dx100+8050 (50+ 0.8(x 50)
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Answers to Practice Questions 1 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. (a)FY (y ) = Prcfw_Y y |N = 0 Prcfw_N = 0 + Prcfw_Y y |1 N 5 Prcfw_1 N 5+ Prcfw_Y y |N > 5 Prcfw_N > 50,y < 0,y/100y/2001 0.5 e 0.2 e, y 0.=(b) The probability is Prcfw_Y > 500 = 1 FY
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Answers to Practice Questions 2 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. Let X1 = 1/ X and X2 = eX .(a) We have E (X1 ) =1f (x)dx0xX= and E (X2 ) = E (eX ) = MX (1) = 16/9.Thus, E (Y ) = 0.2E (X1 ) + 0.8E (X2 ) = 1.7767.(b) The probability is Prcfw_Y > E (Y )
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Practice Questions 3 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. The conditional hazard rate function of loss X , given = , is h(x|) = x3 . The distributionof is a gamma distribution G(2, 4).(a) Calculate the probability that the loss is less than one.(b) Justify if t
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ANSWERS TO PRACTICE QUESTIONS 4 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. Use the pgf of X to prove that X is innitely divisible.2. (a) Let v = Prcfw_Xj 50. Use PN P (z ) = PN L (1 + v (z 1) to prove that N P isinnitely divisible.i. V ar(N P ) = 2108.05.(b)ii. Cov
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Practice Questions 4 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. Prove that if X has a mixed Poisson distribution and the mixing distribution is innitelydivisible, then X is innitely divisible.2. Let N L be the number of losses. The size of the j th loss is Xj . Assume
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Practice Questions 5 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. The aggregate losses for an insurer is S , which has the following pdffS (x) =2500/x5 , x 5;0,otherwise.The premium charged by the insurer is equal to (1+)E [S ], which is called the expectedvalue pri
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ANSWERS TO PRACTICES QUESTIONS 5 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. We have625, x 5,x4250020x 5 dx = ,x35502 2500xdx (E (S )2 = .5x95FS (x) = Prcfw_S x = 1 E (S ) =V ar(S ) =Thus, Pr cfw_S (1 + )E [S ] = Pr S E [S ] + V ar(S ) = 0.95 gives =
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ANSWERS TO PRACTICE QUESTIONS 6 ACTSC 431/831, FALL 20111. (a) The probability isPrcfw_N 3 = 1, N 5 = 2 = Prcfw_N 3 = 1 Prcfw_N 2 = 1 = 0.02747.12121212(b) The probability is Prcfw_N 1 = 0|N 1 = 3 =1252(c) The probability is2Prcfw_N1 =0 Prcf
Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
Practice Questions 6 ACTSC 331, FALL 20111. The surplus process of an insurer is Ut = u + 1.2 t Nt Xi , t 0, where u 0 is thei=1initial surplus; the claim number process cfw_Nt , t 0 is a Poisson process with rate1; and the claim sizes cfw_X1 , X2 , .
Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
Project ACTSC 831, FALL 2011Project deadline: 4:00 pm, Friday, December 9. Please submit a hard copy of your projectto M3 4012 or email a PDF le of your project to jcai@uwaterloo.ca by the deadline.Project requirement: Projects must be typed using LaTe
Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
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Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
Review Notes for Loss Models 1 - ACTSC 431/831, FALL 2011Part 2 Severity Models1. Severity models are distributions that are used to model the distribution of theamount of a claim/loss.2. The distribution function F (y ) of a random variable Y is call
Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
Review Notes for Loss Models 1 - ACTSC 431/831, FALL 2011Part 3 Frequency Models1. Frequency models are used to model the number of events or claims/losses.2. A counting random variable N is a nonnegative integer-valued random variablewith pf pk = Pcf
Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
Review Notes for Loss Models 1 - ACTSC 431/831, FALL 2011Part 4 Frequency and Severity with Coverage ModicationsLet X be the ground-up loss for an insurance policy or an insurer and assume that X is acontinuous r.v. with cdf F (x), sf S (x), and pdf f
Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
Review Notes for Loss Models 1 - ACTSC 431/831, FALL 2011Part 5 Aggregate Loss ModelsRoughly speaking, an aggregate loss model is used to describe the total loss of an insurance portfolio in a xed time period.1. Individual Risk Model: There are n polic
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Review Notes for Loss Models 1 - ACTSC 431/831, FALL 2011Part 6 The Classical Continuous Time Ruin ModelIn this part, times are measured in years, unless stated otherwise.1. Poisson Process: Let Nt be the number of claims up to time t or the number of
Waterloo - ACTSC - 431
ACTSC 431/831 LOSS MODELS 1, FALL 2011Instructor: Jun Cai, M3 4012, 519-888-4567 ext. 36990, jcai@uwaterloo.caInstructors Oce Hours: Monday, 14:0016:00.Lectures: 11:3012:20 on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday in MC 2066.Course Webpage: UWACE. Course info
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Parameter estimationActSCi 432/8321 / 31Distributions SummaryX is Binomial with parameters n (positive integer) andp (0, 1)p .f . f (x ) =nxp (1 p )nx for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, .nxE (X ) = np ,Var (X ) = np (1 p )X is Bernoulli with parameters p (0,
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Credibility IActSCi 432/8321 / 16Distributions SummaryX is Binomial with parameters n (positive integer) andp (0, 1)p .f . f (x ) =nxp (1 p )nx for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, .nxE (X ) = np ,Var (X ) = np (1 p )X is Bernoulli with parameters p (0, 1) X i
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Credibility IIActSCi 432/8321 / 22Greatest Accuracy Credibility Theory (GACT)Bayesian approach developed by H. BhlmannuSuppose we have a risk r.v. X that depends on a xed butunknown parameter . (Here can be a vector in general)For example, represe
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Credibility IIIActSCi 432/8321 / 20Linear Exponential Family - A quick reviewDenition (LEF)X LEF if the density is given byf (x ; ) =p (x )e r ()xq ()r () is called the canonical parameter.It turns out that the LEF class contains well-known dist
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Parameter estimation suuplement noteActSCi 432/8321/7Review: Unbiased estimationConsider an iid random sample X = (X1 , ., Xn ) from a modelspecied by its pdf (or pmf) f (x |)Here parameter is a vector or scalar to be estimated from XAn estimator n
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
1!!"#"$%!#&'()*&+%!)*"%!,*&(*$!!-&%.!/0)1!'"*"%-!!This Rate Manual has been approved by theSuperintendent of Insurance of the State of New Yorkand is effective September 1, 1993.FOURTH REPRINT: May 1, 2007Fourth Revision: March 3, 2010This r
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
ActSc 432/832: Loss Models II (Fall 2011)1Course outlineInstructor: Joseph H.T. Kim (M3 3126, ext. 35539, jhtkim@uwaterloo.ca) Best to email me since I do notcheck my voice mail often.Lecture: 2:30-3:20 MWF (MC 4059)Teaching Assistants and oce hours
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Formula sheetThe Normal EquationsE (Xn+1 ) = 0 +Cov (Xi , Xn+1 ) =nj =1nj =1j E (Xj )j Cov (Xi , Xj )Empirical Bayesian Estimation Formulasnim (X Xi )2 ; i = j =1 ij ij=X;ni 1a = (m m1Distributions Summaryri=1r(ni 1)ivi = =1r(ni
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Name:ID:1. The random variable has pdf . It is known that =1000. You are given the following fiveobservations: 43 145 233 396 775 (sample mean = 318.4).Determine the method-of-moments estimate of .A.B.C.D.E.<44<4.24.2<4.44.4<4.6>4.62. Suppo
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Name:ID:1. A random variable X is assumed to satisfy X|( = ) ~ Pareto (, = 1200), and thus= , x > 0 and the prior distribution for is Exponential with mean 5, i.e. , >0. Determine theposterior distribution of given X = 155 (i.e. say which type of dist
Waterloo - ACTSC - 432
Waterloo - ACTSC - 463
1. Use the following data to answer the questions below. Assume this company does not reserve for salvage or subrogation recoveries.Claim # Acc. Year Rep. Year1200520052200520063200620064200720075200720076200720087200820088200620
Waterloo - ACTSC - 463
1. Use the transactional data to create the cumulative data:Paid Triangle20052006200720081250070072050024700900900362300105048230012120020015755002417005001000365002004850012170090022951000242400140019003628001
Waterloo - ACTSC - 463
1. Use the transactional data (as of December 31, 2008) to develop cumulative accident year paidand incurred loss triangles.Claim #1112233455566777891010Acc Date12-Jan-0512-Jan-0512-Jan-0510-Mar-0510-Mar-0501-Nov-0501-Nov-05