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Lecture 2
Course: SOC 170, Fall 2011School: University of...
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diseasesteachthroughinternet,puthandsanitizerinpublicinstitutions Probabilityoftransmission Lengthoftimebetweeninfectionandremovalfrominfectedpopulation Lengthoftimebetweeninfectionandknowledgeofinfe(publicinstitutions) Accesstohealthcarevaccines Timefrominfectiontoknowingthatyouareinfectedaffectschangesinbehavior Needtoknowhowyoucankeepyourselfhealthyandstopthespreadofthese 03:13 Lecture2...
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diseasesteachthroughinternet,puthandsanitizerinpublicinstitutions
Probabilityoftransmission
Lengthoftimebetweeninfectionandremovalfrominfectedpopulation
Lengthoftimebetweeninfectionandknowledgeofinfe(publicinstitutions)
Accesstohealthcarevaccines
Timefrominfectiontoknowingthatyouareinfectedaffectschangesinbehavior
Needtoknowhowyoucankeepyourselfhealthyandstopthespreadofthese 03:13
Lecture2
Whatshapesthemortalityimpactofaninfectiousdiseaseonapopulation?
Infectiousdiseasetraits
Physiologicalimmunities
Airbornevs.fluidborne
Populationsize,age,anddensity
Organizedinteractionsction
Incidencevs.Prevalence
Incidencenewcasestotrackadiseaseinapopulation,canalsoaffectthenumberof
timesthatsomeonehassomethingovertheirlifetime
Prevalenceproportionofpopulationthathassomethingatagiventime
WhyisthedifferencebetweenthetwomeaningfulforHIV/AIDSandtheflu?
Onlywaytheprevalenceratecandecreaseisifpeopledie
PrevalenceforHIV/AIDSwillalmostalwaysbelargerthantheincidence
Incidenceforfluwillalmostalwaysbelargerthanprevalence
Oncewemakevaccinesavailabletopeople,weletthepopulationselectwhogetsthem
orhaveastatecenteredapproachthatdecideswhogetsaccessandwhen
Dependsondesiredoutcome
Goalistoreduceprevalenceofflu
Elderlymorelikelytodie
Youngspreaditmoreshouldbe1stinlineforvaccine
Whydowehavealimitedsupplyofvaccinesmakingvaccinesisrisky,noteveryonewill
wantit,effectsofgivingvaccinethatcouldhavebadoutcomes
Garrett1994:thechangingnatureoftheflu,predictabilityofcycles, FLU1976
Changingnaturehelpfultounderstandwhyitposesapersistentthreat
Oncohortpyramidifthelowest2cohortsareaffectedbyastrain,itislikelythatthe
hadnoexposuretothatstrain
Cycleslengthenaslifeexpectancygetsbigger
Institutionalresponse:liability,governmenttakesresponsibility
Manypeoplegotverysickformthevaccines,noonediedfromthefluandnotmany100yearsthenewpopulationhas
cohortsolderthanthemwereexposedatsometimebefore
Predictabilityofcyclesendofthedayisnotreallyclear
Manyfactorsaresociallydeterminedandconstantlychanging
Ifittakes100yearstorecycleanentirepopulation,in
peoplegotvaccinatedmoreharmfromvaccinethanactualflu
Weakenedourabilitytodealwithinfectiousdiseases
Humanwillingnesstovaccinatebigproblem
Feararoundthiswasveryhigh,vaccinationratesverylow
Counterfactualinanysituationlikethisisundeniableagreatpreventablestrategywill
alwayslooklikeitisuseless
Becomeshardtogetpeopletoinvestinpublichealtheffortsifpreventionisalways
viewedasunneededpeoplearehighlycriticalwhengovernmentfailstostepupafter
thingslikeKatrinabuthardtoknowwhetherornotvaccineswereeffectivebecausewe
dontknowwhatitwouldhavebeenlikewithoutthem
NoymerandGarenne2000
Culling:Someofthehugelossesofliferesultingfromthe1918influenzaepidemic
were,in
somesense,borrowedagainstfuturedeathsfromtuberculosis
Cullingsomethingelsekillspeoplebutthereweregoingtodieanyway,ifaheatwaveis
responsibleformanydeathsbutalotofthepeoplewerealreadyclosetodeathyou
needtoaccountforthatinlookingatresultsoftheheatwave
03:13
03:13
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University of Wisconsin-Madison - SOC - 170
03:13Howdoyoumeasurehealthinapopulation?Lifeexpectancylacksvariationinwhatpeoplearedyingfrom,#ofchildrenwhodie beforeage1inagivenyear/#livebirthsinagivenyearInfantmortalityrate#ofpersonyearslivedaboveage/#ofpeoplealiveatthatageHealthylifeexpectancy#o
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03:14HealthDisparitydifferencesthatoccurbygender,raceorethnicity,educationor income,disability,geographiclocation,orsexualorientationSimplyasdifferencesRepresentssomeformofsocialinequalityWheremenandwomendieatsameageindicativeofhealthydisparitythanth
University of Wisconsin-Madison - SOC - 170
03:14NumberofdeathsfromdisastersisincreasingTypesofnaturaldisastersarechanginghowmanypeopledieandhowmanypeople sufferconsequencesdependsontheresponseKatrinahurricanecombinedwithlowlevelofpreparednesstodealwithitJapanbecamemoredramaticwhencombinedwith
University of Wisconsin-Madison - SOC - 170
03:14TheTheorywhypeoplemoveandhowmigrantsareselected3percentoftheworldpopulationmovesbetweencountrieseachyear62millionmovedfromsouthtonorthLatinAmerica NorthAmerica61millionmovedfromsouthtosouthPeruChile,ArgentinaBrazil53millionmovedfromnorthtonorthU
University of Wisconsin-Madison - SOC - 170
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University of Wisconsin-Madison - SOC - 170
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University of Wisconsin-Madison - SOC - 170
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