ways Ten to help us all make
the most of these 80 minutes
1. Arrive in class on time and remain attentive and
engaged until you are dismissed.
2. Sit as close to the front as you can.
3. Use the restroom before, not during class.
4. Do not talk to your neighbors.
5. In particular, pursue your love life elsewhere.
6. Do not read newspapers in class. Not even the
Targum.
7. Sleep elsewhere.
8. Silence and stow your cell phone.
9. Do not read or send text messages during class.
10. Do not use a laptop during class.
Today in Comparative Politics
Regression without Excruciating Pain
Culture and the Evolution of Democracy
Do we need a civic culture for democracy to take
hold and thrive?
Is there a best religion for encouraging democratic
development?
Are some religions incompatible with democracy?
Empirical Evidence
Some Terminology
Dependent Variablewhat we want to explain
The probability that a country becomes a democracy given
that it was a dictatorship in the previous year.
Independent Variablesthe things we think explain
or determine the value of the dependent variable.
Oil producer, economic growth, and wealth.
Dependent
variable
Independent
variable
Incumb% = 45.5 + 3.1 Income%Change
Intercept
Dependent
variable
Slope
Independent
variable
Whats the best fitting line?
Regression line is the one that minimizes the
sum of the squared errors.
Method of least squares
More than one independent variable?
Regression coefficient on a particular independent
variable = effect on the dependent variable of an
increase of one unit in that independent variable, with
all other independent variables remaining unchanged.
Regression methods also give us
information about the precision of estimates
How confident should we be about estimates
of coefficients?
Margin of error of a poll
Depends on:
1. Variation of opinion in the population
2. Number of people included in the poll
A poll can give a very precise reading on
how the population feels if most people have
the same opinion.
A poll will be less reliable (i.e., less precise)
if only a small number of persons are polled.
Margin of error in a regression
First, use statistical formulas and the same data used in
computing the regression line itself to compute the
standard error for each coefficient.
t-statistic = absolute value of regression coefficient /
standard error for that regression coefficient
The larger a regression coefficient is relative to its standard
error, the more precise that coefficient is
If the coefficient for a given independent variable has a
high t-statistic, then
the effect of that independent variable is measured relatively
precisely
we can be confident that there really is a relation between that
independent variable and the dependent variable.
In this case, the effect of the independent variable is called
statistically significant.
It's unlikely we'd get an estimate of this coefficient at least this
large, if the true value of the coefficient were actually zero.
Dependent Variable: Probability that a country will be
a democracy this year if it was a dictatorship last year
Independent variables
1946-1990
1946-1990
GDP per capita
0.0001***
(0.00003)
0.0001***
(0.00003)
-0.02***
(0.01)
Growth in GDP per capita
N
Log-likelihood
-2.30***
(0.09)
-2.27***
(0.09)
2407
2383
-233.01
-227.27
Robust standard errors in parentheses. * greater than 90% significant;
greater than 95% significant; *** greater than 99% significant.
Data Source: Przeworski et al. (2000)
A positive
coefficient
indicates that
the variable
increases the
probability that
a democracy
will emerge.
-0.48**
(0.24)
Oil producer
Constant
Coefficient
Standard error
**
Empirical Evidence
Increases in wealth (GDP per capita) make the
emergence of democracy more likely.
Dictatorships that produce good economic
performance are less likely to become
democracies.
Dictatorships that are oil producers are less likely
to become democracies.
Empirical Evidence
Question
How does a countrys status as an oil producer, its
wealth, and its economic growth affect the
probability that it will remain a democracy?
Dependent Variable: Probability that a country will be
a democracy this year if it was a democracy last year
Independent variables
1946-1990
1946-1990
GDP per capita
0.0002***
(0.00004)
0.0002***
(0.00004)
Growth in GDP per capita
0.04***
(0.01)
Oil producer
-0.21
(0.269)
Constant
1.13***
(0.13)
1.12***
(0.13)
N
1584
1576
-149.71
-144.11
Log-likelihood
Robust standard errors in parentheses. * greater than 90% significant;
** greater than 95% significant; *** greater than 99% significant.
Source: Data are taken from Przeworski et al. (2000).
A positive
coefficient now
indicates that
the variable
increases the
probability that
democracy will
survive.
Empirical Evidence
Increases in wealth (GDP per capita) make the
survival of democracy more likely.
Democracies that produce good economic
performance are more likely to survive (not
become dictatorships).
Democracy is no more or less likely to survive in
countries that are oil producers than in countries
that are not oil producers.
Conclusion
Evidence suggests that countries are more likely
to become democratic and remain democratic as
their economies become more modern.
Higher levels of wealth encourage the emergence
and survival of democracy.
Changes in economic structure that accompany
wealth also matter.
States that rely on fixed assets that generate quasirents are less likely to sustain democracy.
Culture
An transmitted historically pattern of
meaning embodied in symbols, a system of
inherited conceptions expressed in symbolic
forms by means of which men communicate,
perpetuate, and develop their knowledge
about and attitudes toward life.
Clifford Geertz, The Interpretation of Cultures
An important distinction
Primordialist arguments treat culture as
something that is objective and inherited;
something that has been fixed since
primordial times.
Primordialist arguments may imply that democracy
is not for everyone.
Constructivist arguments treat culture as
something that is constructed or invented
rather than inherited.
It may be that democratic culture is required for
democracy. But cultures are malleable.
Cultures may not be impenetrable barriers to
democratization.
Classical Cultural Arguments
The notion that democracy or
authoritarianism is more suited to some
cultures than others has a long history.
Aeschylus, The Persians, 472 BCE
Aftermath of the Athenians' bloody defeat of the
Persians at the battle of Salamis
Contrast: opulent tyranny of the Persians v.
personal freedom of his fellow Greeks
Imputed authoritarianism to Asia, democracy in
Athens.
Aeschylus imagines the victorious Greeks, who
invented democracy, projecting civilizing freedoms
throughout barbarian Asia.
Asia is a Greek term, referring originally to those
others to the east in Anatolia and beyond
Classical Cultural Arguments
Montesquieu, The Spirit of the Laws (1752)
Each form of government requires specific cultural patterns
to endure:
Despotism is most suited to the Orient.
Monarchy is most suited to European states.
Democracy is most suited to the ancient world.
Best government for a given country: that which
leads men by following their propensities and inclinations and
best agrees with the humor and disposition of the people in
whose favor it is established.
What factors shape the answer?
Classical Cultural Arguments
Montesquieu, The Spirit of the Laws (1752)
Political institutions should be in relation to the climate of
each country, to the quality of its soil, to its situation and
extent, to the principal occupation of the natives, whether
husbandmen, huntsmen, or shepherds: they should have
relation to the degree of liberty which the constitution will
bear; to the religion of the inhabitants, to their inclinations,
riches, numbers, commerce, manners, and customs.
A long list
A pessimist about the possibility of exporting the
institutions of one country to another.
John Stuart Mill (1861)
No one believes that every people is capable of
working every sort of institutions.
Cant sustain civilized government without the right
mental and moral habits, along with some degree
of development.
Example: Nothing but foreign force would induce a tribe
of North American Indians to submit to the restraints of a
regular and civilized government.
Legislators should take account of pre-existing habits
and feelings when making laws and creating
institutions.
But he thought cultures were malleable.
People . . . learn to do things new to them. Familiarity is
a great help; but much dwelling on an idea will make it
familiar, even when strange at first.
Montesquieus and Mills arguments
Incorporated into
Cultural modernization theory
Argues that socioeconomic development does not
directly cause democracy.
Instead, economic development produces cultural
changes that ultimately produce democratic reform.
Cultural Modernization Theory
Immature society
Large agriculture
Mature society
Small agriculture
Small industry
Large industry
Small service
Large service
Primitive culture
Civilized culture
Dictatorship
Democracy
Problems with these arguments,
old and new
Problem 1: What is it about culture that matters?
Mill and Montesquieu provide a host of factors that
might matter for democracy. Most of are left vague.
What particular morals are incompatible with
democracy?
Which customs are problematic?
Both theorists point to non-cultural factors that matter
as well.
If culturalist arguments are to have any explanatory
power, they must distinguish and specify what it is
that matters.
Otherwise, it will never be possible to conclude that
culture does not matter.
Problems with these arguments,
old and new
Problem 2: What is the causal relationship between
cultural, economic, and political factors?
Does culture cause political institutions such as
democracy?
Does it also cause economic development?
Or do political institutions and economic development
cause culture?
A Civic Culture?
Almond and Verba, The Civic Culture, 1965
Three types of political culture
Subject
Parochial
Participant
Only participant or civic culture is compatible with
democracy.
A Civic Culture?
For Almond and Verba, culture is how individuals
think and feel about the political system.
Whether individuals believe they can influence political
decisions.
Whether they feel positive toward the political system.
Whether they believe citizens are trustworthy.
Whether they prefer gradual or revolutionary societal
change.
Moreover, we can learn such attitudes from surveys.
They found that the United States and UK were the most
stable democracies and had political cultures that most
closely resembled the civic culture.
Conclusion: civic culture is necessary for democracy.
Challenged the notion that cultures can preserve their
uniqueness and practices and still remain democratic.