You Did Know
There is a strong positive correlation between the
number of churches in a town and the number of bars!!
Methods & Science
Plausible Explanations:
Churches
Sociology 330
Spring 2012
Number of Bars
Sociology of the Paranormal, Unit 3
Number of Churches
Bars
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Did You Know
Did You Know
There is a strong positive correlation between ice
cream sales and the number of drowning!!
There is a strong positive correlation between the number of
nesting storks in a town and the number births 9 months later!!
Plausible Explanations:
Ice Cream
Storks
Plausible Explanations:
Number of Births
Number of Storks
Births
Ice Cream Sales
Drownings
Drownings
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The Point
Cues about Causes
Consistency: x generally produces y
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Nonspuriousness: x and y are NOT caused by z
causation.
Contiguity: short time lag separating x and y
short time lag separating and
does not imply
Temporal Ordering: x precedes y
Correlation
Correlation
Covariation: x and y tend to occur together
Plausibility: theory connects x and y
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1
Correlational Research
You have
Good Health
Visits to FH
3. Check for statistical correlation
Plausible Explanations:
Does seeing a faith healer improve health?
Faith Healer
Good Health
2. Measure health outcomes
1. Measure visits to faith healers
A strong positive correlation between seeing a
faith healer and an improvement in health!!
Correlational Strategy:
Good Health
Hypothesis: Faith healers improved health
Visits to FH
Placebo Effects
Improved on ones own
Social Influence
Dissonance Reduction
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Experimental Research
Experimental Research
Hypothesis: Faith healers improved health
Random Assignment
Experimental Strategy:
Randomly assign subjects to one of two settings:
1. Real faith healer (treatment group), vs.
2. Fake faith healer (control group)
Equalizes chance of subject being in each
experimental group
If one treatment group and one control group,
subject has 50% chance of assignment to each
Equates groups in terms of possible unknown
factorsbackground, experience, physiology,
personality, etc.
(Alternative: Faith healer in the next room vs. not.)
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Experimental Design
Comparing the Methods
Hypothesis: Faith healers improved health
1. Randomly assign people to real
assign people to real
faith healer group (treatment group)
3. Measure health outcomes in Randomly both
groups
Control
Health
2. assign people to fake
faith healer group (control group)
Correlational Strategy
Treatment
Faith Healer
Cues for Causation
Covariation: x and y tend to occur together
Temporal Ordering: x precedes y
Ordering: precedes
Contiguity: short time lag separating x and y
Nonspuriousness: x and y are NOT caused by z
Consistency: x generally produces y
Theoretical Plausibility: theory connects x and y
Experimental Strategy
Experimental Strategy:
Best explanation: faith healing improved health!!
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2
TM & Weather Prediction
TM & Weather Prediction
What is the Claim?
Group
Meditation
Warmer
Temps.
The Context:
Weather-sensitive construction project on the
MIU campus, 1979-1980. Results presented at
scientific conference claiming support for
Maharishi Effect.
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TM and the Weather
Meditation Date
Questionnaire for Cement Contractor
Unfavorable
12/2
Checking an Alternative
Next Days Weather
11/26/1979
Favorable
12/4
Unfavorable
12/13
Favorable
12/18
12/20
Favorable
Favorable
1/9/1980
(1) Before we are willing to commit our equipment in the
winter, we consult:
X
____ The National Weather Service
____ A private forecasting service
____ Other (explain)
____ Weather forecasts do not affect our
decisions regarding the production of concrete.
Favorable
12/10
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Favorable
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TM and the Weather
(2) In cold weather (below 32 ), we require our customers to
give us advance notice of:
____ One hour
____ Four hours
X
____ One day
____ Variable
____ Other (How long?)
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Timeline Illustration
Weather Forecasts and Actual Weather
on Days When Concrete was Poured
Building
contractor places
concrete order
(from Trumpy, F.D. 1984. Skeptical Inquirer. Vol. 8(Winter):143-148.
Forecast
Dates
11/26/79*
12/2/79
12/4/79
12/10/79
12/13/79
12/18/79
12/20/79
1/9/80
Favorable
Forecast?
Yes/No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Actual
Weather
Unfavorable
Favorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
Favorable
Favorable
Favorable
Favorable
TMers check with
contractor, meditate
if concrete was
ordered
ordered
Concrete
company checks
NWS to see if
okay to deliver
Monday
TMers take credit
for good weather,
feel good and
empowered.
empowered.
Concrete
company shows
delivers the
concrete
Tuesday
* Forecast favorable at 4pm, unfavorable at 9pm.
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3
The Real Causes
Meditation
Good Weather
Cement Company Decision to Pour
End of Unit 3
National Weather Service Forecast
Natural Forces
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