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The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Country Report Politics:
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has politically been in a state of constant flux since 1973, and the overthrow of the traditional monarchy. Following the 2001 invasion by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by NATO, the radical Islamist government of the Taliban was replaced with a republican style government, with three branches of government (executive, legislative, judicial). The current President of Afghanistan is Hamid Karzai, who was chosen in the 2001 Bonn Conference to lead the post-Taliban country, was re-elected in 2004 and 2009. The Afghan parliament, also known as the National Assembly, was elected in 2005, and 2010, and is divided into the upper House of Elders (Pashto: Mesherano Jirga) and the lower House of the People (Pashto: Wolesi Jirga). Both are made up if various political parties, ranging from Islamic to social democratic.12 Afghanistan continues to suffer from the effects of a civil war since 1978 and the subsequent NATO military intervention. The Afghan government currently has several major
1 2
List of Afghan political parties from 2005:http://www.afghan-web.com/politics/parties.html CIA World Factbook "Afghanistan" https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/af.html
issues. The Taliban continues to mount a major insurgency within Afghanistan, which has struck across the country, all in spite of sufficient NATO involvement in the country. Currently, Afghanistan is occupied by 130, 670 ISAF forces.3 However, the US and other NATO states have implemented timetables to withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014. Similarly, the opium trade continues to be one of the largest sources of income in Afghanistan, with Afghanistan growing more opium than any other country on Earth.4 Corruption remains a serious issue in Afghanistan, including serious accusations and protests following the presidential election in 2009, which led to the postponing of the parliamentary elections by several months.5 These issues make the future of Afghanistan still very much in flux. Afghanistan is currently, due to its occupation by the NATO-led ISAF, heavily oriented towards the Western political sphere. However, Afghanistan continues to maintain good relations with its neighbor Iran, and Iran has played a role, both military and economic, in the postTaliban era. Likewise, in May 2011, Afghanistan expressed interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) a collection of Central Asian states, Russia, and China.6
Economy:
The three decades of civil war have severely crippled the Afghan economy. Afghanistan remains among the world's poorest and least developed countries.7 The GDP of Afghanistan in 2010 was $27.36 billion, 111th in the world.8 Despite these economic setbacks, the GPD of Afghanistan grew by 8.2% in 2010, and 20.9% in 2009, putting Afghanistan at 11 in terms of
3
"International Security Assistance Force: Key Facts and Figures" http://www.isaf.nato.int/images/stories/File/Placemats/9%20September%202011%20ISAF %20Placemat.pdf 4 CIA World Factbook "Afghanistan" https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/af.html 5 "Afghanistan Postpones Parliamentary Election by 4 Months" The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/25/world/asia/25afghan.html 6 Radyuhin, Vladimir. "Afghanistan may join SCO". The Hindu.: http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2021578.ece 7 "Central bank claims hike in cash reserves ". Pahjwpk Afghan News: http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2010/06/09/central-bank-claims-hike-cash-reserves 8 CIA World Factbook "Afghanistan": https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/af.html
growth worldwide. 9 Indeed, Afghanistan's GDP in 2009 was over 350% of what it had been before the Soviet invasion in 1979, due almost entirely to foreign aid.10 Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7.5 8 8 11.5 3.4 22.5 8.2
Afghanistan 29
GDP of Afghanistan-Real GDP Growth Rate (%), 2003-201011 Afghanistan is mostly agricultural in nature, with 78.6% of the workforce working in agricultural work, as opposed to 5.7% in industry and 15.7% in services.12 Afghanistan's main exports are mostly resource-based, with Afghanistan lacking a major industrial component. Afghanistan also has recently been discovered to have had large amounts of mineral untapped resources. These include deposits of precious/semiprecious stones, metals, natural gas, and oil. 13 Afghanistan's largest export, however, is opium, which is also an illegal export. The dependency of large parts of society on the growing and selling of opium has kept both the Afghan government and rebel forces, such as the Taliban, from mounting any major actions against opium fields. The economic situation in Afghanistan, while not inherently positive, does show steady signs of improvement as time progresses. With the discovery of relatively untapped natural resources throughout the country, mining and other related industries will also likely become more important and profitable for foreign investors. However, Afghanistan must overcome its dependence on illegal opium harvesting, and improve the economic situation for its citizens. Currently, 36% of Afghanistan is below the poverty line and unemployment is at 35%.14 The potential for Afghanistan's economy, especially as the possibility of peace talks between the
9
CIA World Factbook "Afghanistan": https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/af.html 10 "GDP of Afghanistan 1960-2009": http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore? ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&r dim=country&idim=country:AFG&ifdim=country&tstart=293227200000&tend=1284609600000&hl=en&dl=en&icfg&uniSize=0.035&iconSize=0.5 11 Definition of GDP - real growth rate: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=af&v=66 12 CIA World Factbook "Afghanistan": https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/af.html 13 Kuo, Chin S. "The Mineral Industry of Afghanistan". 2006 Minerals Yearbook. U.S. Geological Survey (September 2007). http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/2006/myb3-2006-af.pdf 14 CIA World Factbook "Afghanistan": https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/af.html
government and the Taliban/Haqqani networks, economic and political progress look possible for the first time in decades.
Environmental:
Afghanistan's environmental situation has been affected greatly by its multi-decade civil war. The lack of any sort of cohesive infrastructure across the country has meant that critical need resources, such as fresh water and arable land, have become major dilemmas. Droughts from 1998-2003, and subsequently in 2006 caused famine for millions in Afghanistan, and the failure of water management in the country has led to severe water shortages across much of Afghanistan.15
15
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2736795.stm
Map of Afghanistan and Areas affected by Drought (2001) Courtesy of National Geographic16 Similarly, lack of real law enforcement has seen the Afghanistan's forests and wildlife being heavily harvested, with whole tracts of forest cut down and many animals hunted to near extinction. Whereas environmental organizations recognize that a country must have a minimum of 15% of its territory forested in order to maintain soil quality, Afghanistan is only 1-2% forested.17 The result of this is a major decrease in Afghanistan's potential to support agriculture, which an overwhelming amount of the population is dependent on for survival. Afghanistan a member of several international agreements, including those pertaining to Biodiversity, Climate Change, Desertification, Environmental Modification, and Ozone Layer Protection.18 Despite this, the World Health Organization (WHO) released a report in 2007 showing Afghanistan was one of the leading non-African countries in terms of environmentally related deaths.19 Similarly, Afghanistan's economic repair is quintessential to its restoration as a functioning nation.
16
http://web.archive.org/web/20080611174526/http://www.nationalgeographic.com/landincrisis/drought.ht ml 17 http://motherjones.com/environment/2002/03/afghanistans-environmental-casualties 18 CIA World Factbook "Afghanistan": https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/af.html 19 "New country-by-country data show in detail the impact of environmental factors on health" World Health Organization. 2007-06-13: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2007/pr30/en/index.html
Acknowledgements: Research and Data Development Provided by: Gregory Arnold, Research Assistant Under the Supervision and Coordination of: Dr. Gerard J. Janco, President, Eurasia Center/EBC