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Analysis of an Indian Mid cap.doc

Course: MBA 102, Spring 2012
School: Xavier
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MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL I Take Home Assignment Submission III Submitted By: Roll No. B11076 a/Clearly mention all the long-term debt instruments issued by your company and its peer (from their respective annual reports, etc.). Covenants/terms of the instrument could also be mentioned and commented upon. ELECON ENGINEERING LIMITED Secured Loans1 Rs.(Lacs) A) Loans and advances from a) Working capital Loans From...

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MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL I Take Home Assignment Submission III Submitted By: Roll No. B11076 a/Clearly mention all the long-term debt instruments issued by your company and its peer (from their respective annual reports, etc.). Covenants/terms of the instrument could also be mentioned and commented upon. ELECON ENGINEERING LIMITED Secured Loans1 Rs.(Lacs) A) Loans and advances from a) Working capital Loans From Banks 15839.69 b) Long Term Loans Term Loans 10,090.89 Corporate Loans 5160.00 B) HP from other banks 254.53 The long term debt instruments of Elecon Engineering Limited are as following the company has not issued any bond or debentures. The long term loans are mixture of bank loans and term loans. The details of the loan instruments are as following: i) Fund Based and Non Fund Based Working Capital Facilities [3A(a) & (b)(ii)] granted by Consortium of Banks consisting of State Bank of India (As Lead Bank), Bank of Baroda, Exim Bank, Axis Bank Ltd., HDFC Bank Ltd., IDBI Bank Ltd. and Standard Chartered Bank are secured by an equitable mortgage on the immovable properties and hypothecation of movable plant and machinery and assets of the Companys Materials Handling Equipment Division and Gear Division excluding certain assets specifically/ exclusively charged to other banks/ financial institutions but including the whole of the Companys Currents Assets, inventories, receivables and book debts ranking pari passu inter se.in respect of working capital facilities and guarantees issued by them in favour of various clients of the Company. Standard Chartered Bank was inducted in consortium on 28-09-2010 and documentation was made on 30-04-2011. ii) Term Loans [3A(b)(i)] obtained from Bank of Baroda, Exim Bank, Axis Bank Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd., Citi Bank N.A. and Vijaya Bank is secured by exclusive charge by way of Hypothecation on specific assets for which payments were made out of the term loan. iii) Capital Assets acquired on HP Loans from Banks [3B(a)] are secured by exclusive charge on respective assets purchased Unsecured Loans1 Short Term Loan Loan and advances from others Rs.(Lacs) 21562.29 126.69 TRF LIMITED Secured Loans1 A. From Banks i) Buyers Line of credit ii) Cash Credit Account iii) Short Term Loans iv) Long term Loans Rs. (Lacs) Unsecured Loans1 Rs. (Lacs) Nil 2854.62 6633 5040 9113 1. The Buyers credit from Banks is repayable at the end of around 180 days from the drawdown dates. All the repayments are due in 2011-12. 2. Buyers line of credit, Cash Credit and Short Term Loans from Banks are secured by hypothecation, ranking pari passu, of all tangible movable assets including in particular stocks of raw materials other than those purchased under Bill Discounting (Components) Scheme of Small Industries Development Bank of India(SIDBI), finished goods, work-inprogress, consumables,spares and other movable assets and book debts, outstandings and all other receivables. Facilities from Canara Bank and Central Bank of India are also secured, by hypothecation ranking pari passu, of fixed assets, present and future, except on an asset hypothecated to SIDBI as first charge. 3. Long Term Loan from DBS Bank is secured by pari passu first charge on the fixed assets of the Company. 4. Long Term Loan from Dena Bank is secured by pari passu first charge on the fixed assets and second charge on the current assets of the Company. b/Clearly mention their available listing data of each of these instruments issued by your company and its peer like the one discussed in class (from the appropriate stock exchange website, etc.). Since the company as well as its chosen peer, TRF Limited, do not have any bond or debentures that is listed in the stock exchanges.1 c/Compute the yield to maturity of these instruments using the available market data. For securities, you are not able to compute the YTM- mention reason behind the same. Both Elecon Engineering Limited and TRF Limited do not have any Securities issued hence there is no market record for the same.1 d/Comment about issues such as the credit ratings, current bond yields and their spreads (vis-a-vis say, 10-year local Govt. securities, etc. to feasible extent). Please do this only for your company. Both Elecon Engineering Limited and TRF Limited do not have any Securities issued hence there is no market record for the same.1 Please take your expected rate of return as 13% for all type of firms for the below questions. e/ Intrinsic value of your company's shares using constant growth DDM model. Also, compute the value for its peer using the same assumptions. Clearly talk about the assumptions behind taking a certain growth rate, etc. Mention if the model is good/applicable for your company or not. And a few other critical comments (such as why is the current market price different from the computed intrinsic value, etc.). ELECON ENGINEERING COMPANY LIMITED Equity + Reserve Net Income Divdend Year & Surplus (Rs. b ROE b*ROE 1 (Rs. Cr.) payout ratio2 Cr.) 2010-11 87.9 394.6 22.09% 0.78 0.223 0.174 2009-10 66.2 326.1 24.54% 0.75 0.203 0.153 2008-09 57.5 275.4 28.38% 0.72 0.209 0.150 2007-08 67.2 236.72 24.24% 0.76 0.284 0.215 2006-07 54.9 187.9 9.88% 0.90 0.292 0.263 Growth Rate= Average (0.174+0.15 3+0.150+0.2 15+0.263)= 0.191 ke 0.130 GDP 0.070 Growth conservative rate Considering approach in estimation of growth rate of growth GDP Growth appears better estimate that bxROE measure. Dividend Rs. 16.720 D(2011)= D(2011)*(1 Dividend +GDP Rs. 17.890 D(2012)= Growth Rate) Share price D(2011)*(1 Rs. 298.17 (2011)= +GDP Growth Rate)/(keGDP Growth Rate) Current Market Price= Decision Rs. 69.75 TRF LIMITED Year Net Income (Rs. Cr.)1 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 -5.33 49.06 50.56 32.17 20.2 Growth Rate= ke GDP Growth rate Considerin g conservativ e approach in estimation of growth rate of growth GDP Growth appears better estimate that bxROE Average (0.22+0.51 +0.52+0.71 +0.73)= Equity + Reserve & Surplus (Rs. Cr.) 168.05 169.78 132.22 94.42 55.62 Divdend payout ratio2 b ROE b*ROE 301.25% 20.39% 16.96% 15.26% 19.14% 1.4796 0.8039 0.8473 0.8 0.8088 -0.032 0.289 0.382 0.341 0.363 -0.047 0.232 0.324 0.273 0.294 0.215 0.130 0.070 measure. Dividend D(2011)= Dividend D(2012)= Share price (2011)= Rs. D(2011)*(1 +GDP Growth Rate) D(2011)*(1 +GDP Growth Rate)/(keGDP Growth Rate) 2.200 Rs. 2.354 Rs. 39.23 Current Market Price= Decision Rs. 317.9 f/ Intrinsic value of your company's shares using phased growth DDM model. Also compute the value for its peer using the same assumptions. Clearly mention about the assumptions behind taking a certain growth rate, etc. Mention if the model is good/applicable for your company or not. And a few other critical comments (such as why is the current market price different from the computed intrinsic value, etc.). ELECON ENGINEERING LIMITED Net Income (Rs. Year Cr.)1 2010-11 87.9 2009-10 66.2 2008-09 57.5 2007-08 67.2 2006-07 54.9 Estimate of growth rate Phase I Phase II Phase III 25% 10% 6% Growth Rate 32.78% 15.13% -14.43% 22.40% 5 years 5 years Long run The company Elecon Engineering Limited is affected by cyclicity of the industry. The growth rate has increased to 32.78% from 15% last year. This is primarily due to delivery of project based consignments. In the phased growth model we will consider this cyclicity effect. Based on the recent industry information, the company has received large orders from BHEL and invested in profitable subsidiaries overseas and therefore is expected to perform better in next 5 years. However, in the long run the growth rate is taken at a conservative estimate of 10% for next 5 years and then at 6%. Year Dividend Growth Rate 2011 16.72 2012 20.06 0.2 2013 24.08 0.2 2014 28.89 0.2 2015 34.67 0.2 2016 41.60 0.2 2017 49.93 0.1 2018 54.92 0.1 2019 60.41 0.1 2020 66.45 0.1 2021 73.10 0.1 2022 77.48 0.06 Share price TRL LIMITED Year 2011 2012 2013 Dividend 2.2 2.64 3.17 Growth Rate 0.2 0.2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3.80 4.56 5.47 6.57 7.23 7.95 8.74 9.62 10.19 Share price Year 2021 Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.06 Rate 145.6427 Dividend 2.2 2.64 3.17 3.80 4.56 5.47 6.57 7.36 8.24 9.23 10.34 10.96 PV 128.887346 Growth Rate PV 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.06 2.34 2.80 3.36 4.04 4.84 5.81 6.51 7.29 8.17 9.15 9.70 INTRINSIC VALUE Decision 192.90 SELL g/Intrinsic value of your company's shares using liquidation valuation method. Also compute the value for its peer. Mention if the model is applicable/ok for your company or not. And a few other critical comments (such as why is the current market price different from the liquidation value, etc.). ELECON ENGINEERING LIMITED Number of shares 92861510 Nos. Net worh 394.6 Rs.(Cr.) Value per share 42.49 Rs. Current Market Price 69.75 Rs. Decision: TRF Limited Number of shares 11004412 Nos. Net worth 168.05 Rs.(Cr.) Value per share 152.71 Rs. Current Market Price 317.90 Rs. Decision: h /Intrinsic value of your company's shares using relative multiples P/E method. Mention if the model is applicable/ ok for your company or not. And a few other critical comments (such as why is the current market price different from the computed value, etc.). ELECON ENGINEERING LIMITED P/E Ratio (Industry Average) 3 Current EPS 3 P/E Ratio X Current EPS Current Market Price of Share TRF LIMITED P/E Ratio 3 Current EPS 3 P/E Ratio X Current EPS Current Market Price of Share Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs. 12.66 9.47 119.89 69.75 12.66 0.76 9.62 317.9 i/Intrinsic value of your company's shares using relative multiples P/BV method. Mention if the model is applicable/ok for your company or not. And a few other critical comments (such as why is the current market price different from the computed value, etc.). Price/ Book Value Elecon Engineering Company Limited TRF Limited BHEL Larsen & Tubro Suzlon Average ELECON TRF 1. 2. 3. P/BV (Industry Average) 3 Book value of Elecon Engg Limited 3 BV X AVG(P/BV) Current Market Price of Share P/BV (Industry Average) 3 Book value of TRF 3 BV X AVG(P/BV) Current Market Price of Share Annual Report 2010-11 Money.rediff.com Reference taken from Website for the estimation of ratios Moneycontrol.com Reference taken from Website for the estimation of ratios Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio 1.64 2.08 4.03 3.95 0.98 2.54 Rs. Rs. Rs. 2.54 42.49 107.92 69.75 Rs. Rs. Rs. 2.54 152.72 387.91 317.90
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