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31 Pages
Chapter10
Course: FINANACE 301, Spring 2012School: George Mason
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Word Count: 912
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Outcomes Chapter hapter10 ProjectCashFlows andRisk 1 Learning 10 Describetherelevantcashflowsthatmustbeforecasttomake informedcapitalbudgetingdecisions. Identifytherelevantcashflowsandperformacapitalbudgeting analysisfor:(a)anexpansionprojectand(b)areplacement project Describehowtheriskinessofacapitalbudgetingprojectis evaluatedandhowtheresultsareincorporatedincapital budgetingdecisions....
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Outcomes
Chapter hapter10
ProjectCashFlows
andRisk
1
Learning 10
Describetherelevantcashflowsthatmustbeforecasttomake
informedcapitalbudgetingdecisions.
Identifytherelevantcashflowsandperformacapitalbudgeting
analysisfor:(a)anexpansionprojectand(b)areplacement
project
Describehowtheriskinessofacapitalbudgetingprojectis
evaluatedandhowtheresultsareincorporatedincapital
budgetingdecisions.
Describehowcapitalbudgetingdecisionsdifferforfirmsthathave
foreignoperationsandforfirmsthatonlyhavedomestic
operations
2
CashFlowEstimation
Mostimportantandmostdifficultstepinthe
analysisofacapitalproject
Financialstaffsroleincludes:
Coordinatingotherdepartmentsefforts
Ensuringthateveryoneusesthesamesetof
economicassumptions
Makingsurethatnobiasesareinherentin
forecasts
3
RelevantCashFlows
CashFlowVersusAccountingIncome
IncrementalCashFlows
4
UnilatesAccountingProfits
VersusCashFlows
5
UnilatesAccountingProfits
VersusCashFlows
6
IncrementalCashFlows
AnIncrementalCashFlowisthechange
inafirmsnetcashflowattributabletoan
investmentproject.
7
ProblemsinDeterminingIncremental
CashFlows Acashoutlaythatalreadyhasbeen
SunkCost:
incurredandcannotberecovered
OpportunityCost:Thereturnonthebest
alternativeuseofanasset
Externalities:Theeffectofacceptingaprojecton
thecashflowsinotherpartsofthefirm
ShippingandInstallationCosts
Inflation
8
IdentifyingIncrementalCashFlows
InitialInvestmentOutlay:theincremental
cashflowsassociatedwithaprojectthatwill
occuronlyatthestartofaprojectslife
IncrementalOperatingCashFlow:the
changesindaytodaycashflowsthatresult
fromthepurchaseofacapitalprojectand
continueuntilthefirmdisposesoftheasset
TerminalCashFlow:thenetcashflowsthat
occuronlyattheendofaprojectslife
9
IncrementalOperatingCashFlow
10
CapitalBudgetingProjectEvaluation
ExpansionProject:Aprojectthatisintended
toincreasesales;providesgrowthtothefirm
ReplacementAnalysis:Ananalysisinvolving
thedecisionofwhethertoreplaceanexisting,
stillproductiveassetwithanewasset
11
ExpansionProjectAnalysisoftheCashFlows
InitialInvestmentOutlay
Costofnewasset
Shippingandinstallation
Increaseinnetworkingcapital
Initialinvestment
$(9,500)
(500)
(4,000)
$(14,000)
12
ExpansionProjectAnalysisoftheCashFlows
13
ExpansionProjectNetSalvageValue
14
ExpansionProjectAnalysisoftheCashFlows
15
ExpansionProject
CashFlowTimeLine
ReplacementProjectAnalysisoftheCash
Flows
17
ReplacementProjectCashFlowTime
Line
18
IncorporatingRiskinCapitalBudgeting
Analysis
StandAloneRisk:theriskanassetwouldhaveifit
wereafirmsonlyrisk
Measuredbythevariabilityoftheassetsexpectedreturns
Corporate(WithinFirm)Risk:risknotconsideringthe
effectsofstockholdersdiversification
Measuredbyaprojectseffectonthefirmsearnings
variability
Beta(Market)Risk:partofaprojectsriskthatcannot
beeliminatedbydiversification
Measuredbytheprojectsbetacoefficient
19
TechniquesforMeasuring
StandAloneRisk
SensitivityAnalysis:Keyvariablesare
changedandtheresultingchangesinthe
NPVandtheIRRareobserved.
ScenarioAnalysis:Badandgoodsetsof
financialcircumstancesarecomparedwith
themostlikelysituation.
MonteCarloSimulation:Probablefuture
eventsaresimulatedonacomputer.
20
SensitivityAnalysisGraph
21
ScenarioAnalysis
Ariskanalysistechniqueinwhichbadand
goodsetsoffinancialcircumstancesare
comparedwithamostlikely,orbasecase,
situation.
22
ScenarioAnalysis
23
MonteCarloSimulation
Ariskanalysistechniqueinwhichprobable
futureeventsaresimulatedonacomputer,
generatingaprobabilitydistributionthat
indicatesthemostlikelyoutcomes.
24
Advantages/Disadvantages
ofSimulationAnalysis
Advantages
Reflectsprobabilityofeachinput
ShowsrangeofNPVs,expectedNPV,NPV,and
CVNPV
Disadvantages
Difficulttospecifyprobabilitydistributionsand
correlation
Ifinputsarebad,outputwillbebad:
GIGO=GarbageIn,GarbageOut!
25
Corporate(WithinFirm)Risk
Riskthatdoesnottakeintoconsiderationthe
effectsofstockholdersdiversification,itis
measuredbyaprojectseffectonthefirms
earningsvariability.
26
Beta(orMarket)RiskandRequiredRate
ofReturnforaProject
SecurityMarketLineequation:
rS=rRF+(rMrRF)S
ErieSteelisallequityfinanced,socostofequityisalso
itsaveragedrequiredrateofreturn,orcostofcapital.
Eries=1.1;rRF=8%;andrM=12%
rS=8%+(12%8%)1.1=12.4%
=Eriescostofequity
InvestorsshouldbewillingtogiveEriemoneytoinvest
inaverageriskprojects.
27
RequiredRateofReturnforaProject
rproj=theriskadjustedrequiredrateof
returnforanindividualproject
rproj=rRF+(rMrRF)b proj
28
MeasuringBetaRiskforaProject
PurePlayMethod:
1.
2.
3.
Identifycompanieswhoseonlybusinessisthe
projectinquestion.
Determinethebetaforeachcompany.
Averagethebetastofindanapproximationof
proposedprojectsbeta.
29
HowProjectRiskIsConsideredinCapital
BudgetingDecisions
Mostfirmsuse:RiskAdjustedDiscountRate
Discountratethatappliestoparticularlyrisky
streamofincome
Itisequaltotheriskfreerateofinterestplusarisk
premium.
30
MultinationalCapitalBudgeting
RepatriationofEarnings:Theprocessofsending
cashflowsfromaforeignsubsidiarybacktothe
parentcompany
ExchangeRiskRate:Theuncertaintyassociatedwith
thepriceatwhichthecurrencyfromonecountrycan
beconvertedintothecurrencyofanothercountry
PoliticalRisk:Theriskofseizureofaforeign
subsidiarysassetsbythehostcountryor
unanticipatedrestrictionsoncashflowstotheparent
company
31
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