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Course: ECON 332, Fall 2011
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Role I. The of Uncertainty: Theory (continued) Using the results we covered Monday, we began class deriving rules for the desired policy based on the slope of the marginal damage function (MDF): o When MDF is steeper, mistakes with quantity are more costly. Thus, regulation is a better option. o When MDF is flatter, a tax is better, because the tax represents MDF well. A third option is to combine permits with a...

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Role I. The of Uncertainty: Theory (continued) Using the results we covered Monday, we began class deriving rules for the desired policy based on the slope of the marginal damage function (MDF): o When MDF is steeper, mistakes with quantity are more costly. Thus, regulation is a better option. o When MDF is flatter, a tax is better, because the tax represents MDF well. A third option is to combine permits with a safety valve. o One problem with the above analysis is that fees are rarely used. o Permits are more practical politically, but restrict quantity even if costs are high. o This proposal combines both features. o Implementation: Along with emissions targets, the government sets a trigger price (e.g. $25 per ton of carbon). If the price of permits rose above the trigger, the government would sell extra permits to maintain this price. o Political analysis Conservatives view it as a tax. Environmentalists fear stringent standards will not be met. II. Toxins Properties of toxins: 1. Toxins are found in small amounts. Also, it means that exposure to small amounts led to adverse health effects. Steep MDF implies quantity regulation is best. 2. Uncertainty is a concern Because health effects occur after repeated exposure, establishing links between exposure and health is difficult. Because toxins occur in small amounts, monitoring is difficult. 3. Generally synthetic or inorganic and persist for a long time Therefore, a stock pollutant. Market failures related to toxins. 1. Externalities Firms dont account for social costs of disposing wastes. Particularly difficult because toxins are a stock pollutant. Therefore, MDF increases over time. 2. Imperfect information If people choose to accept risks of consumption, it is not a market failure. However, are people able to assess risk properly? Risk perception is a problem. Therefore, government may mandate that information be provided (e.g. warnings on cigarette packages). Risk may be to future generations, who are not currently represented in the market. III. Policies for Toxins To deal with the externalities problem, command and control regulation of toxins is often desirable, as threshold effects are a concern. o Examples: Toxic Substances Control Act Passed in 1976, this bill gives the EPA power to: Regulate all new chemicals Require testing on existing chemicals The goal is efficiency: cost-benefit analysis is to be used! Regulating food additives Food additives were originally regulated by the Delaney Clause Passed in 1958. Prohibits the use of additives that cause cancer in animals in processed food. Problems: Does not recognize cost/benefit analysis. Scientific advances make more accurate measurement of cancer risk possible. Therefore, old cancer-causing pesticides are allowed, but new pesticides that have less, but still some, risk of cancer prohibited. Because of these problems, Congress passed the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996, which simply required that pesticides used in processed foods be set at a "safe level." Deposit-refund systems o Consumers pay a deposit when purchasing products with toxic waste (e.g. batteries). o When the product is disposed of properly, the deposit is returned. Liability systems o Require toxic waste generators, transporters, and disposal site operators to pay for the damages they are responsible for. o Liability laws hold parties responsible for the negative consequences of their behavior. As a result, liability laws internalize the externality. o In theory, this can lead to an efficient solution. Because we are dealing with uncertainty, we want to model the level of precaution taken, which affects the probability of an undesirable outcome. Firms weigh the benefits of precaution (reduced marginal damages, which they must pay if held liable) versus the marginal cost of greater protection. Note that these are social benefits, since the firms are held liable for all damages. Thus, liability leads to the efficient level of precaution. o Types of liability Strict liability the person doing damage is responsible, whether or not proper precautions are taken. Negligence the injurer is held responsible only if that person has taken less than the desirable level of precaution. Requires the courts to determine what an appropriate level of caution is. Joint and several liability when the source of damages could be several parties, any one party can be sued for all the damages. The theory behind this is that the party sued will have to go incentive after the other parties. Used in Superfund Part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) EPA is to identify, evaluate, and remediate hazardous waste sites in the U.S. Key features: A financial fund derived from a tax on chemical and petroleum feedstocks to be used for investigations and cleanups. A National Contingency Plan (NCP) for selecting sites for cleanup, including creation of a National Priorities List (NPL). Authority for the EPA to clean up sites itself or to identify responsible parties to clean up the sites. A liability provision to collect damages from responsible parties. Superfund uses joint and several liability. Leads to large legal costs Estimates range from 7% to 41% of cleanup costs go to legal and other transactions costs Advantages of liability It is very decentralized and requires less information. To regulate, information must be known before regulation put in place. For liability, dont need information until after damages are done. Note that this helps deal with monitoring problems that can occur with toxins. Disadvantages of liability If the hazard is common, it makes more sense to regulate than to have each case go to court. Suits might not always be brought against violators. Uncertainty about the legal process: If penalties will push firms into bankruptcy, they will not have to pay, and thus will not take proper precautions. o o Alternatively, if a firm is risk averse, they may take too much precaution, because they may fear an unfavorable court ruling. A new policy option that deals with the problem of joint and several liability are brownfields . o Because firms dont want to buy potential Superfund sites, the EPA now gives some waivers to purchasers of abandoned sites. o Often done at state level. Can work in different ways: Protection from liability Generally, firms avoid liability as long as they dont further contaminate the site. Different cleanup standards depending on future uses of the land. Providing financial assistance for cleanup. o Brownfields Revitalization and Environmental Restoration Act Signed January 11, 2002. Provides new grants for brownfields development Reduces liability of purchasers by allowing states that keep public records of sites to issue liability waivers. Finally, since imperfect information is one of the market failures with toxic substances, some policies simply provide information. o Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) Cradle to grave management approach for hazardous waste. Note that this is broader than just toxic chemicals, but all sorts of waste that pose substantial threat to the environment (e.g. heavy metals). Goal is waste management strategies to control waste than cannot be eliminated, rather than trying to reduce waste. 1984 reauthorization put more emphasis on treatment technologies and reducing waste. Makes it more difficult to dispose of untreated hazardous waste. Both encourages treatment, but also substitution away from hazardous waste, since it raises costs. Major components: Identification of hazardous wastes However, only 4-5% of wastes are shipped off site. Most large firms manage wastes on premises. Costs fall mainly on smaller firms. Might it encourage illegal dumping. National manifest system for tracking and monitoring movement of waste Makes sure waste is accounted for at each step of transport, and that it reaches its final destination (no illegal dumping) Permit system for treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) Develops standards for TSDFs Focus for permits and standards is to reduce groundwater contamination. A concern is that uniform standards do not take local conditions into account, so may be too costly. In addition to these laws, some states charge waste disposal fees for hazardous wastes. Some countries, such as Demark and Finland, also do this. Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) requires companies to report their releases of 450 chemicals known or suspected to be toxic. (We'll discuss TRI more on Monday). Passed in 1986 Data first made public in 1989 Bad publicity led to reductions in toxic emissions Releases of the 17 most toxic chemicals fell 51% from 1988 to 1994 Note that this law introduced no new limits Rather, just the information provided led to reduced level of toxins! The ability of citizens to make use of information seems important. Reductions are greater in areas with higher incomes and/or education. o
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Rutgers - ECON - 332
I. What is Voluntary Compliance?Policy makers and environmentalists have paid increasing attention to voluntaryenvironmental programs, in which firms improve environmental performance beyond what isrequired by regulation.Key questions include:oWhy d
Rutgers - ECON - 332
.Federalism and Environmental Protection: Theory There are three key theoretical questions:1. Choosing the extent of environmental control2. Deciding on the methods of pollution control to use3. Determining and funding the basic research agenda for a
Rutgers - ECON - 332
I. What is Environmental Economics? Economics is the study of the allocation of scarce resources.o Note that the theories of economics can be applied to any scarce resource, not justtraditional commodities.o Economics is not simply about profits or mo
Rutgers - ECON - 332
I. The Invisible Hand The goal of today's lecture is to discuss why the free market may fail, and to discuss theconsequences when that happens. To begin, we must consider how the market should function. Adam Smith, who coined the phrase "The Invisible
Rutgers - ECON - 421
1. You are forecasting future commodity prices, like gold and silver prices. Describe a goodmethod to check the accuracy of your forecast.2. What is autocorrelation in terms of a linear regression model?How can you detect an AR(1) process?How do you c
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 21. Review of MatricesThe ability to manipulate matrices is critical in economics.1. Matrix a rectangular array of numbers, parameters, or variablesplaced in rows and columns.Matrices are associated with linear equations.Elements aij d
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 31. Types of economic variables(i) Continuous variable takes on a continuum in the sample space,such as all points on a line or all real numbersExample: GDP, Pollution concentration, etc.(ii) Discrete variables finite number of elements
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 41. Confidence IntervalsPoint estimate is a single number, like To calculate a confidence interval, we start with the following equation:j j t Pr tc 1 cstd .error jwhere Pr denotes probabilitytc the critical value from the t-dist
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 51. Goodness-of-FitThe goodness-of-fit measure is, R2.R2 1SSESSTIf R2 = 0, then no fitIf R2 = 1, then a perfect linear fitAlso, n = k which is algebraic systemProblem As the number of x variables increases, R2 always getslargerAdj
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 61. Autocorrelation (or Serial Correlation)1. DefinitionA problem usually for time series dataThe error terms, ut, are supposed to be randomHowever, they are related by timeThe error terms are correlatedUsing the covariance term, then
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 81. Trend Forecasting (or Trend Extrapolation)1. PolynomialsYt 1 2 t 32 t 2 u tYt is the series you want to forecastt is the trend variableStart t =1ut is the noise termNote then you use adjusted R2, AIC, or SIC to choose the bestmo
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 91. Time Series Analysis1. Examine data collected over time.Models are simpleNo independent variables, i.e. no xsModels are mechanicalTime series is both(i)Data(ii)A processObservations are related to each other over time, i.e. co
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 101. Stationary f ancy word1. Stationary time series does not depend on time.Does not vary with timeWeakly stationary the mean and variance of a time series doesnot vary with timeExamplesI means integrativeIntegration is the branch o
Rutgers - ECON - 421
Lecture Notes 11. Economic Forecasting1. Forecasting the process of estimating or predicting unknownsituationsExample usually economists predict future economic variablesForecasting applies to a variety of data(1) time series data predicting future
Rutgers - ECON - 421
1. What is an unbiased estimator?How do econometricians measure an estimator's bias?What do econometricians mean by efficiency?What does Mean Squared Error do for us?2. What are time-series, cross-sectional, and panel data?Does the type of data matte
Rutgers - ECON - 406
(Lecture 1)Game Theory is a misnomer for Multiperson Decision Theory, analyzing the decisionmakingprocess when there are more than one decision-makers where each agents payoffpossibly depends on the actions taken by the other agents. Since an agents pr
Rutgers - ECON - 406
1 The basic theory of choiceWe consider a set X of alternatives. Alternatives are mutually exclusive in the sensethat one cannot choose two distinct alternatives at the same time. We also take the setof feasible alternatives exhaustive so that a player
Rutgers - ECON - 406
We will formally define the games and some solution concepts, such as Nash Equilibrium,and discuss the assumptions behind these solution concepts.In order to analyze a game, we need to know who the players are, which actions are available to them, ho
Rutgers - ECON - 406
Howtoplay?We will now describe the most common solution concepts for normal-form games. Wewill first describe the concept of dominant strategy equilibrium, which is implied bythe rationality of the players. We then discuss rationalizability which corre
Rutgers - ECON - 406
Nash EquilibriumConsider the battle of the sexesMan\Woman opera balletopera 1,4 0,0ballet 0,0 4,1In this game, there is no dominant strategy. But suppose W is playing opera. Then,the best thing M can do is to play opera, too. Thus opera is a best-re
Rutgers - ECON - 406
What are the implications of rationality and players knowledge of payoffs? Whatcan we infer more if we also assume that players know that the other players are rational?What is the limit of predictive power we obtain as we make more and more assumptions
Rutgers - ECON - 406
Many relationships can be taken as a partnership in which two partners provide an inputtowards an outcome that they will share. For example, in a firm, the employer and theworker provide capital, know-how, and effort to produce a good that will generate
Rutgers - ECON - 406
Backwards inductionThe concept of backwards induction corresponds to the assumption that it is commonknowledge that each player will act rationally at each node where he moves even ifhis rationality would imply that such a node will not be reached.1 Me
Rutgers - ECON - 406
ExampleIn order to see the basic idea, consider the following game.S 0,0 1,3B 3,1 0,0BS1Out In(2,2)In this game, player 1 has option of staying out and getting the payoff of 2, ratherthan playing the battle of sexes game with player 2. Now the ba
Rutgers - ECON - 406
Repeated GamesIn these notes, well discuss the repeated games, the games where a particular smaller game isrepeated; the small game is called the stage game. The stage game is repeated regardless ofwhat has been played in the previous games. For our an
Rutgers - ECON - 406
Static Games with Incomplete InformationAn incomplete information game is a game where a party knows something that some otherparty does not know. For instance, a player may not know another players utility function,while the player himself knows his u
Rutgers - ECON - 406
Dynamic Games with Incomplete InformationIn these lectures, we analyze the issues arise in a dynamics context in the presence ofincomplete information, such as how agents should interpret the actions the other partiestake. We define perfect Bayesian Na
Rutgers - ECON - 406
ReputationConsider a game in which a player i has two types, say A and B. Imagine that if theother players believe that i is of type A, then is equilibrium payoff will be much higherthan his equilibrium payoff when the other players believe that he is
Rutgers - ECON - 406
strategic interactions, a party often knows something that is relevant to the problembut is not known by some other party. In that case, we say that players have asymmetricinformation. When you are interacting with parties that have private information,
Rutgers - ECON - 395
I. Externalities: The conventional analysisA. The simple argument for efficiency:ooooB. The problem:oooooooo1. The EPA or equivalent decides who can pollute how much where, whatmethods of pollution reduction have to be used, etc.2. The p
Rutgers - ECON - 395
I. Insurance: why it is interesting:o A. Because one recurring legal issue is who will bear the costs ifsomething goes wrong-i.e. who is insuring whom. For example:1. Contracts. Something changes, so either I don't want to produce what Iagreed to or
Rutgers - ECON - 395
I. Strategic behavior:o A. Bilateral monopoly.o1. Economic example: I have the only apple, worth $1 to me. You are theonly customer, and value it at $2. If we can agree on a price, there is a netgain of $1 to be divided between us, with the division
Rutgers - ECON - 395
I: What is property?o A. we take the institution for granted-for familiar thingso B. But it is a specific kind of rule and concept, as you can see byapplying it in less familiar contexts. My obligations to you are good onlyagainst me, but your owners
Rutgers - ECON - 395
Digression on simplified pictures.o A. In thinking through the logic of a problem, whether in physics,mathematics, or economics, we frequently use simplified pictures,designed to bring out the particular issue we are interested in.o B. For example, w
Rutgers - ECON - 395
If we do want to enforce the contract, how do you fill in the details?o A. By what would be efficient, eitheroB. Who should bear risks? We've been here beforeo1. Because we want efficient law, or2. Because that predicts what they would have agreed
Rutgers - ECON - 395
It is often claimed that, when I have a child, I impose net costs on others,so that leaving people free to decide how many children they have willresult in overpopulation.o A. But it is not clear what the sign of the net externalities from myhaving a
Rutgers - ECON - 395
Summary of implications:A. Assume one dimension (care) is observable by the court, another (activitylevel) is unobservable.oo1. Note that "care" and "activity level" are merely convenient examples.2. The real categories are "activities with regard
Rutgers - ECON - 395
Criminal Law: A. Like tort law, someone does a wrong, we impose a cost on him, but .oooooB. Note that the Tort/Crime distinction may be less clear than we usually think.ooooooo1. Optimal level of some offenses is close to zero2. Most obvio
Rutgers - ECON - 395
Why benefits to criminals count:A. The lost hunter problem.oooB. Even if you want to deter it, how much do you want to deter it?ooooo1. If a hunter is lost and starving and comes to a locked, empty cabin containingfood and a telephone, it is
Rutgers - ECON - 395
I. Antitrust Lawo A. Monopoly produces an inefficient outcomeoB. One approach to eliminating the inefficient outcome is to preventmonopolies from existing.o1. Not workable for a real natural monopoly.2. But perhaps for preventing monopoly-by-merge
Rutgers - ECON - 395
Summary before First MidtermI. What is economics, what does it have to do with law?II. What is economic efficiency (aka "wealth maximization")?o A. Important to L&E for two reasons:oB. Judging rules, outcomes by the summed effect on everyone, whereo
Rutgers - ECON - 395
Review before the Second Midterm I: Determining property rules involves a set of questions:A. How rights should be bundled (Coase article, our earlier discussion)B. How should you be allowed to defend your property rights (property vsliability)C. Wh
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UCSD - CHEM - 140A
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