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Ch04Ex9
Course: MGMT 408, Spring 2012School: Buena Vista
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Word Count: 125
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4: CHAPTER Example 9 Forecasting 12 seasons Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8 Period 9 Period 10 Period 11 Period 12 Period 13 Period 14 Period 15 Period 16 Period 17 Period 18 Period 19 Period 20 Period 21 Period 22 Period 23 Period 24 Period 25 Period 26 Period 27 Period 28 Period 29 Period 30 Period 31 Period 32 Period 33 Period 34 Period 35 Period 36...
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4: CHAPTER Example 9
Forecasting
12 seasons
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Period 8
Period 9
Period 10
Period 11
Period 12
Period 13
Period 14
Period 15
Period 16
Period 17
Period 18
Period 19
Period 20
Period 21
Period 22
Period 23
Period 24
Period 25
Period 26
Period 27
Period 28
Period 29
Period 30
Period 31
Period 32
Period 33
Period 34
Period 35
Period 36
Multiplicative decomposition
Enter past demands in the data area. Do not change the time period
numbers!
Demand (y) Time (x)
80
70
80
90
113
110
100
88
85
77
75
82
85
85
93
95
125
115
102
102
90
78
82
78
105
85
82
115
131
120
113
110
95
85
83
80
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Ratio
Seasonal Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted
Error
|Error|
Error^2
Abs Pct Err
94 0.8510638 0.9574468 83.555556 85.859977 82.206361 -2.2063609 2.2063609 4.8680285
02.76%
94 0.7446809 0.8510638
82.25 86.325121 73.468188 -3.4681882 3.4681882 12.028329
04.95%
94 0.8510638 0.9042553 88.470588 86.790265 78.480559 1.5194409 1.5194409 2.3087008
01.90%
94 0.9574468 1.0638298
84.6 87.255409 92.824904 -2.8249037 2.8249037 7.980081
03.14%
94 1.2021277 1.3085106 86.357724 87.720554 114.78328 -1.7832777 1.7832777 3.1800792
01.58%
94 1.1702128 1.2234043 89.913043 88.185698 107.88676 2.113242 2.113242 4.4657918
01.92%
94 1.0638298 1.1170213 89.52381 88.650842 99.024877 0.9751233 0.9751233 0.9508654
00.98%
94 0.9361702 1.0638298
82.72 89.115986 94.804241 -6.8042406 6.8042406 46.29769
07.73%
94 0.9042553 0.9574468 88.777778 89.58113 85.769167 -0.7691674 0.7691674 0.5916184
00.90%
94 0.8191489 0.8510638
90.475 90.046275 76.635127 0.3648727 0.3648727 0.1331321
00.47%
94 0.7978723 0.8510638
88.125 90.511419 77.030995 -2.0309946 2.0309946 4.1249392
02.71%
94 0.8723404 0.8510638
96.35 90.976563 77.426862 4.573138 4.573138 20.913591
05.58%
94 0.9042553 0.9574468 88.777778 91.441707 87.550571 -2.5505706 2.5505706 6.5054103
03.00%
94 0.9042553 0.8510638
99.875 91.906851 78.218597 6.7814032 6.7814032 45.98743
07.98%
94 0.9893617 0.9042553 102.84706 92.371995 83.527868 9.4721318 9.4721318 89.721281
10.19%
94 1.0106383 1.0638298
89.3 92.83714 98.762914 -3.7629144 3.7629144 14.159525
03.96%
94 1.3297872 1.3085106 95.528455 93.302284 122.08703 2.9129691 2.9129691 8.4853893
02.33%
94 1.2234043 1.2234043
94 93.767428 114.71547 0.2845297 0.2845297 0.0809571
00.25%
94 1.0851064 1.1170213 91.314286 94.232572 105.25979 -3.259788 3.259788 10.626218
03.20%
94 1.0851064 1.0638298
95.88 94.697716 100.74225 1.2577487 1.2577487 1.5819317
01.23%
94 0.9574468 0.9574468
94 95.16286 91.113377 -1.113377 1.113377 1.2396084
01.24%
94 0.8297872 0.8510638
91.65 81.385536 95.628005 -3.3855358 3.3855358 11.461853
04.34%
94 0.8723404 0.8510638
96.35 96.093149 81.781403 0.2185968 0.2185968 0.0477846
00.27%
94 0.8297872 0.8510638
91.65 96.558293 82.177271 -4.1772706 4.1772706 17.44959
05.36%
94 1.1170213 0.9574468 109.66667 97.023437 92.89478 12.10522 12.10522 146.53635
11.53%
94 0.9042553 0.8510638
99.875 97.488581 82.969005 2.0309946 2.0309946 4.1249392
02.39%
94 0.8723404 0.9042553 90.682353 97.953725 88.575177 -6.5751773 6.5751773 43.232956
08.02%
94 1.2234043 1.0638298
108.1 98.41887 104.70093 10.299075 10.299075 106.07094
08.96%
94 1.393617 1.3085106 100.11382 98.884014 129.39078 1.609216 1.609216 2.589576
01.23%
94 1.2765957 1.2234043 98.086957 99.349158 121.54418 -1.5441827 1.5441827 2.3845001
01.29%
94 1.2021277 1.1170213 101.1619 99.814302 111.4947 1.5053008 1.5053008 2.2659304
01.33%
94 1.1702128 1.0638298
103.4 100.27945 106.68026 3.3197379 3.3197379 11.02066
03.02%
94 1.0106383 0.9574468 99.222222 100.74459 96.457587 -1.4575867 1.4575867 2.1245589
01.53%
94 0.9042553 0.8510638
99.875 101.20973 86.135944 -1.1359444 1.1359444 1.2903697
01.34%
94 0.8829787 0.8510638
97.525 101.67488 86.531812 -3.5318118 3.5318118 12.473695
04.26%
94 0.8510638 0.8510638
94 102.14002 86.927679 -6.9276792 6.9276792 47.992739
08.66%
Total
2.0337687 120.65171 697.29704
131.50%
Average
Intercept
85.394833
0.0564936 3.3514364 19.369362
03.65%
Slope
0.4651442
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE
5.6298597
Average
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Ratios
Season 1
Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7 Season 8 Season 9 Season 10 Season 11 Season 12
0.85106383 0.7446809 0.8510638 0.9574468 1.2021277 1.1702128 1.0638298 0.9361702 0.9042553 0.8191489 0.7978723 0.8723404
0.904255319 0.9042553 0.9893617 1.0106383 1.3297872 1.2234043 1.0851064 1.0851064 0.9574468 0.8297872 0.8723404 0.8297872
1.117021277 0.9042553 0.8723404 1.2234043 1.393617 1.2765957 1.2021277 1.1702128 1.0106383 0.9042553 0.8829787 0.8510638
0.957446809 0.8510638 0.9042553 1.0638298 1.3085106 1.2234043 1.1170213 1.0638298 0.9574468 0.8510638 0.8510638 0.8510638
Average
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
102.6051672 0.9574468 98.23899
103.0703114 0.8510638 87.719414
103.5354556 0.9042553 93.622486
104.0005997 1.0638298 110.63894
104.4657439 1.3085106 136.69454
104.9308881 1.2234043 128.37289
105.3960322 1.1170213 117.72961
105.8611764 1.0638298 112.61827
106.3263206 0.9574468 101.8018
106.7914648 0.8510638 90.886353
107.2566089 0.8510638 91.28222
107.7217531 0.8510638 91.678088
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Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
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Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
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