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### Ch04Ex9

Course: MGMT 408, Spring 2012
School: Buena Vista
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Word Count: 125

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4: CHAPTER Example 9 Forecasting 12 seasons Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8 Period 9 Period 10 Period 11 Period 12 Period 13 Period 14 Period 15 Period 16 Period 17 Period 18 Period 19 Period 20 Period 21 Period 22 Period 23 Period 24 Period 25 Period 26 Period 27 Period 28 Period 29 Period 30 Period 31 Period 32 Period 33 Period 34 Period 35 Period 36...

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4: CHAPTER Example 9 Forecasting 12 seasons Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8 Period 9 Period 10 Period 11 Period 12 Period 13 Period 14 Period 15 Period 16 Period 17 Period 18 Period 19 Period 20 Period 21 Period 22 Period 23 Period 24 Period 25 Period 26 Period 27 Period 28 Period 29 Period 30 Period 31 Period 32 Period 33 Period 34 Period 35 Period 36 Multiplicative decomposition Enter past demands in the data area. Do not change the time period numbers! Demand (y) Time (x) 80 70 80 90 113 110 100 88 85 77 75 82 85 85 93 95 125 115 102 102 90 78 82 78 105 85 82 115 131 120 113 110 95 85 83 80 Forecasts and Error Analysis Ratio Seasonal Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted Error |Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err 94 0.8510638 0.9574468 83.555556 85.859977 82.206361 -2.2063609 2.2063609 4.8680285 02.76% 94 0.7446809 0.8510638 82.25 86.325121 73.468188 -3.4681882 3.4681882 12.028329 04.95% 94 0.8510638 0.9042553 88.470588 86.790265 78.480559 1.5194409 1.5194409 2.3087008 01.90% 94 0.9574468 1.0638298 84.6 87.255409 92.824904 -2.8249037 2.8249037 7.980081 03.14% 94 1.2021277 1.3085106 86.357724 87.720554 114.78328 -1.7832777 1.7832777 3.1800792 01.58% 94 1.1702128 1.2234043 89.913043 88.185698 107.88676 2.113242 2.113242 4.4657918 01.92% 94 1.0638298 1.1170213 89.52381 88.650842 99.024877 0.9751233 0.9751233 0.9508654 00.98% 94 0.9361702 1.0638298 82.72 89.115986 94.804241 -6.8042406 6.8042406 46.29769 07.73% 94 0.9042553 0.9574468 88.777778 89.58113 85.769167 -0.7691674 0.7691674 0.5916184 00.90% 94 0.8191489 0.8510638 90.475 90.046275 76.635127 0.3648727 0.3648727 0.1331321 00.47% 94 0.7978723 0.8510638 88.125 90.511419 77.030995 -2.0309946 2.0309946 4.1249392 02.71% 94 0.8723404 0.8510638 96.35 90.976563 77.426862 4.573138 4.573138 20.913591 05.58% 94 0.9042553 0.9574468 88.777778 91.441707 87.550571 -2.5505706 2.5505706 6.5054103 03.00% 94 0.9042553 0.8510638 99.875 91.906851 78.218597 6.7814032 6.7814032 45.98743 07.98% 94 0.9893617 0.9042553 102.84706 92.371995 83.527868 9.4721318 9.4721318 89.721281 10.19% 94 1.0106383 1.0638298 89.3 92.83714 98.762914 -3.7629144 3.7629144 14.159525 03.96% 94 1.3297872 1.3085106 95.528455 93.302284 122.08703 2.9129691 2.9129691 8.4853893 02.33% 94 1.2234043 1.2234043 94 93.767428 114.71547 0.2845297 0.2845297 0.0809571 00.25% 94 1.0851064 1.1170213 91.314286 94.232572 105.25979 -3.259788 3.259788 10.626218 03.20% 94 1.0851064 1.0638298 95.88 94.697716 100.74225 1.2577487 1.2577487 1.5819317 01.23% 94 0.9574468 0.9574468 94 95.16286 91.113377 -1.113377 1.113377 1.2396084 01.24% 94 0.8297872 0.8510638 91.65 81.385536 95.628005 -3.3855358 3.3855358 11.461853 04.34% 94 0.8723404 0.8510638 96.35 96.093149 81.781403 0.2185968 0.2185968 0.0477846 00.27% 94 0.8297872 0.8510638 91.65 96.558293 82.177271 -4.1772706 4.1772706 17.44959 05.36% 94 1.1170213 0.9574468 109.66667 97.023437 92.89478 12.10522 12.10522 146.53635 11.53% 94 0.9042553 0.8510638 99.875 97.488581 82.969005 2.0309946 2.0309946 4.1249392 02.39% 94 0.8723404 0.9042553 90.682353 97.953725 88.575177 -6.5751773 6.5751773 43.232956 08.02% 94 1.2234043 1.0638298 108.1 98.41887 104.70093 10.299075 10.299075 106.07094 08.96% 94 1.393617 1.3085106 100.11382 98.884014 129.39078 1.609216 1.609216 2.589576 01.23% 94 1.2765957 1.2234043 98.086957 99.349158 121.54418 -1.5441827 1.5441827 2.3845001 01.29% 94 1.2021277 1.1170213 101.1619 99.814302 111.4947 1.5053008 1.5053008 2.2659304 01.33% 94 1.1702128 1.0638298 103.4 100.27945 106.68026 3.3197379 3.3197379 11.02066 03.02% 94 1.0106383 0.9574468 99.222222 100.74459 96.457587 -1.4575867 1.4575867 2.1245589 01.53% 94 0.9042553 0.8510638 99.875 101.20973 86.135944 -1.1359444 1.1359444 1.2903697 01.34% 94 0.8829787 0.8510638 97.525 101.67488 86.531812 -3.5318118 3.5318118 12.473695 04.26% 94 0.8510638 0.8510638 94 102.14002 86.927679 -6.9276792 6.9276792 47.992739 08.66% Total 2.0337687 120.65171 697.29704 131.50% Average Intercept 85.394833 0.0564936 3.3514364 19.369362 03.65% Slope 0.4651442 Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 5.6298597 Average 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Ratios Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7 Season 8 Season 9 Season 10 Season 11 Season 12 0.85106383 0.7446809 0.8510638 0.9574468 1.2021277 1.1702128 1.0638298 0.9361702 0.9042553 0.8191489 0.7978723 0.8723404 0.904255319 0.9042553 0.9893617 1.0106383 1.3297872 1.2234043 1.0851064 1.0851064 0.9574468 0.8297872 0.8723404 0.8297872 1.117021277 0.9042553 0.8723404 1.2234043 1.393617 1.2765957 1.2021277 1.1702128 1.0106383 0.9042553 0.8829787 0.8510638 0.957446809 0.8510638 0.9042553 1.0638298 1.3085106 1.2234043 1.1170213 1.0638298 0.9574468 0.8510638 0.8510638 0.8510638 Average Forecasts Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted 102.6051672 0.9574468 98.23899 103.0703114 0.8510638 87.719414 103.5354556 0.9042553 93.622486 104.0005997 1.0638298 110.63894 104.4657439 1.3085106 136.69454 104.9308881 1.2234043 128.37289 105.3960322 1.1170213 117.72961 105.8611764 1.0638298 112.61827 106.3263206 0.9574468 101.8018 106.7914648 0.8510638 90.886353 107.2566089 0.8510638 91.28222 107.7217531 0.8510638 91.678088
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Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
TESTForecasting Multiple regressionEnter the data in the shaded area. To get a forecast use the shaded data area at the bottom left of the sheet.Data Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Coefficients ForecastYx 1Err:502 Err:502Err:
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 12: Example 1InventoryABC AnalysisEnter the unit costs and the unit volumes into the shaded data area. NOTE: The dollar volume in column F (but notin column L) is adjusted to prevent ties.DataDollarVolume Rank Item1 102862 115263 127604
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Chapter 12: Example 3InventoryEconomic Order Quantity ModelEnter the data in the shaded areaDataDemand rate, DSetup cost, SHolding cost, HUnit Price, PDaily demand rateLead time in days1000100.5 (fixed amount)Inventory: Cost vs Quantity2 50
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 12: Example 8InventoryProduction Order Quantity ModelEnter the data in the shaded area. You may have to do some work to enter thedaily production rate.DataDemand rate, DSetup cost, SHolding cost, HDaily production rate, pDaily demand rat
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Chapter 12: Example 9InventoryQuantity Discount ModelEnter the data in the shaded area. The minimum quantity is the minimum amount that needs to beordered in order to get the price that is in the same column.DataDemand rate, DSetup cost, SHolding
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
YourResultsfor:&quot;MultipleChoice&quot;SiteTitle: OperationsManagement,10/eandPrinciplesofOperationsManagement,8/eBookTitle: OperationsManagement,10/eandPrinciplesofOperationsManagement,8/eBookAuthor: HeizerPrintthispageSummaryofResults40%Correctof15Sco
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
YourResultsfor:&quot;MultipleChoice&quot;SiteTitle: OperationsManagement,10/eandPrinciplesofOperationsManagement,8/eBookTitle: OperationsManagement,10/eandPrinciplesofOperationsManagement,8/eBookAuthor: HeizerPrintthispageSummaryofResults29%Correctof17Sco
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 1DISCUSSION QUESTIONS8.The three classic functions are:(a)Marketing(b)Operations(c)Finance/Accounting10.Registration systems will differ, but will likely possess the following characteristics:Inputs:n Course offerings list:A list of
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 2DISCUSSION QUESTIONSHow do the following firms achieve competitive advantage? (Answer in terms of differentiation, lowcost, and response, and the six strategies in Figure 2.3 on page 37.)a. Wal-MartWal-Mart strives to be a low cost provider
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 4DISCUSSION QUESTIONS3.A time series model uses only historical values of the quantity of interest to predict future valuesof that quantity. The associative model, on the other hand, attempts to identify underlying causesor factors that contr
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 5DISCUSSION QUESTIONS5.CAD advantages include:n lower cost and better designsn feeding information forward to such departments as purchasing, manufacturing, and technicaldocumentationn encouraging integration of information with all departm
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 6DISCUSSION QUESTIONS4.A university can seek to control the quality of its graduates by:Setting specific goals for its overall accomplishmentsEmploying quality facultySetting appropriate standards (prerequisites, GPA, required credit hours,
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
SUPPLEMENT 6DISCUSSION QUESTIONS2.The ultimate goal of the X and R-charts is to ascertain, by a sampling procedure, that the relevantparameter is kept within specific upper and lower bounds. The X bar chart alone tells us only thatthe average or vari
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 7END-OF-CHAPTER PROBLEMS7.5utilization =actual5,000== 0.7143 71%design capacity 7,0007.6efficiency =actual4,500== 0.9 or 90%effective capacity 5,0007.7actual(planned) outputactual(planned) outputor 0.80 =.designed capacity7,0
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 8DISCUSSION QUESTIONS5.Service location decisions tend to focus on the revenue function, whereasmanufacturing/industrial location decisions tend to focus on costs. The service sector usestechniques such as:n Correlation analysisn Traffic co
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 9DISCUSSION QUESTIONS4.(a)(b)5.(a)(b)The advantages of a product layout are:nThe use of special purpose equipment can make the overall process more efficientnIndividual workloads can usually be made to be relatively equivalentnIt usu
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 11DISCUSSION QUESTIONS4.The adversarial relationship must be changed dramatically to one of trust and the establishment oflong-term relationships.6.An organization moving to JIT deliveries must ensure that the supplier is capable of deliveri
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 12DISCUSSION QUESTIONS1.The advent of low-cost computing should not be seen as obviating the need for the ABCinventory classification scheme. Although the cost of computing has decreased considerably, thecost of data acquisition has not decre
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 12SDISCUSSION QUESTIONS4.A pull system is a JIT system that moves material only as it is needed. A push system sendsmaterial to the next workstation at the convenience of the sender, not as it is needed. Thus theinventory level can get very l
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 15DISCUSSION QUESTIONS1.Five priority sequencing rules are:n First come, first served (FCFS); or First in, first out (FIFO): Jobs are sequenced in the order inwhich they arrive at the workstation.n Earliest due date (EDD): Jobs are sequenced
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. The phrase Six Sigma has two meanings. One is statistical, referring to an extremely high process capability; theother is a comprehensive system for achieving and sustaining business success.A) T
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. Technology, location, and layout decisions are all possible constraints on the human resource strategy.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 1.0/1.0Correct Answer(s): True2. Job rotation is an example
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. Developing long-term, &quot;partnering&quot; relationships with a few suppliers is a long-standing American purchasingstrategy.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 1.0/1.0Correct Answer(s): False2. The bullwh
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. The reorder point is the inventory level at which action is taken to replenish the stocked item.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 1.0/1.0Correct Answer(s): True2. The fixed-period inventory model
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
CHAPTER 12: Example 8InventoryProduction Order Quantity ModelEnter the data in the shaded area. You may have to do some work to enter thedaily production rate.DataDemand rate, DSetup cost, SHolding cost, HDaily production rate, pDaily demand rat
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. The use of part-time workers as an aggregate planning option may be less costly than using full-time workers,but may also reduce quality levels.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 1.0/1.0Correct Ans
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. Lead times, inventory availability, and purchase orders outstanding are among the five things operationsmanagers must know for effective use of MRP.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 1.0/1.0Correct
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. Hidden problems are generally uncovered during the process of reducing inventory.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 1.0/1.0Correct Answer(s): True2. Level scheduling means producing at a constant r
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 100.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. The expected activity time in PERT analysis is calculated asA) the simple average of the optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely timesB) the weighted average of a, m, and b, with m weighted 4
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 145.00Points Missed 5.00Points Ungraded 40.001. The impact of strategies on the general direction and basic character of a company isA) short rangeB) medium rangeC) long rangeD) temporalE) minimalPoints Earned: 5.0/5.0Correct Answ
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. A foundry produces circular utility access hatches (manhole covers). Currently, 120 covers are produced in a 10hour shift. If labor productivity can be increased by 20%, it would then beA) 14.4 co
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 10.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. In PERT analysis, the identification of the critical path can be incorrect if a noncritical activity takessubstantially more than its expected time.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 1.0/1.0Correc
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 100.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic ofA) exponential smoothing including trendB) adaptive smoothingC) trend projecti
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. FedEx chose Memphis, Tennessee, as its U.S. hub becauseA) the city is in the center of the U.S., geographicallyB) the airport has relatively few hours of bad weather closuresC) it needed a means
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 5.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. One guideline for determining the arrangement and space allocation of a retail store is to place high-impulse andhigh-margin items such as housewares and beauty aids in prominent locations.A) Tru
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 100.00Points Missed 0.00Percentage 100%1. For most, if not all organizations, quality is a tactical rather than a strategic issue.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 5.0/5.0Correct Answer(s): False2. Of the several determinants of service
Buena Vista - MGMT - 408
Points Awarded 95.00Points Missed 5.00Percentage 95.0%1. Disaggregation is the process of breaking the aggregate plan into greater detail; one example of this detail is theMaster Production Schedule.A) TrueB) FalsePoints Earned: 5.0/5.0Correct Ans
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