Chap030
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Chap030

Course Number: ECON 110, Spring 2011

College/University: DeVry Fremont

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Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt Chapter 30 Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt QUESTIONS 1. What is the role of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) as it relates to fiscal policy? Use an Internet search to find the names and university affiliations of the present members of the CEA. LO1 Answer: The CEA advises the President on economic matters, and provides recommendations for discretionary fiscal...

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30 Chapter - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt Chapter 30 Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt QUESTIONS 1. What is the role of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) as it relates to fiscal policy? Use an Internet search to find the names and university affiliations of the present members of the CEA. LO1 Answer: The CEA advises the President on economic matters, and provides recommendations for discretionary fiscal policy action. Try http://www.whitehouse.gov for information on CEA. 2. What are governments fiscal policy options for ending severe demand-pull inflation? Which of these fiscal options do you think might be favored by a person who wants to preserve the size of government? A person who thinks the public sector is too large? How does the ratchet effect affect anti-inflationary fiscal policy? LO1 Answer: Options are to reduce government spending, increase taxes, or some combination of both. See Figure 30.2. If the price level is flexible downward, it will fall. In the real world, the goal is to reduce inflationto keep prices from rising so rapidly not to reduce the price level. A person wanting to preserve the size of government might favor a tax hike and would want to preserve government spending programs. Someone who thinks that the public sector is too large might favor cuts in government spending since this would reduce the size of government. The ratchet effect implies that prices are rigid downward. 3. (For students who were assigned Chapter 28) Use the aggregate expenditures model to show how government fiscal policy could eliminate either a recessionary expenditure gap or an inflationary expenditure gap (Figure 28.7). Explain how equal-size increases in G and T could eliminate a recessionary gap and how equal-size decreases in G and T could eliminate an inflationary gap. LO1 Answer: Consider the figure below. At AE 2 there is an inflationary expenditure gap of $500 (assuming full-employment output is $2000). The fiscal authority could increase taxes or decrease expenditures, which will shift the aggregate expenditures schedule down to AE0. At AE1 there is a recessionary expenditure gap of $500 (assuming fullemployment output is $2000). The fiscal authority could decrease taxes or increase expenditures, which will shift the aggregate expenditures schedule up to AE 0. 30-1 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt AE2 3000 Inflationary expenditure gap = $500 AE0 AE1 2000 s u i d n p x t a e r g A ) r a d f s n o l i b ( 1500 Recessionary expenditure gap = $500 1000 Full employment 500 45 1000 2000 3000 Real GDP Equal-size increases (decreases) in G and T could eliminate a recessionary (inflationary) expenditure gap because the multiplier effects of a change in government spending are greater than they are for a change in taxes. The effect of a change in G is found by taking the change in G times the spending multiplier. To find the effect of a change in T, the change must first be multiplied by the MPC (because the tax change will affect both consumption and saving), and then by the spending multiplier. Example: Recessionary (inflationary) expenditure gap of $500 billion, MPC of 0.5. An increase (decrease) in G of $500 billion will generate a $1000 billion increase (decrease) in GDP [$1000 = $500(1/[1-0.5])]. An increase (decrease) in T of $500 billion will generate a $500 billion decrease (increase) in GDP [-$500 = (-$500 x 0.5)(1/[1-0.5])]. Adding the effects of the two changes together will result in a $500 billion increase (decrease) in GDP, just sufficient to close the gap. 4. Some politicians have suggested that the United States enact a constitutional amendment requiring that the Federal government balance its budget annually. Explain why such an amendment, if strictly enforced, would force the government to enact a contractionary fiscal policy whenever the economy experienced a severe recession. LO1 30-2 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt Answer: When the economy enters a recession, net tax revenue falls. Specifically, revenues from income and excise taxes decline as unemployment rises and consumer spending falls. At the same time, transfer payments to help the poor and/or unemployed rise. If tax revenue falls and the government is required to balance the budget, they will be forced to either cut spending or increase taxes both of which are contractionary policies likely to worsen the recession. 5. Briefly state and evaluate the problem of time lags in enacting and applying fiscal policy. Explain the idea of a political business cycle. How might expectations of a near-term policy reversal weaken fiscal policy based on changes in tax rates? What is the crowding-out effect, and why might it be relevant to fiscal policy? In view of your answers, explain the following statement: Although fiscal policy clearly is useful in combating the extremes of severe recession and demand-pull inflation, it is impossible to use fiscal policy to fine-tune the economy to the full-employment, noninflationary level of real GDP and keep the economy there indefinitely. LO1 Answer: It takes time to ascertain the direction in which the economy is moving (recognition lag), to get a fiscal policy enacted into law (administrative lag); and for the policy to have its full effect on the economy (operational lag). Meanwhile, other factors may change, rendering inappropriate a particular fiscal policy. Nevertheless, discretionary fiscal policy is a valuable tool in preventing severe recession or severe demand-pull inflation. A political business cycle is the concept that politicians are more interested in reelection than in stabilizing the economy. Before the election, they enact tax cuts and spending increases to please voters even though this may fuel inflation. After the election, they apply the brakes to restrain inflation; the economy will slow and unemployment will rise. In this view the political process creates economic instability. A decrease in tax rates might be enacted to stimulate consumer spending. If households receive the tax cut but expect it to be reversed in the near future, they may hesitate to increase their spending. Believing that tax rates will rise again (and possibly concerned that they will rise to rates higher than before the tax cut), households may instead save their additional after-tax income in anticipation of needing to pay taxes in the future. The crowding-out effect is the reduction in investment spending caused by the increase in interest rates arising from an increase in government spending, financed by borrowing. The increase in G was designed to increase AD but the resulting increase in interest rates may decrease I. Thus the impact of the expansionary fiscal policy may be reduced. 30-3 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt As suggested, the other answers help explain the quote. While fiscal policy is useful in combating the extremes of severe recession with its built-in safety nets and stabilization tools, and while the built-in stabilizers can also dampen spending during inflationary periods, it is undoubtedly not possible to keep the economy at its fullemployment, noninflationary level of real GDP indefinitely. There is the problem of timing. Each period is different, and the impact of fiscal policy will affect the economy differently depending on the timing of the policy and the severity of the situation. Fiscal policy operates in a political environment in which the unpopularity of higher taxes and specific cuts in spending may dictate that the most appropriate economic policies are ignored for political reasons. Finally, there are offsetting decisions that may be made at any time in the private and/or international sectors. For example, efforts to revive the economy with more government spending could result in reduced private investment or lower net export levels. Even if it were possible to do any fine tuning to get the economy to its ideal level in the first place, it would be virtually impossible to design a continuing fiscal policy that would keep it there, for all of the reasons mentioned above. 6. Explain how built-in (or automatic) stabilizers work. What are the differences between proportional, progressive, and regressive tax systems as they relate to an economys built-in stability? LO2 Answer: In a phrase, net tax revenues vary directly with GDP. When GDP is rising so are tax collections, both income taxes and sales taxes. At the same time, government payoutstransfer payments such as unemployment compensation, and welfareare decreasing. Since net taxes are taxes less transfer payments, net taxes definitely rise with GDP, which dampens the rise in GDP. On the other hand, when GDP drops in a recession, tax collections slow down or actually diminish while transfer payments rise quickly. Thus, net taxes decrease along with GDP, which softens the decline in GDP. A progressive tax system would have the most stabilizing effect of the three tax systems and the regressive tax would have the least built-in stability. This follows from the previous paragraph. A progressive tax increases at an increasing rate as incomes rise, thus having more of a dampening effect on rising incomes and expenditures than would either a proportional or regressive tax. The latter rate would rise more slowly than the rate of increase in GDP with the least effect of the three types. Conversely, in an economic slowdown, a progressive tax falls faster because not only does it decline with income, it becomes proportionately less as incomes fall. This acts as a cushion on declining incomesthe tax bite is less, which leaves more of the lower income for spending. The reverse would be true of a regressive tax that falls, but more slowly than the progressive tax, as incomes decline. 7. Define the cyclically-adjusted budget, explain its significance, and state why it may differ from the actual budget. Suppose the full-employment, noninflationary level of real output is GDP3 (not GDP2) in the economy depicted in Figure 30.3. If the economy is operating at GDP2, instead of GDP3, what is the status of its cyclically-adjusted budget? The status of its current fiscal policy? What change in fiscal policy would you recommend? How would you accomplish that in terms of the G and T lines in the figure? LO3 30-4 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt Answer: The cyclically-adjusted budget measures what the Federal deficit or surplus would be if the economy reached full-employment level of GDP with existing tax and spending policies. If the cyclically-adjusted budget is balanced, then the government is not engaging in either expansionary or contractionary policy, even if, for example, a deficit automatically results when GDP declines. The actual budget is the deficit or surplus that results when revenues and expenditures occur over a year if the economy is not operating at full-employment. Looking at Figure 30.3, if full-employment GDP is GDP 3, then the cyclically-adjusted budget is contractionary since a surplus would exist. Even though the actual budget has no deficit at GDP 2, fiscal policy is contractionary. To move the economy to fullemployment, government should cut taxes or increase spending. You would raise G line or lower T line or combination of each until they intersect at GDP 3. 8. How do economists distinguish between the absolute and relative sizes of the public debt? Why is the distinction important? Distinguish between refinancing the debt and retiring the debt. How does an internally held public debt differ from an externally held public debt? Contrast the effects of retiring an internally held debt and retiring an externally held debt. LO4 Answer: There are two ways of measuring the public debt: (1) measure its absolute dollar size; (2) measure its relative size as a percentage of GDP. The distinction is important because the absolute size doesnt tell you about an economys capacity to repay the debt. The U.S. has the largest public debt of any country, but as a percentage of GDP has a smaller debt than some other nations. This means that the U.S. has greater ability (more income) to service that debt than those countries whose debt is a higher percentage of GDP. Refinancing the public debt simply means rolling over outstanding debtselling new bonds to retire maturing bonds. Retiring the debt means purchasing bonds back from those who hold them or paying the bonds off at maturity. An internally held debt is one in which the bondholders live in the nation having the debt; an externally held debt is one in which the bondholders are citizens of other nations. Paying off an internally held debt would involve buying back government bonds. This could present a problem of income distribution because holders of the government bonds generally have higher incomes than the average taxpayer. But paying off an internally held debt would not burden the economy as a wholethe money used to pay off the debt would stay within the domestic economy. In paying off an externally held debt, people abroad could use the proceeds of the bonds sales to buy products or other assets from the U.S. However, the dollars gained could be simply exchanged for foreign currency and brought back to their home country. This reduces U.S. foreign reserves holdings and may lower dollar exchange rate. 9. True or false? If false, explain why. LO4 a. The total public debt is more relevant to an economy than the public debt as a percentage of GDP. b. An internally held public debt is like a debt of the left hand owed to the right hand. c. The Federal Reserve and Federal government agencies hold more than three-fourths of the public debt. d. The portion of the U.S. debt held by the public (and not by government entities) was larger as a percentage of GDP in 2009 than it was in 2000. 30-5 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt e. As a percentage of GDP, the total U.S. public debt is the highest such debt among the world's advanced industrial nations. Answer: (a) False. See question 30-8. (b) The statement is true about a national debt held internally, but this does not mean a large debt is entirely problem free. (c) False, the Federal Reserve and Federal government held only 43 percent of the public debt in 2009. (d) True, the public debt was 46.7% of GDP in 2009, about 30% in 2000. (e) False, there are a number of countries with a higher public debt as a percentage of GDP (see Global Perspective 30.2) 10. Why might economists be quite concerned if the annual interest payments on the U.S. public debt sharply increased as a percentage of GDP? LO4 Answer: The weight of the debt is not its absolute size. Indeed, if there were no interest to be paid on the debt and refinancing were automatic, there would be no debt -load at all. But interest does have to be paid. Lenders expect that, and to pay the interest the government must either use tax revenues or go deeper into debt. Interest on the debt, then, is important and its weight can best be assessed by noting the size of the interest payments in relation to GDP, since the size of the GDP is a measure of total national income or how much the government can raise in taxes to pay the interest 11. Trace the cause-and-effect chain through which financing and refinancing of the public debt might affect real interest rates, private investment, the stock of capital, and economic growth. How might investment in public capital and complementarities between public capital and private capital alter the outcome of the cause-effect chain? LO4 Answer: Cause and effect chain: Government borrowing to finance the debt competes with private borrowing and drives up the interest rate; the higher interest rate causes a decline in private capital and economic growth slows. However, if public investment complements private investment, private borrowers may be willing to pay higher rates for positive growth opportunities. Productivity and economic growth could rise. 12. LAST WORD What do economists mean when they say Social Security and Medicare are "pay-as-you-go" plans? What are the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, and how long will they have money left in them? What is the key long-run problem of both Social Security and Medicare? Do you favor increasing taxes or do you prefer reducing benefits to fix the problem? Answer: Social Security and Medicare are largely an annual pay-as-you-go plan, meaning that most of the current revenues from the Social Security tax are paid to current Social Security retirees. 30-6 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt Social Security and Medicare trust funds are assets held by these programs to help pay for future projected tax revenue shortfalls. These trust funds hold special issue treasury bonds purchased using the revenue in excess of payouts in past years. The Social Security trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2037. The Medicare trust fund is expected to be depleted by 2017. The key problem is that the United States' population is aging. That is, the fraction of the population over the age of 65 is increasing due to increased longevity and the retirement of the baby boom generation (post WWII birth cohort). Student answers will vary for the following question: Do you favor increasing taxes or do you prefer reducing benefits to fix the problem? PROBLEMS 1. Assume that a hypothetical economy with an MPC of .8 is experiencing severe recession. By how much would government spending have to rise to shift the aggregate demand curve rightward by $25 billion? How large a tax cut would be needed to achieve the same increase in aggregate demand? Determine one possible combination of government spending increases and tax increases that would accomplish the same goal without changing the amount of outstanding debt. LO1 Answers: $5 billion; 6.25 billion; Combining the two effects above, we have an increase in aggregate demand of $25 billion Feedback: Consider the following example. Assume that a hypothetical economy with an MPC of .8 is experiencing severe recession. By how much would government spending have to rise to shift the aggregate demand curve rightward by $25 billion? The first step is to find the expenditure multiplier. expenditure multiplier = 1/(1-MPC) = 1/(1-0.8) = 1/0.2 = 5 The second step is to find the change in government spending required to shift the aggregate demand schedule rightward by $25 billion. Here we use the following relationship. AD = expenditure multiplier x government spending rearranging, government spending = AD/expenditure multiplier government spending = $25 billion/5 $5 = billion Thus, we should increase government spending by $5 billion. How large a tax cut would be needed to achieve the same increase in aggregate demand? The first step is to calculate the tax multiplier. Here we need to recognize that a tax cut will need to move through consumption before impacting the economy. Therefore we need to multiply the tax cut by the MPC before applying the multiplier process. tax multiplier = - (MPC/(1-MPC)) = - (0.8/(1-0.8)) = -(0.8/0.2) = -4 Note that the tax multiplier is negative because changes in taxes and aggregate demand (and aggregate expenditures) are inversely related. The second step is to find the change in taxes required to shift the aggregate demand schedule rightward by $25 billion. Here we use the following relationship. AD = tax multiplier x taxes rearranging, taxes = AD/tax multiplier 30-7 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt taxes = $25 billion/(-4) = -($25 billion/4) = -$6.25 billion Thus, we should cut taxes by 6.25 billion. Determine one possible combination of government spending increases and tax increases (original: decreases) that would accomplish the same goal without changing the amount of outstanding debt. To answer this question we want to use the balanced budget multiplier concept. First, we increase government spending by $25 billion. This results in an increase in aggregate demand of $125 billion. (= 5 (expenditure multiplier) x $25 billion). Second, to finance this government spending of $25 billion we raise taxes by an equivalent amount to ensure the level of outstanding debt does not change. That is, we also increase taxes by $25 billion. This results in a decrease in aggregate demand of $100 billion ( = -4 (tax multiplier) x $25 billion = -$100 billion (decline in AD)). Combining the two effects above, we have an increase in aggregate demand of $25 billion (= $125 (increase from government spending) - $100 (decrease from increase in taxes)). This increase was achieved without increasing the debt. 2. Refer back to the table in Figure 29.7 in the previous chapter. Suppose that aggregate demand increases such that the amount of real output demanded rises by $7 billion at each price level. By what percent will the price level increase? Will this inflation be demand-pull inflation or will it be cost-push inflation? If potential real GDP (that is, full-employment GDP) is $510 billion, what will be the size of the positive GDP gap after the change in aggregate demand? If government wants to use fiscal policy to counter the resulting inflation without changing tax rates, would it increase government spending or decrease it? LO1 Answers: increase by 8 percent; demand-pull inflation; $3 billion; decrease government spending. 30-8 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt Feedback: Consider the following example. Refer to the table and figure below. Suppose that aggregate demand increases such that the amount of real output demanded rises by $7 billion at each price level. By what percent will the price level increase? Will this inflation be demand-pull inflation or will it be cost-push inflation? If potential real GDP (= full-employment GDP) is $510 billion, what will be the size of the positive GDP after the change in aggregate demand? If government wants to use fiscal policy to counter the resulting inflation without changing tax rates, would it increase government spending or decrease it? Real Output Demanded (ORIGINAL) $506 508 510 512 514 Real Output Demanded (NEW) $513 515 517 519 521 Price Level Real Output Supplied 108 104 100 96 92 $513 512 510 507 502 After the increase in real output demanded by $7 billion at each price level we see that the new equilibrium is $513 billion (quantity demanded equals quantity supplied) at the price level 108. The price level increase is 8% (= (108 - 100)/100 = 0.08 (or 8%)). Since this inflation is the result of an increase in aggregate demand this demand-pull inflation. If potential real GDP (= full-employment GDP) is $510 billion, the size of the positive GDP gap after the change in aggregate demand is $3 billion (= $513 billion - $510 billion). 30-9 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt If government wants to use fiscal policy to counter this inflation without changing tax rates, it would decrease government spending. 3. (For students who were assigned Chapter 28) Assume that, without taxes, the consumption schedule for an economy is as shown below: LO1 a. Graph this consumption schedule. What is the size of the MPC? b. Assume that a lump-sum (regressive) tax of $10 billion is imposed at all levels of GDP. Calculate the tax rate at each level of GDP. Graph the resulting consumption schedule and compare the MPC and the multiplier with those of the pretax consumption schedule. c. Now suppose a proportional tax with a 10 percent tax rate is imposed instead of the regressive tax. Calculate and graph the new consumption schedule and note the MPC (tax inclusive) and the multiplier. d. Finally, impose a progressive tax such that the tax rate is 0 percent when GDP is $100, 5 percent at $200, 10 percent at $300, 15 percent at $400, and so forth. Determine and graph the new consumption schedule, noting the effect of this tax system on the MPC (tax inclusive) and the multiplier. e. Use a graph similar to Figure 30.3 to show why proportional and progressive taxes contribute to greater economic stability, while a regressive tax does not. Answer: (a) 0.8 (b) Tax revenue = $10, Disposable Income = $90, Consumption = $112, Tax rate = 10%, same (c) Tax revenue = $10, Disposable Income = $90, Consumption = $112, Tax rate = 10%, different (d) Tax revenue = $0, Disposable Income = $100, Consumption = $120, Tax rate = 0%, MPC = N/A, Multiplier = N/A, different and changes Feedback: Consider the following example. . (For students who were assigned Chapter 28) Assume that, without taxes, the consumption schedule for an economy is as shown below: 30-10 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt a. Graph this consumption schedule. What is the size of the MPC? b. Assume that a lump-sum (regressive) tax of $10 billion is imposed at all levels of GDP. Calculate the tax rate at each level of GDP. Graph the resulting consumption schedule and compare the MPC and the multiplier with those of the pretax consumption schedule. c. Now suppose a proportional tax with a 10 percent tax rate is imposed instead of the regressive tax. Calculate and graph the new consumption schedule and note the MPC (tax inclusive) and the multiplier. d. Finally, impose a progressive tax such that the tax rate is 0 percent when GDP is $100, 5 percent at $200, 10 percent at $300, 15 percent at $400, and so forth. Determine and graph the new consumption schedule, noting the effect of this tax system on the MPC (tax inclusive) and the multiplier. e. Use a graph similar to Figure 30.3 to show why proportional and progressive taxes contribute to greater economic stability, while a regressive tax does not. Part a: The MPC = ( $200 $120 ) billion/ ( $200 $100) billion = 80 / 100 = 0.8 Part b: The lump tax of $10 billion is subtracted from GDP to determine disposable income (= disposable income = GDP - lump sum tax), column 3. Tax Revenue equals the lump sum tax at each level of GDP because, by definition, tax revenue is independent of income or GDP, column 2. To find consumption we use the multiplier in part (a) to determine the decrease in consumption that results from the lump sum tax. Since disposable income falls by $10 billion after the tax, consumption falls by $8 billion (the MPC is 0.8) at every level of GDP (and disposable income), column 4. This implies that the MPC is still 0.8 [= ($192-$112) billion / ($200-$100) billion = 80/100], as before the tax increase. The spending multiplier remains 5 [= 1/(1-0.8) = 1/0.2]. To find the tax rate, divide the tax revenue by GDP for each level of GDP, column 5. The table below summarizes the results. 30-11 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt GDP, billions $100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Tax, billions DI, billions $10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Consumption after tax $ 90 190 290 390 490 590 690 $112 192 272 352 432 512 592 Tax rate, percent billions 10% 5.0 3.33 2.5 2.0 1.67 1.43 Part c: With the 10% tax rate we find the tax revenue by taking 10% of GDP, column 2. We then find disposable income by subtracting the tax revenue from GDP (disposable income = GDP - tax revenue), column 3. Now, to find consumption we use the multiplier in part (a) to determine the decrease in consumption that results from the increase in the taxes paid. For part (c) we must do this at each level of GDP because the taxes paid increase proportionally with GDP. For example, since disposable income falls by $10 billion after the tax at the GDP level of $100 billion, consumption falls by $8 billion (the MPC is 0.8). When GDP equals $200 billion the taxes paid equal $20 billion, so disposable income falls by $20 billion and consumption falls by $16 billion. We do the same exercise at every level of GDP, column 4. Here the net (tax inclusive) marginal propensity to consume is 0.72 (= ($184-$112)/($200-$100)) and the multiplier is 3.57 (= 1/(1-0.72) =1/0.28). Here the MPC (tax inclusive) and multiplier are different because the tax revenue increases as GDP increases, reducing the amount of disposable income households have to consume. GDP, billions $100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Tax, billions DIs billions Consumption after tax, billions $10 20 30 40 50 60 70 $90 180 270 360 450 540 630 $112 184 256 328 400 472 544 Part d: 30-12 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt For this part of the problem we impose a progressive tax such that the tax rate is 0 percent when GDP is $100, 5 percent at $200, 10 percent at $300, 15 percent at $400, and so forth, column 5. Note that this tax structure is not a standard progressive tax system. The tax rate is applied to all income at the different GDP and income levels rather than to the incremental brackets. To find tax revenue we apply the tax rate at each level of GDP. When GDP is $100 billion, the tax rate is 0%, so tax revenue is $0. When GDP is $200 billion, the tax rate is 5%, so tax revenue is $10 billion (applied to the entire $200 billion GDP). When GDP is $300 billion, the tax rate is 10%, so tax revenue is $30 billion. See column 2. Disposable income is found by subtracting taxes paid from GDP, column 3. Now, to find consumption we use the multiplier in part (a) to determine the decrease in consumption that results from the increase in the taxes paid. For part (d) we must do this at each level of GDP because the taxes paid increase with GDP. For example, since disposable income does not change at the GDP level of $100 billion, consumption does not change either (remains at $120 billion). However, when GDP equals $200 billion the taxes paid equal $10 billion, so disposable income falls by $10 billion and consumption falls by $8 billion. When GDP equals $300 billion the taxes paid equal $30 billion, so disposable income falls by $30 billion and consumption falls by $24 billion. We do the same exercise at every level of GDP, column 4. Here the net (tax inclusive) marginal propensity to consume increases as GDP increases because the tax rate on income increases. This implies we need to calculate the MPC for every change in the level of GDP. See column 6. GDP billions $100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Tax, billions DI, billions Consumption after tax Tax rate, percent billions $0 10 30 60 100 150 210 $100 190 270 340 400 450 490 $120 192 256 312 360 400 432 0% 5 10 15 20 25 30 MPC 0.72 0.64 0.56 0.48 0.40 0.32 Part e: The MPC decreases as shown in the right -hand column above. Proportional and (especially) progressive tax systems reduce the size of the MPC and, therefore, the size of the multiplier. A lump-sum tax does not alter the MPC or the multiplier. 30-13 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt NOTE: For instructors who assign the graphs, the following would be true. For each graph (a) through (d), plot the consumption schedule against the GDP. Graph (a) will have a slope of .8 and will cross the 45 degree line at C = GDP = 200. Graph (b) is parallel to (a) but $10 billion below it and will cross the 45 degree line at C = GDP = 150, indicating the multiplier of 5 ($10 billion loss in income leads to $50 billion drop in equilibrium GDP). Graph (c) will not be as steep as (a) or (b) with a slope of .72 and equilibrium between GDP = 200 and GDP = 300 on the diagram. Graph (d) has a decreasing slope so it will not be a straight line. Equilibrium is just beyond GDP = 200. The multiplier is illustrated by noting the change in equilibrium GDP if any curve were to be shifted by a given amount. The multiplier is the ratio of change in equilibrium GDP to the vertical shift. 4. Refer to the accompanying table for Waxwania: L02, LO3 a. What is the marginal tax rate in Waxwania? The average tax rate? Which of the following describes the tax system: proportional, progressive, regressive? b. Suppose Waxwania is producing $600 of real GDP, whereas the potential real GDP (or fullemployment real GDP) is $700. How large is its budget deficit? Its cyclically-adjusted budget deficit? Its cyclically-adjusted budget deficit as a percentage of potential real GDP? Is Waxwanias fiscal policy expansionary or is contractionary? Answers: (a) 20 percent, 20 percent, proportional (b) $40, $20, 2.86 percent; expansionary. Feedback: Consider the following example. Refer to the accompanying table for Waxwania: L02, LO3 Part a: What is the marginal tax rate in Waxwania? The average tax rate? Which of the following describes the tax system: proportional, progressive, regressive? The marginal tax rate is 20%: 30-14 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt marginal tax rate = Tax Revenue/ Real GDP We apply this to every change in Real GDP and find that it is the same for each incremental change of $100 (in a more general setting this does not need to be the case). The average tax rate is also 20% average tax rate = Tax Revenue/Real GDP We apply this to every level of Real GDP and find that it is the same for each level (in a more general setting this does not need to be the case). Since the average tax rate does not change as income (Real GDP) increases the tax system is proportional. Part b: Suppose Waxwania is producing $600 of real GDP, whereas the potential real GDP (= full-employment real GDP) is $700. How large is its budget deficit? Its cyclicallyadjusted budget deficit? Its cyclically-adjusted budget deficit as a percentage of potential real GDP? Is Waxwanias fiscal policy expansionary or is contractionary? If Waxwania is producing $600 of real GDP, the budget deficit equals $40 billion (= $160 (Government Spending at $600) - $120 (Government revenue at $600)). If potential real GDP (= full-employment real GDP) is $700, then the cyclically-adjusted budget deficit is $20 billion (= $160 (Government Spending at $700) - $140 (Government revenue at $700)). Thus, the cyclically-adjusted budget deficit as a percentage of potential real GDP equals 2.86% ( = $20/$700 = 0.02857 or approx 2.86%). Since the government is running a cyclically-adjusted budget deficit, this fiscal policy is expansionary. 5. Suppose that a country has no public debt in year 1 but experiences a budget deficit of $40 billion in year 1, a budget deficit of $20 billion in year 2, a budget surplus of $10 billion in year 3, and a budget deficit of $2 billion in year 4. What is the absolute size of its public debt in year 4? If its real GDP in year 4 is $104 billion, what is this countrys public debt as a percentage of real GDP in year 4? LO4 Answers: $52 billion; 50 percent. Feedback: Consider the following example. Suppose that a country has no public debt in year 1 but experiences a budget deficit of $40 billion in year 1, a budget deficit of $20 billion in year 2, a budget surplus of $10 billion in year 3, and a budget deficit of $2 billion in year 4. What is the absolute size of its public debt in year 4? If its real GDP in year 4 is $104 billion, what is this countrys public debt as a percentage of real GDP in year 4? Public debt is the sum of deficits and surpluses (negative deficits) over time. Since the country started year 1 with no public debt, the country's debt at the end of year 4 is $52 billion (= $40 (deficit year 1) + $20 (deficit year 2) - $10 (surplus year 3, negative deficit) + $2 (deficit year 4)). If real GDP in year 4 is $104 billion, this countrys public debt as a percentage of real GDP in year 4 is 50% =( $52 (debt)/$104 (GDP) = 0.5 or 50%). 30-15 Chapter 30 - Fiscal Policy, Deficits, and Debt 6. Suppose that the investment demand curve in a certain economy is such that investment declines by $100 billion for every 1 percentage point increase in the real interest rate. Also, suppose that the investment demand curve shifts rightward by $150 billion at each real interest rate for every 1 percentage point increase in the expected rate of return from investment. If stimulus spending (an expansionary fiscal policy) by government increases the real interest rate by 2 percentage points, but also raises the expected rate of return on investment by 1 percentage point, how much investment, if any, will be crowded out? LO4 Answer: $50 billion. Feedback: Consider the following example. Suppose that the investment demand curve in a certain economy is such that investment declines by $100 billion for every 1 percentage point increase in the real interest rate. Also, suppose that the investment demand curve shifts rightward by $150 billion at each real interest rate for every 1 percentage point increase in the expected rate of return from investment. If stimulus spending (an expansionary fiscal policy) by government increases the real interest rate by 2 percentage points, but also raises the expected rate of return on investment by 1 percentage point, how much investment, if any, will be crowded out? If stimulus spending (an expansionary fiscal policy) by government increases the real interest rate by 2 percentage points this will reduce investment by $200 billion. If stimulus spending (an expansionary fiscal policy) also raises the expected rate of return on investment by 1 percentage point this increases investment by $150 billion Combining these two effects results in $50 billion in investment spending being crowded out by the expansionary fiscal policy (= $200 (decrease from interest rate movement) $150 (increase from the expected rate of return increase)). 30-16
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