Chapter 12 Test Questions and Answers
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Chapter 12 Test Questions and Answers

Course Number: MAT540 MAT540, Spring 2012

College/University: Strayer

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Introduction to Management Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 12 Decision Analysis 1) A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future. Answer: TRUE Diff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision Making Key words: state of nature 2) A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature. Answer: TRUE...

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to Introduction Management Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 12 Decision Analysis 1) A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision Making Key words: state of nature 2) A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, including the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Components of Decision Making Key words: payoff table 3) The maximax criterion results in the maximum of the maximum payoffs. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximax criterion 4) The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest payoff. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 5) Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 6) The minimax regret criterion minimizes the maximum regret. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 1 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 7) The minimax regret criterion maximizes the maximum regret. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 8) The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 9) The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 10) The coefficient of optimism is a measure of the decision maker's optimism. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 11) The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by the coefficient of optimism. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 12) The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the worst payoff by the coefficient of optimism. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 13) A dominant decision is one that has better payoff than another decision under each state of nature. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 533 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: dominant decision 2 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 14) The appropriate criterion is dependent on the risk personality and philosophy of the decision maker. Register to View AnswerDiff: 3 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making criteria 15) The maximax criterion is optimistic. Register to View AnswerDiff: 3 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making criteria 16) The maximin criterion maximizes the minimum regret. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 17) The minimax criterion minimizes the maximum payoff. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax criterion 18) Regret and opportunity loss mean the same thing. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 537 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 19) The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 533 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: equal likelihood criterion 20) Expected opportunity loss is the expected value of the regret for each decision. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 536 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: expected opportunity loss, minimax regret criterion 3 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 21) When using decision trees, branches with the greatest expected value are selected. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 541 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 22) A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches. Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 541 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 23) When the __________ criterion is used, the maximum of the maximum payoffs is observed. Answer: maximax Diff: 1 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making without probabilities maximax criterion 24) When the __________ criterion is used, the maximum of the minimum payoffs is observed Answer: minimax Diff: 1 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making without probabilities, minimax criterion 25) __________ is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs. Answer: Regret Diff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: regret, minimax regret criterion 26) The __________ is a compromise between the maximax and the maximin criterion. Answer: Hurwicz criterion Diff: 2 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 27) The __________ is a measure of the decision makers optimism. Answer: coefficient of optimism Diff: 2 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: coefficient of optimism 4 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 28) A(n) __________ decision is one that has a better payoff than another decision under the state of nature. Answer: dominant Diff: 2 Page Ref: 533 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: dominant decision 29) A __________ structures decisions with series of nodes. Answer: decision tree Diff: 1 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision trees 30) The __________ of sample information is the ratio of the expected value of sample information to the expected value of perfect information. Answer: efficiency Diff: 1 Page Ref: 556 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of sample information 31) When the __________ criterion is used, the decision maker selects the decision alternative that minimizes the maximum regret. Answer: minimax Diff: 1 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax criterion 32) A ________ decision tree illustrates a situation requiring a services of decisions. Answer: sequential Diff: 1 Page Ref: 545 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 33) ________ is a measure of personal satisfaction derived from money. Answer: Utility Diff: 1 Page Ref: 558 Main Heading: Utility Key words: utility 34) People who forgo a high expected value to avoid a disaster with a low probability are __________. Answer: risk averters Diff: 1 Page Ref: 558 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: risk averters, utility 5 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions. Weather Cold Warm Rainy S1 S2 S3 Bike: A1 10 8 6 Hike: A2 14 15 2 Fish: A3 7 8 9 35) If the group is optimistic, what decision should they make? Answer: D2 Diff: 3 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximax criterion 36) If the group is conservative, what decision will they make? Answer: D3 Diff: 3 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 37) If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose? Answer: 3-way tie Diff: 3 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 38) If the probabilities of cold weather (S1), warm weather (S2), and rainy weather (S3) are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively, then what decision should be made using the expected value criterion? Answer: Ev(d1) = 7.6 Ev(d2) = 9.6 (best) Ev(d3) = 8.2 Diff: 3 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value criterion 39) What is the EVPI for this situation? Answer: EVPI = 12.4 - 9.6 = 2.8 Diff: 3 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 6 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall An investor is consider 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below. Poor Investment (S1) A 50 B 80 C -100 D 25 Economic Condition Average Good Excellent (S2) (S3) (S4) 75 20 30 15 40 50 300 -50 10 25 25 25 40) What decision would be made under maximax? Answer: compare 75, 80, 300 and 25. Choose investment C. Diff: 3 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximax criterion 41) What decision would be made under maximin? Answer: Compare 20, 15, -100 and 25. Choose investment D. Diff: 3 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 42) What decision would be made under minimax regret? Answer: Compare 225, 285, 180 and 275. Select investment C. Diff: 3 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 43) If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what investment would be made using the expected value criterion? Answer: Investment B with an EMV of 58 Diff: 3 Page Ref: 537 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 44) What is the expected value of perfect information? Answer: The EVPI is 28.5. Diff: 3 Page Ref: 539 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value criterion 7 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature. Alt 1 2 3 S1 10 -2 8 S2 2 8 5 45) If the manager uses maximin as the decision criterion, which of the alternatives should she choose? Answer: maximin: Alt 3 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 46) If the manager uses minimax regret as the decision criterion, which of the alternatives would she choose? Answer: Select alternative 3. Alt S1 S2 worst 1 0 6 6 2 12 0 12 3 2 3 3 (min regret) Diff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 47) Use the expected value criterion to select the best alternative. Assume that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4. Answer: EV (Alt 1) = 0.6(10) + 0.4(2) = 6.8 EV (Alt 2) = 0.6(-2) + 0.4(8) = 2.0 EV (Alt 3) = 0.6(8) + 0.4(5) = 6.8 Select either alternative 1 or 3. Diff: 2 Page Ref: 537 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value criterion 48) Compute the expected value of perfect information assuming that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4. Answer: EVPI = 0.6(10) + 0.4(8) - 6.8 = 2.4 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 539 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 8 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. 49) If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire? Answer: 1 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 50) If he uses the minimax regret criterion, how many new workers will he hire? Answer: 2 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 51) If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what are the expected net revenues for the number of workers he will decide to hire? Answer: $50000 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 537 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value criterion 52) If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Answer: $26000 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 539 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 9 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall A manufacturer must decide whether to build a small or a large plant at a new location. Demand at the location can be either small or large, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6 respectively. If a small plant is built, and demand is large, the production manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $223,000 if the firm chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 50% chance that the net present value of the returns will be 330,000 and 50% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $210,000. If a small facility is built and demand is small, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $200,000. However, if a large facility is built and the demand and the demand turns out to be small, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $40,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .3 or favorable with a probability of .7. If the response to advertising is modest the net present value of the profits is $20,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net present value of the profits is$220,000. Finally, the when large plant is built and the demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $800,000. 53) Draw a decision tree. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: sequential decision tree 10 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 54) Draw a decision tree and determine the payoff for each decision and event node. Which alternative should the manufacturer choose? Answer: EV1 = (.3)(20,000) + (.7)((220,000) = $160,000 EV2 = (.5)(330,000) + (.5)((210,000) = $270,000 EV3 = (.4)(200,000) + (.6)((270,000) = $242,000 EV4 = (.4)(160,000) + (.6)((800,000) = $544,000 Since 544,000 > 242,000 build a large plant Diff: 3 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: sequential decision tree 11 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 55) If a student attends every management science class, the probability of passing the course is 0.80; but if the student only attends randomly, then the probability of passing the course is 0.50. If a student fails, they can take a makeup exam where the probability of passing is 0.60 if the student has attended every class. This probability of passing the makeup exam drops to 0.10 if the student has attended at random. Passing the course is worth 5 credits. Full time attendance "costs" 3 credits in terms of energy and time whereas random attendance "costs" only 1 credit. Use a decision tree to decide which is the best attendance pattern to adopt. Assume that all failing students take the make up exam and that the payoff for failing is equal to 0. Answer: The expected value of attending all classes is 4.6 3 = 1.6. The expected value of attending randomly is 2.75 1 = 1.75, so the student should attend at random. Diff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making without words: Probabilities Key decision trees 12 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3). 56) What action would you choose according to maximax criterion? Answer: (90 > 80 > 70), accept the lot, a1 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximax criterion 57) What action would you choose according to maximin criterion? Answer: (10 < 20 < 40), reject the lot , a3 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 58) Construct the regret table Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax criterion, regret table 59) What action would you choose according to minimax regret criterion? Answer: Regret Table (80 > 60 >50), therefore reject the lot Diff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax criterion 13 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 60) What action would you choose according to expected value criterion? Answer: EV1 = (.3)(20) + (.5)(30) + (.2)(90) = 39 EV2 = (.3)(60) + (.5)(70) + (.2)(10) = 55 EV3 = (.3)(80) + (.5)(50) + (.2)(40) = 57 Since 57 > 55 > 39, reject the lot Diff: 2 Page Ref: 537 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value criterion 61) What is the maximum amount that you would be willing to pay for perfect information? Answer: expected payoff with perfect information = (.3)(80) + (.5)(70) + (.2)(90) = 77 EVPI = 77 - max (EV) = 77 -57 = 20 Diff: 3 Page Ref: 539 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 62) Lucky Lucy is playing the slots in Reno, Nevada, holding her last silver dollar. There are three possible payoffs if she wins: one cherry, $1.00; two cherries, $5.00; or three cherries, $50.00. Anything else on the slot machine loses. Construct the payoff table for Lucky Lucy Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: payoff table 14 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 63) Consider the following decision tree. What is the expected value at node 4? Answer: $600 Diff: 1 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value, decision trees 15 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 64) Consider the following decision tree. What is the value associated with node 3? Answer: $2,500 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value, decision trees 16 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 65) Consider the following decision tree. Which decision, A or B, is best? What is the expected value of this decision? Register to View Answerexpected payoff = $2,100 Diff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value, decision trees 66) The maximax criterion results in the A) maximum of the minimum payoffs B) maximum of the maximum payoffs C) minimum of the maximum payoffs D) minimum of the minimum payoffs Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximax criterion 67) The maximin criterion results in the A) minimum of the maximum payoffs B) maximum of the maximum payoffs C) maximum of the minimum payoffs D) minimum of the minimum payoffs Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 17 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 68) Regret is the difference between the payoff from the A) best decision and all other decision payoffs B) worst decision and all other decision payoffs C) best decision and the worst decision payoffs D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: regret, minimax regret criterion 69) The __________ minimizes the maximum regret. A) maximax regret criterion B) minimax regret criterion C) minimin regret criterion D) maximin regret criterion Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 70) The minimax regret criterion A) maximizes the minimum regret B) minimizes the minimum regret C) minimizes the maximum regret D) maximizes the maximum regret Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: minimax regret criterion 71) Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the best worst is called A) maximin B) minimin C) maximax D) minimax Register to View AnswerDiff: 3 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 18 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 72) The maximin approach to decision making refers to A) minimizing the maximum return B) maximizing the minimum return C) maximizing the maximum return D) minimizing the minimum return Register to View AnswerDiff: 3 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 73) The term opportunity loss is most closely related to A) maximin regret B) maximax regret C) minimax regret D) minimin regret Register to View AnswerDiff: 3 Page Ref: 531 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected opportunity loss, minimax regret criterion 74) The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise A) for the maximin criterion B) for the maximax criterion C) between the maximax and maximin criteria D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 75) The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the A) best payoff by the coefficient of optimism B) worst payoff by the coefficient of optimism C) best payoff by the worst payoff D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 19 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 76) The basic decision environment categories are A) certainty B) risk C) uncertainty D) all of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making 77) The basic decision environment categories are A) certainty and risk B) risk and uncertainty C) certainty and uncertainty D) certainty, uncertainty and risk Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making 78) The Hurwicz criterion A) multiplies the worst payoff by one minus the coefficient of optimism B) multiplies the best payoff by the coefficient of optimism C) is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria D) all of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: Hurwicz criterion 79) The appropriate criterion is dependent on A) the risk personality of the decision maker B) the philosophy of the decision maker C) all of the above D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 3 Page Ref: 558 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: decision making 20 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 80) The __________ is a measure of the decision maker's optimism. A) equal likelihood criterion B) dominant decision C) coefficient of optimism D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 532 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: coefficient of optimism, Hurwicz criterion 81) The __________ multiplies the decision payoff for each state of nature by an equal weight. A) dominant decision B) coefficient of optimism C) equal likelihood criterion D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 533 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: equal likelihood criterion 82) A __________ is one that has better payoff than another decision under each state of nature. A) coefficient of optimism B) equal likelihood criterion C) dominant decision D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 533 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: dominant decision 21 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 83) A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow. The maximax strategy is: A) Buy B) Rent C) Lease D) Brisk E) Slow Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 529 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximax criterion 84) A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow. The maximin strategy is: A) Buy B) Rent C) Lease D) Brisk. E) Slow Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 530 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: maximin criterion 22 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 85) A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow. The equal likelihood criterion strategy is: A) Buy B) Rent C) Lease D) High E) Low Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 533 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: equal likelihood criterion 86) A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow. If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow business is .60, the expected value of perfect information is: A) 12 B) 55 C) 57 D) 69 E) 90 Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 536 Main Heading: Decision Making without Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 23 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 87) The __________ is computed by multiplying each decision outcome under each state of nature by the probability of its occurrence. A) expected value B) expected value of perfect information C) expected opportunity loss D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 537 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: expected value 88) The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision. A) expected value B) expected opportunity loss C) expected value of perfect information D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 537 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: expected opportunity loss 89) A tabular presentation that shows the outcome for each decision alternative under the various possible states of nature is called a A) decision tree B) payoff table C) feasible region D) payback matrix Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 527 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: payoff table 90) The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information. A) expected opportunity loss B) expected value C) expected value of perfect information D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 539 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: expected value of perfect information 24 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 91) A decision tree is a diagram consisting of A) square decision nodes B) circle probability nodes C) branches representing decision alternatives D) all of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 92) In __________ additional information is used to alter the marginal probability of the occurrence of an event. A) Bayesian analysis B) decision analysis C) probability analysis D) all of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 550 Main Heading: Decision Analysis with Additional Information Key words: Bayesian analysis 93) A __________ probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred. A) posterior B) conditional C) marginal D) all of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 550 Main Heading: Decision Analysis with Additional Information Key words: conditional 94) A __________ probability is the altered marginal probability of an event based on additional information. A) marginal B) conditional C) posterior D) none of the above Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 552 Main Heading: Decision Analysis with Additional Information Key words: posterior 25 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 95) The efficiency of sample information is the ratio of the expected value of sample information to the A) expected value of perfect information B) expected value C) utilization rate D) coefficient of optimism E) expected opportunity loss Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 556 Main Heading: Utility Key words: efficiency of sample information 96) The expected value of sample information A) is never more than EVPI B) can be compared to the sample cost to judge whether to sample. C) is never negative D) all of the above are true E) Only A and C are true. Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 556 Main Heading: Utility Key words: efficiency of sample information 97) People who forgo a high expected value to avoid a disaster with a low probability are A) risk takers B) risk averters C) risk calculators D) risk predictors Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 558 Main Heading: Utility Key words: risk averters, utility 98) People who take a chance on a bonanza with a very low probability of occurrence in lieu of a sure thing are A) risk takers B) risk averters C) risk calculators D) risk predictors Register to View AnswerDiff: 1 Page Ref: 558 Main Heading: Utility Key words: risk takers, utility 26 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 99) Utiles are units of __________ measures of utility. A) quantitative B) objective C) subjective D) qualitative Register to View AnswerDiff: 3 Page Ref: 558 Main Heading: Utility Key words: utility A small entrepreneurial company is trying to decide between developing two different products that they believe they can sell to two potential companies, one large and one small. If they develop Product A, they have a 50% chance of selling it to the large company with annual purchases of about 20,000 units. If the large company won't purchase it, then they think they have an 80% chance of placing it with a smaller company, with sales of 15,000 units. On the other hand if they develop Product B, they feel they have a 40% chance of selling it to the large company, resulting in annual sales of about 17,000 units. If the large company doesn't buy it, they have a 50% chance of selling it to the small company with sales of 20,000 units. 100) What is the probability that Product Awill being purchased by the smaller company? A) 0.8 B) 0.5 C) 0.4 D) 0.2 E) 0.1 Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 101) What is the probability that Product B will being purchased by the smaller company? A) 0.8 B) 0.5 C) 0.4 D) 0.3 E) 0.1 Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 27 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 102) How many units of Product A can they expect to sell? A) 20,000 B) 17,000 C) 15,500 D) 15,000 E) 13,100 Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 103) How many units of Product A can they expect to sell? A) 20,000 B) 17,000 C) 15,500 D) 15,000 E) 13,100 Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 104) How many units can they expect to sell for the optimum alternative? A) 20,000 B) 17,000 C) 15,500 D) 15,000 E) 13,100 Register to View AnswerDiff: 2 Page Ref: 540 Main Heading: Decision Making with Probabilities Key words: decision trees 28 Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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Suggested Problems #2 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.September 7, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookBond-line structures, Resonance, Frontier MO theory, beginningarrow-pushing
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #3 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.September 13, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookNomenclature:5(a, b: 1st and 2nd ones), 13(c), 42(a: 3rd one; b: 1st one),
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
S uggested Problems #4For instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.September 21, 2012From the ExambookConformations and Newman Projections9, 10, 47(a, b: 1st one only), 48, 75(e,f), 90(a: 1st one only), 1
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
S uggested Problems #5 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below seeSuggested Problems #1.September 25, 2012From the ExambookCyclohexane conformations and cycloalkane ring nomenclature.5(b: 3rd one), 12, 13(a),
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
S uggested Problems #6 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.October 4, 2012From the ExambookBicyclic and polycyclic compounds13(b), 42(a: 2nd one; b: 3rd one), 51, 84(b: 3rd one),
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #7 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.October 11, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookStereochemistry. Part I17(a:3rd one; b:2nd one), 18, 36(not first a; a,b), 5
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #8 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.October 18, 2012ExambookStereochemistry. Part IIPlease note that the new instructions for all Predict theProducts proble
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #9 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.October 26, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookSN2 and some (but not all) SN1 Reactions19(a), 20(a), 21(a), 23, 24, 54(a),
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #10 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.October 30, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookSN1 and E1 and some more SN2 Reactions19(b), 21(b), 22, 54(d), 60, 96(b), 9
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #11 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.November 8, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookE2 Reactions19(c), 115(a,b), 119, 144(c: 2nd box), 146(b), 149(a), 176(d),
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #12 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.November 15, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookReduction of Aldehydes and Ketones and Grignard/alkyl lithiumReagents19(d
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Suggested Problems #13 for Chemistry 3AFor instructions on how to interpret the numbering system below,see Suggested Problems #1.November 20, 2012From the Chemistry 3 ExambookAlkenes Part 1: Nomenclature and hydrogenation.26(a:4th,5th boxes; b), 29(
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 1 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman, Fall 20121.1.7 Suppose two dice are rolled. Find the probabilities of the following events.1. the maximum of the two numbers rolled is less than or equal to 2;2. the maximum of the two numbers rolled is less
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 1 Solutions1.1.7Statistics 134, Pitman, Fall 2012a) P (maximum 2) = P (both dice 2) = 4/36 = 1/9b) P (maximum 3) = P (both dice 3) = 9/36 = 1/4c) P (maximum = 3) = P (maximum 3) P (maximum 2) = 5/36d)OutcomeProbability12341/36 3/36 5
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 2 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman, Fall 20122.1.2 Suppose that in 4-child families, each child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl,independently of the others. Which would then be more common, 4-child families with2 boys and 2 girls, or 4-
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 2 SolutionsStatistics 134, Pitman, Fall 20122.1.2 P (2 boys and 2 girls) = 4 (1/2)4 = 6/24 = 0.375 &lt; 0.5. So families with dierent2numbers of boys and girls are more likely than those having an equal number of boysand girls, and the relative
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 3 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20122.4.4 Repeat the previous problem for the event of getting 30 or more sixes in 100 die rolls,which has probability 0.00068.2.4.6 A box contains 1000 balls, of which 2 are black and the rest are whit
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 3 SolutionsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20122.4.4 Here = 365 0.00068 = 0.2482, anda) 1 e = .219796;b) 1 e e = 0.026150.2.4.6a) The number of black balls seen in a series of 100 draws with replacement hasbinomial (1000, 2/1000) distributio
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 4 Problems3.2.8 Suppose E (X 2 ) = 3,E (Y 2 ) = 4,Statistics 134, Pitman , Fall 2012E (XY ) = 2. Find E [(X + Y )2 ].3.2.14 A building has 10 oors above the basement. If 12 people get into an elevator at thebasement, and each chooses a oor
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 4 SolutionsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20123.2.8 E [(X + Y )2 ] = E (X 2 ) + 2E (XY ) + E (Y 2 ) = 11.3.2.14 We want E (N ), where N is the number of oors at which the elevator makes a stop0to let out one or more of the people. N is a coun
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 5 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20123.3.2 Let Y be the number of heads obtained if a fair coin is tossed three times. Find themean and variance of Y 2 .3.3.4 Suppose X1 and X2 are independent. Find a formula for V ar(X1 X2 ) in terms
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 5 SolutionsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20123.3.2 E (Y 2 ) = 3, V ar(Y 2 ) = 15/23.3.4 V ar(X1 X2 ) = E [(X1 X2 )2 ] [E (X1 X2 )]222= E (X1 ) E (X2 ) [E (X1 X2 )]222= (2 + 1 ) (2 + 2 ) (1 2 )2122222= 2 2 + 2 1 + 1 2213.3.6 By s
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 6 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20123.4.4 In the game of odd one out three people each toss a fair coin to see if one of theircoins shows a dierent face from the other two.1. After one play, what is the probability of some person bein
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 6 Solutions3.4.4Statistics 134, Pitman , Fall 2012a) The probability of some person being the odd one out is 1 the probability ofhaving the three coins be HHH or TTT. Thus the probability is 1 ( 1 )3 + ( 1 )3 =223.4b) Let the length of
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 7 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20124.1.2 Suppose X has density f (x) = c/x4 for x &gt; 1, and f (x) = 0 otherwise, where c is aconstant. Findc;E (X );V ar(X ).4.1.4 Suppose X with values in (0, 1) has density f (x) = cx2 (1 x)2 for 0
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 7 Solutions4.1.2Statistics 134, Pitman , Fall 2012a)1ccdx = 34x3x=1c3and since f (x) is a density function, it must integrate to 1, so c = 3.b)xE (X ) =133dx = 2x42x=1c)E (X 2 ) =x2133dx =x4xThus V ar(X ) = E (
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 8 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20124.2.4 Suppose component lifetimes are exponentially distributed with mean 10 hours. Find:1. the probability that a component survives 20 hours;2. the median component lifetime;3. the SD of componen
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 8 SolutionsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20124.2.4 Let W be the lifetime of a component. Then W has exponential distribution withrate = 1/10.a) P (W &gt; 20) = e20 = e2 0.135 .b) The median lifetime m satises1/2 = P (W &gt; m) = em m =(log 2)=
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 9 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20124.5.4 Let X be a random variable with c.d.f. F (x). Find the c.d.f. of aX + b rst for a &gt; 0,then for a &lt; 0.4.5.6 Let X be a random variable with c.d.f. F (x) = x3 for 0 x 1. Find:1. P (X 1 );22.
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 9 SolutionsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20124.5.4 If a &gt; 0, thenFaX +b (y ) = P (aX + b y )yb=P Xayb= FXaIf a &lt; 0, thenFaX +b (y ) = P (aX + b y )yb=P Xayb= 1 FXaassuming FX (x) is a continuous function of x.4.5.6a) P (X 1/2)
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 10 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20125.2.4 For random variables X and Y with joint density functionf (x, y ) = 6e2x3y(x, y &gt; 0)and f (x, y ) = 0 otherwise, nd:1. P (X x, Y y ); fX (x); fY (y ).2. Are X and Y independent? Give a rea
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 10 Solutions5.2.4Statistics 134, Pitman , Fall 2012a)yx6e2x3y dydxP (X x, Y y ) =00x=0y16e2x ( e3y ) dx30x2e2x dx= (1 e3y )03y= (1 eb))(1 e2x )6e2x3y dy = 2e2xfX (x) =0c)6e2x3y dx = 3e3yfY (y ) =0d) Yes, they are
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 11 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20126.1.2 In a particular town 10% of the families have no children, 20% have one child, 40%have two children, 20% have three children, and 10% have four. Let T represent thetotal number of children, a
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 11 SolutionsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20126.1.2 Condition on the value of T :4P (G = g |T = t)P (T = t)P (G = g ) =t=0Now given T = t, G has binomial (t, 1/2) distribution, sot(1/2)t ,gP (G = g |T = t) =g = 0, . . . , t.Conclude:
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Homework 12 ProblemsStatistics 134, Pitman , Fall 20126.4.4 Let (X, Y ) have uniform distribution on the four points (1, 0), (0, 1), (0, 1), (1, 0).Show that X and Y are uncorrelated but not independent.6.4.8 You have N boxes labeled Box1, Box2,. . .
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Intermolecular Forces!Intermolecular forces take place between molecules.!!!!!An understanding of intermolecular forces is crucial !to a chemists ability to successfully carry out reactions !in the organic chemistry laboratory.!!The Forces Betwe
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Terminology of MixingSolution: A homogenous mixture of two or more compounds.Solute: The compound in a solution present in lesser amount.Solvent: The major component of a solution.Miscibility: Two components of a solution are innitely soluble in each
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Melting PointsTypical Phase Changes as a Function of Temperatureat a Constant PressureTemperatureDbp, cpBmp, fpELCGGas(G)LiquidSolidASL(L)(S)Heat AddedBC = melting point(mp)/freezing point(fp): [Psolid = Pliquid]DE = boiling point(b
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Boiling PointsImpurities and Boiling PointsSoluble, Non-Volatile ImpurityPA = vapor pressureof compound A in a solution of A and asoluble impurityPressureRaoults Law:PA = XAPAELiquidSolidPatmDTCGasReduced vaporpressure curvedue to the
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Purifying Solids!!!! Sublimation/Deposition! Chromatography! Recrystallization!Recrystallization!Step 1: Choosing the right equipment!The Glassware! Erlenmeyer ask!Richard Erlenmeyer! Test tube!Constricted opening!Large surface area!Step 1:
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Chromatography!Separation of Different Compounds!!!! Partition! Adsorption!Adsorption Chromatography!Compounds that have Different Interactions with the Mobile Phase!Versus the Stationary Phase can be Separated !ABCABA CC CBBAaddsolventst
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Retention Factor (Rf)!Not a Physical Constant!Rf = !distance to !midpoint!of spot!distance to !solvent front!Rf depends on:!u The stationary phase !u The mobile phase !u The amount of compound!spotted!u The temperature!TLC: Conclusions!Give
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Structure Determination!v NMR Spectroscopy!v Mass Spectrometry!v X-Ray Crystallography!Spectroscopy!Absorption of Electromagnetic Radiation:!Something Changes from a Lower Energy !State to a Higher Energy State!E = h !E: change in energyh : Plan
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Spin-Spin Splitting !(J Coupling)!Coupling of spins provides connectivity information !about neighboring nuclei!1HNMR Spectrum of 1,1,2-trichloroethane!HBPredicted !HAH B!ClHBClClHA!TMS6ppm5ppm4ppm3ppm2ppm1ppm0 ppmObserved! !TMS6p
Berkeley - STAT 134 - 134
Complex Coupling !singlet!doublet!triplet!?!quartet!Successive Application of the N + 1 Rule!HBHAHBClCl ClTMS6ppm5ppm4ppm3ppm1ppm2ppm0 ppmTwo different hydrogen atoms coupling to a third hydrogen atom!HAWhat if:!JAB = 3 Hz!JAC = 8
GWU - BADM - 2201
Indonesia Country AssessmentDavid FetnerAdam WertheimQmarth GhaemiTorrance ShepardsonAlexander LeeINDONESIA2Table of ContentsIntroduction.3Indonesia is an archipelago or a country that is composed of thousands of islands. With approximately 17,00
GWU - BADM - 2201
TYPE: TAKE HOMEBADM 2201 I NTER L FINANCIAL ENVIRN.Fall 2012Quiz # 3NAME QMARTH GHAEMIStudent ID# G39031185Section:13Each question is 5 pointsDUE: DECEMBER 4, 2012Is running a current account deficit bad for US? What does a current account defic
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Qmarth GhaemiHow does/can a business balance profits and social responsibility?When a business becomes so consumed in worrying about profit it losses sight of what suroundsthe company. Even when a business is doing well there can be times in which soci
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Qmarth GhaemiAssignment 3In Harold Koontzs article, The Management Theory Jungle Revisited, attempts to explain the new findings with the management jungle and how this is effecting everyone. It goeson to describe how the original management theory jun
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Qmarth GhaemiHow does/can a business balance profits and social responsibility?When a business becomes so consumed in worrying about profit it losses sight of what suroundsthe company. Even when a business is doing well there can be times in which soci
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Please complete this worksheet for your Paper 2 Peer Review Assignment. You may also makecomments on their paper if youd like, but it is not required.Name of Student doing the Peer Review:Qmarth GhaemiName of Student whose paper is being peer reviewed
GWU - BADM - 2003W
The George Washington University BADM.2003W, WID Summer Reading Program,HANNAN, Fall 2012.V2Congratulations on the successful completion of your first year in our University!In keeping with the tradition embodied by The George Washington University of
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Business Ethics-Desire to do whats right-Self-policing-Business practices should add value to society-Should hurt the least amount of people-Obligation to behave legally-Need to add value to business-FairnessManagement Jungle-Connectivity and coh
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Q GhaemiHannan 2003 WPaper 1How is tThis Happening Under Our Own EyesSimple enough, the problem with these modern companies is the fact that they are unable to adjust to the changing climate of each field. Creative Destruction went into detail about w
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Q GhaemiPaper 2A business is defined as something that seeks profit. There are many different things that will inhibit a businesss opportunity to expand its profit. It is the duty of those in charge to make surethat the most profit is brought in by the
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Qmarth Ghaemi2003W; HannanMondaySummer SynthesisOver the years I have discovered that one thing is for certain, that the moment I wrote myfinal summer paper for high school merely two years ago, I truly thought this was the end to allsummer assignme
GWU - BADM - 2003W
IntroductionThe following is a financial analysis of Anheuser-Busch. Included is a deeper look into the current finances, trends in the sector, the merger with InBev, and a brief history of the company inaddition to other topics of discussion.Anheuser-
GWU - BADM - 2003W
Your name: Qmarth GhaemiPeer review colleague: Ryan WinemanEmail: qghaemi@gwu.eduThe primary purpose of this worksheet is to insure that your colleague has developed a clear, completeand convincing recommendation. Imagine, then, that you are a potenti