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...206A: STAT Gibbs Measures Invited Speaker: Andrea Montanari Lecture 5: Random Energy Model Lecture date: September 12 Scribe: Sebastien Roch This is a guest lecture by Andrea Montanari (ENS Paris and Stanford) on the Random Energy Model (REM) in physics. 1 Disordered Models In this lecture, we consider so-called disordered models in statistical physics. These are particle systems where the energy function is random. Therefore, we have two levels of randomness. We use the notation E, P to denote...
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206A: STAT Gibbs Measures Invited Speaker: Andrea Montanari Lecture 5: Random Energy Model Lecture date: September 12 Scribe: Sebastien Roch This is a guest lecture by Andrea Montanari (ENS Paris and Stanford) on the Random Energy Model (REM) in physics. 1 Disordered Models In this lecture, we consider so-called disordered models in statistical physics. These are particle systems where the energy function is random. Therefore, we have two levels of randomness. We use the notation E, P to denote averaging with respect to the energy and we use the notation to denote averaging with respect to the (random) Boltzmann distribution. The state space is {0, 1}N which we sometimes denote equivalently {1, . . . , 2N }. We denote the (random) energy function E : {0, 1}N R. Thus, for [0, + ], the Boltzmann distribution is 1 p(x) = exp ( E(x)) , Z( ) where the so-called partition function is Z( ) = x exp ( E(x)) . We are interested in the typical properties of p under P. Example: Random k-SAT. Let F : {0, 1}N {0, 1} be a Boolean function in k-CNF form. For example, F (x) = (x1 x2 x3 ) ( 2 x3 x4 ). Let x EF (x) = #{clauses violated by x}, (1) which we think of as an energy function. Imagine that we pick F uniformly at random over all k-SAT formulas with N variables and M = N clauses. In particular, with the energy in (1), if = + , the Boltzmann distribution is uniform over all satisfying assignments in F . The rst two moments of E under P are easily computed: E[E(x)] = N , 2k 5: Random Energy Model-1 and Cov[E(x), E(y)] = N (P[x & y violate an arbitrary clause] P[x violates an arbitrary clause]P[y violates an arbitrary clause]). Note that the correlation between two assignments x and y depends only on their Hamming distance. Note also that both assignments can violate a clause simultaneously only if they agree on all variables involved. Therefore, Cov[E(x), E(y)] = N 1 1 (1 )k 2k 2k 2 N f ( ), where the Hamming distance between x and y is N . For large k, the function f is nonnegligible from 0 up to O(k 1 ). 2 Random Energy Model The REM was introduced by Derrida [1]. It is de ned as follows. Each energy level is an independent Gaussian with mean 0 and variance N/2, i.e. {E(x)}x {0,1}N are i.i.d. N (0, N/2) and N Cov[E(x), E(y)] = 1{x = y}. 2 We follow Derrida s treatment of the REM [1]. The main quantities we want to compute are the so-called free energy 1 FN ( ) = log ZN ( ), the internal energy UN ( ) = E(x) = [ FN ( )], and the canonical entropy SN ( ) = H(p ) = 2 where H is the Shannon entropy. FN ( ), 3 Thermodynamic Properties Using the equivalent state space {1, . . . , 2N }, we compute the number of energy levels in the interval [N , N ( + )] A( , + ) = #{i : Ei [N , N ( + )]}, 5: Random Energy Model-2 which up to subexponential factors is, in expectation, + E[A( , + )] = 2N where Let N N x2 . e dx = eN maxx [ , + ] sQ (x) , = sQ (x) = log 2 x2 . log 2. Note that s is positive on ( , ). There are two cases of interest: 1. When [ , + ] [ , ] = , E[A( , + )] is exponentially large and the random variable A( , + ) is concentrated. 2. When [ , + ] [ , ] = , E[A( , + )] is exponentially small and the random variable A( , + ) is almost surely 0. Next, we compute the partition function. Let s(x) = We have ZN ( ) = i=1 sQ (x), x [ , 0, o.w. + ], 2N . e Ei = . eN (s(x) x) dx = eN maxx [s(x) x] . To summarize, we can prove the following. Proposition Let 1 ( ) = max[s(x) x]. x Then we have 1 log ZN ( ) = ( ). N + N lim P[| log ZN N | N ] e N 2 /2 Also, . 4 The Phase Transition There is a simple graphical way to compute ( ): nd the point on the curve of s(x) with slope . See Figure 5.2 in [2]. Therefore, it is easy to show that the free energy density f ( ) = ( ) 1 FN ( ) = = N + N lim log 2 , c , 4 log 2, > c , 5: Random Energy Model-3 where c = 2 log 2. Also, the entropy density is s( ) = and the energy density is u( ) = 1 UN ( ) = N + N lim c , , 2 log 2, > c . 1 SN ( ) = N + N lim + log 2, c , 4 0, > c , 2 There is a phase transition at the point c which is seen by the discontinuity in the second derivative of the free energy density. It is a so-called second order phase transition. The typical behavior in the two phases are: 1. At high temperature, i.e. c , there are exponentially many states with energy density /2 and the Boltzmann distribution is roughly uniform over them. 2. At low temperature, i.e. > c , the Boltzmann distribution is concentrated on a subexponential number of states of lowest energy density log 2. 5 Low Temperature Regime In this Section, we consider some more properties of the low temperature regime. 5.1 Ruelle s Reformulation A di erent characterization of the REM in terms of a point process was given by Ruelle [3]. Let 1 2 be a Poisson point process on R+ with intensity m 1 m for 0 m < 1. Consider the random variables i pi = . j j Then the values { i }i behave like the large N limit of the Bolztmann distribution of the p REM. To see this, consider the regime > c . As we pointed out before, the Boltzmann distribution is concentrated on a small number of states with energy density roughly log 2. Thus, consider the following rescaling of the energy Ei = N log 2 + zi . 5: Random Energy Model-4 By plugging this expression for Ei into the density of a N (0, N/2), it is easy to see that the zi s have a density roughly proportional to e c z . Now, consider again the original probabilities of the REM i pi = , j j where i e c zi . Then one can show that in the large N limit, the i s form a Poisson point process with intensity proportional to 1 c / . This corresponds to the Ruelle reformulation with m = c / . Note that this Poisson process has an accumulation point at 0. Also, notice that the larger is (i.e. the lower the temperature is), the fatter the tail of the process is, indicating that the Boltzmann distribution is dominated by a few large values. 5.2 Condensation To quantify further the condensation phenomenon at low temperature, consider the variable Qx,y = 1, if x = y, 0, o.w., where x and y are two states. The inverse of the quantity P[Qx,y = 1] = E i p2 , i measures the number of states on which the Boltzmann distribution is concentrated. Note that 2 Ei Z(2 ) ie E p2 = E =E . i Z( )2 Z( )2 i From our previous calculations for Z, one can derive N + lim P[Qx,y = 1] = 0, 1 c , c , > c . References [1] B. Derrida, Random-Energy Model: Limit of a Family of Disordered Models, PRL, 45(2):79 82, 1980. [2] M. Mezard and A. Montanari, Constraint Satisfaction Networks in Physics and Computation, Oxford University Press, In Press. [3] D. Ruelle, A mathematical reformulation of Derrida s REM and GREM, CMP, 108(2):225 239, 1987. 5: Random Energy Model-5
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Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Invited Speaker: Andrea Montanari Lecture 5: Random Energy Model Lecture date: September 12 Scribe: Sebastien Roch This is a guest lecture by Andrea Montanari (ENS Paris and Stanford) on the Random Energy Model (REM) in p...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures 4 Lecture 4 Lecture date: Sep 7 Scribe: Allan Sly 1 SATs Denition 1 A SAT formula has n variables and m constraints or clauses. The variables are denoted {xi }n , xi {0, 1} and we denote xi = 1 xi and zi is a literal ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures 4 Lecture 4 Lecture date: Sep 7 Scribe: Allan Sly 1 SATs Denition 1 A SAT formula has n variables and m constraints or clauses. The variables are denoted {xi }n , xi {0, 1} and we denote xi = 1 xi and zi is a literal ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
The dierential equation method for random graph processes and greedy algorithms N. C. Wormald Department of Mathematics University of Melbourne Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 A brief look at the general method 1.2 Graph p...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
The dierential equation method for random graph processes and greedy algorithms N. C. Wormald Department of Mathematics University of Melbourne Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 A brief look at the general method 1.2 Graph p...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 3 Lecture date: Sep 05 Scribe: Alexandre Stauer 1 Ensembles of Factor Graphs An ensemble of factor graphs is a family of randomly chosen factor graphs. In this lectures notes we dene two models o...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 3 Lecture date: Sep 05 Scribe: Alexandre Stauer 1 Ensembles of Factor Graphs An ensemble of factor graphs is a family of randomly chosen factor graphs. In this lectures notes we dene two models o...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
Random Vectors of Bounded Weight and Their Linear Dependencies Nathan Linial Dror Weitz December 16, 2000 Abstract Let be a probability distribution on a vector space V . When m vectors u1 , . . . , um are drawn from , how likely are they to ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
Random Vectors of Bounded Weight and Their Linear Dependencies Nathan Linial Dror Weitz December 16, 2000 Abstract Let be a probability distribution on a vector space V . When m vectors u1 , . . . , um are drawn from , how likely are they to ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures 2 Lecture 2 Lecture date: Aug 31 Scribe: Omid Etesami Denition 1 Consider a nite set X, and a probability distribution over X n such that for every x X n , m 1 a (xa ), P[x] = Z a=1 where a [n] and a : X |a| R+ . Dene...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures 2 Lecture 2 Lecture date: Aug 31 Scribe: Omid Etesami Denition 1 Consider a nite set X, and a probability distribution over X n such that for every x X n , m 1 a (xa ), P[x] = Z a=1 where a [n] and a : X |a| R+ . Dene...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 18 Lecture date: October 26 Scribe: Partha S. Dey In the previous lecture we dened the loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm for a factor graph G as the following iteration of messages. For ever...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 18 Lecture date: October 26 Scribe: Partha S. Dey In the previous lecture we dened the loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm for a factor graph G as the following iteration of messages. For ever...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 47, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2001 569 Efficient Erasure Correcting Codes Michael G. Luby, Michael Mitzenmacher, M. Amin Shokrollahi, and Daniel A. Spielman AbstractWe introduce a simple erasure recovery algorith...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, VOL. 47, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 2001 569 Efficient Erasure Correcting Codes Michael G. Luby, Michael Mitzenmacher, M. Amin Shokrollahi, and Daniel A. Spielman AbstractWe introduce a simple erasure recovery algorith...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Fall 2006 Lecture 1 Lecture date: Aug 29 Scribe: Madhur Tulsiani This lecture considers a few historical and motivating examples. 1 The Ising Model The Ising model is used to model the spins of atoms in a physical syst...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Fall 2006 Lecture 1 Lecture date: Aug 29 Scribe: Madhur Tulsiani This lecture considers a few historical and motivating examples. 1 The Ising Model The Ising model is used to model the spins of atoms in a physical syst...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 20 Lecture date: Nov 2 Scribe: Guy Bresler 1 Ising Model on Trees In this lecture we examine when uniqueness holds for the Ising Model. The rst section gives an exact result for trees; the second...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 20 Lecture date: Nov 2 Scribe: Guy Bresler 1 Ising Model on Trees In this lecture we examine when uniqueness holds for the Ising Model. The rst section gives an exact result for trees; the second...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 12 Lecture date: Oct 5 Scribe: Guy Bresler In the previous lecture we derived an expression for the expected number of codewords having weight w = N for a general LDPCN (, P ) code: F W (w) = E=0...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 12 Lecture date: Oct 5 Scribe: Guy Bresler In the previous lecture we derived an expression for the expected number of codewords having weight w = N for a general LDPCN (, P ) code: F W (w) = E=0...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures 9 Lecture 9 Lecture date: SEP 26 Scribe: Jian Ding 1 Brief Introduction to Second Moment Method In previous lecture, we presented a lower bound for threshold of satisability problem by unit clause propagation algorithm....
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures 9 Lecture 9 Lecture date: SEP 26 Scribe: Jian Ding 1 Brief Introduction to Second Moment Method In previous lecture, we presented a lower bound for threshold of satisability problem by unit clause propagation algorithm....
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Fall 2006 Lecture 16 Lecture date: Oct. 19 Scribe: Moorea Brega Recall that a distribution tree factorizes according to some factor graph ([N ], [M ], {a : 1 a M }), 1 P (x) = Z M a (xa ). a=1 Denition 1 A family of f...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Fall 2006 Lecture 16 Lecture date: Oct. 19 Scribe: Moorea Brega Recall that a distribution tree factorizes according to some factor graph ([N ], [M ], {a : 1 a M }), 1 P (x) = Z M a (xa ). a=1 Denition 1 A family of f...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Fall 2006 Lecture 17 Lecture date: Oct 24 Scribe: Joel Meord Denition 1 (-expander) A graph G = (V, E) is a -expander if, subsets S V, |S| |V | we have |S| |S| 2 Example 2 (Ising model) Consider the Ising model, 1 whe...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Fall 2006 Lecture 17 Lecture date: Oct 24 Scribe: Joel Meord Denition 1 (-expander) A graph G = (V, E) is a -expander if, subsets S V, |S| |V | we have |S| |S| 2 Example 2 (Ising model) Consider the Ising model, 1 whe...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 204 (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 6: Random k-SAT problems Lecture date: Sept 14 Scribe: Guillaume Obozinski Denition 1 (SATN (k, ) is a random k-SAT formula on N variables where each N possible clause is chosen independently with...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 206a (Fall, 2008)
STAT 206A: Gibbs Measures Elchanan Mossel Lecture 6: Random k-SAT problems Lecture date: Sept 14 Scribe: Guillaume Obozinski Denition 1 (SATN (k, ) is a random k-SAT formula on N variables where each N possible clause is chosen independently with...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Course:Censored Longitudinal Data and Causality Course No: PUBLIC HEALTH 246A sec 1 (Lecture), PUBLIC HEALTH 298 sec. 50 (Lab) Instructors: Mark van der Laan and Alan Hubbard Lecture Time and Place: M-W 12-1:30 in Tolman 235 Lab Time and Place: F 3-5...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Statistical Methods for Biomarker Discovery BASS 2007 Workshop, November 7th-9th Mark van der Laan, Jiann-Ping Hsu/Karl E. Peace Professor in Biostatistics, UC Berkeley laan@berkeley.edu Cathy Tuglus Graduate Student in Biostatistics, UC Berkeley ctu...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Controlling FDR in Second Stage Analysis Catherine Tuglus Work with Mark van der Laan UC Berkeley Biostatistics Outline What is a Second Stage Analysis Issues with MTP for Secondary Analysis Proposed solution for Marginal FDR controlling pro...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Common terms in molecular biology. DNA, RNA DNA is a polymer of four possible nucleotides denoted with A (adenine), C (cytosine), T (thymine), G (guanine). A nucleotide is a molecule connecting a phosphate group to a ve c...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Multiple Testing Mark J. van der Laan Division of Biostatistics U.C. Berkeley www.stat.berkeley.edu/~laan Outline Multiple Testing for variable importance in prediction Overview of Multiple Testing Previous proposals of joint null distribution i...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
PH 243A STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR GENE EXPRESSION DATA, Fall 2001 ROUGH SYLLABUS Lecture 1, Wednesday, September 5: SOME MICROBIOLOGY CROARRAY TECHNOLOGY, EXAMPLES OF DATA SETS. TERMS, THE MI- Possible books for the biology and biotechnology: 1) Da...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
STATISTICAL LEARNING FROM DATA LIES, DAMNED LIES, AND STATISTICS, Mark Twain. Senate Approves Tighter Policing of Drug Makers, May 8, 2007 Mark van der Laan, www.stat.berkeley.edu/~laan OVERVIEW How good is the human statistical intuition? Statist...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
8/30/2004 NOTES Logistics Logistics, oce hour times, the course website, relevant texts, and a list of topics to be covered are given on the course syllabus. This syllabus can be obtained from Mark van der Laan or Alan Hubbard. Course evaluation wil...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Data Adaptive Estimation of the Treatment Specic Mean in Causal Inference R-package cvDSA Yue Wang Division of Biostatistics Nov. 2004 Nov. 8, 2004 1 Outlines Introduction: Data structure and Marginal Structural Model. Estimation Road map Choice...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Multiple Testing Procedures Examples and Software Implementation Multiple Testing in Action Examples From New Book Multiple Testing Procedures with Applications to Genomics (2007). S. Dudoit and M. J. van der Laan. Multiple Testing Software R packa...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Targeted MLE for Variable Importance and Causal Effect with Clinical Trial and Observational Data Mark van der Laan works.bepress.com/mark_van_der_laan Division of Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley Outline Standard approaches...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Multivariate Statistical Methods in Genomics PH 243 A, MW 12-2, 2305 Tolman Instructor: Mark van der Laan Oce: Haviland Hall 108, tel: 643-9866 website: www.stat.berkeley.edu/ laan Technical reports at www.bepress.com/ucbbiostat/ email: laan@stat.ber...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Super Learning Eric Polley Joint work with Mark van der Laan and Alan Hubbard e-mail: ecpolley@berkeley.edu PH 246C (Berkeley) Super Learning PH 246C 1 / 27 Outline 1 Cross-Validation Denitions Oracle Inequalities 2 Super Learning Denitions...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Super Learning in Prediction HIV Example Mark van der Laan www.bepress.com/ucbbiostat Division of Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley Outline Super Learning in Prediction of HIV Phenotype based on HIV Genotype Scientific Goal Predic...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 210b (Spring, 2008)
Empirical Processes - Introduction April 8, 2005 Notation and Basic Setup We will assume that O1 , ., On P i.i.d. Pn is the empirical distribution. P f means Ep f (O) = f dP , likewise Pn f = f dPn . F will represent a set of real-valued functions...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Curie-Weiss and KMT Strong Embedding 1 Lecture 14 Lecture date: Sept 28, 2007 Scribe: John Zhu 1 Some nal remarks about the Curie-Weiss concentration 1 n In the Curie Weiss model, if m() = i , then +t n exp nt2 . 4(...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 25, Quiz 4 Solutions May 9, 2006 1. (a) If H0 is rejected, it means that the data is inconsistent with H0 . Thus the scale is (almost certainly) out of calibration, so the answer is (ii). (b) If H0 is not rejected, it means that the data is co...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Game Theory, Alive Yuval Peres i The author would like to cordially thank Alan Hammond, for scribing the rst draft; Gabor Pete, Yun Long and Peter Ralph for scribing the revisions; Yelena Shvets for pictures and editing; Ranjit Samra of rojaysorigi...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 155 Fall 08 Practice Final December 9, 2008 Time: 3 hours. Please show all steps. 1. Consider a game of nim with inital conguration (48, 23, 74, 10) and with the restriction that at most three chips can be removed from a pile in a single move....
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 18 Lecture date: Oct 8, 2007 Scribe: Guy Bresler 1 Tusndys Lemma a Lemma 1 (Tusndys Lemma, Lemma 3.10 in handout) Let 1 , . . . , n be i.i.d. a symmetric 1 random variables and S...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 134 Section 2 Homework 3 (Due: Wednesday, 9/27) Problems from Pitmans book: Section 2.1: 1, 5, 7. Section 3.2: 3, 6, 13. 1 ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 25, Homework # 2 Solution February 25, 2006 1. n!. If n = 10, then this is 3628800. 2. 310 . 3. (a) S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
A new method of normal approximation Sourav Chatterjee (UCB) Sourav Chatterjee A new method of normal approximation Central limit theorems Classical CLT: If X1 , . . . , Xn are independent random variables with zero mean and nite variance and (.),...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications Fall 2007 Lecture 23 Lecture date: Oct. 19, 2007 Scribe: Partha Dey Recall that, in the Sherrington Kirkpatrick model, the probability of a conguration = (i )N {1, +1}N is i=1 P() = 1 ZN e...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 25, Homework # 3 Solution February 25, 2006 1. P (A B c ) = P (A) + P (B c ) P (A B c ) = P (A) + P (B c ) P (A)P (B c ) = P (A) + (1 P (B) P (A)(1 P (B) = 1 P (B) + P (A)P (B). 2. Let R1 be the event that engine 1 is running. Let R2 b...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 15 Lecture date: Oct 1, 2007 Scribe: Arnab Sen Proof of Lemma 1 (contd.) Recall that K is set of all probability measure on Rn such that x(x) = 0 and exp , x (dx) exp(b 2 ) Rn...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 13 Lecture date: September 26, 2007 Scribe: Joel Meord Recall the following theorem from the previous lecture. Theorem 1 Suppose (X, X ) is an exchangeable pair, F(X, X ) is an ant...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 200A Practice Problem Set 1 1. Let = R, F = all subsets so that either A or Ac is countable, P (A) = 0 in the rst case and = 1 in the second. Show that (, F, P ) is a probability space. 2. Let (, F, P ) be a probability space and let A1 A2 A3...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 20 Lecture date: Oct 12, 2007 Scribe: Tanya Gordeeva 1 Proof of Lemma 3.9 Recall lemma 3.9 from the handout: Lemma 1 (Lemma 3.9) There exist universal constants C, K, and 0 such ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications Fall 2007 Lecture 7 Lecture date: Sept. 12, 2007 Scribe: Partha Dey 1 Method of Exchangeable Pair d Suppose (W, W ) is an exchangeable pair of random variables, i.e. (W, W ) = (W , W ), an...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 134 Section 2 Homework 3 (Due: Wednesday, 10/4) Problems from Pitmans book: Section 3.1: 2, 15. Section 3.3: 3, 12. Section 3.4: 1, 10 1 ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 134 Section 2 Homework 6 (Due: Friday, 10/27) Problems from Pitmans book: Section 4.1: 2, 12. Section 4.4: 1, 3, 6, 7. Section 4.5: 6, 8. 1 ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 9 Lecture date: Sep 17, 2007 Scribe: Tanya Gordeeva 1 Proof of the Hoeding combinatorial CLT Recall the Hoeding CLT from the previous lecture: Theorem 1 Suppose (aij )1i,jn is an...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 12 Lecture date: September 24, 2007 Scribe: Richard Liang 1 Steins method for concentration inequalities The purpose of this lecture will be to prove the following theorem. Theor...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
1. A loses if he gets no sixes. This can happen in 56 ways. Total number of ways = 66 . Therefore P (A loses) = 56 0.335. 66 B loses if the number of sixes is either 0 or 1. Now, P (B gets 0 sixes) = 512 /612 . Again, B can get exactly one six if i...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 25, Quiz 2 Solutions March 23, 2006 Note from the TA: All the relevant formulas will be provided for quizes in the future. 1. Linear combinations of normaly distributed varaibles are normaly distributed. The mean is 2 2 2 X+Y = X +Y = 90. Sinc...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 27 Lecture date: Oct 29, 2007 Scribe: Arnab Sen In the previous lectures, for the SK model with h = 0, < 1/2 ( though the result actually holds for h = 0, < 1), we proved that th...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 19 Lecture date: Oct. 10, 2007 Scribe: Laura Derksen 1 Let Tsundys lemma for a given total sum a i.i.d. symmetric random variables taking values in {1, 1} and let Sn = be a unifor...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 200A Fall 2007 Homework 5 1. Suppose X1 , . . . , Xn i.i.d. N (, c2 ), where c is a known constant. Compute the MLE of . 2. A company is produces xi items in the ith week, and Yi of them turn out to be defective. Here xi is deterministic and Yi...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
Stat 155 Fall 08 Solution to HW 6 1. Suppose player I has m pure strategies. Since the game is symmetric, player II also has m pure strategies. Let m K = m = {p = (p1 , . . . , pm ) : pi 0 for all i, and i=1 pi = 1}. Then K is a closed, convex, ...
Berkeley >> STAT >> 25 (Fall, 2008)
STAT C206A / MATH C223A : Steins method and applications 1 Lecture 5 Lecture date: Sept 7, 2007 Scribe: Guy Bresler 1 Continuation of Stein Bound In the previous lecture we proved bounds on f and its derivatives, f satisfying f (x) xf (x) = g(x...
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