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1. Current MAT540049VA016-1126-001 Quantitative Methods
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MAT540049VA016-1126-001 (Quantitative Methods)
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Question 1
1.
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 2
1.
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 3
1.
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive
can occur simultaneously.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 4
1.
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability
nodes, and branches.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 5
1.
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 6
1.
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random
variables.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 7
1.
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 8
1.
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term
strategic planning process.
Answer True
False
5 points
Question 9
1.
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability
of the occurrence of an event.
Answer
marginal
conditional
binomial
revised
5 points
Question 10
1.
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected
value.
Answer
Standard deviation
Range
The z-score (the standard score)
All of the above
5 points
Question 11
1.
The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
Answer
expected value
expected opportunity loss
expected value of perfect information
none of the above
5 points
Question 12
1.
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
Answer
1
2
3
4
5 points
Question 13
1.
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Answer
simulation numbers
data sets
random number ranges
all of the above
5 points
Question 14
1.
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process
are pseudorandom numbers.
Answer
physical / physical
physical / mathematical
mathematical / physical
mathematical / mathematical
5 points
Question 15
1.
A seed value is a(n)
Answer
steady state solution of a simulation experiment
number used to start a stream of random numbers
first run of a simulation model
analytic solution of a simulation experiment
5 points
Question 16
1.
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period
1
2
3
4
Demand Forecast
7
10
12
15
18
20
22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Answer
19
20
21
none of the above
5 points
Question 17
1.
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Answer
Linear trend
Linear regression
Forecast demand
Linear equation
5 points
Question 18
1.
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and
dependent variables.
Answer
Correlation
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression
5 points
Question 19
1.
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to
the most recent demand.
Answer
-1
0
1
-1 or 1
5 points
Question 20
1.
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream
store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with = .40 to
compute a forecast for period 7.
Answer
273
277
267.8
286.2
5 points
Question 21
1.
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Answer
Forecast mistake
Forecast error
MAD
Forecast accuracy
5 points
Question 22
1.
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to
respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Answer
.01
.10
.50
.90
5 points
Question 23
1.
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict
future behavior.
Answer
Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
5 points
Question 24
1.
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Cyclical only
None of the above
5 points
Question 25
1.
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is
limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________. 0.0006
Answer
5 points
Question 26
1.
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the
probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal
distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion
of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to
four places after the decimal.
0.0401
Answer
5 points
Question loaf 27
1.
A of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of
0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four
places after the decimal.
0.9772
Answer
5 points
Question 28
1.
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The
probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both
shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is
the probability of receiving xi complaints.
xi
p(xi)
0
.10
1
.15
2
.18
3
.20
4
.20
5
.10
6
.07
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two
places after the decimal.
2.83
Answer
5 points
Question 29
1.
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3
temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers
comply with the new tax code.
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50%
respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the
nearest dollar.
$50,000
Answer
5 points
Question 30
1.
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3
temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers
comply with the new tax code.
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
1
Answer
5 points
Question 31
1.
A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants
to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly.
What is the simulated value?
570
Answer
5 points
Question 32
1.
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102,
101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
91
Answer
5 points
Question 33
1.
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
2001
2002
2003
Answer
MAD = 3
5 points
Year
16
20
18
Demand
18
19
24
Forecast
Question 34
1.
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month
March
April
May
June
July
August
Actual
Demand
20
25
40
35
30
45
Use exponential smoothing with = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32.
Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
31.6
Answer
5 points
Question 35
1.
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the
number of ads is 10.
Y = 50 + 18X
Answer
5 points
Question 36
1.
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year Sales
2001 2
2002 4
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
10
8
14
18
17
20
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
r = 0.96548
Answer
5 points
Question 37
1.
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and
winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.
0.96
Answer
5 points
Question 38
1.
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream
store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
246.67
Answer
5 points
Question 39
1.
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102,
101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average,
with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent
data.
91.7 = .6(92) + .3 (90) + .1(95)
Answer
5 points
Question 40
1.
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights
are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
21.1
Answer
5 points
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