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Location 1. Current MAT540049VA016-1126-001 Quantitative Methods 2. Week 5 3. Take Test: Midterm Exam Menu Management Options MAT540049VA016-1126-001 (Quantitative Methods) Course Home Student Center Email Gradebook Class Introductions Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Take Test: Midterm Exam Content Assistive Technology Tips [opens in new window] Instructions Description Instructions Timed Test Multiple Attempts Force Completion This Test has the time limit of 4 hour. This Test will save and submit automatically when the time expires. Warnings appear when half the time, 5 minutes, 1 minute, and 30 seconds remain. Not allowed. This Test can only be taken once. Once started, this Test must be completed in one sitting. Remaining Time: 3 hours, 58 minute, 08 seconds. Question Completion Status: Question 1 1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. Answer True False 5 points Question 2 1. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. Answer True False 5 points Question 3 1. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously. Answer True False 5 points Question 4 1. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches. Answer True False 5 points Question 5 1. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated. Answer True False 5 points Question 6 1. Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables. Answer True False 5 points Question 7 1. Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. Answer True False 5 points Question 8 1. Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process. Answer True False 5 points Question 9 1. In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event. Answer marginal conditional binomial revised 5 points Question 10 1. __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value. Answer Standard deviation Range The z-score (the standard score) All of the above 5 points Question 11 1. The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision. Answer expected value expected opportunity loss expected value of perfect information none of the above 5 points Question 12 1. Consider the following frequency of demand: If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be Answer 1 2 3 4 5 points Question 13 1. Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine Answer simulation numbers data sets random number ranges all of the above 5 points Question 14 1. Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers. Answer physical / physical physical / mathematical mathematical / physical mathematical / mathematical 5 points Question 15 1. A seed value is a(n) Answer steady state solution of a simulation experiment number used to start a stream of random numbers first run of a simulation model analytic solution of a simulation experiment 5 points Question 16 1. Consider the following demand and forecast. Period 1 2 3 4 Demand Forecast 7 10 12 15 18 20 22 If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4? Answer 19 20 21 none of the above 5 points Question 17 1. __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time. Answer Linear trend Linear regression Forecast demand Linear equation 5 points Question 18 1. __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Answer Correlation Linear regression Coefficient of determination Regression 5 points Question 19 1. In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand. Answer -1 0 1 -1 or 1 5 points Question 20 1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7. Answer 273 277 267.8 286.2 5 points Question 21 1. __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand. Answer Forecast mistake Forecast error MAD Forecast accuracy 5 points Question 22 1. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors? Answer .01 .10 .50 .90 5 points Question 23 1. __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior. Answer Qualitative methods Regression Time series Quantitative methods 5 points Question 24 1. Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data? Answer Trend only Trend plus seasonal Cyclical only None of the above 5 points Question 25 1. An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry. The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________. 0.0006 Answer 5 points Question 26 1. A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal. 0.0401 Answer 5 points Question loaf 27 1. A of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal. 0.9772 Answer 5 points Question 28 1. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints. xi p(xi) 0 .10 1 .15 2 .18 3 .20 4 .20 5 .10 6 .07 What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal. 2.83 Answer 5 points Question 29 1. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar. $50,000 Answer 5 points Question 30 1. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire? 1 Answer 5 points Question 31 1. A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value? 570 Answer 5 points Question 32 1. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average. 91 Answer 5 points Question 33 1. Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast. 2001 2002 2003 Answer MAD = 3 5 points Year 16 20 18 Demand 18 19 24 Forecast Question 34 1. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product. Month March April May June July August Actual Demand 20 25 40 35 30 45 Use exponential smoothing with = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August. 31.6 Answer 5 points Question 35 1. This is the data from the last 4 weeks: Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10. Y = 50 + 18X Answer 5 points Question 36 1. Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008. Year Sales 2001 2 2002 4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 10 8 14 18 17 20 Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal. r = 0.96548 Answer 5 points Question 37 1. Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings. What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal. 0.96 Answer 5 points Question 38 1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal. 246.67 Answer 5 points Question 39 1. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data. 91.7 = .6(92) + .3 (90) + .1(95) Answer 5 points Question 40 1. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5. 21.1 Answer 5 points Save and Submit Links to Test Questions and Answers Read question 1 Read answers for question 1 Read question 2 Read answers for question 2 Read question 3 Read answers for question 3 Read question 4 Read answers for question 4 Read question 5 Read answers for question 5 Read question 6 Read answers for question 6 Read question 7 Read answers for question 7 Read question 8 Read answers for question 8 Read question 9 Read answers for question 9 Read question 10 Read answers for question 10 Read question 11 Read answers for question 11 Read question 12 Read answers for question 12 Read question 13 Read answers for question 13 Read question 14 Read answers for question 14 Read question 15 Read answers for question 15 Read question 16 Read answers for question 16 Read question 17 Read answers for question 17 Read question 18 Read answers for question 18 Read question 19 Read answers for question 19 Read question 20 Read answers for question 20 Read question 21 Read answers for question 21 Read question 22 Read answers for question 22 Read question 23 Read answers for question 23 Read question 24 Read answers for question 24 Read question 25 Read answers for question 25 Read question 26 Read answers for question 26 Read question 27 Read answers for question 27 Read question 28 Read answers for question 28 Read question 29 Read answers for question 29 Read question 30 Read answers for question 30 Read question 31 Read answers for question 31 Read question 32 Read answers for question 32 Read question 33 Read answers for question 33 Read question 34 Read answers for question 34 Read question 35 Read answers for question 35 Read question 36 Read answers for question 36 Read question 37 Read answers for question 37 Read question 38 Read answers for question 38 Read question 39 Read answers for question 39 Read question 40 Read answers for question 40 ... 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