Documents about Causal Loop Diagram

  • 3 Pages

    724Lec05

    SUNY Albany, GPR 724

    Excerpt: ... ing distance Population in outlying areas Highway construction Average commuting time (B1) Highway expansion Average commuting speed Attractiveness of outlying areas (B3) Commuting volume Net migration to outlying areas Number of commuters Lane-miles of high speed roads PAD 724 lecture notes Page 25 Causal loop diagram s with stocks explicit, but flows implicit in the arrows: Gross productivity Progress rate Fraction satisfactory Workforce Cumulative real progress Undiscovered rework Detection of undiscovered rework Cumulative preceived progress Perceived p roductivity Net hiring Cumulative effort <wcwf> Workforce sought Willingness to change workforce Indicated worforce Effort perceived remaining Tasks perceived remaining Time to detect rework Fraction perceived complete <tdrw> Initial project definition <Workforce sought> Time perceived required Time remaining Indicated completion date Scheduled completion date Net additions to schedule The picture is complete and quantifiable, and may be ...

  • 6 Pages

    ch6sg

    Allan Hancock College, WIN 12120

    Excerpt: ... sented by differential equations. Terminology Many systems, like those listed in the introduction to this chapter, incorporate feedback -loops, where a change in one part of a system produces changes in the whole system which then "feed back" through the system and affect the original part again. System dynamics refers to the study of such systems. The basic methods of system dynamics were developed by Prof Jay W. Forrester in the late 1950's. Dynamic simulation is a simulation technique that models the levels, flow rates and associated variables of systems that include feedback loops. Causal loop diagram s are a convenient way to represent the loop structure associated with these dynamic systems. Causal Loops Causal loop diagram s are a convenient way to map the interacting elements of feedback loops. They also provide a convenient, easily understood way of describing dynamic systems. Figure 6.1 is a causal loop diagram depicting a room heater control loop. + Room temperature Heat output Gas flow + Figu ...

  • 6 Pages

    ch6sg

    Allan Hancock College, COIT 12120

    Excerpt: ... ges can be represented by differential equations. Terminology Many systems, like those listed in the introduction to this chapter, incorporate feedback -loops, where a change in one part of a system produces changes in the whole system which then "feed back" through the system and affect the original part again. System dynamics refers to the study of such systems. The basic methods of system dynamics were developed by Prof Jay W. Forrester in the late 1950s. Dynamic simulation is a simulation technique that models the levels, flow rates and associated variables of systems that include feedback loops. Causal loop diagram s are a convenient way to represent the loop structure associated with these dynamic systems. Causal Loops Causal loop diagram s are a convenient way to map the interacting elements of feedback loops. They also provide a convenient, easily understood way of describing dynamic systems. Figure 6.1 is a causal loop diagram depicting a room heater control loop. + Room temperature Heat outpu ...

  • 15 Pages

    PS1

    Air Force Academy, SDS 797

    Excerpt: ... CMPT 470 PROBLEM SET 1 FALL 2006 PROBLEM 1: CREATE A CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM . In this problem, you will create a causal loop diagram for dynamic behavior associated with some situation you have encountered in your life or with which you are familiar.1 The diagram must include at least 5 factors (labels serving as nodes in the directed graph), and there must be at least 3 different possible paths from start to finish. You are not required to be absolutely sure about the real-world causal relationships to model such a situation with a causal loop diagram ; you can create a causal loop diagram as a working hypothesis for the pattern behind a situation, even if you dont know (or cant recall) all of the detailed mechanisms. Greater credit will be awarded for causal loop diagram s that exhibit greater initiative, clarity of thought, and creativity in conceptualization. While you will be handing in only one diagram for this problem, it is suggested that you follow the following procedure: a) Think about what caus ...

  • 3 Pages

    624Lec12

    SUNY Albany, GPR 624

    Excerpt: ... Lecture 12 Page 1 Lecture 12 - Approaches to Conceptualization I. FishBanks model drafts A. Questions? B. Areas to note 1. Fish Net Growth a) Note that Meadows handouts give a rate vs level graph for Fish Net Growth. b) Can use that function as Fis ...

  • 40 Pages

    causalloops

    UMass (Amherst), PLNT 597

    Excerpt: ... Getting Started With Causal Loop Diagram s or. why did the chicken cross the road? Here is a simple one. actions Mental models Here is another, slightly more complex Sustainable Action Sustainable Pattern Sustainable Mental Models Sustainable Structures This is a reinforcing feedback loop Sustainable Action Sustainable Pattern R Sustainable Mental Models Sustainable Structures Reinforcing loops have an even number of s S S Sustainable Action Sustainable Pattern R Sustainable Mental Models S Sustainable Structures S Lets create a causal loop diagram from The Iceberg Events Patterns of Behavior Systemic Structure Mental Models Increasing Leverage The Iceberg A Sustainable Behavior Events Patterns of Behavior Systemic Structure Mental Models Increasing I rode my bicycle to school today Leverage A pattern The Iceberg Events Patterns of Behavior Systemic Structure Mental Models Increasing Leverage I ride my bicycle to school most days (well, when its not raining) Possi ...

  • 14 Pages

    DynSysIntro

    Arkansas Fort Smith, EGR 301

    Excerpt: ... Dynamic Systems, Neural Networks Picker Engineering Program Smith College EGR 301 January 25, 2005 Judith Cardell Overview Course administration The purpose of modeling & simulation What is a dynamic system? Policy: Aid to developing countries Engineering: Electric power system How are neural networks and dynamic systems studies related? Pendulum man Modeling and Simulation Systems Experiment with actual system Experiment with a model of a system Mathematical model Physical model Analytic Solution Computer Simulation Systems to Model & Simulate Dynamic system System A combination of interacting elements .that act together to perform a specific objective Dynamic Systems or phenomena that produce time-changing patterns . that evolve or change with time Policy analysis Engineering analysis Policy: Causal Loop Diagram A method for diagramming and understanding relationships between system elements, especially feedback Positive feedback shown below Policy: Causal ...

  • 8 Pages

    ch7sg

    Allan Hancock College, WIN 12120

    Excerpt: ... n Figure 7.5. There is no equivalent icon in Powersim but the Powersim Flow icons introduce the clouds when the flows are first added to the model. Cloud Symbol Figure 7.5 Flow Diagrams - Clouds Some examples of Flow Diagrams Example 1. Population Growth Consider a very simple model of population growth. In this example, the population of an area is now 100,000 and is growing at the net rate of 2% per year. The model is required to predict the population of the area into the future. Figure 7.6 is the causal loop diagram for this example. Note that the system being modelled is a positive feedback system, because any increase in population will result in an increase in the rate of growth and this in turn reinforces the growth in population. + Population Figure 7.6 Causal Loop for Population Growth Population Growth + For this model, one level is needed for the population of the area. The growth in population can be represented as flow -with-rate where the rate of flow is calculated as 2% of the populati ...

  • 8 Pages

    ch7sg

    Allan Hancock College, COIT 12120

    Excerpt: ... There is no equivalent icon in Powersim but the Powersim Flow icons introduce the clouds when the flows are first added to the model. Cloud Symbol Figure 7.5 Flow Diagrams - Clouds Some examples of Flow Diagrams Example 1. Population Growth Consider a very simple model of population growth. In this example, the population of an area is now 100,000 and is growing at the net rate of 2% per year. The model is required to predict the population of the area into the future. Figure 7.6 is the causal loop diagram for this example. Note that the system being modelled is a positive feedback system, because any increase in population will result in an increase in the rate of growth and this in turn reinforces the growth in population. + Population Figure 7.6 Causal Loop for Population Growth Population Growth + For this model, one level is needed for the population of the area. The growth in population can be represented as flow -with-rate where the rate of flow is calculated as 2% of the population level. The ...

  • 14 Pages

    w6lect1

    Allan Hancock College, WIN 12120

    Excerpt: ... System Simulation / Engineering Statistics Winter, 2000 Week 6, Lecture 1. 6-1 Arthur Pinkney, CQU 2001 Flow Diagrams q q q q Causal loop diagram s help identify and organize the principal components and feed back loops but do not contain all of the necessary information Flow diagrams contain more of this necessary information and are an aid to building a dynamic simulation model Indeed, in Powersim and other dynamic simulation packages, the model is built directly from the flow diagram This lecture shows how some systems may be modelled using Powersim 6-2 Arthur Pinkney, CQU 2001 Building Blocks for Flow Diagrams . 1 q Levels. A variable to represent the accumulations in the system. Analogous to the level of liquid in a tank. The level will vary with the in- and out- flows. Examples: Stocks, cash balances, number of people employed Symbol Powersim button 6-3 Arthur Pinkney, CQU 2001 Building Blocks for Flow Diagrams . 2 q Auxiliary variables. These are used when some calculations ...

  • 42 Pages

    l16diagnsprjctrl

    MIT, PM 1040

    Excerpt: ... Problem Diagnosis & Introduction to Project Dynamics 1.040/1.401J Nathaniel Osgood 4/13/2004 Topics Problem Diagnosis Pareto Analysis Fishbone Diagram Scatterplots Systems Thinking and System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram s System Dynamics Insights into Causes of Problems Discussed Last Time : Exploratory Analysis Pareto Analysis Fishbone Diagram Scatter Diagram Causal Loop Diagram Pareto Analysis Correctly addressing a small portion of project components can provide control over the remaining project components. Help identify the contributors to given types of performance, mostly cost and quality performance. Group A: a small portion of the major cost components that account for a significant portion of the total cost Group B: all cost component other than Group A and C components Group C: a large portion of the minor cost components that account for a trivial portion of the total cost Pareto Analysis Example: Drivers of Quality Problems in Building Construction Workers Rebar workers Concret ...

  • 28 Pages

    Systems

    Penn State, CJN 6

    Excerpt: ... ture influences behavior "Different people in the same structure tend to produce the same results. When there are problems it is easy to find someone or something to blame. But, more often than we realize, systems cause their own crises, not external factors or individuals' mistakes." Structure in human systems is subtle "We usually don't see the structures at play much at all. We just find ourselves feeling compelled to act in certain ways." cause and effect not closely related in time and space small changes producing big results from the systems perspective, the human actor is part of a feedback process. We are continually both influenced by and influencing our reality Leverage often comes from new ways of thinking Reject linear cause-and-effect thinking Reject who-is-to-blame thinking Note hidden balancing processes Note hidden processes that reinforce themselves Causal loop diagram s Rather than thinking in terms of linear causal relationships, think of circular causal relationships. From. To. ...

  • 3 Pages

    724Ex04

    SUNY Albany, GPR 724

    Excerpt: ... PAD 724- Exercise 4 Diagraming As an interim report on your project model, and an exercise in various diagramming techniques, create the following kinds of diagrams for your project model as you currently envision it. a) Sector overview diagram (sh ...

  • 1 Pages

    Lecture9-10

    UCSC, CMPS 080

    Excerpt: ... Causal Loop Diagram ming Positive Arc + Negative Arc - Balancing Loop odd minuses Reinforcing Loop Even Minuses Deterministic = No element of chance The same state always leads to the same future, given the same input. Non-deterministic = Not deterministic = Stochastic = Chance Mathematical functions are deterministic they are many to or 1-1. Random = "All states equally likely" = maximum diversity = log2(N) the number states. is a special case of stochastic. (actually very difficult to create or prove a random system - so the term ultimately refers to "maximal ignorance"). SUBJECTIVE VIEW: [ which instructor recommends] Probabilities are due to our ignorance and are not part of the world. information/energy chart: dynamic T = maximum diversity = random hot free = log2(N) . . . . . . . . static ...

  • 51 Pages

    L4_Lifecycle_Documentation

    Old Dominion, COMP 3705

    Excerpt: ... ivation Advanced Software Engineering 42 Model No model is perfect, but some models are useful Dynamic behaviour Model scope System behaviour can change over time Dynamic, discrete-event, etc. Behaviour and decisions made at one point in the process impact others in complex or indirect ways A portion of the life cycle A development project Multiple, concurrent projects Amount of incoming work Defect detection efficiency Effort for code rework Effort/cost Cycle-time etc Feedback mechanisms Input parameters Result variables Advanced Software Engineering 43 Quality factors Advanced Software Engineering 44 Influence diagram Time in Requirement Phase Inadequate Requirements Amount of rework Specification Accuracy Amount of Review Number of Personnel Schedule Pressure Budget Pressure Amount of New Market Requirements Communication Level Personnel Experience Functionality Productivity Advanced Software Engineering 45 Causal loop diagram - ...

  • 5 Pages

    SAE 599 Fall 2007 - Modeling and Simulation for...

    USC, SAE 599

    Excerpt: ... SAE 599 - Modeling and Simulation for Systems Architecting and Engineering Dr. Raymond Madachy October 24, 2007 Modeling Communication and Team Issues (from reading assignment) Communication is vitally important in modeling Seek early involvement from stakeholders or modeling efforts arent likely to succeed Developing buy-in to the model is usually more important than the model itself. Otherwise the results will never be used. Everyone comes with pre-conceived mental models and success criteria. Open communication will help elucidate those models and identify clashes. Be aware of the different perspectives and skillsets of your audience Use simple diagrams to communicate with others until they seek more detail Causal loop diagram s are sometimes better to describe a model than a fully elaborated, executable version. They can get the important points across. Try to facilitate interaction with the model. Use a control panel interface and pictures. Documentati ...