THeoReliTheogionCW95.doc - pp 204u2013221...

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pp. 204–221. ——. (2012) “Why Epistemologists Are So Down on Their Luck,” in J. Greco & J. Turri (eds.) Virtue Epistemology: Contemporary Readings, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 329–344. ——. (2015) “Luck, Knowledge, and ‘Mere’ Coincidence,” in D. Pritchard & L. Whittington (eds.) The Philosophy of Luck, Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, pp. 177–189. 136 12 THE PROBABILITY ACCOUNT OF LUCK Nicholas Rescher Our lives unfold in a setting where much that is of importance for our existence and well-being occurs in unpredictable circumstances. Pure chance alone all too frequently determines our fate and fortune. And then it is not fact-exploiting reason but probability-managing judgment that provides us with guidance in dealing with the world’s affairs. And here luck is bound to enter in. The concept of “luck” that functions in English usage in the stochastic sense of chance benefits is philosophically underdeveloped because neither the Latin fortuna nor the French felicité nor the German Glück comes close to capturing the conception at issue. In English, however, unlikelihood is of

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