Best method&Overall

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Best method by MAD After the MAD calculations from period 11 to 14, the average absolute error for each forecasts are (in million): 1,282 for moving Average; 881.93 for Weighted Moving Average; 1,154.91 with α=.5 and 3,023.15 with α=.2 for Exponential Smoothing; 841.91 for Least Square; and 1,412.47 for Trend Adjusted Forecast. In order to choose the best forecast method theoretically, we choose the forecast with the lowest MAD calculation, which in this case is the Weighted Moving Average Forecast method, which only has 881.93 (million); the worst forecast we have is Exponential Smoothing with α=.2, its MAD calculation is 3,023.15. We don’t include Least Square and T.A.F here because both of them are for Trend Analysis, not forecasting. Overall recommendation We only calculated MAD for the last four periods, and according to the calculations Weighted Moving Average Forecast is the best method. But if we analyze the forecast of all the periods we calculated, will Weighted Moving Average forecast still the best method? According
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