SAR Alt - SEARCHING IN THE GRAND CANYON A Simple Model 1....

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Day 1 0.200 0.700 0.100 0.365 2 0.236 0.606 0.157 0.332 3 0.265 0.499 0.236 0.291 4 0.280 0.387 0.332 0.244 5 0.278 0.282 0.440 0.196 6 0.260 0.193 0.547 0.152 7 0.230 0.125 0.645 0.114 8 0.194 0.078 0.728 0.084 9 0.159 0.047 0.794 0.061 10 0.127 0.027 0.846 0.044 11 0.100 0.016 0.885 0.032 12 0.077 0.009 0.914 0.023 13 0.059 0.005 0.936 0.017 14 0.045 0.003 0.952 0.013 15 0.034 0.002 0.964 0.009 16 0.026 0.001 0.973 0.007 17 0.020 0.000 0.980 0.005 18 0.015 0.000 0.985 0.004 19 0.011 0.000 0.989 0.003 20 0.008 0.000 0.992 0.002 P ( C i ) P ( R i ) P ( N i ) P ( F i ) SEARCHING IN THE GRAND CANYON A Simple Model 1. For notation and initial probabilities, see the class material in the Management Example section of Project 1 . 2. Remember, the accuracy of the output is no better than that of your assumptions about initial probabilities. Mathema P The Ma © 2007 b The Unive
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atics for Business Decisions, Part 1a Release 1.53a, 2007 Published and Distributed by athematical Association of America by The Arizona Board of Regents for ersity of Arizona. All rights reserved.
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Cut-off Max. Cost 100 0.95 0.896 3.3 12 $33,078 $120,000 0.283 0.495 0.000 Day Total Cost 1 0.200 0.700 0.100 0.403 0.597 0.403 $10,000 2 0.240 0.592 0.168 0.361 0.639 0.216 $20,000 3 0.270 0.468 0.262 0.308 0.692 0.117 $30,000 4 0.279 0.342 0.379 0.248 0.752 0.065 $40,000 5 0.267 0.229 0.504 0.189 0.811 0.038 $50,000 6 0.236 0.143 0.621 0.137 0.863 0.022 $60,000 7 0.196 0.084 0.720 0.097 0.903 0.013 $70,000 8 0.156 0.047 0.798 0.067 0.933 0.008 $80,000 9 0.120 0.025 0.855 0.046 0.954 0.005 $90,000 10 0.090 0.013 0.897 0.032 0.968 0.004 $100,000 11 0.067 0.007 0.926 0.022 0.978 0.002 $110,000 12 0.049 0.004 0.947 0.016 0.984 0.106 $120,000 13 0.036 0.002 0.963 0.011 0.989 $130,000 14 0.026 0.001 0.973 0.008 0.992 $140,000 15 0.019 0.000 0.981 0.006 0.994 $150,000 16 0.013 0.000 0.986 0.004 0.996 $160,000 17 0.010 0.000 0.990 0.003 0.997 $170,000 18 0.007 0.000 0.993 0.002 0.998 $180,000 19 0.005 0.000 0.995 0.001 0.999 $190,000 20 0.004 0.000 0.996 0.001 0.999 $200,000 21 0.003
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SAR Alt - SEARCHING IN THE GRAND CANYON A Simple Model 1....

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