Customer Loyalty -...

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ËÈ[email protected]ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ_x0001__x0002_ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ´±öyí–[email protected]_x0010_ê_x000B_ì[email protected]ù^F_x000 _¢;[email protected]ª_x001C_°øc–[email protected]–¹ÿ[[email protected] ÀË A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 B C D E F G H I J Customer loyalty model in the credit card industry Inputs Retention rate Discount rate Stdev % of mean Estimated means Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Retention rates to try 0.75 #NAME? 0.15 10% Mean Profit(if still here) ($40.00) $66.00 $72.00 $79.00 $87.00 $92.00 $96.00 $99.00 $103.00 $106.00 $111.00 $116.00 $120.00 $124.00 $130.00 $137.00 $142.00 $148.00 $155.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 $161.00 Standard Dev of Profit $4.00 $6.60 $7.20 $7.90 $8.70 $9.20 $9.60 $9.90 $10.30 $10.60 $11.10 $11.60 $12.00 $12.40 $13.00 $13.70 $14.20 $14.80 $15.50 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 $16.10 Random Number 0.109 0.970 0.095 0.042 0.704 0.888 0.876 0.331 0.939 0.304 0.047 0.767 0.497 0.956 0.317 0.955 0.255 0.108 0.654 0.375 0.708 0.844 0.334 0.751 0.319 0.540 0.813 0.458 0.256 0.882 Simulation Stay at end of year? Yes Yes #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Actual profit #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.80 Discounted profit #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0.85 0.90 Outputs NPV Years loyal 0.95 #NAME? #NAME? @RISK Output Results Name NPV Sim# 1 Min $41.76 Mean $187.97 Max $563.65 5% $58.70 95% $413.50 Errors 0 NPV 2 $49.57 $213.72 $568.24 $61.41 $445.10 0 NPV 3 $46.08 $252.91 $580.61 $63.66 $513.66 0 NPV 4 $47.86 $313.79 $599.47 $66.46 $558.84 0 NPV 5 $53.12 $407.33 $600.87 $79.26 $572.14 0 Years loyal 1 3 6 26 3 14 0 Years loyal 2 3 7 31 3 15 0 Years loyal 3 3 9 31 3 20 0 Years loyal 4 3 12 31 3 30 0 Years loyal 5 3 18 31 3 31 0 ...
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  • Spring '14
  • JaniceK.Winch

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