Outline for Midterm .docx - I. Crisis/Background a. Syrian...

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I.Crisis/Backgrounda.Syrian Governmenti.Syrian armyii.Lebanese Hezb'allahiii.Supported by Russia and Iranb.Opposition Groupsi.Free Syria Army (FSA)1.Supported by US, France and UKii.Islamist militiaiii.Kurdish militia1.Supported by US, France, UK2.Turkey is opposition/fights against Kurdsiv.ISISv.Turkey (accused of offering support to ISIS and Islamist militias)c.Aleppo/the Northi.Aleppo broke away and re-named the northern territories “Aleppo and Liberated Syria”(ALS)ii.ALS formed the National Assembly of Liberated Syria (the NALS) – parliamentary body1.Divided between:a.TheSyrian Secular Party (SSP): represents smaller non-sectarian Syrian politicalparties and fighting forces; andb.The Kurdish Freedom Movement (KFM): represents all northern Syria Kurds2.Someone assassinated Sharif el-Basha (leader of SSP), Speaker of the Assemblya.Rumors spread about if the assassin was sent by the KFM, Syriangovernment, etc.3.NALS was dissolved by the Deputy Speaker, KFM leader Mustafa al-Zaim4.New SSP leader, Walid ibn-Halab, re-activated militia and occupied the NALSbuildinga.Building is surrounded by troops loyal to al-Zaimb.Thousands have lost their lives in the crossfire and Northern Syria is againin a civil ward.The Diplomat’s situationi.Three months after assassinationii.My position: senior staff officer for UN secretary general’s special representative toNorthern Syria (Dr. Bella abd’al-Khalil, a diplomat from Tunisia)iii.Secretary General tasked us to:1.Sit down with the northern Syrians and help them rebuild their political unitywithout giving them the impression that the UN will recognize them as anindependent countryiv.Siege continues BUT both leaders pledged that we would have safe passage in Aleppowhen we arrivev.Each side pledged to meet with you and negotiate with the other side, as long as you arethere and advise both sidesII.Applicable theories/theoristsa.What needs to be done? (from Crocker)i.Need the following end games:1.A reasonable degree of stability in the underlying regional balance of power,both in reality and in the perceptions of leaders2.A stalemate in the immediate military equations on the ground
3.The strength, confidence and coherence of leadership in key capitals, so thateach could take big decisions in roughly the same timeframe4.The diplomatic skill to make the linkage formula come to life through a set ofmirror-image, conditional (yes...if) commitments5.

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Term
Spring
Professor
DR.CHIN
Tags
Syrian government, KFM

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