The Strategist 8 Lecture - The Strategist 8 Adam...

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Unformatted text preview: The Strategist 8 Adam Brandenburger J.P. Valles Professor, NYU Stern School of Business Distinguished Professor, NYU Polytechnic School of Engineering Member, NYU Institute for the Interdisciplinary Institute of Decision Making Associated Faculty Member, Center for Data Science “When I am ge9ng ready to reason with a man I spend one-­‐third of my Ame thinking about myself and what I am going to say, and two-­‐thirds thinking about him and what he is going to say.” 3/30/15 15:02 Image: Shutterstock 2 3/30/15 15:02 Permission sought from hJp://www.markspaneth.com 3 Theory of Mind task Error rate (%) Causal analysis task 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 Level of thinking 3/30/15 15:02 From: Dunbar, R., “Theory of Mind and the EvoluAon of Language,” in Hurford, J., Studdert-­‐Kennedy, M., and C. Knight (eds.), Approaches to the Evolu0on of Language: Social and Cogni0ve Bases, Cambridge 4 University Press, 1998, 92-­‐110; Bentall, R., Dunbar, R., and P. Kinderman, “Theory-­‐of-­‐Mind Deficits and Causal AJribuAons,” Bri0sh Journal of Psychology, 89, 1998, 191 ToM story: A burglar who has just robbed a shop is making his getaway. As he is running home, a policeman on his beat sees him drop his glove. He doesn’t know the man is a burglar, he just wants to tell him he dropped his glove. But when the policeman shouts out to the burglar, “Hey, you! Stop!”, the burglar turns round, see the policeman and gives himself up. He puts up his hands and admits that he did the break-in at the local shop. Question: Why did the burglar do that? Non-ToM story: Two enemy powers have been at war for a very long time. Each army has won several battles, but now the outcome could go either way. The forces are equally matched. However, the Blue army is stronger than the Yellow army in foot soldiers and artillery. But the Yellow army is stronger than the Blue army in air power. On the day of the final battle, which will decide the outcome of the war, there is heavy fog over the mountains where the fighting is about to occur. Lowlying clouds hang above the soldiers. By the end of the day the Blue army has won. Question: Why did the Blue army win? 3/30/15 15:02 From: Gallagher, H., F. Happé, N. Brunswick, P. Fletcher, U. Frith, and C. Frith, “Reading the Mind in Cartoons and 5 Stories: An fMRI Study of ‘Theory of Mind’ in Verbal and Nonverbal Tasks,” Neuropsychologia, 38, 2000, 11-­‐21 3/30/15 15:02 Gallagher, H., F. Happé, N. Brunswick, P. Fletcher, U. Frith, and C. Frith, op.cit. 6 Rank-­‐0 strategies for Ann Rank-­‐1 strategies for Ann Rank-­‐2 strategies for Ann Rank-­‐3 strategies for Ann Etc. Level-­‐0 strategies Level-­‐1 strategies Level-­‐2 strategies Etc. 3/30/15 15:02 7 100%# 80%# 70%# R3# 60%# 50%# R2# 40%# 30%# Propor%on'of'Subjects' 90%# R4# 20%# R1# 10%# R0# Orders'of'Ra%onality' 0%# 94 percent of the subjects engaged in first-­‐order reasoning, 72 percent in second-­‐order reasoning, 45 percent in third-­‐order reasoning, and 20 percent in fourth-­‐order reasoning. 3/30/15 15:02 From : Kneeland, T., “TesAng Behavioral Game Theory: Higher-­‐Order RaAonality and Consistent Beliefs,” 2013, hJp://terri.microeconomics.ca/research/jmp.pdf 8 The Social Brain Hypothesis Primates live in social groups Grooming serves to bond relaAonships Early hominid group size increases Grooming becomes impracAcal Language develops to facilitate bonding ToM develops to make language effecAve 3/30/15 15:02 From: Dunbar, R., “Theory of Mind and the EvoluAon of Language,” in Hurford, J., Studdert-­‐Kennedy, M., and C. Knight (eds.), Approaches to the Evolu0on of Language: Social and Cogni0ve Bases, Cambridge University Press, 1998, 92-­‐110 9 3/30/15 15:02 Image: hJp://pubpages.unh.edu/~jel/512/512-­‐04notes/Primates_R_social.htm; source: Dunbar, R., “Neocortex Size as a Constraint on Group Size in Primates,” Journal of Human Evolu0on, 20, 1992, 469-­‐493 10 Medial prefrontal cortex è Predict the subsequent behavior of other players, by asking how one might oneself subsequently act in their posiAons and then adjusAng these predicAons to take into account how one thinks their mental states (intenAons, desires, knowledge, and beliefs) differs from one’s own Temporal poles è Collect historical informaAon about the parAcular context being studied Posterior superior temporal sulcus è Collect data, based on various inputs, about the current behavior of the other players 3/30/15 15:02 hJp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1a/Gray728.svg/1024px-­‐Gray728.svg.png; Brandenburger A., “My Mind … or Your Mind,” course note, 01/14/15 11 The False Belief Task 3/30/15 15:02 Graphic: Baron-­‐Cohen, S., A. Leslie, and U. Frith, “Does the AuAsAc Child Have a ‘Theory of Mind?’” Cogni0on, 21, 1985, 37-­‐46 12 3/30/15 15:02 hJp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/98/CSI-­‐LV.main.jpg 13 A Ÿ > N A Ÿ > > Level 1 Expected event A B Unexpected action B Ÿ > Ÿ ∨ Level 1 A ∨ Level 1-­‐2 B A B Ÿ > Ÿ > > Level 1-­‐2 Unexpected event Ÿ > Ÿ A N Expected action N ∨ Level 2 CollaboraAon gone wrong A A B C Ÿ > Ÿ > Ÿ Level 2-­‐3 Ÿ > Ÿ > Ÿ Level 2-­‐3 Betrayal Unsuccessful collaboraAon with a third ∨ 3/30/15 15:02 ∨ Löwe, B., E. Pacuit, and S. Sanchit, “IdenAfying the Structure of a NarraAve Via an Agent-­‐Based Logic of Preferences and Beliefs: FormalizaAons of Episodes from CSI: Crime Scene InvesAgaAon™,” in Duvigneau, M., and D. Moldt (eds.), Proceedings of the FiBh Interna0onal Workshop on Modelling of Objects, Components and Agents – MOCA’09, Hamburg, 2009 14 CSI, Season 1, Episode 3: Chip Rundle and Laura Garris plan to fake a kidnapping and get a ransom from Laura’s husband. However, after the staged kidnapping, Chip turns on Laura and buries her in a crate in the Nevada desert. Based on some dirt on the bedroom carpet, the CSI unit manages to find Laura before she dies. In the meantime, Laura’s husband has paid the ransom. When he collects the ransom, Chip is arrested. Confronted with the facts, Laura does not tell the police that Chip was the kidnapper, but her voice is matched to the voice of the ransom phone call. The CSI unit decides to investigate further and finds that the evidence is not consistent with a real kidnapping. A blood test confirms that Laura was never drugged and leads to Laura’s arrest. C L C Ÿ > Ÿ > Ÿ Betrayal Unexpected event ∨ L > Ÿ > N ∨ CSI 3/30/15 15:02 Ÿ > Unexpected event N > Löwe, B., E. Pacuit, and S. Sanchit, op.cit. Expected event 15 “I understood it all. Frank knew, but Maxim did not know that he knew. And we all stood there, looking at one another, keeping up these little barriers between us.” -- From? 3/30/15 15:02 For more on ToM and ficAon, see hJp://www.onficAon.ca/search/label/Theory%20of%20mind 16 ...
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  • Spring '15
  • Adam
  • unexpected event, NYU Stern School, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY STERN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, Blue Army, J.P. Valles Professor, Associated Faculty Member

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