Psych chp. 2 - Heather Fackelman AP Psychology Module 2...

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Heather Fackelman AP Psychology Module 2: Research Strategies: How Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions I. Thinking Critically with Psychological Science A. The Limits of Intuition and Common Sense 1. advocates of “intuitive management” urge us to distrust statistical predators & tune into hunches when hiring, firing, & investing could lead us astray 2. notions of common sense err B. Did We Know It All Along? The Hindsight Bias 1. hindsight bias finding out that something has happened makes it seem inevitable 20/20 hindsight vision; “I knew it all along” 2. Paul Slovic & Baruch Fischhoff & Gordon Wood have shown how unanticipated scientific results & historical happenings can seem like common sense a. give half of members of group a purported psychological finding, other half opposite result b. tell first group “Psychologists have found out that separation weakens romantic attraction” Out of sight, out of mind they’ll argue that side c. tell second group “psychologists have found that separation strengthens romantic attraction” absence makes the heart grow fonder they’ll argue that side 3. Gary Wells & Amy Bradfield demonstrated hindsight bias after showing 352 Iowa University students grainy security video of man entering store just before murdering security guard a. photo spread from actual case, minus actual gunman’s photo, all made false identification b. those told they identified correctly more confident & were 4 times more likely to recall having great confidence earlier when making identification 4. errors in recollections & explanations show why we need psychological research asking people how & why they felt or acted the way they did can be misleading common sense isn’t wrong, because it’s after the fact 5. “You can observe a lot by watching” –Yogi Berra behavior watchers, surprising if psychology’s findings hadn’t been foreseen 6. intuition tells us that familiarity breeds contempt, dreams predict future, & emotional reactions coincide with menstrual phase available evidence suggests that these commonsense ideas are wrong C. Overconfidence 1. everyday thinking is limited not only by after-the-fact common sense but also by human tendency toward overconfidence think we know more than we do
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2. Robert Valone & associates had students predict at beginning of school year whether they would drop course, vote in upcoming election, call parents more than twice a month, & so forth a. On average, students felt 84% confident in predictions b. Later quizzes about actual behavior showed only correct 71% of time c. Self predictions erred 15% of time 3. Ohio State University psychologists Philip Tetlock collected experts’ predictions of political, economic, & military situations a. Invited expert professors, think-tank analysts, government experts, & journalists to project governance of Soviet Union or South Africa 5 years later, & rate how confident they felt b. Others did same for future of Canada c.
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  • Fall '07
  • Barbagallo
  • Psychology, Correlation and dependence, Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, Hindsight bias

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