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# hw6 - Burcu Yildiz Leon Zhu BUAD 311 311 Operations...

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Burcu Yildiz Leon Zhu BUAD 311 311 Operations Management Fall 2007 Homework 6: Forecasting Due 10/30/2007 1. The question asks to determine α and n. a. 2/ (n + 1) = α 2/ (15 + 1) = α 2/16 = α 0.125 = α b. 2/ (n + 1) = 0.2 0.2n + 0.2 = 2 1.8 = 0.2n n = 9 2. Question 18 on page 554 α = 0.1 δ = 0.2 γ = 0.3 trend est. = -500 level est. = 20500 seasonal est. = 1.15, 1.4, 0.95, 0.5 Trend T t = δ (prior trend) + (1 - δ ) (past trend estimator) = 0.2 (-3000) + (0.8) (-500) = -1000 Level L t = α (A t-1 / I t-1-N ) + (1- α )(L 1 + T t-1 ) = 0.1 (15000/0.5) + (0.9)(9000 + -3000) = 8400 Seasonal I t = γ (A t-1 / L 1 ) + (1 - γ ) (Past Seasonal Estimate) = 0.3(15000/9000) + (0.7)(0.5) = 0.85 Mean Demand in Season (19000 + 24000 + 15000) / 3 = 19333.3

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Burcu Yildiz Leon Zhu BUAD 311 Forecast F 1 = (L 1 – T 1 ) * I t-N = (8400 + 1000) * 0.85 = 7990 for season four this year 3. Camera question a. The question asks to calculate the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the demand for silver cameras in Week 10
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hw6 - Burcu Yildiz Leon Zhu BUAD 311 311 Operations...

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