Lecture 24 (November 25)

Lecture 24 (November 25) - Fluids Effects on Eqs o Dont...

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Fluids Effects on Eqs o Don’t know the fluid pressure in fault zones, which are absolutely key o Fluid pressure acts opposite to normal stress o Increase in fluid pressure reduces the effective normal stress σ N = Effective Normal Stress Earthquake Prediction o When? but we don’t know how to do this No reliable, temporal signal that will tell us Societal ramifications have an eq prediction that’s wrong can’t get away with it o What? what will the shaking be like Key piece of information needed by engineers to design buildings o Where? can’t do this specifically (yet) But can do it generally 99% of them will be on plate boundaries, and 99% of them will be on large, rapidly slipping faults o What is a prediction? Time—specified (relatively brief) time interval Place—where will eq occur (relatively small region) Magnitude—rough prediction of size Probability of occurrence At least some sense of physical basis for prediction
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Lecture 24 (November 25) - Fluids Effects on Eqs o Dont...

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