Final Review - Input Data Prior Probabilities of Existence of Woolly Mammoth Remains Does Contain Does Not Contain 0.50 0.50 Likelihoods of Local

Final Review - Input Data Prior Probabilities of Existence...

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Input Data Prior Probabilities of Existence of Woolly Mammoth Remains Does Contain Does Not Contain 0.50 0.50 Likelihoods of Local Natives Prediction, Given Actual Existence Does Contain Does Not Contain Predict Yes Predict No
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Inputs Stock 1 Stock 2 Stock 3 Covariances Stock 1 Stock 2 Stock 3 Mean return 12% 15% 20% Stock 1 Standard deviation of return 20% 30% 40% Stock 2 Stock 3 Correlations Stock 1 Stock 2 Stock 3 Stock 1 Stock 2 Stock 3 Decision Variables Fractions to invest Objective Portfolio Variance Portfolio Standard Deviation Covariance between asset 1 and asset 2 = correlation* std deviation of 1* std deviation of 2
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Sun Microsystems data Year Time indexSun Sales 2000 1 538 2001 2 1052 2002 3 1765 2003 4 2466 2004 5 3221 2005 6 3589 2006 7 4309 2007 8 4690 2008 9 5902 2009 10 7095 2010 11 8598 2011 12 9791 2012 13 11726 2013 14 15721 2014 15 18250
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Good T aste Bakery Cost data Demand distribution Unit cost $1.30 Demand Probability Unit price $2.75 100 0.05 Day-old price $1.00 200 0.20 Goodwill cost $0.50 300 0.30 400 0.30 Order quantity 500 0.15 Summary measures for simulation Possible order sizes to try 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Simulation
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