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jozsef_varadi.docx - Question 1 Vulnerability to Climate...

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Question 1Vulnerability to Climate Change and past emissionsBrazil contains 12% of the world’s forests and 35% of the world’s tropical rainforests (Amazon,Cerrado and Pantanal wetland) giving home to a fragile, biodiverse ecosystem and serving as crucialstores of GHG. Rising temperature contributes to the change of rainfall patterns, especially in thedrought-affected northeastern region of the country which results in irregular water supply (droughtsand floods). Less rainfall makes the forests increasingly vulnerable, with higher tree mortality and riskof forest fires. Forest fires(either spontaneous caused by climate change temperature rise, orintentional forest-burning to expand agricultural territories) release greenhouse gasses increasing theirconcentration in the atmosphere, and also decrease the forests’ sink capacity. The amount of absorbedCO2 lost/released from the Amazon rainforest is estimated to be 120 billion tons (until 2010, whichequals to total US carbon dioxide emission in a year) having significant impact on the carbon cycle ofthe planet. Agriculture suffers from droughts and floods, aggravating the risk of famines. Less rain alsoaffects the hydropower supply, that provides 80% of the electricity Brazil generates. Rising sea levelsthreaten coastal areas where the majority of the population and economic activities are concentrated,and the warming weather favours the proliferation of disease vectors such as mosquitoes (SciDev,BBC).Brazil grew to become the seventh largest emitter worldwide (fourth largest emitter among developingcountries). An important characteristic,emission intensityshows greenhouse gas emission (CO2e) permillion $GDP, unveiling a low energy sector emission contribution to total GHG emission in case ofBrazil, underlining the crucial role of irresponsible LULUCF in Brazil’s contribution to climate change(World Resources Institute).Brazil managed to shrink emissions by 41% between 2005 and 2012, by reducing deforestation. Thankstoresponsible LULUCF policies, deforestation fell by an average 16% per year between 2005 and2014 according to forest monitoring data collected by the federal government in Brazil. However,emissions from the energy and agriculture sectors have continued to rise, contributing to a considerablylarger share of Brazil’s overall emissions. Brazil’s emission peaked in 2004, and is rising again in thecontext of a growing population, rising GDP income per capita (growing energy demand) andincreasing deforestation since 2012 (Brazil Ministério M.A.).Brazil’s role in climate negotiationsBrazil can be considered as a significant party in the history of negotiations about climate change. Asthe country has ca. 60% of the Amazon Forest in its territory, the maintenance of which is a crucial

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