forecasting_assignment - criteria 0.66 b Find best weights...

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Forecasting Assignment Please refer to Forecasting.Xls file posted on Blackboard site (under course documents folder – excel file sub-folder). I. Use the following methods to forecast demand for room-nights for the month of October 2006 . a. Naïve method : 513 b. Moving average with 3 and 4 time periods : 664, 646 c. Weighted moving average with two time periods with weights: 0.7, 0.3: 569.2 d. Weighted moving average with three time periods with weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2: 622.5 e. Exponential smoothing with α = 0.65: 579.2 II. Error analysis (for methods used in section I) a. If bias is used as the error measure, which is the best forecasting method? : Naive b. If MAD is used as the error measure which is the best forecasting method?: Exponential Smoothing III. Finding best weights a. Find best α for exponential smoothing method if MAD is used as the evaluation
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Unformatted text preview: criteria. : 0.66 b. Find best weights for three period weighted moving average if Bias is used as the evaluation criteria. : 0.8, 0.1, 0.1 IV. Regression analysis Assuming that revenue is a function of Room-nights sold, develop a linear regression model. How good is this model? Using this model predict revenue if room-nights sold is 675. Y=95.55694X-10744.60 Bias:-$35.25 MAD: $3906.45 NOTE : ♦ This is an individual assignment – but student groups can work together if they so desire. However each student should complete the final version of the analysis themselves. ♦ You can upload the assignment directly to Blackboard – Digital Dropbox. ♦ Use different worksheet for each analysis. ♦ Create a summary worksheet which includes answers to all questions listed above....
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