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Notes (Week4)

# Notes (Week4) - Notes Tversky Kahneman 1974 I People rely...

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Notes I) People rely on heuristics to assess probabilities and place values on judgments II) Representativeness a. To what degree does A resemble (similar to) B? i. Used to determined if A originates from B b. Problems i. Ignores base-rate probabilities 1. Base-rate – known probabilities that may inform the probability of A actually originating from B ii. Ignores sample sizes 1. Evidence for a difference (more boys being born in a hospital in one day than girls) makes people form judgments (more boys are born in general than girls) regardless of sample size (the hospital was a small one where such chance inequalities are common) iii. Misconception of chance 1. People expect random events to resemble alternating events a. Ex – people see HTHTHH as more “random” than HHHTTT, when, in fact, the second one is more normally distributed than the first and the first contains too many alternations to probably be purely random b. People also think that is one evident has won out repeatedly, than the opposing event is “due” to win out soon even though the probability of both events remains constant iv. Illusion of validity 1. People base the validity of their predictions from the degree of representativeness

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Notes (Week4) - Notes Tversky Kahneman 1974 I People rely...

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